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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
Italy Serie A ·

Milan 1–0 Fiorentina

Full time · half time 1–0 · season 2023/2024

Home ✓ 2.10 fair 2.26
Draw 3.30 fair 4.02
Away 3.50 fair 3.24
Under 2.5 ✓ 1.84 fair 2.14
Over 2.5 2.06 fair 1.87

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Milan Fiorentina
9 Shots 20
6 Shots on target 4
3 Corners 11
9 Fouls 10
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (122 league matches this season so far).
Result Milan to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.77
Expected goals 1.55 – 1.26
Home / Draw / Away
MilanDrawFiorentina
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.7% 1–0 9.3% 2–1 9.1%

Statistics 2023/2024, before this match

Milan before this match, all matches
1.92points / match
1.67scored / match
1.17conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 12 played · 20:14
Fiorentina before this match, all matches
1.67points / match
1.67scored / match
1.33conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 12 played · 20:16
Milan all matches all matches Fiorentina

Per match

1.67 Goals scored 1.67
1.17 Goals conceded 1.33
2.83 Total goals 3.00
12.33 Shots 12.92
4.75 Shots on target 4.33
12.92 Shots faced 10.67
4.25 Corners 4.83
3.25 Corners against 3.75
11.92 Fouls 12.75
2.83 Yellow cards 1.83
1.08 1st-half goals scored 1.08
0.33 1st-half goals conceded 0.50

How often Full Time

58% Wins 50%
17% Draws 17%
25% Losses 33%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
67% Over 1.5 goals 83%
50% Over 2.5 goals 58%
42% Over 3.5 goals 42%
17% Over 4.5 goals 17%
8% Over 5.5 goals 0%
50% Both teams scored 50%
33% Clean sheets 17%
17% Failed to score 33%

How often Half Time

58% Wins 50%
33% Draws 25%
8% Losses 25%
67% Over 0.5 goals 92%
50% Over 1.5 goals 50%
17% Over 2.5 goals 17%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Milan all matches
Fiorentina all matches
Milan before this match, at home
1.80points / match
1.40scored / match
0.60conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 5 played · 7:3
Fiorentina before this match, away
1.67points / match
1.67scored / match
1.33conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 6 played · 10:8
Milan at home away Fiorentina

Per match

1.40 Goals scored 1.67
0.60 Goals conceded 1.33
2.00 Total goals 3.00
12.20 Shots 10.17
4.80 Shots on target 3.83
11.40 Shots faced 13.83
5.60 Corners 4.33
2.60 Corners against 4.67
13.20 Fouls 13.00
2.20 Yellow cards 2.50
0.80 1st-half goals scored 1.00
0.20 1st-half goals conceded 0.33

How often Full Time

60% Wins 50%
0% Draws 17%
40% Losses 33%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
40% Over 1.5 goals 83%
20% Over 2.5 goals 50%
20% Over 3.5 goals 50%
20% Over 4.5 goals 17%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
20% Both teams scored 50%
40% Clean sheets 17%
40% Failed to score 33%

How often Half Time

40% Wins 50%
60% Draws 33%
0% Losses 17%
40% Over 0.5 goals 83%
20% Over 1.5 goals 33%
20% Over 2.5 goals 17%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Milan at home
Fiorentina away

Last 10 matches before this match

Milan all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
11.11.23 Lecce – Milan 2–2 (0–2) 5.003.601.75 2.08 1.73
04.11.23 Milan – Udinese 0–1 (0–0) 1.454.507.00 1.75 2.05
29.10.23 Napoli – Milan 2–2 (0–2) 2.203.403.30 2.04 1.86
22.10.23 Milan – Juventus 0–1 (0–0) 2.253.403.20 2.10 1.70
07.10.23 Genoa – Milan 0–1 (0–0) 4.203.501.91 2.05 1.75
30.09.23 Milan – Lazio 2–0 (0–0) 1.733.605.00 2.06 1.84
27.09.23 Cagliari – Milan 1–3 (1–2) 5.253.801.67 1.99 1.91
23.09.23 Milan – Verona 1–0 (1–0) 1.364.759.00 1.73 2.10
16.09.23 Inter – Milan 5–1 (2–0) 2.153.503.40 1.90 2.00
01.09.23 Roma – Milan 1–2 (0–1) 2.803.102.63 2.30 1.62

