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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
Italy Serie A ·

Milan 2–1 Fiorentina

Full time · half time 1–1 · season 2022/2023

Home ✓ 1.70 fair 1.90
Draw 3.80 fair 4.23
Away 5.00 fair 4.23
Under 2.5 2.00 fair 2.16
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.90 fair 1.86

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Milan Fiorentina
12 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 5
5 Corners 7
13 Fouls 11
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (148 league matches this season so far).
Result Milan to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.83
Expected goals 1.74 – 1.09
Home / Draw / Away
MilanDrawFiorentina
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.2% 1–0 10.3% 2–1 9.7%

Statistics 2022/2023, before this match

Milan before this match, all matches
2.14points / match
1.93scored / match
1.00conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 14 played · 27:14
Fiorentina before this match, all matches
1.36points / match
1.21scored / match
1.29conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 14 played · 17:18
Milan all matches all matches Fiorentina

Per match

1.93 Goals scored 1.21
1.00 Goals conceded 1.29
2.93 Total goals 2.50
17.00 Shots 15.93
5.29 Shots on target 4.93
11.29 Shots faced 8.86
4.86 Corners 6.43
3.64 Corners against 2.93
12.00 Fouls 13.29
2.64 Yellow cards 2.43
0.71 1st-half goals scored 0.57
0.50 1st-half goals conceded 0.64

How often Full Time

64% Wins 36%
21% Draws 29%
14% Losses 36%
86% Over 0.5 goals 86%
86% Over 1.5 goals 71%
64% Over 2.5 goals 43%
29% Over 3.5 goals 21%
21% Over 4.5 goals 14%
7% Over 5.5 goals 7%
71% Both teams scored 50%
29% Clean sheets 29%
14% Failed to score 36%

How often Half Time

36% Wins 29%
50% Draws 43%
14% Losses 29%
71% Over 0.5 goals 71%
36% Over 1.5 goals 36%
7% Over 2.5 goals 14%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Milan all matches
Fiorentina all matches
Milan before this match, at home
2.57points / match
2.57scored / match
1.14conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 7 played · 18:8
Fiorentina before this match, away
1.14points / match
0.86scored / match
0.86conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 7 played · 6:6
Milan at home away Fiorentina

Per match

2.57 Goals scored 0.86
1.14 Goals conceded 0.86
3.71 Total goals 1.71
18.86 Shots 14.57
6.14 Shots on target 3.57
11.57 Shots faced 9.14
5.00 Corners 6.57
3.14 Corners against 3.14
13.43 Fouls 13.00
3.00 Yellow cards 2.71
1.14 1st-half goals scored 0.29
0.43 1st-half goals conceded 0.43

How often Full Time

86% Wins 29%
0% Draws 29%
14% Losses 43%
100% Over 0.5 goals 86%
100% Over 1.5 goals 57%
71% Over 2.5 goals 29%
43% Over 3.5 goals 0%
43% Over 4.5 goals 0%
14% Over 5.5 goals 0%
71% Both teams scored 43%
29% Clean sheets 29%
0% Failed to score 43%

How often Half Time

57% Wins 14%
43% Draws 57%
0% Losses 29%
86% Over 0.5 goals 57%
43% Over 1.5 goals 14%
14% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Milan at home
Fiorentina away

Last 10 matches before this match

Milan all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
08.11.22 Cremonese – Milan 0–0 (0–0) 6.004.201.55 1.72 2.10
05.11.22 Milan – Spezia 2–1 (1–0) 1.226.0013.00 1.57 2.37
30.10.22 Torino – Milan 2–1 (2–0) 3.753.302.10 2.10 1.72
22.10.22 Milan – Monza 4–1 (2–0) 1.405.007.50 1.66 2.20
16.10.22 Verona – Milan 1–2 (1–1) 6.004.001.57 1.80 2.00
08.10.22 Milan – Juventus 2–0 (1–0) 2.053.403.60 2.10 1.72
01.10.22 Empoli – Milan 1–3 (0–0) 5.504.001.60 1.86 2.04
18.09.22 Milan – Napoli 1–2 (0–0) 2.153.503.30 1.93 1.97
10.09.22 Sampdoria – Milan 1–2 (0–1) 6.004.501.50 1.72 2.10
03.09.22 Milan – Inter 3–2 (1–1) 2.803.252.60 1.88 2.02

