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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England League One · ·Referee: C Breakspear

Bolton 2–1 Derby

Full time · half time 1–1 · season 2023/2024

Home ✓ 2.20 fair 2.52
Draw 3.40 fair 4.00
Away 3.30 fair 2.83
Under 2.5 1.85 fair 2.19
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.00 fair 1.84

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Bolton Derby
17 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 1
7 Corners 6
11 Fouls 9
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (60 league matches this season so far).
Result Bolton to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.73
Expected goals 1.48 – 1.38
Home / Draw / Away
BoltonDrawDerby
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.7% 2–1 8.6% 1–0 8.5%

Statistics 2023/2024, before this match

Bolton before this match, all matches
2.00points / match
2.00scored / match
1.20conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 5 played · 10:6
Derby before this match, all matches
1.80points / match
2.00scored / match
1.20conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 5 played · 10:6
Bolton all matches all matches Derby

Per match

2.00 Goals scored 2.00
1.20 Goals conceded 1.20
3.20 Total goals 3.20
15.40 Shots 13.60
5.20 Shots on target 4.40
9.00 Shots faced 11.80
7.20 Corners 8.80
4.40 Corners against 6.20
13.80 Fouls 11.60
2.00 Yellow cards 2.80
1.40 1st-half goals scored 1.20
0.60 1st-half goals conceded 0.60

How often Full Time

60% Wins 60%
20% Draws 0%
20% Losses 40%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
100% Over 1.5 goals 80%
80% Over 2.5 goals 80%
40% Over 3.5 goals 20%
0% Over 4.5 goals 20%
0% Over 5.5 goals 20%
40% Both teams scored 60%
40% Clean sheets 40%
20% Failed to score 0%

How often Half Time

60% Wins 60%
20% Draws 0%
20% Losses 40%
80% Over 0.5 goals 100%
60% Over 1.5 goals 20%
60% Over 2.5 goals 20%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Bolton all matches
Derby all matches
Bolton before this match, at home
2.00points / match
2.00scored / match
1.67conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 3 played · 6:5
Derby before this match, away
3.00points / match
3.50scored / match
1.00conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 2 played · 7:2
Bolton at home away Derby

Per match

2.00 Goals scored 3.50
1.67 Goals conceded 1.00
3.67 Total goals 4.50
14.67 Shots 11.00
4.33 Shots on target 5.00
9.00 Shots faced 15.00
6.33 Corners 5.50
5.00 Corners against 7.00
16.00 Fouls 9.50
2.33 Yellow cards 2.00
1.33 1st-half goals scored 2.50
1.00 1st-half goals conceded 0.50

How often Full Time

67% Wins 100%
0% Draws 0%
33% Losses 0%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
100% Over 1.5 goals 100%
100% Over 2.5 goals 100%
67% Over 3.5 goals 50%
0% Over 4.5 goals 50%
0% Over 5.5 goals 50%
33% Both teams scored 50%
33% Clean sheets 50%
33% Failed to score 0%

How often Half Time

67% Wins 100%
0% Draws 0%
33% Losses 0%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
67% Over 1.5 goals 50%
67% Over 2.5 goals 50%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Bolton at home
Derby away

Last 10 matches before this match

Bolton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
26.08.23 Burton – Bolton 1–1 (0–0) 4.003.501.95 1.88 1.98
19.08.23 Bolton – Wigan 0–4 (0–3) 1.753.804.50 1.93 1.93
15.08.23 Bolton – Fleetwood Town 3–1 (3–0) 1.604.005.75 1.85 2.00
12.08.23 Cheltenham – Bolton 0–3 (0–3) 4.003.401.95 2.05 1.75
05.08.23 Bolton – Lincoln 3–0 (1–0) 1.753.605.00 2.20 1.65
07.05.23 Bristol Rvs – Bolton 2–3 (1–1) 2.903.602.30 1.80 2.00
29.04.23 Bolton – Fleetwood Town 2–0 (1–0) 1.574.335.50 1.93 1.93
25.04.23 Bolton – Accrington 0–1 (0–1) 1.504.506.50 1.73 2.08
22.04.23 Bolton – Shrewsbury 1–0 (0–0) 1.534.007.50 2.08 1.73
18.04.23 Burton – Bolton 1–1 (0–1) 3.403.502.10 2.05 1.80