Fiorentina all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
12.11.23 Fiorentina – Bologna 2–1 (1–1) 2.003.403.80 2.05 1.85
05.11.23 Fiorentina – Juventus 0–1 (0–1) 2.903.202.55 2.06 1.84
30.10.23 Lazio – Fiorentina 1–0 (0–0) 2.253.253.25 1.99 1.91
23.10.23 Fiorentina – Empoli 0–2 (0–1) 1.444.338.00 1.62 2.25
08.10.23 Napoli – Fiorentina 1–3 (1–1) 1.604.205.50 1.62 2.25
02.10.23 Fiorentina – Cagliari 3–0 (2–0) 1.504.207.00 1.88 2.02
28.09.23 Frosinone – Fiorentina 1–1 (0–1) 3.753.601.95 1.87 2.03
24.09.23 Udinese – Fiorentina 0–2 (0–1) 3.203.502.25 1.99 1.91
17.09.23 Fiorentina – Atalanta 3–2 (2–1) 2.383.502.88 1.80 2.00
03.09.23 Inter – Fiorentina 4–0 (1–0) 1.653.805.25 1.80 2.00

Milan at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
04.11.23 Milan – Udinese 0–1 (0–0) 1.454.507.00 1.75 2.05
22.10.23 Milan – Juventus 0–1 (0–0) 2.253.403.20 2.10 1.70
30.09.23 Milan – Lazio 2–0 (0–0) 1.733.605.00 2.06 1.84
23.09.23 Milan – Verona 1–0 (1–0) 1.364.759.00 1.73 2.10
26.08.23 Milan – Torino 4–1 (3–1) 1.653.805.00 2.20 1.67
04.06.23 Milan – Verona 3–1 (1–0) 1.734.004.50 1.94 1.99
20.05.23 Milan – Sampdoria 5–1 (3–1) 1.177.5017.00 1.57 2.38
06.05.23 Milan – Lazio 2–0 (2–0) 1.953.404.00 2.20 1.67
03.05.23 Milan – Cremonese 1–1 (0–0) 1.335.009.50 1.85 2.05
23.04.23 Milan – Lecce 2–0 (1–0) 1.504.207.00 2.10 1.73

Fiorentina away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
30.10.23 Lazio – Fiorentina 1–0 (0–0) 2.253.253.25 1.99 1.91
08.10.23 Napoli – Fiorentina 1–3 (1–1) 1.604.205.50 1.62 2.25
28.09.23 Frosinone – Fiorentina 1–1 (0–1) 3.753.601.95 1.87 2.03
24.09.23 Udinese – Fiorentina 0–2 (0–1) 3.203.502.25 1.99 1.91
03.09.23 Inter – Fiorentina 4–0 (1–0) 1.653.805.25 1.80 2.00
19.08.23 Genoa – Fiorentina 1–4 (0–3) 3.403.252.20 2.10 1.73
02.06.23 Sassuolo – Fiorentina 1–3 (0–0) 2.603.752.50 1.44 2.75
21.05.23 Torino – Fiorentina 1–1 (0–0) 1.953.404.20 2.20 1.67
07.05.23 Napoli – Fiorentina 1–0 (0–0) 1.803.804.33 1.73 2.10
03.05.23 Salernitana – Fiorentina 3–3 (1–1) 4.753.751.73 1.93 1.97

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Milan winsDrawsFiorentina wins
4matches
3.50goals / match
75%over 2.5
75%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
04.03.23I1 Fiorentina – Milan 2–1 (0–0) 2.803.302.55 2.10 1.73
13.11.22I1 Milan – Fiorentina 2–1 (1–1) 1.703.805.00 1.90 2.00
01.05.22I1 Milan – Fiorentina 1–0 (0–0) 1.614.005.50 1.72 2.10
20.11.21I1 Fiorentina – Milan 4–3 (2–0) 3.103.502.25 1.87 2.03

