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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: R Madley

Watford 4–0 Luton

Full time · half time 2–0 · season 2022/2023

Home ✓ 2.20 fair 2.64
Draw 3.30 fair 3.70
Away 3.40 fair 2.85
Under 2.5 1.72 fair 1.84
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.10 fair 2.19

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Watford Luton
13 Shots 9
8 Shots on target 3
6 Corners 1
9 Fouls 15
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (189 league matches this season so far).
Result Watford to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.97
Expected goals 1.28 – 1.22
Home / Draw / Away
WatfordDrawLuton
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 12.8% 1–0 10.5% 0–1 10%

Statistics 2022/2023, before this match

Watford before this match, all matches
1.33points / match
1.27scored / match
1.33conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 15 played · 19:20
Luton before this match, all matches
1.60points / match
1.33scored / match
0.93conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 15 played · 20:14
Watford all matches all matches Luton

Per match

1.27 Goals scored 1.33
1.33 Goals conceded 0.93
2.60 Total goals 2.27
11.13 Shots 12.73
3.87 Shots on target 3.93
11.93 Shots faced 11.00
4.13 Corners 5.87
5.93 Corners against 5.87
11.20 Fouls 11.07
1.80 Yellow cards 1.27
0.73 1st-half goals scored 0.80
0.87 1st-half goals conceded 0.40

How often Full Time

33% Wins 40%
33% Draws 40%
33% Losses 20%
93% Over 0.5 goals 87%
80% Over 1.5 goals 73%
53% Over 2.5 goals 33%
27% Over 3.5 goals 20%
7% Over 4.5 goals 7%
0% Over 5.5 goals 7%
60% Both teams scored 47%
27% Clean sheets 40%
20% Failed to score 27%

How often Half Time

27% Wins 53%
47% Draws 33%
27% Losses 13%
87% Over 0.5 goals 67%
53% Over 1.5 goals 27%
20% Over 2.5 goals 13%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Watford all matches
Luton all matches
Watford before this match, at home
1.86points / match
1.57scored / match
1.29conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 7 played · 11:9
Luton before this match, away
2.00points / match
1.14scored / match
0.57conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 7 played · 8:4
Watford at home away Luton

Per match

1.57 Goals scored 1.14
1.29 Goals conceded 0.57
2.86 Total goals 1.71
11.29 Shots 9.86
4.43 Shots on target 3.29
10.71 Shots faced 13.00
3.29 Corners 4.00
6.00 Corners against 6.57
12.00 Fouls 12.14
1.86 Yellow cards 1.71
1.00 1st-half goals scored 0.57
0.71 1st-half goals conceded 0.29

How often Full Time

57% Wins 57%
14% Draws 29%
29% Losses 14%
100% Over 0.5 goals 86%
71% Over 1.5 goals 71%
71% Over 2.5 goals 14%
29% Over 3.5 goals 0%
14% Over 4.5 goals 0%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
71% Both teams scored 29%
29% Clean sheets 57%
0% Failed to score 29%

How often Half Time

43% Wins 43%
43% Draws 43%
14% Losses 14%
86% Over 0.5 goals 57%
57% Over 1.5 goals 29%
29% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Watford at home
Luton away

Last 10 matches before this match

Watford all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
19.10.22 Millwall – Watford 3–0 (3–0) 2.603.202.80 2.20 1.66
15.10.22 Watford – Norwich 2–1 (2–1) 2.753.302.55 2.00 1.85
08.10.22 Blackpool – Watford 3–1 (1–1) 3.203.402.25 2.10 1.72
05.10.22 Watford – Swansea 1–2 (1–0) 1.903.404.20 2.02 1.83
02.10.22 Stoke – Watford 0–4 (0–1) 2.503.252.90 2.10 1.72
17.09.22 Watford – Sunderland 2–2 (1–1) 2.003.503.75 2.00 1.80
13.09.22 Blackburn – Watford 2–0 (1–0) 2.903.252.50 2.20 1.66
03.09.22 Rotherham – Watford 1–1 (1–1) 3.253.302.25 2.20 1.66
30.08.22 Watford – Middlesbrough 2–1 (1–1) 2.503.252.90 2.10 1.72
27.08.22 Watford – QPR 2–3 (1–2) 1.903.404.33 2.10 1.72

