Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin – Germany Bundesliga, 10 May 2026

Match facts

Mainz Union Berlin

14 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 9

7 Corners 8

11 Fouls 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (296 league matches this season so far).

Result Mainz to win

Goals Over 2.5

Both teams score Yes fair 1.73

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.24

Home / Draw / Away

48% 24% 28%

MainzDrawUnion Berlin

Under / Over 2.5 goals

44% 56%

Under 2.5Over 2.5

Both teams to score

42% 58%

NoYes

Total goals in the match

5% 0

16% 1

23% 2

22% 3

16% 4

17% 5+

Most likely scores

1–1 11.2% 2–1 9.4% 1–0 9%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Mainz before this match, all matches

1.16points / match

1.28scored / match

1.56conceded / match

9 10 13

WonDrawnLost 32 played · 41:50

Union Berlin before this match, all matches

1.03points / match

1.16scored / match

1.78conceded / match

8 9 15

WonDrawnLost 32 played · 37:57

Mainz all matches all matches Union Berlin

Per match

1.28 Goals scored 1.16

1.56 Goals conceded 1.78

2.84 Total goals 2.94

11.94 Shots 12.25

4.03 Shots on target 3.59

14.03 Shots faced 12.97

5.06 Corners 4.94

4.44 Corners against 4.63

10.94 Fouls 12.53

2.09 Yellow cards 2.09

0.66 1st-half goals scored 0.38

0.69 1st-half goals conceded 0.84

How often Full Time

28% Wins 25%

31% Draws 28%

41% Losses 47%

97% Over 0.5 goals 94%

81% Over 1.5 goals 75%

53% Over 2.5 goals 59%

31% Over 3.5 goals 44%

9% Over 4.5 goals 13%

6% Over 5.5 goals 6%

63% Both teams scored 63%

9% Clean sheets 19%

31% Failed to score 25%

How often Half Time

34% Wins 19%

34% Draws 31%

31% Losses 50%

81% Over 0.5 goals 72%

41% Over 1.5 goals 38%

9% Over 2.5 goals 13%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Mainz all matches

1

D

1

D

2

D

2

W

2

1

W

2

1

W

1

L

1

D

3

4

L

2

1

W

Union Berlin all matches

1

W

1

L

1

4

L

1

W

4

L

1

D

1

3

L

1

2

L

1

3

L

2

D

Mainz before this match, at home

1.06points / match

1.25scored / match

1.38conceded / match

4 5 7

WonDrawnLost 16 played · 20:22

Union Berlin before this match, away

0.88points / match

0.94scored / match

1.94conceded / match

4 2 10

WonDrawnLost 16 played · 15:31

Mainz at home away Union Berlin

Per match

1.25 Goals scored 0.94

1.38 Goals conceded 1.94

2.63 Total goals 2.88

13.56 Shots 11.50

4.19 Shots on target 3.13

12.25 Shots faced 14.81

6.13 Corners 4.63

3.50 Corners against 5.06

11.88 Fouls 12.63

1.75 Yellow cards 1.69

0.63 1st-half goals scored 0.25

0.56 1st-half goals conceded 1.00

How often Full Time

25% Wins 25%

31% Draws 13%

44% Losses 63%

94% Over 0.5 goals 100%

69% Over 1.5 goals 69%

38% Over 2.5 goals 50%

25% Over 3.5 goals 44%

13% Over 4.5 goals 13%

13% Over 5.5 goals 6%

56% Both teams scored 50%

13% Clean sheets 19%

38% Failed to score 31%

How often Half Time

38% Wins 13%

31% Draws 31%

31% Losses 56%

75% Over 0.5 goals 69%

25% Over 1.5 goals 44%

13% Over 2.5 goals 13%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Mainz at home

1

L

D

2

1

W

3

1

W

2

W

1

D

2

D

2

1

W

1

L

3

4

L

Union Berlin away

1

W

1

D

1

D

1

3

L

2

3

L

1

L

1

W

4

L

1

3

L

1

3

L

Last 10 matches before this match

Mainz all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
03.05.26	St Pauli – Mainz	1–2 (0–2)	2.63	3.30	2.60	2.10	1.73
25.04.26	Mainz – Bayern Munich	3–4 (3–0)	4.33	4.50	1.67	1.44	2.75
19.04.26	M'gladbach – Mainz	1–1 (1–0)	2.35	3.50	2.90	1.90	1.95
12.04.26	Mainz – Freiburg	0–1 (0–0)	2.25	3.10	3.50	1.88	1.98
04.04.26	Hoffenheim – Mainz	1–2 (1–1)	1.70	4.00	4.75	1.57	2.38
22.03.26	Mainz – Ein Frankfurt	2–1 (1–1)	2.10	3.70	3.25	1.73	2.10
15.03.26	Werder Bremen – Mainz	0–2 (0–1)	2.20	3.50	3.20	1.73	2.10
07.03.26	Mainz – Stuttgart	2–2 (1–0)	3.20	3.60	2.15	1.62	2.30
28.02.26	Leverkusen – Mainz	1–1 (0–0)	1.70	4.00	4.50	1.67	2.20
20.02.26	Mainz – Hamburg	1–1 (1–0)	2.10	3.40	3.50	1.80	2.00