Fiorentina all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.11.22 Fiorentina – Salernitana 2–1 (1–0) 1.534.206.25 1.72 2.10
06.11.22 Sampdoria – Fiorentina 0–2 (0–1) 4.203.401.90 2.06 1.84
30.10.22 Spezia – Fiorentina 1–2 (1–1) 4.003.601.90 1.98 1.92
22.10.22 Fiorentina – Inter 3–4 (1–2) 3.603.502.05 1.80 2.00
17.10.22 Lecce – Fiorentina 1–1 (1–0) 3.753.402.05 2.10 1.72
10.10.22 Fiorentina – Lazio 0–4 (0–2) 2.403.502.80 1.91 1.99
02.10.22 Atalanta – Fiorentina 1–0 (0–0) 1.953.504.00 1.92 1.98
18.09.22 Fiorentina – Verona 2–0 (1–0) 1.753.804.50 1.80 2.00
11.09.22 Bologna – Fiorentina 2–1 (0–0) 2.903.402.45 1.96 1.94
03.09.22 Fiorentina – Juventus 1–1 (1–1) 3.003.252.40 2.10 1.72

Milan at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
05.11.22 Milan – Spezia 2–1 (1–0) 1.226.0013.00 1.57 2.37
22.10.22 Milan – Monza 4–1 (2–0) 1.405.007.50 1.66 2.20
08.10.22 Milan – Juventus 2–0 (1–0) 2.053.403.60 2.10 1.72
18.09.22 Milan – Napoli 1–2 (0–0) 2.153.503.30 1.93 1.97
03.09.22 Milan – Inter 3–2 (1–1) 2.803.252.60 1.88 2.02
27.08.22 Milan – Bologna 2–0 (1–0) 1.335.508.50 1.61 2.30
13.08.22 Milan – Udinese 4–2 (2–2) 1.444.757.00 1.72 2.10
15.05.22 Milan – Atalanta 2–0 (0–0) 1.754.204.20 1.57 2.37
01.05.22 Milan – Fiorentina 1–0 (0–0) 1.614.005.50 1.72 2.10
15.04.22 Milan – Genoa 2–0 (1–0) 1.335.0011.00 1.80 2.00

Fiorentina away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
06.11.22 Sampdoria – Fiorentina 0–2 (0–1) 4.203.401.90 2.06 1.84
30.10.22 Spezia – Fiorentina 1–2 (1–1) 4.003.601.90 1.98 1.92
17.10.22 Lecce – Fiorentina 1–1 (1–0) 3.753.402.05 2.10 1.72
02.10.22 Atalanta – Fiorentina 1–0 (0–0) 1.953.504.00 1.92 1.98
11.09.22 Bologna – Fiorentina 2–1 (0–0) 2.903.402.45 1.96 1.94
31.08.22 Udinese – Fiorentina 1–0 (1–0) 2.703.502.50 1.80 2.00
21.08.22 Empoli – Fiorentina 0–0 (0–0) 3.753.801.90 1.66 2.20
16.05.22 Sampdoria – Fiorentina 4–1 (2–0) 3.753.801.90 1.72 2.10
01.05.22 Milan – Fiorentina 1–0 (0–0) 1.614.005.50 1.72 2.10
24.04.22 Salernitana – Fiorentina 2–1 (1–0) 5.503.801.66 1.72 2.10

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Milan winsDrawsFiorentina wins
2matches
4.00goals / match
50%over 2.5
50%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.05.22I1 Milan – Fiorentina 1–0 (0–0) 1.614.005.50 1.72 2.10
20.11.21I1 Fiorentina – Milan 4–3 (2–0) 3.103.502.25 1.87 2.03