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
26.08.23 Peterboro – Derby 2–4 (1–4) 2.503.402.80 1.93 1.93
19.08.23 Derby – Fleetwood Town 1–0 (1–0) 1.554.335.75 1.85 2.00
15.08.23 Derby – Oxford 1–2 (0–1) 1.913.604.00 2.05 1.75
12.08.23 Burton – Derby 0–3 (0–1) 4.333.601.85 1.93 1.93
05.08.23 Derby – Wigan 1–2 (0–1) 1.673.805.50 1.95 1.90
07.05.23 Sheffield Weds – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.502.60 1.95 1.90
29.04.23 Derby – Portsmouth 1–1 (0–1) 1.534.206.50 1.88 1.98
22.04.23 Derby – Burton 1–0 (0–0) 1.504.207.00 1.70 2.10
18.04.23 Exeter – Derby 1–2 (0–0) 3.403.302.20 2.05 1.80
15.04.23 Bristol Rvs – Derby 1–1 (0–1) 4.333.601.83 1.95 1.90

Bolton at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
19.08.23 Bolton – Wigan 0–4 (0–3) 1.753.804.50 1.93 1.93
15.08.23 Bolton – Fleetwood Town 3–1 (3–0) 1.604.005.75 1.85 2.00
05.08.23 Bolton – Lincoln 3–0 (1–0) 1.753.605.00 2.20 1.65
29.04.23 Bolton – Fleetwood Town 2–0 (1–0) 1.574.335.50 1.93 1.93
25.04.23 Bolton – Accrington 0–1 (0–1) 1.504.506.50 1.73 2.08
22.04.23 Bolton – Shrewsbury 1–0 (0–0) 1.534.007.50 2.08 1.73
10.04.23 Bolton – Cambridge 1–1 (0–0) 1.573.757.00 2.02 1.83
11.03.23 Bolton – Ipswich 0–2 (0–1) 3.603.402.10 2.05 1.80
25.02.23 Bolton – Port Vale 2–1 (2–1) 1.624.005.25 2.02 1.83
14.02.23 Bolton – Milton Keynes Dons 5–0 (3–0) 1.673.805.50 2.00 1.85

Derby away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
26.08.23 Peterboro – Derby 2–4 (1–4) 2.503.402.80 1.93 1.93
12.08.23 Burton – Derby 0–3 (0–1) 4.333.601.85 1.93 1.93
07.05.23 Sheffield Weds – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.502.60 1.95 1.90
18.04.23 Exeter – Derby 1–2 (0–0) 3.403.302.20 2.05 1.80
15.04.23 Bristol Rvs – Derby 1–1 (0–1) 4.333.601.83 1.95 1.90
07.04.23 Forest Green – Derby 0–2 (0–1) 5.754.001.60 2.05 1.75
25.03.23 Peterboro – Derby 2–0 (0–0) 2.553.502.63 1.93 1.93
11.03.23 Oxford – Derby 2–3 (1–2) 3.603.502.00 1.98 1.88
07.03.23 Plymouth – Derby 2–1 (0–1) 2.603.602.55 1.95 1.90
25.02.23 Barnsley – Derby 4–1 (3–1) 3.003.302.40 2.08 1.73

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Bolton winsDrawsDerby wins
2matches
1.50goals / match
50%over 2.5
50%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
21.01.23E2 Derby – Bolton 2–1 (1–0) 1.953.603.80 2.05 1.75
27.12.22E2 Bolton – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 2.403.402.90 2.02 1.83