Luton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
18.10.22 Norwich – Luton 0–1 (0–0) 1.903.504.00 2.00 1.85
15.10.22 Luton – QPR 3–1 (1–0) 2.103.403.50 2.10 1.72
08.10.22 West Brom – Luton 0–0 (0–0) 1.953.603.80 1.98 1.88
04.10.22 Luton – Huddersfield 3–3 (3–2) 1.753.405.25 2.20 1.66
30.09.22 Hull – Luton 0–2 (0–2) 3.203.252.30 2.10 1.72
17.09.22 Luton – Blackburn 2–0 (0–0) 2.303.253.30 2.10 1.72
14.09.22 Luton – Coventry 2–2 (2–1) 2.103.403.50 2.05 1.80
03.09.22 Luton – Wigan 1–2 (1–0) 2.103.303.60 2.30 1.61
30.08.22 Cardiff – Luton 1–2 (0–0) 2.553.202.90 2.50 1.53
26.08.22 Luton – Sheffield United 1–1 (1–0) 3.253.202.30 2.20 1.66

Watford at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
15.10.22 Watford – Norwich 2–1 (2–1) 2.753.302.55 2.00 1.85
05.10.22 Watford – Swansea 1–2 (1–0) 1.903.404.20 2.02 1.83
17.09.22 Watford – Sunderland 2–2 (1–1) 2.003.503.75 2.00 1.80
30.08.22 Watford – Middlesbrough 2–1 (1–1) 2.503.252.90 2.10 1.72
27.08.22 Watford – QPR 2–3 (1–2) 1.903.404.33 2.10 1.72
12.08.22 Watford – Burnley 1–0 (1–0) 2.303.303.10 2.10 1.72
01.08.22 Watford – Sheffield United 1–0 (0–0) 2.303.253.25 2.10 1.72
15.05.22E0 Watford – Leicester 1–5 (1–2) 3.803.501.95 1.72 2.10
11.05.22E0 Watford – Everton 0–0 (0–0) 4.203.601.83 1.94 1.96
30.04.22E0 Watford – Burnley 1–2 (1–0) 2.603.302.75 2.10 1.72

Luton away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
18.10.22 Norwich – Luton 0–1 (0–0) 1.903.504.00 2.00 1.85
08.10.22 West Brom – Luton 0–0 (0–0) 1.953.603.80 1.98 1.88
30.09.22 Hull – Luton 0–2 (0–2) 3.203.252.30 2.10 1.72
30.08.22 Cardiff – Luton 1–2 (0–0) 2.553.202.90 2.50 1.53
20.08.22 Swansea – Luton 0–2 (0–1) 2.453.203.10 2.20 1.66
16.08.22 Bristol City – Luton 2–0 (2–0) 2.623.402.55 2.02 1.83
06.08.22 Burnley – Luton 1–1 (0–1) 1.753.754.60 2.00 1.85
02.05.22 Fulham – Luton 7–0 (2–0) 1.504.206.50 1.72 2.10
18.04.22 Cardiff – Luton 0–1 (0–0) 2.873.102.62 2.20 1.66
11.04.22 Huddersfield – Luton 2–0 (0–0) 2.303.203.25 2.20 1.66