Union Berlin all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
02.05.26	Union Berlin – FC Koln	2–2 (0–1)	2.45	3.30	2.90	1.91	1.91
24.04.26	RB Leipzig – Union Berlin	3–1 (2–0)	1.48	4.75	6.00	1.50	2.63
18.04.26	Union Berlin – Wolfsburg	1–2 (0–1)	2.15	3.60	3.25	1.91	1.91
11.04.26	Heidenheim – Union Berlin	3–1 (2–0)	2.90	3.60	2.30	1.90	1.95
05.04.26	Union Berlin – St Pauli	1–1 (0–1)	2.10	3.25	3.75	2.50	1.53
21.03.26	Bayern Munich – Union Berlin	4–0 (2–0)	1.17	8.00	13.00	1.33	3.40
15.03.26	Freiburg – Union Berlin	0–1 (0–0)	2.15	3.30	3.50	2.10	1.73
08.03.26	Union Berlin – Werder Bremen	1–4 (1–2)	2.25	3.40	3.25	2.00	1.80
28.02.26	M'gladbach – Union Berlin	1–0 (0–0)	2.38	3.30	3.00	2.00	1.80
21.02.26	Union Berlin – Leverkusen	1–0 (1–0)	3.00	3.30	2.38	1.95	1.90

Mainz at home

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
25.04.26	Mainz – Bayern Munich	3–4 (3–0)	4.33	4.50	1.67	1.44	2.75
12.04.26	Mainz – Freiburg	0–1 (0–0)	2.25	3.10	3.50	1.88	1.98
22.03.26	Mainz – Ein Frankfurt	2–1 (1–1)	2.10	3.70	3.25	1.73	2.10
07.03.26	Mainz – Stuttgart	2–2 (1–0)	3.20	3.60	2.15	1.62	2.30
20.02.26	Mainz – Hamburg	1–1 (1–0)	2.10	3.40	3.50	1.80	2.00
07.02.26	Mainz – Augsburg	2–0 (1–0)	2.05	3.60	3.50	1.80	2.00
24.01.26	Mainz – Wolfsburg	3–1 (0–1)	2.30	3.50	3.00	1.73	2.10
13.01.26	Mainz – Heidenheim	2–1 (1–0)	1.75	3.80	4.33	1.73	2.10
21.12.25	Mainz – St Pauli	0–0 (0–0)	1.95	3.40	4.10	2.10	1.73
05.12.25	Mainz – M'gladbach	0–1 (0–0)	2.55	3.40	2.63	1.73	2.10

Union Berlin away

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
24.04.26	RB Leipzig – Union Berlin	3–1 (2–0)	1.48	4.75	6.00	1.50	2.63
11.04.26	Heidenheim – Union Berlin	3–1 (2–0)	2.90	3.60	2.30	1.90	1.95
21.03.26	Bayern Munich – Union Berlin	4–0 (2–0)	1.17	8.00	13.00	1.33	3.40
15.03.26	Freiburg – Union Berlin	0–1 (0–0)	2.15	3.30	3.50	2.10	1.73
28.02.26	M'gladbach – Union Berlin	1–0 (0–0)	2.38	3.30	3.00	2.00	1.80
14.02.26	Hamburg – Union Berlin	3–2 (2–1)	2.50	3.25	2.90	2.10	1.73
31.01.26	Hoffenheim – Union Berlin	3–1 (2–0)	1.80	3.80	4.33	1.80	2.00
18.01.26	Stuttgart – Union Berlin	1–1 (0–0)	1.65	3.90	5.25	1.80	2.00
15.01.26	Augsburg – Union Berlin	1–1 (1–0)	2.60	3.20	2.80	2.20	1.67
20.12.25	FC Koln – Union Berlin	0–1 (0–0)	2.30	3.30	3.10	1.98	1.88