Italy Serie A table 2022/2023, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Napoli 15 13 2 0 37 12 +25 41
2 Lazio 14 9 3 2 26 8 +18 30
3 Milan 14 9 3 2 27 14 +13 30
4 Inter 15 10 0 5 34 22 +12 30
5 Juventus 14 8 4 2 21 7 +14 28
6 Atalanta 15 8 3 4 22 15 +7 27
7 Roma 15 8 3 4 18 14 +4 27
8 Udinese 15 6 6 3 24 17 +7 24
9 Torino 15 6 3 6 16 17 -1 21
10 Fiorentina 14 5 4 5 17 18 -1 19
11 Bologna 15 5 4 6 20 25 -5 19
12 Salernitana 15 4 5 6 19 24 -5 17
13 Empoli 15 4 5 6 12 19 -7 17
14 Monza 15 5 1 9 16 22 -6 16
15 Sassuolo 15 4 4 7 15 22 -7 16
16 Lecce 15 3 6 6 14 17 -3 15
17 Spezia 15 3 4 8 14 26 -12 13
18 Cremonese 15 0 7 8 11 26 -15 7
19 Sampdoria 15 1 3 11 6 27 -21 6
20 Verona 15 1 2 12 12 29 -17 5
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Napoli 8 7 1 0 21 6 +15 22
2 Inter 7 6 0 1 19 4 +15 18
3 Milan 7 6 0 1 18 8 +10 18
4 Juventus 7 5 2 0 17 3 +14 17
5 Lazio 8 5 1 2 14 7 +7 16
6 Bologna 8 4 3 1 12 6 +6 15
7 Udinese 7 3 3 1 12 6 +6 12
8 Monza 8 4 0 4 11 8 +3 12
9 Salernitana 7 3 2 2 12 8 +4 11
10 Sassuolo 7 3 2 2 11 7 +4 11
11 Torino 7 3 2 2 6 4 +2 11
12 Atalanta 8 3 2 3 11 11 0 11
13 Fiorentina 7 3 2 2 11 12 -1 11
14 Empoli 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11
15 Roma 7 3 1 3 7 5 +2 10
16 Spezia 7 2 4 1 11 10 +1 10
17 Lecce 7 1 4 2 7 8 -1 7
18 Verona 8 1 0 7 8 17 -9 3
19 Cremonese 7 0 3 4 2 11 -9 3
20 Sampdoria 8 0 2 6 2 13 -11 2
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Napoli 7 6 1 0 16 6 +10 19
2 Roma 8 5 2 1 11 9 +2 17
3 Atalanta 7 5 1 1 11 4 +7 16
4 Lazio 6 4 2 0 12 1 +11 14
5 Milan 7 3 3 1 9 6 +3 12
6 Udinese 8 3 3 2 12 11 +1 12
7 Inter 8 4 0 4 15 18 -3 12
8 Juventus 7 3 2 2 4 4 0 11
9 Torino 8 3 1 4 10 13 -3 10
10 Fiorentina 7 2 2 3 6 6 0 8
11 Lecce 8 2 2 4 7 9 -2 8
12 Empoli 7 1 3 3 5 11 -6 6
13 Salernitana 8 1 3 4 7 16 -9 6
14 Sassuolo 8 1 2 5 4 15 -11 5
15 Cremonese 8 0 4 4 9 15 -6 4
16 Monza 7 1 1 5 5 14 -9 4
17 Sampdoria 7 1 1 5 4 14 -10 4
18 Bologna 7 1 1 5 8 19 -11 4
19 Spezia 8 1 0 7 3 16 -13 3
20 Verona 7 0 2 5 4 12 -8 2

