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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: M Donohue

Derby 1–0 Cardiff

Full time · half time 1–0 · season 2024/2025

Home ✓ 2.35 fair 1.80
Draw 3.40 fair 4.37
Away 3.00 fair 4.62
Under 2.5 ✓ 1.73 fair 2.21
Over 2.5 2.10 fair 1.82

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Derby Cardiff
12 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 3
7 Corners 6
12 Fouls 10
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (52 league matches this season so far).
Result Derby to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.83
Expected goals 1.82 – 1.05
Home / Draw / Away
DerbyDrawCardiff
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 10.8% 1–0 10.3% 2–1 9.9%

Statistics 2024/2025, before this match

Derby before this match, all matches
1.50points / match
1.75scored / match
1.50conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 4 played · 7:6
Cardiff before this match, all matches
0.25points / match
0.25scored / match
2.50conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 4 played · 1:10
Derby all matches all matches Cardiff

Per match

1.75 Goals scored 0.25
1.50 Goals conceded 2.50
3.25 Total goals 2.75
10.50 Shots 10.50
4.00 Shots on target 3.50
14.00 Shots faced 9.75
5.00 Corners 4.50
5.50 Corners against 3.50
12.25 Fouls 10.75
2.50 Yellow cards 1.25
0.75 1st-half goals scored 0.00
0.50 1st-half goals conceded 1.00

How often Full Time

50% Wins 0%
0% Draws 25%
50% Losses 75%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
75% Over 1.5 goals 100%
75% Over 2.5 goals 25%
25% Over 3.5 goals 25%
25% Over 4.5 goals 25%
25% Over 5.5 goals 0%
50% Both teams scored 25%
50% Clean sheets 0%
0% Failed to score 75%

How often Half Time

50% Wins 0%
25% Draws 25%
25% Losses 75%
100% Over 0.5 goals 75%
25% Over 1.5 goals 25%
0% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby all matches
Cardiff all matches
Derby before this match, at home
3.00points / match
2.00scored / match
0.00conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 2 played · 4:0
Cardiff before this match, away
0.50points / match
0.50scored / match
3.00conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 2 played · 1:6
Derby at home away Cardiff

Per match

2.00 Goals scored 0.50
0.00 Goals conceded 3.00
2.00 Total goals 3.50
11.00 Shots 9.00
4.50 Shots on target 3.50
16.50 Shots faced 9.00
4.50 Corners 5.00
8.50 Corners against 2.00
14.00 Fouls 10.00
2.00 Yellow cards 1.50
1.00 1st-half goals scored 0.00
0.00 1st-half goals conceded 1.50

How often Full Time

100% Wins 0%
0% Draws 50%
0% Losses 50%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
50% Over 1.5 goals 100%
50% Over 2.5 goals 50%
0% Over 3.5 goals 50%
0% Over 4.5 goals 50%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
0% Both teams scored 50%
100% Clean sheets 0%
0% Failed to score 50%

How often Half Time

100% Wins 0%
0% Draws 0%
0% Losses 100%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
0% Over 1.5 goals 50%
0% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby at home
Cardiff away

Last 10 matches before this match

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
31.08.24 Derby – Bristol City 3–0 (1–0) 2.903.252.40 2.05 1.80
24.08.24 Watford – Derby 2–1 (1–1) 1.853.504.10 1.88 1.98
17.08.24 Derby – Middlesbrough 1–0 (1–0) 3.503.502.00 1.85 2.00
09.08.24 Blackburn – Derby 4–2 (1–0) 2.203.503.10 2.03 1.83
27.04.24E2 Derby – Carlisle 2–0 (1–0) 1.226.5013.00 1.54 2.35
20.04.24E2 Cambridge – Derby 0–1 (0–1) 5.504.001.55 1.90 1.95
13.04.24E2 Derby – Leyton Orient 3–0 (2–0) 1.534.006.50 2.00 1.85
10.04.24E2 Wycombe – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 4.203.751.83 1.98 1.88
02.04.24E2 Portsmouth – Derby 2–2 (1–2) 2.253.303.30 2.08 1.73
29.03.24E2 Derby – Blackpool 1–0 (1–0) 1.853.604.00 2.05 1.75

