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Netherlands Eredivisie ·

Ajax 4–1 Heerenveen

Full time · half time 2–1 · season 2023/2024

Home ✓ 1.50 fair 1.98
Draw 4.75 fair 4.69
Away 6.00 fair 3.55
Under 2.5 2.88 fair 3.21
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.40 fair 1.45

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Ajax Heerenveen
14 Shots 12
8 Shots on target 3
5 Corners 8
10 Fouls 8
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (95 league matches this season so far).
Result Ajax to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.48
Expected goals 2.05 – 1.50
Home / Draw / Away
AjaxDrawHeerenveen
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
2–1 9.1% 1–1 8.8% 2–2 6.8%

Statistics 2023/2024, before this match

Ajax before this match, all matches
0.89points / match
1.67scored / match
2.33conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 9 played · 15:21
Heerenveen before this match, all matches
1.00points / match
1.30scored / match
2.10conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 10 played · 13:21
Ajax all matches all matches Heerenveen

Per match

1.67 Goals scored 1.30
2.33 Goals conceded 2.10
4.00 Total goals 3.40
15.67 Shots 12.90
5.89 Shots on target 4.70
14.33 Shots faced 13.00
7.56 Corners 5.00
3.89 Corners against 5.40
8.78 Fouls 8.80
1.67 Yellow cards 1.00
0.56 1st-half goals scored 0.80
1.11 1st-half goals conceded 1.00

How often Full Time

22% Wins 30%
22% Draws 10%
56% Losses 60%
89% Over 0.5 goals 100%
89% Over 1.5 goals 90%
78% Over 2.5 goals 70%
67% Over 3.5 goals 40%
33% Over 4.5 goals 20%
22% Over 5.5 goals 10%
67% Both teams scored 50%
22% Clean sheets 20%
22% Failed to score 30%

How often Half Time

11% Wins 20%
44% Draws 30%
44% Losses 50%
78% Over 0.5 goals 80%
56% Over 1.5 goals 60%
33% Over 2.5 goals 30%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Ajax all matches
Heerenveen all matches
Ajax before this match, at home
1.50points / match
1.75scored / match
1.75conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 4 played · 7:7
Heerenveen before this match, away
0.60points / match
1.00scored / match
2.60conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 5 played · 5:13
Ajax at home away Heerenveen

Per match

1.75 Goals scored 1.00
1.75 Goals conceded 2.60
3.50 Total goals 3.60
19.00 Shots 9.20
6.50 Shots on target 2.80
10.00 Shots faced 15.20
8.00 Corners 3.40
3.00 Corners against 7.60
9.75 Fouls 10.00
1.75 Yellow cards 0.60
0.25 1st-half goals scored 0.40
1.25 1st-half goals conceded 1.20

How often Full Time

50% Wins 20%
0% Draws 0%
50% Losses 80%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
100% Over 1.5 goals 80%
75% Over 2.5 goals 60%
50% Over 3.5 goals 40%
25% Over 4.5 goals 40%
0% Over 5.5 goals 20%
50% Both teams scored 40%
25% Clean sheets 20%
25% Failed to score 40%

How often Half Time

0% Wins 0%
50% Draws 40%
50% Losses 60%
75% Over 0.5 goals 60%
50% Over 1.5 goals 40%
25% Over 2.5 goals 40%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Ajax at home
Heerenveen away

Last 10 matches before this match

Ajax all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
02.11.23 Ajax – Volendam 2–0 (0–0) 1.306.009.50 1.29 3.60
29.10.23 PSV Eindhoven – Ajax 5–2 (1–2) 1.305.759.00 1.33 3.40
22.10.23 Utrecht – Ajax 4–3 (1–0) 3.903.701.91 1.53 2.40
08.10.23 Ajax – AZ Alkmaar 1–2 (0–1) 2.253.802.90 1.53 2.40
27.09.23 Ajax – Feyenoord 0–4 (0–3) 2.803.752.38 1.53 2.40
17.09.23 Twente – Ajax 3–1 (2–1) 2.603.502.60 1.60 2.30
03.09.23 For Sittard – Ajax 0–0 (0–0) 6.505.501.40 1.40 2.88
19.08.23 Excelsior – Ajax 2–2 (1–1) 10.006.501.25 1.29 3.60
12.08.23 Ajax – Heracles 4–1 (1–1) 1.207.0013.00 1.33 3.40
28.05.23 Twente – Ajax 3–1 (0–1) 4.004.201.75 1.44 2.70

