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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
Spain La Liga ·

Real Madrid 4–1 Villarreal

Full time · half time 2–0 · season 2023/2024

Home ✓ 1.29 fair 1.58
Draw 6.00 fair 4.92
Away 9.00 fair 6.04
Under 2.5 2.88 fair 2.41
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.40 fair 1.71

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Real Madrid Villarreal
22 Shots 3
9 Shots on target 1
11 Corners 0
14 Fouls 12
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (167 league matches this season so far).
Result Real Madrid to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.85
Expected goals 2.08 – 0.96
Home / Draw / Away
Real MadridDrawVillarreal
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
2–0 10.4% 1–0 10% 2–1 9.9%

Statistics 2023/2024, before this match

Real Madrid before this match, all matches
2.44points / match
2.13scored / match
0.63conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 16 played · 34:10
Villarreal before this match, all matches
1.00points / match
1.38scored / match
1.81conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 16 played · 22:29
Real Madrid all matches all matches Villarreal

Per match

2.13 Goals scored 1.38
0.63 Goals conceded 1.81
2.75 Total goals 3.19
16.69 Shots 11.44
6.38 Shots on target 4.13
11.31 Shots faced 16.19
6.06 Corners 5.19
3.63 Corners against 4.75
10.56 Fouls 12.88
1.81 Yellow cards 2.88
0.75 1st-half goals scored 0.56
0.38 1st-half goals conceded 1.06

How often Full Time

75% Wins 25%
19% Draws 25%
6% Losses 50%
94% Over 0.5 goals 94%
88% Over 1.5 goals 88%
56% Over 2.5 goals 69%
25% Over 3.5 goals 38%
6% Over 4.5 goals 19%
6% Over 5.5 goals 6%
50% Both teams scored 81%
50% Clean sheets 13%
6% Failed to score 13%

How often Half Time

44% Wins 6%
31% Draws 63%
25% Losses 31%
75% Over 0.5 goals 63%
31% Over 1.5 goals 50%
6% Over 2.5 goals 31%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Real Madrid all matches
Villarreal all matches
Real Madrid before this match, at home
2.71points / match
2.43scored / match
0.43conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 7 played · 17:3
Villarreal before this match, away
1.29points / match
1.14scored / match
1.43conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 7 played · 8:10
Real Madrid at home away Villarreal

Per match

2.43 Goals scored 1.14
0.43 Goals conceded 1.43
2.86 Total goals 2.57
18.86 Shots 8.57
7.71 Shots on target 4.00
8.43 Shots faced 17.14
6.86 Corners 4.00
2.14 Corners against 5.57
9.71 Fouls 13.43
1.86 Yellow cards 3.29
0.71 1st-half goals scored 0.86
0.29 1st-half goals conceded 0.86

How often Full Time

86% Wins 29%
14% Draws 43%
0% Losses 29%
86% Over 0.5 goals 86%
86% Over 1.5 goals 71%
57% Over 2.5 goals 43%
29% Over 3.5 goals 43%
14% Over 4.5 goals 14%
14% Over 5.5 goals 0%
43% Both teams scored 71%
57% Clean sheets 29%
14% Failed to score 14%

How often Half Time

57% Wins 14%
14% Draws 71%
29% Losses 14%
86% Over 0.5 goals 57%
14% Over 1.5 goals 57%
0% Over 2.5 goals 29%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Real Madrid at home
Villarreal away

Last 10 matches before this match

Real Madrid all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.12.23 Betis – Real Madrid 1–1 (0–0) 4.203.801.80 1.73 2.08
02.12.23 Real Madrid – Granada 2–0 (1–0) 1.178.0015.00 1.33 3.40
26.11.23 Cadiz – Real Madrid 0–3 (0–1) 6.004.501.50 1.73 2.08
11.11.23 Real Madrid – Valencia 5–1 (2–0) 1.335.508.50 1.60 2.30
05.11.23 Real Madrid – Vallecano 0–0 (0–0) 1.295.5012.00 1.53 2.40
28.10.23 Barcelona – Real Madrid 1–2 (1–0) 2.553.602.60 1.57 2.35
21.10.23 Sevilla – Real Madrid 1–1 (0–0) 4.203.601.85 1.67 2.15
07.10.23 Real Madrid – Osasuna 4–0 (1–0) 1.296.009.50 1.57 2.35
30.09.23 Girona – Real Madrid 0–3 (0–2) 3.504.001.95 1.60 2.30
27.09.23 Real Madrid – Las Palmas 2–0 (1–0) 1.207.0011.00 1.44 2.75