Cardiff all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
31.08.24 Cardiff – Middlesbrough 0–2 (0–0) 3.903.751.85 1.90 1.95
25.08.24 Swansea – Cardiff 1–1 (1–0) 1.953.503.90 1.88 1.98
17.08.24 Burnley – Cardiff 5–0 (2–0) 1.454.207.00 1.73 2.08
10.08.24 Cardiff – Sunderland 0–2 (0–1) 2.803.302.50 2.20 1.65
04.05.24 Rotherham – Cardiff 5–2 (2–1) 3.403.402.20 2.10 1.73
27.04.24 Cardiff – Middlesbrough 1–4 (0–1) 3.603.602.00 1.93 1.93
20.04.24 Cardiff – Southampton 2–1 (0–1) 8.004.501.40 1.62 2.30
13.04.24 Millwall – Cardiff 3–1 (2–1) 1.833.304.75 2.50 1.53
10.04.24 Birmingham – Cardiff 0–1 (0–0) 1.913.504.20 2.10 1.73
06.04.24 Cardiff – Hull 1–3 (0–2) 3.103.302.38 2.10 1.73

Derby at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
31.08.24 Derby – Bristol City 3–0 (1–0) 2.903.252.40 2.05 1.80
17.08.24 Derby – Middlesbrough 1–0 (1–0) 3.503.502.00 1.85 2.00
27.04.24E2 Derby – Carlisle 2–0 (1–0) 1.226.5013.00 1.54 2.35
13.04.24E2 Derby – Leyton Orient 3–0 (2–0) 1.534.006.50 2.00 1.85
29.03.24E2 Derby – Blackpool 1–0 (1–0) 1.853.604.00 2.05 1.75
16.03.24E2 Derby – Bolton 1–0 (0–0) 2.103.503.50 2.00 1.85
12.03.24E2 Derby – Reading 2–1 (0–0) 1.703.605.25 1.98 1.88
02.03.24E2 Derby – Port Vale 3–0 (2–0) 1.454.337.50 1.83 2.03
27.02.24E2 Derby – Charlton 1–2 (1–0) 1.603.606.50 2.03 1.83
17.02.24E2 Derby – Stevenage 1–0 (0–0) 1.953.603.75 2.05 1.75

Cardiff away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
25.08.24 Swansea – Cardiff 1–1 (1–0) 1.953.503.90 1.88 1.98
17.08.24 Burnley – Cardiff 5–0 (2–0) 1.454.207.00 1.73 2.08
04.05.24 Rotherham – Cardiff 5–2 (2–1) 3.403.402.20 2.10 1.73
13.04.24 Millwall – Cardiff 3–1 (2–1) 1.833.304.75 2.50 1.53
10.04.24 Birmingham – Cardiff 0–1 (0–0) 1.913.504.20 2.10 1.73
01.04.24 Coventry – Cardiff 1–2 (1–1) 1.534.206.25 1.75 2.05
16.03.24 Swansea – Cardiff 2–0 (1–0) 2.053.303.80 2.10 1.70
02.03.24 Bristol City – Cardiff 0–1 (0–0) 1.953.404.00 2.25 1.62
17.02.24 Norwich – Cardiff 4–1 (2–1) 1.803.604.50 1.88 1.98
13.02.24 West Brom – Cardiff 2–0 (1–0) 1.653.755.75 2.25 1.62

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Derby winsDrawsCardiff wins
2matches
1.00goals / match
0%over 2.5
0%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
07.05.22E1 Derby – Cardiff 0–1 (0–0) 2.253.403.20 1.83 2.02
01.03.22E1 Cardiff – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 2.003.304.00 2.37 1.57