Heerenveen all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
28.10.23 Heerenveen – Heracles 3–0 (2–0) 1.953.753.75 1.65 2.20
21.10.23 AZ Alkmaar – Heerenveen 3–0 (1–0) 1.295.7510.00 1.53 2.40
07.10.23 Heerenveen – Nijmegen 1–1 (1–1) 2.153.603.20 1.67 2.15
30.09.23 Twente – Heerenveen 1–0 (0–0) 1.335.508.50 1.44 2.70
23.09.23 Heerenveen – Excelsior 0–3 (0–2) 1.674.005.00 1.53 2.40
16.09.23 Feyenoord – Heerenveen 6–1 (3–1) 1.256.0013.00 1.36 3.10
02.09.23 Go Ahead Eagles – Heerenveen 3–2 (2–1) 2.253.603.00 1.62 2.25
27.08.23 Heerenveen – Sparta Rotterdam 1–3 (0–1) 2.253.802.80 1.67 2.15
20.08.23 Utrecht – Heerenveen 0–2 (0–0) 1.803.754.33 1.62 2.25
12.08.23 Heerenveen – Waalwijk 3–1 (3–0) 1.734.004.50 1.57 2.35

Ajax at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
02.11.23 Ajax – Volendam 2–0 (0–0) 1.306.009.50 1.29 3.60
08.10.23 Ajax – AZ Alkmaar 1–2 (0–1) 2.253.802.90 1.53 2.40
27.09.23 Ajax – Feyenoord 0–4 (0–3) 2.803.752.38 1.53 2.40
12.08.23 Ajax – Heracles 4–1 (1–1) 1.207.0013.00 1.33 3.40
21.05.23 Ajax – Utrecht 3–1 (1–0) 1.296.0010.00 1.36 3.10
06.05.23 Ajax – AZ Alkmaar 0–0 (0–0) 1.574.505.25 1.53 2.40
16.04.23 Ajax – FC Emmen 3–1 (2–0) 1.138.5021.00 1.30 3.50
09.04.23 Ajax – For Sittard 4–0 (2–0) 1.1310.0015.00 1.29 3.60
19.03.23 Ajax – Feyenoord 2–3 (2–1) 1.734.334.00 1.57 2.35
05.03.23 Ajax – Nijmegen 1–0 (0–0) 1.226.5011.00 1.40 2.88

Heerenveen away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
21.10.23 AZ Alkmaar – Heerenveen 3–0 (1–0) 1.295.7510.00 1.53 2.40
30.09.23 Twente – Heerenveen 1–0 (0–0) 1.335.508.50 1.44 2.70
16.09.23 Feyenoord – Heerenveen 6–1 (3–1) 1.256.0013.00 1.36 3.10
02.09.23 Go Ahead Eagles – Heerenveen 3–2 (2–1) 2.253.603.00 1.62 2.25
20.08.23 Utrecht – Heerenveen 0–2 (0–0) 1.803.754.33 1.62 2.25
21.05.23 PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen 3–3 (1–2) 1.206.5015.00 1.33 3.40
06.05.23 Nijmegen – Heerenveen 2–3 (1–1) 2.103.403.50 1.75 2.05
15.04.23 Sparta Rotterdam – Heerenveen 4–0 (1–0) 2.303.253.20 2.05 1.75
01.04.23 AZ Alkmaar – Heerenveen 1–1 (0–1) 1.504.206.50 1.67 2.15
19.03.23 Groningen – Heerenveen 0–2 (0–2) 2.703.402.55 2.00 1.85

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Ajax winsDrawsHeerenveen wins
4matches
4.50goals / match
75%over 2.5
25%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
12.03.23N1 Heerenveen – Ajax 2–4 (1–3) 6.505.001.44 1.53 2.40
10.09.22N1 Ajax – Heerenveen 5–0 (2–0) 1.188.0012.00 1.28 3.60
11.05.22N1 Ajax – Heerenveen 5–0 (3–0) 1.149.0015.00 1.25 4.00
16.10.21N1 Heerenveen – Ajax 0–2 (0–1) 11.005.501.20 1.33 3.40

