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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
Italy Serie A ·

Atalanta 3–2 Milan

Full time · half time 1–1 · season 2023/2024

Home ✓ 2.50 fair 2.38
Draw 3.20 fair 3.96
Away 3.00 fair 3.06
Under 2.5 1.75 fair 2.11
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.05 fair 1.90

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Atalanta Milan
19 Shots 14
7 Shots on target 4
6 Corners 4
11 Fouls 11
1 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 1

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (142 league matches this season so far).
Result Atalanta to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.78
Expected goals 1.49 – 1.29
Home / Draw / Away
AtalantaDrawMilan
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.9% 1–0 9.3% 2–1 8.9%

Statistics 2023/2024, before this match

Atalanta before this match, all matches
1.43points / match
1.50scored / match
1.14conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 14 played · 21:16
Milan before this match, all matches
2.07points / match
1.71scored / match
1.07conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 14 played · 24:15
Atalanta all matches all matches Milan

Per match

1.50 Goals scored 1.71
1.14 Goals conceded 1.07
2.64 Total goals 2.79
13.36 Shots 11.93
4.79 Shots on target 4.71
10.93 Shots faced 13.57
5.64 Corners 4.29
4.00 Corners against 4.07
13.36 Fouls 11.64
1.79 Yellow cards 2.57
0.57 1st-half goals scored 1.07
0.71 1st-half goals conceded 0.29

How often Full Time

43% Wins 64%
14% Draws 14%
43% Losses 21%
93% Over 0.5 goals 100%
86% Over 1.5 goals 64%
57% Over 2.5 goals 50%
14% Over 3.5 goals 43%
14% Over 4.5 goals 14%
0% Over 5.5 goals 7%
43% Both teams scored 50%
50% Clean sheets 36%
14% Failed to score 14%

How often Half Time

29% Wins 64%
21% Draws 29%
50% Losses 7%
79% Over 0.5 goals 71%
36% Over 1.5 goals 43%
14% Over 2.5 goals 14%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Atalanta all matches
Milan all matches
Atalanta before this match, at home
1.67points / match
1.50scored / match
0.67conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 6 played · 9:4
Milan before this match, away
2.00points / match
1.86scored / match
1.57conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 7 played · 13:11
Atalanta at home away Milan

Per match

1.50 Goals scored 1.86
0.67 Goals conceded 1.57
2.17 Total goals 3.43
14.33 Shots 12.43
5.50 Shots on target 4.71
10.00 Shots faced 14.00
6.33 Corners 3.29
3.50 Corners against 3.71
12.50 Fouls 11.00
2.00 Yellow cards 3.29
0.50 1st-half goals scored 1.29
0.33 1st-half goals conceded 0.43

How often Full Time

50% Wins 57%
17% Draws 29%
33% Losses 14%
83% Over 0.5 goals 100%
83% Over 1.5 goals 86%
50% Over 2.5 goals 71%
0% Over 3.5 goals 57%
0% Over 4.5 goals 14%
0% Over 5.5 goals 14%
33% Both teams scored 71%
67% Clean sheets 29%
17% Failed to score 0%

How often Half Time

33% Wins 71%
33% Draws 14%
33% Losses 14%
67% Over 0.5 goals 86%
17% Over 1.5 goals 71%
0% Over 2.5 goals 14%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Atalanta at home
Milan away

Last 10 matches before this match

Atalanta all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
04.12.23 Torino – Atalanta 3–0 (1–0) 2.903.202.45 2.20 1.65
25.11.23 Atalanta – Napoli 1–2 (0–1) 2.703.402.63 1.88 2.02
12.11.23 Udinese – Atalanta 1–1 (1–0) 3.753.502.00 1.99 1.91
04.11.23 Atalanta – Inter 1–2 (0–1) 3.303.502.15 1.83 2.07
30.10.23 Empoli – Atalanta 0–3 (0–2) 5.253.751.67 1.75 2.05
22.10.23 Atalanta – Genoa 2–0 (0–0) 1.553.806.50 2.03 1.87
08.10.23 Lazio – Atalanta 3–2 (2–1) 2.703.302.63 2.03 1.87
01.10.23 Atalanta – Juventus 0–0 (0–0) 2.503.402.80 1.93 1.97
27.09.23 Verona – Atalanta 0–1 (0–1) 4.203.751.83 1.96 1.94
24.09.23 Atalanta – Cagliari 2–0 (1–0) 1.405.008.00 1.67 2.20