Villarreal all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.12.23 Villarreal – Sociedad 0–3 (0–3) 3.403.402.10 2.00 1.90
03.12.23 Sevilla – Villarreal 1–1 (0–0) 2.003.603.60 1.67 2.15
26.11.23 Villarreal – Osasuna 3–1 (0–0) 2.153.503.30 1.88 2.02
12.11.23 Ath Madrid – Villarreal 3–1 (1–1) 1.365.507.50 1.50 2.50
05.11.23 Villarreal – Ath Bilbao 2–3 (0–3) 2.803.602.40 1.84 2.06
30.10.23 Granada – Villarreal 2–3 (2–3) 3.103.502.25 1.70 2.10
22.10.23 Villarreal – Alaves 1–1 (0–0) 1.703.755.00 1.97 1.93
08.10.23 Villarreal – Las Palmas 1–2 (0–1) 1.604.005.75 1.73 2.08
30.09.23 Getafe – Villarreal 0–0 (0–0) 2.903.102.60 2.08 1.73
27.09.23 Villarreal – Girona 1–2 (0–0) 2.253.503.10 1.57 2.38

Real Madrid at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
02.12.23 Real Madrid – Granada 2–0 (1–0) 1.178.0015.00 1.33 3.40
11.11.23 Real Madrid – Valencia 5–1 (2–0) 1.335.508.50 1.60 2.30
05.11.23 Real Madrid – Vallecano 0–0 (0–0) 1.295.5012.00 1.53 2.40
07.10.23 Real Madrid – Osasuna 4–0 (1–0) 1.296.009.50 1.57 2.35
27.09.23 Real Madrid – Las Palmas 2–0 (1–0) 1.207.0011.00 1.44 2.75
17.09.23 Real Madrid – Sociedad 2–1 (0–1) 1.654.005.00 1.90 2.00
02.09.23 Real Madrid – Getafe 2–1 (0–1) 1.335.259.50 1.94 1.96
04.06.23 Real Madrid – Ath Bilbao 1–1 (0–0) 1.913.753.75 1.62 2.30
24.05.23 Real Madrid – Vallecano 2–1 (1–0) 1.624.005.25 1.62 2.30
13.05.23 Real Madrid – Getafe 1–0 (0–0) 1.554.006.50 1.96 1.94

Villarreal away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
03.12.23 Sevilla – Villarreal 1–1 (0–0) 2.003.603.60 1.67 2.15
12.11.23 Ath Madrid – Villarreal 3–1 (1–1) 1.365.507.50 1.50 2.50
30.10.23 Granada – Villarreal 2–3 (2–3) 3.103.502.25 1.70 2.10
30.09.23 Getafe – Villarreal 0–0 (0–0) 2.903.102.60 2.08 1.73
24.09.23 Vallecano – Villarreal 1–1 (1–1) 2.503.502.63 1.73 2.10
01.09.23 Cadiz – Villarreal 3–1 (2–1) 3.403.402.15 1.89 2.01
18.08.23 Mallorca – Villarreal 0–1 (0–0) 2.803.202.60 2.30 1.62
28.05.23 Vallecano – Villarreal 2–1 (0–0) 3.003.602.20 1.67 2.20
20.05.23 Girona – Villarreal 1–2 (1–1) 2.803.752.30 1.62 2.30
03.05.23 Valencia – Villarreal 1–1 (0–0) 2.753.302.55 1.89 2.01

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Real Madrid winsDrawsVillarreal wins
4matches
2.00goals / match
50%over 2.5
50%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
08.04.23SP1 Real Madrid – Villarreal 2–3 (1–1) 1.534.335.75 1.62 2.30
07.01.23SP1 Villarreal – Real Madrid 2–1 (0–0) 3.253.802.05 1.62 2.30
12.02.22SP1 Villarreal – Real Madrid 0–0 (0–0) 2.503.502.70 1.80 2.00
25.09.21SP1 Real Madrid – Villarreal 0–0 (0–0) 1.504.755.75 1.57 2.37