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

No head-to-head in last 5 seasons before this match

England Championship table 2022/2023, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 QPR 16 9 3 4 25 17 +8 30
2 Blackburn 17 10 0 7 22 18 +4 30
3 Burnley 16 7 8 1 29 15 +14 29
4 Sheffield United 16 7 5 4 26 16 +10 26
5 Millwall 16 8 2 6 22 19 +3 26
6 Norwich 16 7 4 5 23 18 +5 25
7 Reading 16 8 1 7 19 23 -4 25
8 Luton 15 6 6 3 20 14 +6 24
9 Swansea 15 7 3 5 20 22 -2 24
10 Preston 17 5 7 5 11 14 -3 22
11 Rotherham 15 5 6 4 18 17 +1 21
12 Bristol City 17 6 3 8 25 26 -1 21
13 Sunderland 16 5 5 6 21 20 +1 20
14 Birmingham 16 5 5 6 16 15 +1 20
15 Watford 15 5 5 5 19 20 -1 20
16 Hull 16 6 2 8 20 31 -11 20
17 Stoke 16 5 4 7 17 20 -3 19
18 Blackpool 16 5 4 7 21 25 -4 19
19 Wigan 16 5 4 7 17 24 -7 19
20 Cardiff 15 5 3 7 12 17 -5 18
21 Middlesbrough 16 4 5 7 19 21 -2 17
22 Coventry 13 4 4 5 12 14 -2 16
23 West Brom 16 2 8 6 20 22 -2 14
24 Huddersfield 15 3 3 9 16 22 -6 12
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Blackburn 9 7 0 2 16 7 +9 21
2 Millwall 9 7 0 2 16 7 +9 21
3 Reading 9 6 1 2 14 9 +5 19
4 QPR 8 5 2 1 14 7 +7 17
5 Sheffield United 8 4 3 1 17 8 +9 15
6 Rotherham 9 4 3 2 16 10 +6 15
7 Norwich 8 4 2 2 14 9 +5 14
8 Burnley 7 3 4 0 14 7 +7 13
9 Bristol City 8 4 1 3 12 8 +4 13
10 Watford 7 4 1 2 11 9 +2 13
11 Middlesbrough 9 3 4 2 10 9 +1 13
12 Swansea 8 4 1 3 11 11 0 13
13 Hull 8 4 0 4 9 14 -5 12
14 Cardiff 7 3 2 2 5 4 +1 11
15 Luton 8 2 4 2 12 10 +2 10
16 Sunderland 8 2 4 2 10 9 +1 10
17 Huddersfield 8 3 1 4 9 8 +1 10
18 Blackpool 8 3 1 4 12 12 0 10
19 Birmingham 7 2 3 2 8 6 +2 9
20 Stoke 8 2 2 4 8 12 -4 8
21 West Brom 8 1 4 3 11 12 -1 7
22 Preston 8 1 4 3 2 6 -4 7
23 Coventry 4 2 0 2 2 2 0 6
24 Wigan 8 1 3 4 6 15 -9 6
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Burnley 9 4 4 1 15 8 +7 16
2 Preston 9 4 3 2 9 8 +1 15
3 Luton 7 4 2 1 8 4 +4 14
4 Wigan 8 4 1 3 11 9 +2 13
5 QPR 8 4 1 3 11 10 +1 13
6 Sheffield United 8 3 2 3 9 8 +1 11
7 Stoke 8 3 2 3 9 8 +1 11
8 Norwich 8 3 2 3 9 9 0 11
9 Birmingham 9 3 2 4 8 9 -1 11
10 Swansea 7 3 2 2 9 11 -2 11
11 Sunderland 8 3 1 4 11 11 0 10
12 Coventry 9 2 4 3 10 12 -2 10
13 Blackpool 8 2 3 3 9 13 -4 9
14 Blackburn 8 3 0 5 6 11 -5 9
15 Bristol City 9 2 2 5 13 18 -5 8
16 Hull 8 2 2 4 11 17 -6 8
17 West Brom 8 1 4 3 9 10 -1 7
18 Watford 8 1 4 3 8 11 -3 7
19 Cardiff 8 2 1 5 7 13 -6 7
20 Rotherham 6 1 3 2 2 7 -5 6
21 Reading 7 2 0 5 5 14 -9 6
22 Millwall 7 1 2 4 6 12 -6 5
23 Middlesbrough 7 1 1 5 9 12 -3 4
24 Huddersfield 7 0 2 5 7 14 -7 2