Milan all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
02.12.23 Milan – Frosinone 3–1 (1–0) 1.444.507.50 1.70 2.10
25.11.23 Milan – Fiorentina 1–0 (1–0) 2.103.303.50 2.06 1.84
11.11.23 Lecce – Milan 2–2 (0–2) 5.003.601.75 2.08 1.73
04.11.23 Milan – Udinese 0–1 (0–0) 1.454.507.00 1.75 2.05
29.10.23 Napoli – Milan 2–2 (0–2) 2.203.403.30 2.04 1.86
22.10.23 Milan – Juventus 0–1 (0–0) 2.253.403.20 2.10 1.70
07.10.23 Genoa – Milan 0–1 (0–0) 4.203.501.91 2.05 1.75
30.09.23 Milan – Lazio 2–0 (0–0) 1.733.605.00 2.06 1.84
27.09.23 Cagliari – Milan 1–3 (1–2) 5.253.801.67 1.99 1.91
23.09.23 Milan – Verona 1–0 (1–0) 1.364.759.00 1.73 2.10

Atalanta at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
25.11.23 Atalanta – Napoli 1–2 (0–1) 2.703.402.63 1.88 2.02
04.11.23 Atalanta – Inter 1–2 (0–1) 3.303.502.15 1.83 2.07
22.10.23 Atalanta – Genoa 2–0 (0–0) 1.553.806.50 2.03 1.87
01.10.23 Atalanta – Juventus 0–0 (0–0) 2.503.402.80 1.93 1.97
24.09.23 Atalanta – Cagliari 2–0 (1–0) 1.405.008.00 1.67 2.20
02.09.23 Atalanta – Monza 3–0 (2–0) 1.624.005.25 1.73 2.10
04.06.23 Atalanta – Monza 5–2 (2–0) 1.574.505.00 1.53 2.50
20.05.23 Atalanta – Verona 3–1 (1–1) 1.534.206.00 1.86 2.04
07.05.23 Atalanta – Juventus 0–2 (0–0) 2.303.403.10 2.10 1.73
03.05.23 Atalanta – Spezia 3–2 (1–1) 1.365.008.00 1.67 2.20

Milan away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
11.11.23 Lecce – Milan 2–2 (0–2) 5.003.601.75 2.08 1.73
29.10.23 Napoli – Milan 2–2 (0–2) 2.203.403.30 2.04 1.86
07.10.23 Genoa – Milan 0–1 (0–0) 4.203.501.91 2.05 1.75
27.09.23 Cagliari – Milan 1–3 (1–2) 5.253.801.67 1.99 1.91
16.09.23 Inter – Milan 5–1 (2–0) 2.153.503.40 1.90 2.00
01.09.23 Roma – Milan 1–2 (0–1) 2.803.102.63 2.30 1.62
21.08.23 Bologna – Milan 0–2 (0–2) 4.003.401.95 2.00 1.80
28.05.23 Juventus – Milan 0–1 (0–1) 2.303.403.10 2.10 1.73
13.05.23 Spezia – Milan 2–0 (0–0) 4.203.501.91 2.03 1.87
29.04.23 Roma – Milan 1–1 (0–0) 2.753.002.75 2.50 1.53

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Atalanta winsDrawsMilan wins
4matches
2.75goals / match
25%over 2.5
50%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
26.02.23I1 Milan – Atalanta 2–0 (1–0) 2.153.403.40 1.94 1.96
21.08.22I1 Atalanta – Milan 1–1 (1–0) 2.753.502.50 1.72 2.10
15.05.22I1 Milan – Atalanta 2–0 (0–0) 1.754.204.20 1.57 2.37
03.10.21I1 Atalanta – Milan 2–3 (0–2) 2.053.753.40 1.66 2.20