Spain La Liga table 2023/2024, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Girona 16 13 2 1 38 20 +18 41
2 Real Madrid 16 12 3 1 34 10 +24 39
3 Barcelona 17 10 5 2 31 19 +12 35
4 Ath Madrid 16 11 1 4 32 16 +16 34
5 Ath Bilbao 17 9 5 3 33 19 +14 32
6 Sociedad 17 8 6 3 29 18 +11 30
7 Betis 17 6 9 2 19 17 +2 27
8 Getafe 17 6 7 4 21 20 +1 25
9 Las Palmas 17 7 4 6 15 14 +1 25
10 Valencia 17 5 5 7 18 22 -4 20
11 Vallecano 17 4 8 5 16 23 -7 20
12 Osasuna 17 5 4 8 19 26 -7 19
13 Alaves 16 4 4 8 14 20 -6 16
14 Villarreal 16 4 4 8 22 29 -7 16
15 Mallorca 17 2 9 6 14 20 -6 15
16 Cadiz 17 2 8 7 14 24 -10 14
17 Sevilla 16 2 7 7 20 24 -4 13
18 Celta 17 2 7 8 16 25 -9 13
19 Granada 17 1 5 11 20 37 -17 8
20 Almeria 17 0 5 12 17 39 -22 5
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Ath Madrid 8 8 0 0 19 8 +11 24
2 Barcelona 9 7 0 2 18 9 +9 21
3 Ath Bilbao 9 6 2 1 24 11 +13 20
4 Real Madrid 7 6 1 0 17 3 +14 19
5 Girona 8 6 1 1 18 10 +8 19
6 Betis 8 5 3 0 11 3 +8 18
7 Sociedad 9 5 3 1 17 10 +7 18
8 Getafe 8 5 3 0 9 4 +5 18
9 Las Palmas 8 4 3 1 9 5 +4 15
10 Valencia 8 4 2 2 9 4 +5 14
11 Alaves 8 4 1 3 10 10 0 13
12 Sevilla 9 2 4 3 13 13 0 10
13 Cadiz 8 2 4 2 8 9 -1 10
14 Mallorca 8 1 6 1 5 5 0 9
15 Osasuna 9 2 3 4 8 12 -4 9
16 Vallecano 8 1 5 2 9 15 -6 8
17 Granada 8 1 4 3 12 16 -4 7
18 Villarreal 9 2 1 6 14 19 -5 7
19 Celta 9 1 4 4 6 12 -6 7
20 Almeria 9 0 4 5 10 18 -8 4
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Girona 8 7 1 0 20 10 +10 22
2 Real Madrid 9 6 2 1 17 7 +10 20
3 Barcelona 8 3 5 0 13 10 +3 14
4 Sociedad 8 3 3 2 12 8 +4 12
5 Ath Bilbao 8 3 3 2 9 8 +1 12
6 Vallecano 9 3 3 3 7 8 -1 12
7 Ath Madrid 8 3 1 4 13 8 +5 10
8 Osasuna 8 3 1 4 11 14 -3 10
9 Las Palmas 9 3 1 5 6 9 -3 10
10 Villarreal 7 2 3 2 8 10 -2 9
11 Betis 9 1 6 2 8 14 -6 9
12 Getafe 9 1 4 4 12 16 -4 7
13 Celta 8 1 3 4 10 13 -3 6
14 Mallorca 9 1 3 5 9 15 -6 6
15 Valencia 9 1 3 5 9 18 -9 6
16 Cadiz 9 0 4 5 6 15 -9 4
17 Sevilla 7 0 3 4 7 11 -4 3
18 Alaves 8 0 3 5 4 10 -6 3
19 Granada 9 0 1 8 8 21 -13 1
20 Almeria 8 0 1 7 7 21 -14 1