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

4 5

Mainz winsDrawsUnion Berlin wins

9matches

2.89goals / match

67%over 2.5

89%both scored

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
10.01.26D1	Union Berlin – Mainz	2–2 (0–1)	2.15	3.25	3.70	2.20	1.65
19.01.25D1	Union Berlin – Mainz	2–1 (2–1)	2.55	3.20	2.88	2.10	1.73
24.08.24D1	Mainz – Union Berlin	1–1 (0–0)	2.00	3.40	3.90	2.20	1.67
07.02.24D1	Mainz – Union Berlin	1–1 (1–1)	2.15	3.30	3.50	2.20	1.67
20.08.23D1	Union Berlin – Mainz	4–1 (2–0)	1.95	3.50	3.90	2.10	1.73
04.02.23D1	Union Berlin – Mainz	2–1 (1–0)	1.95	3.50	4.00	2.20	1.67
14.08.22D1	Mainz – Union Berlin	0–0 (0–0)	2.20	3.25	3.40	2.06	1.84
26.02.22D1	Union Berlin – Mainz	3–1 (1–0)	2.60	3.30	2.75	2.20	1.66
03.10.21D1	Mainz – Union Berlin	1–2 (1–0)	2.05	3.50	3.60	2.00	1.80

Germany Bundesliga table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	33	27	5	1	117	35	+82	86
2	Dortmund	33	21	7	5	68	34	+34	70
3	RB Leipzig	33	20	5	8	65	43	+22	65
4	Stuttgart	33	18	7	8	69	47	+22	61
5	Hoffenheim	33	18	7	8	65	48	+17	61
6	Leverkusen	33	17	7	9	67	46	+21	58
7	Freiburg	33	12	8	13	47	56	-9	44
8	Ein Frankfurt	33	11	10	12	59	63	-4	43
9	Augsburg	33	12	7	14	45	57	-12	43
10	Mainz	32	9	10	13	41	50	-9	37
11	Hamburg	33	9	10	14	39	53	-14	37
12	M'gladbach	33	8	11	14	38	53	-15	35
13	Union Berlin	32	8	9	15	37	57	-20	33
14	FC Koln	33	7	11	15	48	58	-10	32
15	Werder Bremen	33	8	8	17	37	58	-21	32
16	Wolfsburg	33	6	8	19	42	68	-26	26
17	Heidenheim	33	6	8	19	41	70	-29	26
18	St Pauli	33	6	8	19	28	57	-29	26

Home – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	2	1	63	18	+45	41
2	Dortmund	17	13	2	2	40	16	+24	41
3	Stuttgart	17	12	3	2	30	16	+14	39
4	RB Leipzig	17	12	2	3	40	20	+20	38
5	Hoffenheim	17	10	2	5	35	21	+14	32
6	Leverkusen	16	9	3	4	37	18	+19	30
7	Freiburg	16	8	5	3	29	21	+8	29
8	Augsburg	17	7	5	5	25	28	-3	26
9	Hamburg	17	6	6	5	25	22	+3	24
10	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	3	6	27	25	+2	24
11	M'gladbach	16	5	6	5	20	24	-4	21
12	FC Koln	17	5	4	8	30	30	0	19
13	Union Berlin	16	4	7	5	22	26	-4	19
14	Werder Bremen	16	5	4	7	19	29	-10	19
15	Mainz	16	4	5	7	20	22	-2	17
16	Heidenheim	16	4	5	7	23	35	-12	17
17	St Pauli	16	4	5	7	16	28	-12	17
18	Wolfsburg	17	2	4	11	21	32	-11	10

Away – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	17	14	3	0	54	17	+37	45
2	Dortmund	16	8	5	3	28	18	+10	29
3	Hoffenheim	16	8	5	3	30	27	+3	29
4	Leverkusen	17	8	4	5	30	28	+2	28
5	RB Leipzig	16	8	3	5	25	23	+2	27
6	Stuttgart	16	6	4	6	39	31	+8	22
7	Mainz	16	5	5	6	21	28	-7	20
8	Ein Frankfurt	17	4	7	6	32	38	-6	19
9	Augsburg	16	5	2	9	20	29	-9	17
10	Wolfsburg	16	4	4	8	21	36	-15	16
11	Freiburg	17	4	3	10	18	35	-17	15
12	M'gladbach	17	3	5	9	18	29	-11	14
13	Union Berlin	16	4	2	10	15	31	-16	14
14	FC Koln	16	2	7	7	18	28	-10	13
15	Werder Bremen	17	3	4	10	18	29	-11	13
16	Hamburg	16	3	4	9	14	31	-17	13
17	Heidenheim	17	2	3	12	18	35	-17	9
18	St Pauli	17	2	3	12	12	29	-17	9