Netherlands Eredivisie table 2023/2024, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 PSV Eindhoven 11 11 0 0 41 5 +36 33
2 Feyenoord 11 8 2 1 35 9 +26 26
3 AZ Alkmaar 10 8 2 0 26 5 +21 26
4 Twente 11 8 2 1 22 8 +14 26
5 Go Ahead Eagles 11 5 3 3 22 16 +6 18
6 Sparta Rotterdam 10 4 3 3 12 13 -1 15
7 Excelsior 11 3 5 3 18 19 -1 14
8 Zwolle 11 4 2 5 14 17 -3 14
9 Heracles 11 3 3 5 14 28 -14 12
10 Nijmegen 10 2 4 4 17 19 -2 10
11 Heerenveen 10 3 1 6 13 21 -8 10
12 For Sittard 11 2 4 5 8 19 -11 10
13 Almere City 10 2 3 5 8 19 -11 9
14 Waalwijk 10 3 0 7 8 19 -11 9
15 Ajax 9 2 2 5 15 21 -6 8
16 Volendam 11 2 2 7 14 24 -10 8
17 Utrecht 11 2 2 7 9 21 -12 8
18 Vitesse 11 2 2 7 8 21 -13 8
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 PSV Eindhoven 6 6 0 0 20 4 +16 18
2 Go Ahead Eagles 6 5 1 0 19 4 +15 16
3 Twente 5 5 0 0 10 3 +7 15
4 Feyenoord 5 4 1 0 19 3 +16 13
5 AZ Alkmaar 5 4 1 0 15 2 +13 13
6 Heracles 6 3 1 2 10 14 -4 10
7 Nijmegen 6 2 2 2 14 11 +3 8
8 For Sittard 5 2 2 1 5 5 0 8
9 Sparta Rotterdam 5 2 2 1 6 7 -1 8
10 Heerenveen 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
11 Volendam 5 2 1 2 7 7 0 7
12 Excelsior 6 1 4 1 9 10 -1 7
13 Zwolle 6 2 1 3 5 8 -3 7
14 Ajax 4 2 0 2 7 7 0 6
15 Waalwijk 5 2 0 3 5 10 -5 6
16 Utrecht 5 1 1 3 6 13 -7 4
17 Almere City 5 1 1 3 3 10 -7 4
18 Vitesse 5 0 2 3 2 8 -6 2
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 PSV Eindhoven 5 5 0 0 21 1 +20 15
2 Feyenoord 6 4 1 1 16 6 +10 13
3 AZ Alkmaar 5 4 1 0 11 3 +8 13
4 Twente 6 3 2 1 12 5 +7 11
5 Excelsior 5 2 1 2 9 9 0 7
6 Zwolle 5 2 1 2 9 9 0 7
7 Sparta Rotterdam 5 2 1 2 6 6 0 7
8 Vitesse 6 2 0 4 6 13 -7 6
9 Almere City 5 1 2 2 5 9 -4 5
10 Utrecht 6 1 1 4 3 8 -5 4
11 Waalwijk 5 1 0 4 3 9 -6 3
12 Heerenveen 5 1 0 4 5 13 -8 3
13 Nijmegen 4 0 2 2 3 8 -5 2
14 Ajax 5 0 2 3 8 14 -6 2
15 Go Ahead Eagles 5 0 2 3 3 12 -9 2
16 Heracles 5 0 2 3 4 14 -10 2
17 For Sittard 6 0 2 4 3 14 -11 2
18 Volendam 6 0 1 5 7 17 -10 1