Real Madrid   Villarreal

Under / Over goals 2023/2024, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 20 Almeria 17 5 12 1.0 2.3 0 5 12 17 39 5
2 1 Girona 16 5 11 2.4 1.2 13 2 1 38 20 41
3 4 Ath Madrid 16 5 11 2.0 1.0 11 1 4 32 16 34
4 14 Villarreal 16 5 11 1.4 1.8 4 4 8 22 29 16
5 2 Real Madrid 16 7 9 2.1 0.6 12 3 1 34 10 39
6 3 Barcelona 17 8 9 1.8 1.1 10 5 2 31 19 35
7 5 Ath Bilbao 17 8 9 1.9 1.1 9 5 3 33 19 32
8 6 Sociedad 17 8 9 1.7 1.1 8 6 3 29 18 30
9 8 Getafe 17 9 8 1.2 1.2 6 7 4 21 20 25
10 10 Valencia 17 9 8 1.1 1.3 5 5 7 18 22 20
11 17 Sevilla 16 8 8 1.2 1.5 2 7 7 20 24 13
12 19 Granada 17 9 8 1.2 2.2 1 5 11 20 37 8
13 12 Osasuna 17 10 7 1.1 1.5 5 4 8 19 26 19
14 11 Vallecano 17 11 6 0.9 1.4 4 8 5 16 23 20
15 18 Celta 17 11 6 0.9 1.5 2 7 8 16 25 13
16 7 Betis 17 12 5 1.1 1.0 6 9 2 19 17 27
17 16 Cadiz 17 12 5 0.8 1.4 2 8 7 14 24 14
18 9 Las Palmas 17 13 4 0.9 0.8 7 4 6 15 14 25
19 13 Alaves 16 12 4 0.9 1.2 4 4 8 14 20 16
20 15 Mallorca 17 13 4 0.8 1.2 2 9 6 14 20 15
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 14 Villarreal 9 1 8 1.6 2.1 2 1 6 14 19 7
2 4 Ath Madrid 8 1 7 2.4 1.0 8 0 0 19 8 24
3 5 Ath Bilbao 9 2 7 2.7 1.2 6 2 1 24 11 20
4 20 Almeria 9 3 6 1.1 2.0 0 4 5 10 18 4
5 1 Girona 8 3 5 2.2 1.2 6 1 1 18 10 19
6 3 Barcelona 9 4 5 2.0 1.0 7 0 2 18 9 21
7 17 Sevilla 9 4 5 1.4 1.4 2 4 3 13 13 10
8 2 Real Madrid 7 3 4 2.4 0.4 6 1 0 17 3 19
9 6 Sociedad 9 5 4 1.9 1.1 5 3 1 17 10 18
10 11 Vallecano 8 4 4 1.1 1.9 1 5 2 9 15 8
11 19 Granada 8 4 4 1.5 2.0 1 4 3 12 16 7
12 16 Cadiz 8 5 3 1.0 1.1 2 4 2 8 9 10
13 7 Betis 8 6 2 1.4 0.4 5 3 0 11 3 18
14 8 Getafe 8 6 2 1.1 0.5 5 3 0 9 4 18
15 9 Las Palmas 8 6 2 1.1 0.6 4 3 1 9 5 15
16 10 Valencia 8 6 2 1.1 0.5 4 2 2 9 4 14
17 12 Osasuna 9 7 2 0.9 1.3 2 3 4 8 12 9
18 13 Alaves 8 6 2 1.2 1.2 4 1 3 10 10 13
19 18 Celta 9 7 2 0.7 1.3 1 4 4 6 12 7
20 15 Mallorca 8 7 1 0.6 0.6 1 6 1 5 5 9
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 Girona 8 2 6 2.5 1.2 7 1 0 20 10 22
2 8 Getafe 9 3 6 1.3 1.8 1 4 4 12 16 7
3 10 Valencia 9 3 6 1.0 2.0 1 3 5 9 18 6
4 20 Almeria 8 2 6 0.9 2.6 0 1 7 7 21 1
5 2 Real Madrid 9 4 5 1.9 0.8 6 2 1 17 7 20
6 6 Sociedad 8 3 5 1.5 1.0 3 3 2 12 8 12
7 12 Osasuna 8 3 5 1.4 1.8 3 1 4 11 14 10
8 3 Barcelona 8 4 4 1.6 1.2 3 5 0 13 10 14
9 4 Ath Madrid 8 4 4 1.6 1.0 3 1 4 13 8 10
10 18 Celta 8 4 4 1.2 1.6 1 3 4 10 13 6
11 19 Granada 9 5 4 0.9 2.3 0 1 8 8 21 1
12 7 Betis 9 6 3 0.9 1.6 1 6 2 8 14 9
13 14 Villarreal 7 4 3 1.1 1.4 2 3 2 8 10 9
14 15 Mallorca 9 6 3 1.0 1.7 1 3 5 9 15 6
15 17 Sevilla 7 4 3 1.0 1.6 0 3 4 7 11 3
16 5 Ath Bilbao 8 6 2 1.1 1.0 3 3 2 9 8 12
17 9 Las Palmas 9 7 2 0.7 1.0 3 1 5 6 9 10
18 11 Vallecano 9 7 2 0.8 0.9 3 3 3 7 8 12
19 13 Alaves 8 6 2 0.5 1.2 0 3 5 4 10 3
20 16 Cadiz 9 7 2 0.7 1.7 0 4 5 6 15 4

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 30 Oct 2026, 22:44