Italy Serie A table 2023/2024, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Juventus 15 11 3 1 23 9 +14 36
2 Inter 14 11 2 1 33 7 +26 35
3 Milan 14 9 2 3 24 15 +9 29
4 Roma 14 7 3 4 27 16 +11 24
5 Napoli 15 7 3 5 26 18 +8 24
6 Fiorentina 14 7 2 5 23 17 +6 23
7 Bologna 14 5 7 2 16 11 +5 22
8 Lazio 15 6 3 6 16 16 0 21
9 Atalanta 14 6 2 6 21 16 +5 20
10 Torino 14 5 4 5 13 16 -3 19
11 Monza 14 4 6 4 15 14 +1 18
12 Frosinone 14 5 3 6 20 24 -4 18
13 Lecce 14 3 7 4 16 19 -3 16
14 Genoa 14 4 3 7 15 19 -4 15
15 Sassuolo 14 4 3 7 21 26 -5 15
16 Udinese 14 1 9 4 12 21 -9 12
17 Verona 15 2 5 8 13 22 -9 11
18 Empoli 14 3 2 9 9 26 -17 11
19 Cagliari 14 2 4 8 13 26 -13 10
20 Salernitana 14 1 5 8 10 28 -18 8
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Juventus 8 6 2 0 12 4 +8 20
2 Roma 7 5 1 1 18 6 +12 16
3 Inter 7 5 1 1 17 5 +12 16
4 Bologna 7 5 1 1 10 4 +6 16
5 Frosinone 7 5 1 1 14 10 +4 16
6 Milan 7 5 0 2 11 4 +7 15
7 Lazio 7 4 2 1 8 4 +4 14
8 Fiorentina 7 4 1 2 13 8 +5 13
9 Torino 7 3 3 1 7 5 +2 12
10 Lecce 8 3 3 2 9 10 -1 12
11 Genoa 7 3 2 2 10 9 +1 11
12 Atalanta 6 3 1 2 9 4 +5 10
13 Monza 7 2 4 1 9 5 +4 10
14 Sassuolo 8 2 2 4 11 13 -2 8
15 Cagliari 7 2 2 3 9 14 -5 8
16 Napoli 7 2 1 4 10 12 -2 7
17 Verona 7 1 3 3 7 11 -4 6
18 Salernitana 7 1 3 3 6 14 -8 6
19 Udinese 7 0 5 2 7 12 -5 5
20 Empoli 7 1 1 5 4 11 -7 4
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 7 6 1 0 16 2 +14 19
2 Napoli 8 5 2 1 16 6 +10 17
3 Juventus 7 5 1 1 11 5 +6 16
4 Milan 7 4 2 1 13 11 +2 14
5 Fiorentina 7 3 1 3 10 9 +1 10
6 Atalanta 8 3 1 4 12 12 0 10
7 Roma 7 2 2 3 9 10 -1 8
8 Monza 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
9 Sassuolo 6 2 1 3 10 13 -3 7
10 Lazio 8 2 1 5 8 12 -4 7
11 Udinese 7 1 4 2 5 9 -4 7
12 Torino 7 2 1 4 6 11 -5 7
13 Empoli 7 2 1 4 5 15 -10 7
14 Bologna 7 0 6 1 6 7 -1 6
15 Verona 8 1 2 5 6 11 -5 5
16 Lecce 6 0 4 2 7 9 -2 4
17 Genoa 7 1 1 5 5 10 -5 4
18 Frosinone 7 0 2 5 6 14 -8 2
19 Cagliari 7 0 2 5 4 12 -8 2
20 Salernitana 7 0 2 5 4 14 -10 2