Ajax   Heerenveen

Under / Over goals 2023/2024, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 PSV Eindhoven 11 1 10 3.7 0.5 11 0 0 41 5 33
2 9 Heracles 11 1 10 1.3 2.5 3 3 5 14 28 12
3 2 Feyenoord 11 2 9 3.2 0.8 8 2 1 35 9 26
4 5 Go Ahead Eagles 11 3 8 2.0 1.5 5 3 3 22 16 18
5 7 Excelsior 11 3 8 1.6 1.7 3 5 3 18 19 14
6 16 Volendam 11 3 8 1.3 2.2 2 2 7 14 24 8
7 10 Nijmegen 10 3 7 1.7 1.9 2 4 4 17 19 10
8 11 Heerenveen 10 3 7 1.3 2.1 3 1 6 13 21 10
9 12 For Sittard 11 4 7 0.7 1.7 2 4 5 8 19 10
10 15 Ajax 9 2 7 1.7 2.3 2 2 5 15 21 8
11 3 AZ Alkmaar 10 4 6 2.6 0.5 8 2 0 26 5 26
12 4 Twente 11 5 6 2.0 0.7 8 2 1 22 8 26
13 8 Zwolle 11 5 6 1.3 1.5 4 2 5 14 17 14
14 14 Waalwijk 10 4 6 0.8 1.9 3 0 7 8 19 9
15 6 Sparta Rotterdam 10 5 5 1.2 1.3 4 3 3 12 13 15
16 13 Almere City 10 5 5 0.8 1.9 2 3 5 8 19 9
17 18 Vitesse 11 6 5 0.7 1.9 2 2 7 8 21 8
18 17 Utrecht 11 7 4 0.8 1.9 2 2 7 9 21 8
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 9 Heracles 6 0 6 1.7 2.3 3 1 2 10 14 10
2 1 PSV Eindhoven 6 1 5 3.3 0.7 6 0 0 20 4 18
3 5 Go Ahead Eagles 6 1 5 3.2 0.7 5 1 0 19 4 16
4 10 Nijmegen 6 1 5 2.3 1.8 2 2 2 14 11 8
5 2 Feyenoord 5 1 4 3.8 0.6 4 1 0 19 3 13
6 7 Excelsior 6 2 4 1.5 1.7 1 4 1 9 10 7
7 11 Heerenveen 5 1 4 1.6 1.6 2 1 2 8 8 7
8 14 Waalwijk 5 1 4 1.0 2.0 2 0 3 5 10 6
9 3 AZ Alkmaar 5 2 3 3.0 0.4 4 1 0 15 2 13
10 4 Twente 5 2 3 2.0 0.6 5 0 0 10 3 15
11 12 For Sittard 5 2 3 1.0 1.0 2 2 1 5 5 8
12 13 Almere City 5 2 3 0.6 2.0 1 1 3 3 10 4
13 15 Ajax 4 1 3 1.8 1.8 2 0 2 7 7 6
14 16 Volendam 5 2 3 1.4 1.4 2 1 2 7 7 7
15 6 Sparta Rotterdam 5 3 2 1.2 1.4 2 2 1 6 7 8
16 8 Zwolle 6 4 2 0.8 1.3 2 1 3 5 8 7
17 17 Utrecht 5 3 2 1.2 2.6 1 1 3 6 13 4
18 18 Vitesse 5 4 1 0.4 1.6 0 2 3 2 8 2
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 PSV Eindhoven 5 0 5 4.2 0.2 5 0 0 21 1 15
2 2 Feyenoord 6 1 5 2.7 1.0 4 1 1 16 6 13
3 16 Volendam 6 1 5 1.2 2.8 0 1 5 7 17 1
4 7 Excelsior 5 1 4 1.8 1.8 2 1 2 9 9 7
5 8 Zwolle 5 1 4 1.8 1.8 2 1 2 9 9 7
6 9 Heracles 5 1 4 0.8 2.8 0 2 3 4 14 2
7 12 For Sittard 6 2 4 0.5 2.3 0 2 4 3 14 2
8 15 Ajax 5 1 4 1.6 2.8 0 2 3 8 14 2
9 18 Vitesse 6 2 4 1.0 2.2 2 0 4 6 13 6
10 3 AZ Alkmaar 5 2 3 2.2 0.6 4 1 0 11 3 13
11 4 Twente 6 3 3 2.0 0.8 3 2 1 12 5 11
12 5 Go Ahead Eagles 5 2 3 0.6 2.4 0 2 3 3 12 2
13 6 Sparta Rotterdam 5 2 3 1.2 1.2 2 1 2 6 6 7
14 11 Heerenveen 5 2 3 1.0 2.6 1 0 4 5 13 3
15 10 Nijmegen 4 2 2 0.8 2.0 0 2 2 3 8 2
16 13 Almere City 5 3 2 1.0 1.8 1 2 2 5 9 5
17 14 Waalwijk 5 3 2 0.6 1.8 1 0 4 3 9 3
18 17 Utrecht 6 4 2 0.5 1.3 1 1 4 3 8 4

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51