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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: A Madley

Watford 0–4 Burnley

Full time · half time 0–3 · season 2026/2027

Home 3.10 fair 2.04
Draw 3.40 fair 4.19
Away ✓ 2.20 fair 3.68
Under 2.5 2.00 fair 2.26
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.80 fair 1.79

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Watford Burnley
14 Shots 17
6 Shots on target 8
0.64 Expected goals (xG) 1.94
6 Corners 2
8 Fouls 10
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✓ Goals correct ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (99 league matches this season so far).
Result Watford to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.74
Expected goals 1.71 – 1.21
Home / Draw / Away
WatfordDrawBurnley
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.2% 2–1 9.5% 1–0 9.2%

Statistics 2026/2027, before this match

Watford before this match, all matches
1.00points / match
0.88scored / match
1.25conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 8 played · 7:10
Burnley before this match, all matches
0.50points / match
1.13scored / match
2.13conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 8 played · 9:17
Watford all matches all matches Burnley

Per match

0.88 Goals scored 1.13
1.25 Goals conceded 2.13
2.13 Total goals 3.25
0.92 xG created 1.13
1.74 xG allowed 1.61
11.63 Shots 13.38
3.50 Shots on target 3.75
15.25 Shots faced 14.00
3.63 Corners 4.88
6.63 Corners against 4.25
11.75 Fouls 10.63
2.88 Yellow cards 2.38
0.50 1st-half goals scored 0.50
1.00 1st-half goals conceded 1.00

How often Full Time

25% Wins 0%
25% Draws 50%
50% Losses 50%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
75% Over 1.5 goals 100%
38% Over 2.5 goals 63%
0% Over 3.5 goals 50%
0% Over 4.5 goals 13%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
63% Both teams scored 100%
0% Clean sheets 0%
38% Failed to score 0%

How often Half Time

13% Wins 25%
25% Draws 25%
63% Losses 50%
100% Over 0.5 goals 88%
50% Over 1.5 goals 38%
0% Over 2.5 goals 13%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Watford all matches
Burnley all matches
Watford before this match, at home
1.75points / match
1.50scored / match
1.25conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 4 played · 6:5
Burnley before this match, away
0.25points / match
1.00scored / match
2.75conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 4 played · 4:11
Watford at home away Burnley

Per match

1.50 Goals scored 1.00
1.25 Goals conceded 2.75
2.75 Total goals 3.75
1.02 xG created 1.34
1.64 xG allowed 1.88
13.25 Shots 16.00
3.75 Shots on target 4.25
16.50 Shots faced 14.75
3.50 Corners 5.00
7.75 Corners against 3.25
10.75 Fouls 10.00
2.75 Yellow cards 2.25
0.75 1st-half goals scored 0.75
0.75 1st-half goals conceded 1.50

How often Full Time

50% Wins 0%
25% Draws 25%
25% Losses 75%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
100% Over 1.5 goals 100%
75% Over 2.5 goals 75%
0% Over 3.5 goals 75%
0% Over 4.5 goals 25%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
100% Both teams scored 100%
0% Clean sheets 0%
0% Failed to score 0%

How often Half Time

25% Wins 25%
25% Draws 25%
50% Losses 50%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
50% Over 1.5 goals 75%
0% Over 2.5 goals 25%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Watford at home
Burnley away

Last 10 matches before this match

Watford all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
18.09.26 Bristol City – Watford 1–0 (1–0) 1.663.904.50 1.73 2.10
12.09.26 Watford – Stoke 1–2 (0–1) 2.253.303.10 1.93 1.93
08.09.26 Watford – Preston 2–1 (0–1) 2.053.403.40 1.93 1.93
05.09.26 West Brom – Watford 1–0 (1–0) 1.813.604.00 1.91 1.91
01.09.26 Swansea – Watford 2–0 (2–0) 1.763.604.20 1.93 1.93
29.08.26 Watford – West Ham 1–1 (1–1) 3.903.801.79 1.62 2.30
22.08.26 Wrexham – Watford 1–1 (1–1) 1.863.504.00 1.90 1.95
16.08.26 Watford – Southampton 2–1 (2–0) 3.403.502.05 1.73 2.10
02.05.26 Watford – Coventry 0–4 (0–2) 3.304.001.91 1.57 2.38
25.04.26 Middlesbrough – Watford 5–1 (2–0) 1.394.756.50 1.57 2.38