Milan   Fiorentina

Under / Over goals 2022/2023, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 4 Inter 15 3 12 2.3 1.5 10 0 5 34 22 30
2 1 Napoli 15 5 10 2.5 0.8 13 2 0 37 12 41
3 12 Salernitana 15 5 10 1.3 1.6 4 5 6 19 24 17
4 3 Milan 14 5 9 1.9 1.0 9 3 2 27 14 30
5 8 Udinese 15 6 9 1.6 1.1 6 6 3 24 17 24
6 11 Bologna 15 6 9 1.3 1.7 5 4 6 20 25 19
7 15 Sassuolo 15 6 9 1.0 1.5 4 4 7 15 22 16
8 17 Spezia 15 6 9 0.9 1.7 3 4 8 14 26 13
9 14 Monza 15 7 8 1.1 1.5 5 1 9 16 22 16
10 20 Verona 15 7 8 0.8 1.9 1 2 12 12 29 5
11 2 Lazio 14 7 7 1.9 0.6 9 3 2 26 8 30
12 9 Torino 15 8 7 1.1 1.1 6 3 6 16 17 21
13 18 Cremonese 15 8 7 0.7 1.7 0 7 8 11 26 7
14 6 Atalanta 15 9 6 1.5 1.0 8 3 4 22 15 27
15 7 Roma 15 9 6 1.2 0.9 8 3 4 18 14 27
16 10 Fiorentina 14 8 6 1.2 1.3 5 4 5 17 18 19
17 19 Sampdoria 15 9 6 0.4 1.8 1 3 11 6 27 6
18 5 Juventus 14 10 4 1.5 0.5 8 4 2 21 7 28
19 13 Empoli 15 11 4 0.8 1.3 4 5 6 12 19 17
20 16 Lecce 15 11 4 0.9 1.1 3 6 6 14 17 15
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 20 Verona 8 2 6 1.0 2.1 1 0 7 8 17 3
2 1 Napoli 8 3 5 2.6 0.8 7 1 0 21 6 22
3 2 Lazio 8 3 5 1.8 0.9 5 1 2 14 7 16
4 3 Milan 7 2 5 2.6 1.1 6 0 1 18 8 18
5 4 Inter 7 2 5 2.7 0.6 6 0 1 19 4 18
6 12 Salernitana 7 2 5 1.7 1.1 3 2 2 12 8 11
7 17 Spezia 7 2 5 1.6 1.4 2 4 1 11 10 10
8 5 Juventus 7 3 4 2.4 0.4 5 2 0 17 3 17
9 6 Atalanta 8 4 4 1.4 1.4 3 2 3 11 11 11
10 8 Udinese 7 3 4 1.7 0.9 3 3 1 12 6 12
11 10 Fiorentina 7 3 4 1.6 1.7 3 2 2 11 12 11
12 14 Monza 8 4 4 1.4 1.0 4 0 4 11 8 12
13 15 Sassuolo 7 3 4 1.6 1.0 3 2 2 11 7 11
14 11 Bologna 8 5 3 1.5 0.8 4 3 1 12 6 15
15 18 Cremonese 7 4 3 0.3 1.6 0 3 4 2 11 3
16 7 Roma 7 5 2 1.0 0.7 3 1 3 7 5 10
17 13 Empoli 8 6 2 0.9 1.0 3 2 3 7 8 11
18 16 Lecce 7 5 2 1.0 1.1 1 4 2 7 8 7
19 19 Sampdoria 8 6 2 0.2 1.6 0 2 6 2 13 2
20 9 Torino 7 6 1 0.9 0.6 3 2 2 6 4 11
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 4 Inter 8 1 7 1.9 2.2 4 0 4 15 18 12
2 9 Torino 8 2 6 1.2 1.6 3 1 4 10 13 10
3 11 Bologna 7 1 6 1.1 2.7 1 1 5 8 19 4
4 1 Napoli 7 2 5 2.3 0.9 6 1 0 16 6 19
5 8 Udinese 8 3 5 1.5 1.4 3 3 2 12 11 12
6 12 Salernitana 8 3 5 0.9 2.0 1 3 4 7 16 6
7 15 Sassuolo 8 3 5 0.5 1.9 1 2 5 4 15 5
8 3 Milan 7 3 4 1.3 0.9 3 3 1 9 6 12
9 7 Roma 8 4 4 1.4 1.1 5 2 1 11 9 17
10 14 Monza 7 3 4 0.7 2.0 1 1 5 5 14 4
11 17 Spezia 8 4 4 0.4 2.0 1 0 7 3 16 3
12 18 Cremonese 8 4 4 1.1 1.9 0 4 4 9 15 4
13 19 Sampdoria 7 3 4 0.6 2.0 1 1 5 4 14 4
14 2 Lazio 6 4 2 2.0 0.2 4 2 0 12 1 14
15 6 Atalanta 7 5 2 1.6 0.6 5 1 1 11 4 16
16 10 Fiorentina 7 5 2 0.9 0.9 2 2 3 6 6 8
17 13 Empoli 7 5 2 0.7 1.6 1 3 3 5 11 6
18 16 Lecce 8 6 2 0.9 1.1 2 2 4 7 9 8
19 20 Verona 7 5 2 0.6 1.7 0 2 5 4 12 2
20 5 Juventus 7 7 0 0.6 0.6 3 2 2 4 4 11

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 25 Oct 2026, 22:40