Watford   Luton

Under / Over goals 2022/2023, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 12 Bristol City 17 7 10 1.5 1.5 6 3 8 25 26 21
2 16 Hull 16 6 10 1.2 1.9 6 2 8 20 31 20
3 1 QPR 16 7 9 1.6 1.1 9 3 4 25 17 30
4 2 Blackburn 17 8 9 1.3 1.1 10 0 7 22 18 30
5 7 Reading 16 7 9 1.2 1.4 8 1 7 19 23 25
6 9 Swansea 15 6 9 1.3 1.5 7 3 5 20 22 24
7 13 Sunderland 16 7 9 1.3 1.2 5 5 6 21 20 20
8 6 Norwich 16 8 8 1.4 1.1 7 4 5 23 18 25
9 15 Watford 15 7 8 1.3 1.3 5 5 5 19 20 20
10 18 Blackpool 16 8 8 1.3 1.6 5 4 7 21 25 19
11 19 Wigan 16 8 8 1.1 1.5 5 4 7 17 24 19
12 21 Middlesbrough 16 8 8 1.2 1.3 4 5 7 19 21 17
13 24 Huddersfield 15 7 8 1.1 1.5 3 3 9 16 22 12
14 4 Sheffield United 16 9 7 1.6 1.0 7 5 4 26 16 26
15 5 Millwall 16 9 7 1.4 1.2 8 2 6 22 19 26
16 11 Rotherham 15 9 6 1.2 1.1 5 6 4 18 17 21
17 17 Stoke 16 10 6 1.1 1.2 5 4 7 17 20 19
18 23 West Brom 16 10 6 1.2 1.4 2 8 6 20 22 14
19 3 Burnley 16 11 5 1.8 0.9 7 8 1 29 15 29
20 8 Luton 15 10 5 1.3 0.9 6 6 3 20 14 24
21 14 Birmingham 16 11 5 1.0 0.9 5 5 6 16 15 20
22 20 Cardiff 15 10 5 0.8 1.1 5 3 7 12 17 18
23 22 Coventry 13 9 4 0.9 1.1 4 4 5 12 14 16
24 10 Preston 17 14 3 0.6 0.8 5 7 5 11 14 22
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 QPR 8 3 5 1.8 0.9 5 2 1 14 7 17
2 2 Blackburn 9 4 5 1.8 0.8 7 0 2 16 7 21
3 4 Sheffield United 8 3 5 2.1 1.0 4 3 1 17 8 15
4 7 Reading 9 4 5 1.6 1.0 6 1 2 14 9 19
5 9 Swansea 8 3 5 1.4 1.4 4 1 3 11 11 13
6 15 Watford 7 2 5 1.6 1.3 4 1 2 11 9 13
7 16 Hull 8 3 5 1.1 1.8 4 0 4 9 14 12
8 5 Millwall 9 5 4 1.8 0.8 7 0 2 16 7 21
9 6 Norwich 8 4 4 1.8 1.1 4 2 2 14 9 14
10 8 Luton 8 4 4 1.5 1.2 2 4 2 12 10 10
11 11 Rotherham 9 5 4 1.8 1.1 4 3 2 16 10 15
12 12 Bristol City 8 4 4 1.5 1.0 4 1 3 12 8 13
13 13 Sunderland 8 4 4 1.2 1.1 2 4 2 10 9 10
14 18 Blackpool 8 4 4 1.5 1.5 3 1 4 12 12 10
15 21 Middlesbrough 9 5 4 1.1 1.0 3 4 2 10 9 13
16 3 Burnley 7 4 3 2.0 1.0 3 4 0 14 7 13
17 14 Birmingham 7 4 3 1.1 0.9 2 3 2 8 6 9
18 17 Stoke 8 5 3 1.0 1.5 2 2 4 8 12 8
19 19 Wigan 8 5 3 0.8 1.9 1 3 4 6 15 6
20 23 West Brom 8 5 3 1.4 1.5 1 4 3 11 12 7
21 24 Huddersfield 8 5 3 1.1 1.0 3 1 4 9 8 10
22 20 Cardiff 7 6 1 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 5 4 11
23 10 Preston 8 8 0 0.2 0.8 1 4 3 2 6 7
24 22 Coventry 4 4 0 0.5 0.5 2 0 2 2 2 6
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 12 Bristol City 9 3 6 1.4 2.0 2 2 5 13 18 8
2 13 Sunderland 8 3 5 1.4 1.4 3 1 4 11 11 10
3 16 Hull 8 3 5 1.4 2.1 2 2 4 11 17 8
4 19 Wigan 8 3 5 1.4 1.1 4 1 3 11 9 13
5 24 Huddersfield 7 2 5 1.0 2.0 0 2 5 7 14 2
6 1 QPR 8 4 4 1.4 1.2 4 1 3 11 10 13
7 2 Blackburn 8 4 4 0.8 1.4 3 0 5 6 11 9
8 6 Norwich 8 4 4 1.1 1.1 3 2 3 9 9 11
9 7 Reading 7 3 4 0.7 2.0 2 0 5 5 14 6
10 9 Swansea 7 3 4 1.3 1.6 3 2 2 9 11 11
11 18 Blackpool 8 4 4 1.1 1.6 2 3 3 9 13 9
12 20 Cardiff 8 4 4 0.9 1.6 2 1 5 7 13 7
13 21 Middlesbrough 7 3 4 1.3 1.7 1 1 5 9 12 4
14 22 Coventry 9 5 4 1.1 1.3 2 4 3 10 12 10
15 5 Millwall 7 4 3 0.9 1.7 1 2 4 6 12 5
16 10 Preston 9 6 3 1.0 0.9 4 3 2 9 8 15
17 15 Watford 8 5 3 1.0 1.4 1 4 3 8 11 7
18 17 Stoke 8 5 3 1.1 1.0 3 2 3 9 8 11
19 23 West Brom 8 5 3 1.1 1.2 1 4 3 9 10 7
20 3 Burnley 9 7 2 1.7 0.9 4 4 1 15 8 16
21 4 Sheffield United 8 6 2 1.1 1.0 3 2 3 9 8 11
22 11 Rotherham 6 4 2 0.3 1.2 1 3 2 2 7 6
23 14 Birmingham 9 7 2 0.9 1.0 3 2 4 8 9 11
24 8 Luton 7 6 1 1.1 0.6 4 2 1 8 4 14

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51