Burnley all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
19.09.26 Burnley – Derby 1–1 (1–0) 1.763.604.33 1.88 1.98
12.09.26 Swansea – Burnley 3–1 (2–0) 2.103.403.30 1.90 1.95
08.09.26 Wrexham – Burnley 1–1 (0–1) 2.013.403.60 1.93 1.93
05.09.26 Burnley – Bristol City 1–2 (0–0) 1.813.604.00 1.83 2.03
02.09.26 Burnley – Middlesbrough 1–1 (0–1) 2.823.402.32 1.80 2.00
29.08.26 Norwich – Burnley 4–1 (3–1) 2.203.603.00 1.80 2.00
23.08.26 West Brom – Burnley 3–1 (1–1) 2.703.302.45 2.10 1.73
16.08.26 Burnley – West Ham 2–2 (0–1) 2.853.502.25 1.73 2.10
24.05.26E0 Burnley – Wolves 1–1 (0–1) 2.353.502.90 1.73 2.10
18.05.26E0 Arsenal – Burnley 1–0 (1–0) 1.0911.0023.00 1.33 3.40

Watford at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
12.09.26 Watford – Stoke 1–2 (0–1) 2.253.303.10 1.93 1.93
08.09.26 Watford – Preston 2–1 (0–1) 2.053.403.40 1.93 1.93
29.08.26 Watford – West Ham 1–1 (1–1) 3.903.801.79 1.62 2.30
16.08.26 Watford – Southampton 2–1 (2–0) 3.403.502.05 1.73 2.10
02.05.26 Watford – Coventry 0–4 (0–2) 3.304.001.91 1.57 2.38
18.04.26 Watford – Sheffield United 0–2 (0–0) 2.653.402.45 1.80 2.00
06.04.26 Watford – Charlton 1–1 (0–0) 1.813.304.50 2.00 1.80
21.03.26 Watford – Leicester 0–0 (0–0) 1.963.603.50 1.91 1.91
17.03.26 Watford – Wrexham 3–1 (2–0) 2.203.403.00 2.10 1.73
24.02.26 Watford – Ipswich 0–2 (0–1) 3.303.252.15 2.20 1.67

Burnley away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
12.09.26 Swansea – Burnley 3–1 (2–0) 2.103.403.30 1.90 1.95
08.09.26 Wrexham – Burnley 1–1 (0–1) 2.013.403.60 1.93 1.93
29.08.26 Norwich – Burnley 4–1 (3–1) 2.203.603.00 1.80 2.00
23.08.26 West Brom – Burnley 3–1 (1–1) 2.703.302.45 2.10 1.73
18.05.26E0 Arsenal – Burnley 1–0 (1–0) 1.0911.0023.00 1.33 3.40
01.05.26E0 Leeds – Burnley 3–1 (1–0) 1.335.009.50 1.67 2.20
19.04.26E0 Nott'm Forest – Burnley 4–1 (0–1) 1.504.207.00 1.73 2.10
21.03.26E0 Fulham – Burnley 3–1 (0–0) 1.534.106.25 1.80 2.00
03.03.26E0 Everton – Burnley 2–0 (1–0) 1.574.006.00 1.98 1.88
21.02.26E0 Chelsea – Burnley 1–1 (1–0) 1.226.5012.00 1.44 2.75

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Watford winsDrawsBurnley wins
6matches
2.00goals / match
50%over 2.5
67%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
18.04.25E1 Watford – Burnley 1–2 (1–1) 4.753.401.80 2.30 1.62
21.12.24E1 Burnley – Watford 2–1 (1–0) 1.703.705.25 2.10 1.73
14.02.23E1 Burnley – Watford 1–1 (0–1) 1.673.805.25 1.95 1.90
12.08.22E1 Watford – Burnley 1–0 (1–0) 2.303.303.10 2.10 1.72
30.04.22E0 Watford – Burnley 1–2 (1–0) 2.603.302.75 2.10 1.72
05.02.22E0 Burnley – Watford 0–0 (0–0) 2.203.253.50 2.10 1.72