England League One table 2023/2024, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Oxford 5 4 0 1 8 5 +3 12
2 Exeter 5 3 1 1 7 2 +5 10
3 Bolton 5 3 1 1 10 6 +4 10
4 Lincoln 5 3 1 1 9 5 +4 10
5 Wigan 5 3 1 1 9 5 +4 10
6 Stevenage 5 3 1 1 5 3 +2 10
7 Port Vale 5 3 1 1 5 9 -4 10
8 Portsmouth 5 2 3 0 6 1 +5 9
9 Derby 5 3 0 2 10 6 +4 9
10 Cambridge 5 3 0 2 7 4 +3 9
11 Peterboro 5 3 0 2 7 6 +1 9
12 Shrewsbury 5 3 0 2 4 4 0 9
13 Barnsley 5 2 1 2 12 7 +5 7
14 Northampton 5 2 1 2 5 5 0 7
15 Wycombe 5 2 1 2 5 9 -4 7
16 Reading 5 2 0 3 4 4 0 6
17 Blackpool 5 1 3 1 2 3 -1 6
18 Bristol Rvs 5 1 2 2 5 7 -2 5
19 Leyton Orient 5 1 1 3 4 8 -4 4
20 Charlton 5 1 0 4 5 8 -3 3
21 Carlisle 5 0 2 3 2 6 -4 2
22 Burton 5 0 2 3 2 8 -6 2
23 Fleetwood Town 5 0 1 4 2 8 -6 1
24 Cheltenham 5 0 1 4 0 6 -6 1
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lincoln 2 2 0 0 6 0 +6 6
2 Cambridge 3 2 0 1 5 2 +3 6
3 Oxford 2 2 0 0 3 1 +2 6
4 Reading 3 2 0 1 3 1 +2 6
5 Port Vale 2 2 0 0 2 0 +2 6
6 Bolton 3 2 0 1 6 5 +1 6
7 Shrewsbury 3 2 0 1 3 2 +1 6
8 Blackpool 3 1 2 0 2 0 +2 5
9 Portsmouth 3 1 2 0 2 1 +1 5
10 Stevenage 2 1 1 0 2 0 +2 4
11 Exeter 2 1 1 0 2 1 +1 4
12 Northampton 3 1 1 1 3 3 0 4
13 Wycombe 3 1 1 1 3 5 -2 4
14 Barnsley 3 1 0 2 9 6 +3 3
15 Charlton 3 1 0 2 4 5 -1 3
16 Derby 3 1 0 2 3 4 -1 3
17 Peterboro 2 1 0 1 3 4 -1 3
18 Wigan 2 1 0 1 2 3 -1 3
19 Leyton Orient 2 1 0 1 2 4 -2 3
20 Carlisle 3 0 2 1 2 4 -2 2
21 Bristol Rvs 2 0 1 1 2 3 -1 1
22 Burton 2 0 1 1 1 4 -3 1
23 Fleetwood Town 2 0 0 2 0 3 -3 0
24 Cheltenham 2 0 0 2 0 4 -4 0
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Wigan 3 2 1 0 7 2 +5 7
2 Derby 2 2 0 0 7 2 +5 6
3 Exeter 3 2 0 1 5 1 +4 6
4 Peterboro 3 2 0 1 4 2 +2 6
5 Oxford 3 2 0 1 5 4 +1 6
6 Stevenage 3 2 0 1 3 3 0 6
7 Portsmouth 2 1 1 0 4 0 +4 4
8 Bolton 2 1 1 0 4 1 +3 4
9 Barnsley 2 1 1 0 3 1 +2 4
10 Bristol Rvs 3 1 1 1 3 4 -1 4
11 Lincoln 3 1 1 1 3 5 -2 4
12 Port Vale 3 1 1 1 3 9 -6 4
13 Cambridge 2 1 0 1 2 2 0 3
14 Northampton 2 1 0 1 2 2 0 3
15 Shrewsbury 2 1 0 1 1 2 -1 3
16 Wycombe 2 1 0 1 2 4 -2 3
17 Leyton Orient 3 0 1 2 2 4 -2 1
18 Cheltenham 3 0 1 2 0 2 -2 1
19 Fleetwood Town 3 0 1 2 2 5 -3 1
20 Burton 3 0 1 2 1 4 -3 1
21 Blackpool 2 0 1 1 0 3 -3 1
22 Charlton 2 0 0 2 1 3 -2 0
23 Reading 2 0 0 2 1 3 -2 0
24 Carlisle 2 0 0 2 0 2 -2 0