Atalanta   Milan

Under / Over goals 2023/2024, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Napoli 15 5 10 1.7 1.2 7 3 5 26 18 24
2 4 Roma 14 5 9 1.9 1.1 7 3 4 27 16 24
3 12 Frosinone 14 5 9 1.4 1.7 5 3 6 20 24 18
4 2 Inter 14 6 8 2.4 0.5 11 2 1 33 7 35
5 6 Fiorentina 14 6 8 1.6 1.2 7 2 5 23 17 23
6 9 Atalanta 14 6 8 1.5 1.1 6 2 6 21 16 20
7 15 Sassuolo 14 6 8 1.5 1.9 4 3 7 21 26 15
8 19 Cagliari 14 6 8 0.9 1.9 2 4 8 13 26 10
9 20 Salernitana 14 6 8 0.7 2.0 1 5 8 10 28 8
10 3 Milan 14 7 7 1.7 1.1 9 2 3 24 15 29
11 17 Verona 15 8 7 0.9 1.5 2 5 8 13 22 11
12 13 Lecce 14 8 6 1.1 1.4 3 7 4 16 19 16
13 14 Genoa 14 8 6 1.1 1.4 4 3 7 15 19 15
14 1 Juventus 15 10 5 1.5 0.6 11 3 1 23 9 36
15 7 Bologna 14 9 5 1.1 0.8 5 7 2 16 11 22
16 8 Lazio 15 10 5 1.1 1.1 6 3 6 16 16 21
17 10 Torino 14 9 5 0.9 1.1 5 4 5 13 16 19
18 16 Udinese 14 9 5 0.9 1.5 1 9 4 12 21 12
19 18 Empoli 14 9 5 0.6 1.9 3 2 9 9 26 11
20 11 Monza 14 10 4 1.1 1.0 4 6 4 15 14 18
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 12 Frosinone 7 1 6 2.0 1.4 5 1 1 14 10 16
2 4 Roma 7 2 5 2.6 0.9 5 1 1 18 6 16
3 5 Napoli 7 2 5 1.4 1.7 2 1 4 10 12 7
4 6 Fiorentina 7 2 5 1.9 1.1 4 1 2 13 8 13
5 2 Inter 7 3 4 2.4 0.7 5 1 1 17 5 16
6 15 Sassuolo 8 4 4 1.4 1.6 2 2 4 11 13 8
7 17 Verona 7 3 4 1.0 1.6 1 3 3 7 11 6
8 19 Cagliari 7 3 4 1.3 2.0 2 2 3 9 14 8
9 20 Salernitana 7 3 4 0.9 2.0 1 3 3 6 14 6
10 7 Bologna 7 4 3 1.4 0.6 5 1 1 10 4 16
11 9 Atalanta 6 3 3 1.5 0.7 3 1 2 9 4 10
12 10 Torino 7 4 3 1.0 0.7 3 3 1 7 5 12
13 13 Lecce 8 5 3 1.1 1.2 3 3 2 9 10 12
14 14 Genoa 7 4 3 1.4 1.3 3 2 2 10 9 11
15 16 Udinese 7 4 3 1.0 1.7 0 5 2 7 12 5
16 1 Juventus 8 6 2 1.5 0.5 6 2 0 12 4 20
17 3 Milan 7 5 2 1.6 0.6 5 0 2 11 4 15
18 11 Monza 7 5 2 1.3 0.7 2 4 1 9 5 10
19 18 Empoli 7 5 2 0.6 1.6 1 1 5 4 11 4
20 8 Lazio 7 6 1 1.1 0.6 4 2 1 8 4 14
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 3 Milan 7 2 5 1.9 1.6 4 2 1 13 11 14
2 5 Napoli 8 3 5 2.0 0.8 5 2 1 16 6 17
3 9 Atalanta 8 3 5 1.5 1.5 3 1 4 12 12 10
4 2 Inter 7 3 4 2.3 0.3 6 1 0 16 2 19
5 4 Roma 7 3 4 1.3 1.4 2 2 3 9 10 8
6 8 Lazio 8 4 4 1.0 1.5 2 1 5 8 12 7
7 15 Sassuolo 6 2 4 1.7 2.2 2 1 3 10 13 7
8 19 Cagliari 7 3 4 0.6 1.7 0 2 5 4 12 2
9 20 Salernitana 7 3 4 0.6 2.0 0 2 5 4 14 2
10 1 Juventus 7 4 3 1.6 0.7 5 1 1 11 5 16
11 6 Fiorentina 7 4 3 1.4 1.3 3 1 3 10 9 10
12 12 Frosinone 7 4 3 0.9 2.0 0 2 5 6 14 2
13 13 Lecce 6 3 3 1.2 1.5 0 4 2 7 9 4
14 14 Genoa 7 4 3 0.7 1.4 1 1 5 5 10 4
15 17 Verona 8 5 3 0.8 1.4 1 2 5 6 11 5
16 18 Empoli 7 4 3 0.7 2.1 2 1 4 5 15 7
17 7 Bologna 7 5 2 0.9 1.0 0 6 1 6 7 6
18 10 Torino 7 5 2 0.9 1.6 2 1 4 6 11 7
19 11 Monza 7 5 2 0.9 1.3 2 2 3 6 9 8
20 16 Udinese 7 5 2 0.7 1.3 1 4 2 5 9 7

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51