England Championship table 2026/2027, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Swansea 9 6 2 1 15 7 +8 20 WDLWWW
2 West Ham 9 4 4 1 23 12 +11 16 WWWWDD
3 Middlesbrough 8 4 3 1 16 12 +4 15 WDWWDD
4 Southampton 8 4 2 2 19 10 +9 14 WDDWWL
5 Wolves 7 4 2 1 15 10 +5 14 WWLDWW
6 QPR 9 3 5 1 11 8 +3 14 WLDDDD
7 Birmingham 9 3 5 1 13 11 +2 14 DDLWDW
8 West Brom 9 4 2 3 10 9 +1 14 DWWDLL
9 Bristol City 9 4 2 3 12 13 -1 14 WWLLWD
10 Stoke 8 4 1 3 13 12 +1 13 LWWDWW
11 Charlton 9 3 4 2 8 11 -3 13 DLDDLD
12 Millwall 8 3 2 3 15 15 0 11 LLWLDD
13 Lincoln 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11 WDDWWL
14 Wrexham 8 2 4 2 9 12 -3 10 LWDDLW
15 Bolton 8 3 1 4 11 15 -4 10 LLLLWW
16 Blackburn 8 2 3 3 12 12 0 9 LDLLWD
17 Norwich 9 3 0 6 17 19 -2 9 LWWLLL
18 Sheffield United 8 2 3 3 9 11 -2 9 DWLWLL
19 Portsmouth 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8 WLLWDD
20 Watford 8 2 2 4 7 10 -3 8 DLLWLL
21 Cardiff 8 1 4 3 10 12 -2 7 DLLDLW
22 Derby 8 1 2 5 7 14 -7 5 LWLLLD
23 Preston 8 1 1 6 8 15 -7 4 LLWLLD
24 Burnley 8 0 4 4 9 17 -8 4 LDLDLD
  • Promotion to Premier League
  • Play-off semi-finals
  • Play-off quarter-finals
  • Relegation to League One
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Southampton 4 4 0 0 15 4 +11 12 WWWW
2 Swansea 5 3 2 0 7 2 +5 11 DWDWW
3 West Ham 5 3 1 1 15 5 +10 10 LWWWD
4 Middlesbrough 4 3 1 0 11 7 +4 10 WWWD
5 Stoke 4 3 0 1 8 3 +5 9 LWWW
6 Charlton 5 2 3 0 4 2 +2 9 WWDDD
7 West Brom 5 2 2 1 6 4 +2 8 WDWDL
8 Millwall 4 2 1 1 9 5 +4 7 WLWD
9 Wolves 3 2 1 0 7 3 +4 7 DWW
10 Watford 4 2 1 1 6 5 +1 7 WDWL
11 Norwich 4 2 0 2 10 8 +2 6 LWWL
12 Cardiff 4 1 3 0 7 5 +2 6 DDDW
13 Blackburn 4 2 0 2 7 6 +1 6 WLLW
14 Bolton 4 2 0 2 5 5 0 6 WLLW
15 Bristol City 4 2 0 2 3 4 -1 6 LWLW
16 Wrexham 4 1 2 1 5 5 0 5 DLDW
17 QPR 4 1 2 1 4 4 0 5 DWLD
18 Birmingham 4 0 4 0 7 7 0 4 DDDD
19 Portsmouth 4 1 1 2 5 7 -2 4 LLWD
20 Sheffield United 4 1 1 2 4 6 -2 4 DWLL
21 Burnley 4 0 3 1 5 6 -1 3 DDLD
22 Preston 4 1 0 3 4 8 -4 3 LLWL
23 Lincoln 4 0 2 2 3 6 -3 2 LDDL
24 Derby 4 0 1 3 3 8 -5 1 DLLL
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Birmingham 5 3 1 1 6 4 +2 10 DWLWW
2 Swansea 4 3 0 1 8 5 +3 9 WWLW
3 QPR 5 2 3 0 7 4 +3 9 WWDDD
4 Lincoln 4 3 0 1 4 2 +2 9 LWWW
5 Bristol City 5 2 2 1 9 9 0 8 DWWLD
6 Wolves 4 2 1 1 8 7 +1 7 WLDW
7 West Ham 4 1 3 0 8 7 +1 6 DDWD
8 West Brom 4 2 0 2 4 5 -1 6 WLWL
9 Middlesbrough 4 1 2 1 5 5 0 5 LDWD
10 Sheffield United 4 1 2 1 5 5 0 5 DDWL
11 Wrexham 4 1 2 1 4 7 -3 5 DWDL
12 Portsmouth 3 1 1 1 4 3 +1 4 WLD
13 Derby 4 1 1 2 4 6 -2 4 LWLD
14 Bolton 4 1 1 2 6 10 -4 4 DLLW
15 Millwall 4 1 1 2 6 10 -4 4 WLLD
16 Stoke 4 1 1 2 5 9 -4 4 LLDW
17 Charlton 4 1 1 2 4 9 -5 4 WDLL
18 Blackburn 4 0 3 1 5 6 -1 3 DDLD
19 Norwich 5 1 0 4 7 11 -4 3 LLWLL
20 Southampton 4 0 2 2 4 6 -2 2 LDDL
21 Preston 4 0 1 3 4 7 -3 1 LLLD
22 Cardiff 4 0 1 3 3 7 -4 1 DLLL
23 Watford 4 0 1 3 1 5 -4 1 DLLL
24 Burnley 4 0 1 3 4 11 -7 1 LLDL