Italy Serie A table 2023/2024, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 12 10 1 1 29 6 +23 31
2 Juventus 12 9 2 1 19 7 +12 29
3 Napoli 13 7 3 3 26 14 +12 24
4 Milan 12 7 2 3 20 14 +6 23
5 Atalanta 13 6 2 5 21 13 +8 20
6 Fiorentina 12 6 2 4 20 16 +4 20
7 Roma 12 5 3 4 22 14 +8 18
8 Bologna 12 4 6 2 13 10 +3 18
9 Monza 12 4 5 3 13 11 +2 17
10 Lazio 13 5 2 6 14 15 -1 17
11 Torino 12 4 4 4 10 14 -4 16
12 Frosinone 12 4 3 5 17 20 -3 15
13 Genoa 12 4 2 6 13 16 -3 14
14 Lecce 12 3 5 4 13 16 -3 14
15 Sassuolo 12 3 3 6 16 21 -5 12
16 Udinese 12 1 8 3 8 15 -7 11
17 Empoli 12 3 1 8 5 21 -16 10
18 Cagliari 12 2 3 7 12 24 -12 9
19 Verona 12 2 2 8 7 16 -9 8
20 Salernitana 13 1 5 7 10 25 -15 8
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 7 5 1 1 17 5 +12 16
2 Juventus 6 5 1 0 10 3 +7 16
3 Roma 6 4 1 1 15 5 +10 13
4 Bologna 6 4 1 1 8 4 +4 13
5 Frosinone 6 4 1 1 12 9 +3 13
6 Lazio 6 3 2 1 7 4 +3 11
7 Lecce 7 3 2 2 8 9 -1 11
8 Atalanta 6 3 1 2 9 4 +5 10
9 Monza 6 2 4 0 8 3 +5 10
10 Fiorentina 6 3 1 2 10 8 +2 10
11 Genoa 6 3 1 2 9 8 +1 10
12 Milan 5 3 0 2 7 3 +4 9
13 Torino 6 2 3 1 4 5 -1 9
14 Sassuolo 7 2 2 3 10 11 -1 8
15 Napoli 6 2 1 3 10 9 +1 7
16 Cagliari 6 2 1 3 8 13 -5 7
17 Salernitana 7 1 3 3 6 14 -8 6
18 Verona 5 1 1 3 4 8 -4 4
19 Udinese 6 0 4 2 4 9 -5 4
20 Empoli 6 1 1 4 1 7 -6 4
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Napoli 7 5 2 0 16 5 +11 17
2 Inter 5 5 0 0 12 1 +11 15
3 Milan 7 4 2 1 13 11 +2 14
4 Juventus 6 4 1 1 9 4 +5 13
5 Atalanta 7 3 1 3 12 9 +3 10
6 Fiorentina 6 3 1 2 10 8 +2 10
7 Udinese 6 1 4 1 4 6 -2 7
8 Torino 6 2 1 3 6 9 -3 7
9 Monza 6 2 1 3 5 8 -3 7
10 Lazio 7 2 0 5 7 11 -4 6
11 Empoli 6 2 0 4 4 14 -10 6
12 Bologna 6 0 5 1 5 6 -1 5
13 Roma 6 1 2 3 7 9 -2 5
14 Sassuolo 5 1 1 3 6 10 -4 4
15 Genoa 6 1 1 4 4 8 -4 4
16 Verona 7 1 1 5 3 8 -5 4
17 Lecce 5 0 3 2 5 7 -2 3
18 Frosinone 6 0 2 4 5 11 -6 2
19 Cagliari 6 0 2 4 4 11 -7 2
20 Salernitana 6 0 2 4 4 11 -7 2