Bolton   Derby

Under / Over goals 2023/2024, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 3 Bolton 5 1 4 2.0 1.2 3 1 1 10 6 10
2 4 Lincoln 5 1 4 1.8 1.0 3 1 1 9 5 10
3 9 Derby 5 1 4 2.0 1.2 3 0 2 10 6 9
4 15 Wycombe 5 1 4 1.0 1.8 2 1 2 5 9 7
5 1 Oxford 5 2 3 1.6 1.0 4 0 1 8 5 12
6 5 Wigan 5 2 3 1.8 1.0 3 1 1 9 5 10
7 13 Barnsley 5 2 3 2.4 1.4 2 1 2 12 7 7
8 20 Charlton 5 2 3 1.0 1.6 1 0 4 5 8 3
9 2 Exeter 5 3 2 1.4 0.4 3 1 1 7 2 10
10 7 Port Vale 5 3 2 1.0 1.8 3 1 1 5 9 10
11 11 Peterboro 5 3 2 1.4 1.2 3 0 2 7 6 9
12 14 Northampton 5 3 2 1.0 1.0 2 1 2 5 5 7
13 18 Bristol Rvs 5 3 2 1.0 1.4 1 2 2 5 7 5
14 19 Leyton Orient 5 3 2 0.8 1.6 1 1 3 4 8 4
15 22 Burton 5 3 2 0.4 1.6 0 2 3 2 8 2
16 6 Stevenage 5 4 1 1.0 0.6 3 1 1 5 3 10
17 8 Portsmouth 5 4 1 1.2 0.2 2 3 0 6 1 9
18 10 Cambridge 5 4 1 1.4 0.8 3 0 2 7 4 9
19 12 Shrewsbury 5 4 1 0.8 0.8 3 0 2 4 4 9
20 16 Reading 5 4 1 0.8 0.8 2 0 3 4 4 6
21 17 Blackpool 5 4 1 0.4 0.6 1 3 1 2 3 6
22 23 Fleetwood Town 5 4 1 0.4 1.6 0 1 4 2 8 1
23 24 Cheltenham 5 4 1 0.0 1.2 0 1 4 0 6 1
24 21 Carlisle 5 5 0 0.4 1.2 0 2 3 2 6 2
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 3 Bolton 3 0 3 2.0 1.7 2 0 1 6 5 6
2 13 Barnsley 3 0 3 3.0 2.0 1 0 2 9 6 3
3 4 Lincoln 2 0 2 3.0 0.0 2 0 0 6 0 6
4 9 Derby 3 1 2 1.0 1.3 1 0 2 3 4 3
5 15 Wycombe 3 1 2 1.0 1.7 1 1 1 3 5 4
6 20 Charlton 3 1 2 1.3 1.7 1 0 2 4 5 3
7 1 Oxford 2 1 1 1.5 0.5 2 0 0 3 1 6
8 2 Exeter 2 1 1 1.0 0.5 1 1 0 2 1 4
9 5 Wigan 2 1 1 1.0 1.5 1 0 1 2 3 3
10 10 Cambridge 3 2 1 1.7 0.7 2 0 1 5 2 6
11 11 Peterboro 2 1 1 1.5 2.0 1 0 1 3 4 3
12 12 Shrewsbury 3 2 1 1.0 0.7 2 0 1 3 2 6
13 14 Northampton 3 2 1 1.0 1.0 1 1 1 3 3 4
14 18 Bristol Rvs 2 1 1 1.0 1.5 0 1 1 2 3 1
15 19 Leyton Orient 2 1 1 1.0 2.0 1 0 1 2 4 3
16 22 Burton 2 1 1 0.5 2.0 0 1 1 1 4 1
17 24 Cheltenham 2 1 1 0.0 2.0 0 0 2 0 4 0
18 6 Stevenage 2 2 0 1.0 0.0 1 1 0 2 0 4
19 7 Port Vale 2 2 0 1.0 0.0 2 0 0 2 0 6
20 8 Portsmouth 3 3 0 0.7 0.3 1 2 0 2 1 5
21 16 Reading 3 3 0 1.0 0.3 2 0 1 3 1 6
22 17 Blackpool 3 3 0 0.7 0.0 1 2 0 2 0 5
23 21 Carlisle 3 3 0 0.7 1.3 0 2 1 2 4 2
24 23 Fleetwood Town 2 2 0 0.0 1.5 0 0 2 0 3 0
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 Oxford 3 1 2 1.7 1.3 2 0 1 5 4 6
2 4 Lincoln 3 1 2 1.0 1.7 1 1 1 3 5 4
3 5 Wigan 3 1 2 2.3 0.7 2 1 0 7 2 7
4 7 Port Vale 3 1 2 1.0 3.0 1 1 1 3 9 4
5 9 Derby 2 0 2 3.5 1.0 2 0 0 7 2 6
6 15 Wycombe 2 0 2 1.0 2.0 1 0 1 2 4 3
7 2 Exeter 3 2 1 1.7 0.3 2 0 1 5 1 6
8 3 Bolton 2 1 1 2.0 0.5 1 1 0 4 1 4
9 6 Stevenage 3 2 1 1.0 1.0 2 0 1 3 3 6
10 8 Portsmouth 2 1 1 2.0 0.0 1 1 0 4 0 4
11 11 Peterboro 3 2 1 1.3 0.7 2 0 1 4 2 6
12 14 Northampton 2 1 1 1.0 1.0 1 0 1 2 2 3
13 16 Reading 2 1 1 0.5 1.5 0 0 2 1 3 0
14 17 Blackpool 2 1 1 0.0 1.5 0 1 1 0 3 1
15 18 Bristol Rvs 3 2 1 1.0 1.3 1 1 1 3 4 4
16 19 Leyton Orient 3 2 1 0.7 1.3 0 1 2 2 4 1
17 20 Charlton 2 1 1 0.5 1.5 0 0 2 1 3 0
18 22 Burton 3 2 1 0.3 1.3 0 1 2 1 4 1
19 23 Fleetwood Town 3 2 1 0.7 1.7 0 1 2 2 5 1
20 10 Cambridge 2 2 0 1.0 1.0 1 0 1 2 2 3
21 12 Shrewsbury 2 2 0 0.5 1.0 1 0 1 1 2 3
22 13 Barnsley 2 2 0 1.5 0.5 1 1 0 3 1 4
23 21 Carlisle 2 2 0 0.0 1.0 0 0 2 0 2 0
24 24 Cheltenham 3 3 0 0.0 0.7 0 1 2 0 2 1

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51