Watford   Burnley

Under / Over goals 2026/2027, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 17 Norwich 9 1 8 1.9 2.1 3 0 6 17 19 9 UOOOOO
2 2 West Ham 9 2 7 2.6 1.3 4 4 1 23 12 16 OOOOOU
3 12 Millwall 8 1 7 1.9 1.9 3 2 3 15 15 11 OOOOOO
4 16 Blackburn 8 1 7 1.5 1.5 2 3 3 12 12 9 OUOOOO
5 1 Swansea 9 3 6 1.7 0.8 6 2 1 15 7 20 UUOOOO
6 3 Middlesbrough 8 2 6 2.0 1.5 4 3 1 16 12 15 OUUOOO
7 4 Southampton 8 2 6 2.4 1.2 4 2 2 19 10 14 OUUOOO
8 7 Birmingham 9 3 6 1.4 1.2 3 5 1 13 11 14 UOOOOU
9 10 Stoke 8 2 6 1.6 1.5 4 1 3 13 12 13 OUOUOO
10 23 Preston 8 2 6 1.0 1.9 1 1 6 8 15 4 UOOOUO
11 5 Wolves 7 2 5 2.1 1.4 4 2 1 15 10 14 OOOOUU
12 9 Bristol City 9 4 5 1.3 1.4 4 2 3 12 13 14 OOOUUU
13 15 Bolton 8 3 5 1.4 1.9 3 1 4 11 15 10 UOOOUO
14 18 Sheffield United 8 3 5 1.1 1.4 2 3 3 9 11 9 OOOOUO
15 22 Derby 8 3 5 0.9 1.8 1 2 5 7 14 5 OUOUOU
16 24 Burnley 8 3 5 1.1 2.1 0 4 4 9 17 4 OUOUOU
17 6 QPR 9 5 4 1.2 0.9 3 5 1 11 8 14 OUUUOU
18 11 Charlton 9 5 4 0.9 1.2 3 4 2 8 11 13 UOUUOU
19 14 Wrexham 8 4 4 1.1 1.5 2 4 2 9 12 10 OOUUOO
20 19 Portsmouth 7 3 4 1.3 1.4 2 2 3 9 10 8 OOUUUO
21 21 Cardiff 8 4 4 1.2 1.5 1 4 3 10 12 7 OOUUUO
22 8 West Brom 9 6 3 1.1 1.0 4 2 3 10 9 14 UUUUUU
23 13 Lincoln 8 5 3 0.9 1.0 3 2 3 7 8 11 UUUUUO
24 20 Watford 8 5 3 0.9 1.2 2 2 4 7 10 8 UUUOOU
Home – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 2 West Ham 5 1 4 3.0 1.0 3 1 1 15 5 10 OOOOU
2 3 Middlesbrough 4 0 4 2.8 1.8 3 1 0 11 7 10 OOOO
3 4 Southampton 4 0 4 3.8 1.0 4 0 0 15 4 12 OOOO
4 12 Millwall 4 0 4 2.2 1.2 2 1 1 9 5 7 OOOO
5 16 Blackburn 4 0 4 1.8 1.5 2 0 2 7 6 6 OOOO
6 17 Norwich 4 0 4 2.5 2.0 2 0 2 10 8 6 OOOO
7 7 Birmingham 4 1 3 1.8 1.8 0 4 0 7 7 4 OUOO
8 10 Stoke 4 1 3 2.0 0.8 3 0 1 8 3 9 OUOO
9 20 Watford 4 1 3 1.5 1.2 2 1 1 6 5 7 OUOO
10 22 Derby 4 1 3 0.8 2.0 0 1 3 3 8 1 OOUO
11 23 Preston 4 1 3 1.0 2.0 1 0 3 4 8 3 OOOU
12 1 Swansea 5 3 2 1.4 0.4 3 2 0 7 2 11 UUUOO