Milan   Fiorentina

Under / Over goals 2023/2024, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 3 Napoli 13 4 9 2.0 1.1 7 3 3 26 14 24
2 18 Cagliari 12 4 8 1.0 2.0 2 3 7 12 24 9
3 1 Inter 12 5 7 2.4 0.5 10 1 1 29 6 31
4 5 Atalanta 13 6 7 1.6 1.0 6 2 5 21 13 20
5 6 Fiorentina 12 5 7 1.7 1.3 6 2 4 20 16 20
6 7 Roma 12 5 7 1.8 1.2 5 3 4 22 14 18
7 12 Frosinone 12 5 7 1.4 1.7 4 3 5 17 20 15
8 20 Salernitana 13 6 7 0.8 1.9 1 5 7 10 25 8
9 4 Milan 12 6 6 1.7 1.2 7 2 3 20 14 23
10 15 Sassuolo 12 6 6 1.3 1.8 3 3 6 16 21 12
11 8 Bologna 12 7 5 1.1 0.8 4 6 2 13 10 18
12 10 Lazio 13 8 5 1.1 1.2 5 2 6 14 15 17
13 13 Genoa 12 7 5 1.1 1.3 4 2 6 13 16 14
14 14 Lecce 12 7 5 1.1 1.3 3 5 4 13 16 14
15 19 Verona 12 7 5 0.6 1.3 2 2 8 7 16 8
16 2 Juventus 12 8 4 1.6 0.6 9 2 1 19 7 29
17 11 Torino 12 8 4 0.8 1.2 4 4 4 10 14 16
18 17 Empoli 12 8 4 0.4 1.8 3 1 8 5 21 10
19 9 Monza 12 9 3 1.1 0.9 4 5 3 13 11 17
20 16 Udinese 12 9 3 0.7 1.2 1 8 3 8 15 11
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 12 Frosinone 6 1 5 2.0 1.5 4 1 1 12 9 13
2 1 Inter 7 3 4 2.4 0.7 5 1 1 17 5 16
3 3 Napoli 6 2 4 1.7 1.5 2 1 3 10 9 7
4 6 Fiorentina 6 2 4 1.7 1.3 3 1 2 10 8 10
5 7 Roma 6 2 4 2.5 0.8 4 1 1 15 5 13
6 18 Cagliari 6 2 4 1.3 2.2 2 1 3 8 13 7
7 20 Salernitana 7 3 4 0.9 2.0 1 3 3 6 14 6
8 5 Atalanta 6 3 3 1.5 0.7 3 1 2 9 4 10
9 8 Bologna 6 3 3 1.3 0.7 4 1 1 8 4 13
10 13 Genoa 6 3 3 1.5 1.3 3 1 2 9 8 10
11 14 Lecce 7 4 3 1.1 1.3 3 2 2 8 9 11
12 15 Sassuolo 7 4 3 1.4 1.6 2 2 3 10 11 8
13 19 Verona 5 2 3 0.8 1.6 1 1 3 4 8 4
14 2 Juventus 6 4 2 1.7 0.5 5 1 0 10 3 16
15 11 Torino 6 4 2 0.7 0.8 2 3 1 4 5 9
16 16 Udinese 6 4 2 0.7 1.5 0 4 2 4 9 4
17 4 Milan 5 4 1 1.4 0.6 3 0 2 7 3 9
18 9 Monza 6 5 1 1.3 0.5 2 4 0 8 3 10
19 10 Lazio 6 5 1 1.2 0.7 3 2 1 7 4 11
20 17 Empoli 6 5 1 0.2 1.2 1 1 4 1 7 4
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 3 Napoli 7 2 5 2.3 0.7 5 2 0 16 5 17
2 4 Milan 7 2 5 1.9 1.6 4 2 1 13 11 14
3 5 Atalanta 7 3 4 1.7 1.3 3 1 3 12 9 10
4 10 Lazio 7 3 4 1.0 1.6 2 0 5 7 11 6
5 18 Cagliari 6 2 4 0.7 1.8 0 2 4 4 11 2
6 1 Inter 5 2 3 2.4 0.2 5 0 0 12 1 15
7 6 Fiorentina 6 3 3 1.7 1.3 3 1 2 10 8 10
8 7 Roma 6 3 3 1.2 1.5 1 2 3 7 9 5
9 15 Sassuolo 5 2 3 1.2 2.0 1 1 3 6 10 4
10 17 Empoli 6 3 3 0.7 2.3 2 0 4 4 14 6
11 20 Salernitana 6 3 3 0.7 1.8 0 2 4 4 11 2
12 2 Juventus 6 4 2 1.5 0.7 4 1 1 9 4 13
13 8 Bologna 6 4 2 0.8 1.0 0 5 1 5 6 5
14 9 Monza 6 4 2 0.8 1.3 2 1 3 5 8 7
15 11 Torino 6 4 2 1.0 1.5 2 1 3 6 9 7
16 12 Frosinone 6 4 2 0.8 1.8 0 2 4 5 11 2
17 13 Genoa 6 4 2 0.7 1.3 1 1 4 4 8 4
18 14 Lecce 5 3 2 1.0 1.4 0 3 2 5 7 3
19 19 Verona 7 5 2 0.4 1.1 1 1 5 3 8 4
20 16 Udinese 6 5 1 0.7 1.0 1 4 1 4 6 7

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51