Mainz Union Berlin

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1	1	Bayern Munich	33	2	31	3.5	1.1	27	5	1	117	35	86
2	4	Stuttgart	33	9	24	2.1	1.4	18	7	8	69	47	61
3	3	RB Leipzig	33	10	23	2.0	1.3	20	5	8	65	43	65
4	5	Hoffenheim	33	10	23	2.0	1.5	18	7	8	65	48	61
5	17	Heidenheim	33	10	23	1.2	2.1	6	8	19	41	70	26
6	8	Ein Frankfurt	33	11	22	1.8	1.9	11	10	12	59	63	43
7	7	Freiburg	33	12	21	1.4	1.7	12	8	13	47	56	44
8	14	FC Koln	33	12	21	1.5	1.8	7	11	15	48	58	32
9	16	Wolfsburg	33	12	21	1.3	2.1	6	8	19	42	68	26
10	6	Leverkusen	33	13	20	2.0	1.4	17	7	9	67	46	58
11	9	Augsburg	33	13	20	1.4	1.7	12	7	14	45	57	43
12	2	Dortmund	33	14	19	2.1	1.0	21	7	5	68	34	70
13	11	Hamburg	33	14	19	1.2	1.6	9	10	14	39	53	37
14	13	Union Berlin	32	13	19	1.2	1.8	8	9	15	37	57	33
15	15	Werder Bremen	33	15	18	1.1	1.8	8	8	17	37	58	32
16	18	St Pauli	33	15	18	0.8	1.7	6	8	19	28	57	26
17	10	Mainz	32	15	17	1.3	1.6	9	10	13	41	50	37
18	12	M'gladbach	33	16	17	1.2	1.6	8	11	14	38	53	35

Home – Under/Over goals
#
1	1	Bayern Munich	16	0	16	3.9	1.1	13	2	1	63	18	41
2	3	RB Leipzig	17	4	13	2.4	1.2	12	2	3	40	20	38
3	14	FC Koln	17	4	13	1.8	1.8	5	4	8	30	30	19
4	5	Hoffenheim	17	5	12	2.1	1.2	10	2	5	35	21	32
5	17	Heidenheim	16	4	12	1.4	2.2	4	5	7	23	35	17
6	7	Freiburg	16	5	11	1.8	1.3	8	5	3	29	21	29
7	13	Union Berlin	16	5	11	1.4	1.6	4	7	5	22	26	19
8	16	Wolfsburg	17	6	11	1.2	1.9	2	4	11	21	32	10
9	18	St Pauli	16	5	11	1.0	1.8	4	5	7	16	28	17
10	2	Dortmund	17	7	10	2.4	0.9	13	2	2	40	16	41
11	8	Ein Frankfurt	16	6	10	1.7	1.6	7	3	6	27	25	24
12	6	Leverkusen	16	7	9	2.3	1.1	9	3	4	37	18	30
13	9	Augsburg	17	8	9	1.5	1.6	7	5	5	25	28	26
14	11	Hamburg	17	8	9	1.5	1.3	6	6	5	25	22	24
15	15	Werder Bremen	16	7	9	1.2	1.8	5	4	7	19	29	19
16	4	Stuttgart	17	9	8	1.8	0.9	12	3	2	30	16	39
17	12	M'gladbach	16	8	8	1.2	1.5	5	6	5	20	24	21
18	10	Mainz	16	10	6	1.2	1.4	4	5	7	20	22	17

Away – Under/Over goals
#
1	4	Stuttgart	16	0	16	2.4	1.9	6	4	6	39	31	22
2	1	Bayern Munich	17	2	15	3.2	1.0	14	3	0	54	17	45
3	8	Ein Frankfurt	17	5	12	1.9	2.2	4	7	6	32	38	19
4	5	Hoffenheim	16	5	11	1.9	1.7	8	5	3	30	27	29
5	6	Leverkusen	17	6	11	1.8	1.6	8	4	5	30	28	28
6	9	Augsburg	16	5	11	1.2	1.8	5	2	9	20	29	17
7	10	Mainz	16	5	11	1.3	1.8	5	5	6	21	28	20
8	17	Heidenheim	17	6	11	1.1	2.1	2	3	12	18	35	9
9	3	RB Leipzig	16	6	10	1.6	1.4	8	3	5	25	23	27
10	7	Freiburg	17	7	10	1.1	2.1	4	3	10	18	35	15
11	11	Hamburg	16	6	10	0.9	1.9	3	4	9	14	31	13
12	16	Wolfsburg	16	6	10	1.3	2.2	4	4	8	21	36	16
13	2	Dortmund	16	7	9	1.8	1.1	8	5	3	28	18	29
14	12	M'gladbach	17	8	9	1.1	1.7	3	5	9	18	29	14
15	15	Werder Bremen	17	8	9	1.1	1.7	3	4	10	18	29	13
16	13	Union Berlin	16	8	8	0.9	1.9	4	2	10	15	31	14
17	14	FC Koln	16	8	8	1.1	1.8	2	7	7	18	28	13
18	18	St Pauli	17	10	7	0.7	1.7	2	3	12	12	29	9

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.