13 5 Wolves 3 1 2 2.3 1.0 2 1 0 7 3 7 OOU
14 6 QPR 4 2 2 1.0 1.0 1 2 1 4 4 5 UOUO
15 13 Lincoln 4 2 2 0.8 1.5 0 2 2 3 6 2 OUUO
16 14 Wrexham 4 2 2 1.2 1.2 1 2 1 5 5 5 UOUO
17 15 Bolton 4 2 2 1.2 1.2 2 0 2 5 5 6 OUOU
18 18 Sheffield United 4 2 2 1.0 1.5 1 1 2 4 6 4 UOOU
19 19 Portsmouth 4 2 2 1.2 1.8 1 1 2 5 7 4 OUUO
20 21 Cardiff 4 2 2 1.8 1.2 1 3 0 7 5 6 UOUO
21 24 Burnley 4 2 2 1.2 1.5 0 3 1 5 6 3 OUOU
22 8 West Brom 5 4 1 1.2 0.8 2 2 1 6 4 8 OUUUU
23 9 Bristol City 4 3 1 0.8 1.0 2 0 2 3 4 6 UOUU
24 11 Charlton 5 4 1 0.8 0.4 2 3 0 4 2 9 OUUUU
Away – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 1 Swansea 4 0 4 2.0 1.2 3 0 1 8 5 9 OOOO
2 9 Bristol City 5 1 4 1.8 1.8 2 2 1 9 9 8 OOOOU
3 17 Norwich 5 1 4 1.4 2.2 1 0 4 7 11 3 OUOOO
4 2 West Ham 4 1 3 2.0 1.8 1 3 0 8 7 6 OUOO
5 5 Wolves 4 1 3 2.0 1.8 2 1 1 8 7 7 OOOU
6 7 Birmingham 5 2 3 1.2 0.8 3 1 1 6 4 10 UOOOU
7 10 Stoke 4 1 3 1.2 2.2 1 1 2 5 9 4 OOUO
8 11 Charlton 4 1 3 1.0 2.2 1 1 2 4 9 4 OUOO
9 12 Millwall 4 1 3 1.5 2.5 1 1 2 6 10 4 UOOO
10 15 Bolton 4 1 3 1.5 2.5 1 1 2 6 10 4 UOOO
11 16 Blackburn 4 1 3 1.2 1.5 0 3 1 5 6 3 OUOO
12 18 Sheffield United 4 1 3 1.2 1.2 1 2 1 5 5 5 UOOO
13 23 Preston 4 1 3 1.0 1.8 0 1 3 4 7 1 OUOO
14 24 Burnley 4 1 3 1.0 2.8 0 1 3 4 11 1 OOUO
15 3 Middlesbrough 4 2 2 1.2 1.2 1 2 1 5 5 5 OUUO
16 4 Southampton 4 2 2 1.0 1.5 0 2 2 4 6 2 OUUO
17 6 QPR 5 3 2 1.4 0.8 2 3 0 7 4 9 OOUUU
18 8 West Brom 4 2 2 1.0 1.2 2 0 2 4 5 6 OOUU
19 14 Wrexham 4 2 2 1.0 1.8 1 2 1 4 7 5 UOUO
20 19 Portsmouth 3 1 2 1.3 1.0 1 1 1 4 3 4 OOU
21 21 Cardiff 4 2 2 0.8 1.8 0 1 3 3 7 1 OOUU
22 22 Derby 4 2 2 1.0 1.5 1 1 2 4 6 4 OUOU
23 13 Lincoln 4 3 1 1.0 0.5 3 0 1 4 2 9 OUUU
24 20 Watford 4 4 0 0.2 1.2 0 1 3 1 5 1 UUUU

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Streak = last 6 matches, oldest left: O / U over or under the line, Y / N on the BTTS tab. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 4 Nov 2026, 06:11