England Championship table 2024/2025, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sunderland 4 4 0 0 10 1 +9 12
2 Sheffield United 5 3 2 0 8 3 +5 11
3 Burnley 5 3 1 1 11 3 +8 10
4 West Brom 4 3 1 0 6 2 +4 10
5 Watford 4 3 0 1 8 4 +4 9
6 Oxford 5 3 0 2 9 6 +3 9
7 Blackburn 4 2 2 0 9 6 +3 8
8 Leeds 5 2 2 1 7 4 +3 8
9 Middlesbrough 4 2 1 1 5 3 +2 7
10 Derby 4 2 0 2 7 6 +1 6
11 Stoke 5 2 0 3 3 6 -3 6
12 QPR 4 1 2 1 6 7 -1 5
13 Norwich 4 1 2 1 4 5 -1 5
14 Bristol City 4 1 2 1 6 8 -2 5
15 Swansea 4 1 1 2 4 3 +1 4
16 Millwall 5 1 1 3 8 8 0 4
17 Coventry 4 1 1 2 4 5 -1 4
18 Luton 5 1 1 3 3 7 -4 4
19 Portsmouth 4 0 3 1 6 8 -2 3
20 Hull 5 0 3 2 2 6 -4 3
21 Sheffield Weds 4 1 0 3 4 9 -5 3
22 Preston 4 1 0 3 2 8 -6 3
23 Plymouth 4 0 2 2 2 7 -5 2
24 Cardiff 4 0 1 3 1 10 -9 1
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Oxford 3 3 0 0 6 1 +5 9
2 Sunderland 2 2 0 0 5 0 +5 6
3 Watford 2 2 0 0 5 1 +4 6
4 Derby 2 2 0 0 4 0 +4 6
5 Blackburn 2 2 0 0 6 3 +3 6
6 Burnley 2 1 1 0 6 1 +5 4
7 Swansea 2 1 1 0 4 1 +3 4
8 Bristol City 2 1 1 0 5 4 +1 4
9 Leeds 3 1 1 1 5 4 +1 4
10 Middlesbrough 2 1 1 0 3 2 +1 4
11 Sheffield United 2 1 1 0 3 2 +1 4
12 West Brom 2 1 1 0 1 0 +1 4
13 Sheffield Weds 2 1 0 1 4 2 +2 3
14 Millwall 3 1 0 2 5 4 +1 3
15 Coventry 2 1 0 1 3 3 0 3
16 Stoke 2 1 0 1 2 2 0 3
17 Preston 2 1 0 1 1 2 -1 3
18 Norwich 2 0 2 0 3 3 0 2
19 Hull 3 0 2 1 1 3 -2 2
20 Plymouth 2 0 1 1 1 2 -1 1
21 QPR 2 0 1 1 2 4 -2 1
22 Portsmouth 2 0 1 1 1 3 -2 1
23 Luton 2 0 0 2 2 6 -4 0
24 Cardiff 2 0 0 2 0 4 -4 0
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sheffield United 3 2 1 0 5 1 +4 7
2 Sunderland 2 2 0 0 5 1 +4 6
3 Burnley 3 2 0 1 5 2 +3 6
4 West Brom 2 2 0 0 5 2 +3 6
5 Leeds 2 1 1 0 2 0 +2 4
6 QPR 2 1 1 0 4 3 +1 4
7 Luton 3 1 1 1 1 1 0 4
8 Middlesbrough 2 1 0 1 2 1 +1 3
9 Watford 2 1 0 1 3 3 0 3
10 Norwich 2 1 0 1 1 2 -1 3
11 Stoke 3 1 0 2 1 4 -3 3
12 Portsmouth 2 0 2 0 5 5 0 2
13 Blackburn 2 0 2 0 3 3 0 2
14 Millwall 2 0 1 1 3 4 -1 1
15 Coventry 2 0 1 1 1 2 -1 1
16 Hull 2 0 1 1 1 3 -2 1
17 Bristol City 2 0 1 1 1 4 -3 1
18 Plymouth 2 0 1 1 1 5 -4 1
19 Cardiff 2 0 1 1 1 6 -5 1
20 Oxford 2 0 0 2 3 5 -2 0
21 Swansea 2 0 0 2 0 2 -2 0
22 Derby 2 0 0 2 3 6 -3 0
23 Preston 2 0 0 2 1 6 -5 0
24 Sheffield Weds 2 0 0 2 0 7 -7 0

Derby   Cardiff

Under / Over goals 2024/2025, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Watford 4 1 3 2.0 1.0 3 0 1 8 4 9
2 6 Oxford 5 2 3 1.8 1.2 3 0 2 9 6 9
3 7 Blackburn 4 1 3 2.2 1.5 2 2 0 9 6 8
4 10 Derby 4 1 3 1.8 1.5 2 0 2 7 6 6
5 12 QPR 4 1 3 1.5 1.8 1 2 1 6 7 5
6 16 Millwall 5 2 3 1.6 1.6 1 1 3 8 8 4
7 19 Portsmouth 4 1 3 1.5 2.0 0 3 1 6 8 3
8 21 Sheffield Weds 4 1 3 1.0 2.2 1 0 3 4 9 3
9 1 Sunderland 4 2 2 2.5 0.2 4 0 0 10 1 12
10 3 Burnley 5 3 2 2.2 0.6 3 1 1 11 3 10
11 4 West Brom 4 2 2 1.5 0.5 3 1 0 6 2 10
12 11 Stoke 5 3 2 0.6 1.2 2 0 3 3 6 6
13 14 Bristol City 4 2 2 1.5 2.0 1 2 1 6 8 5
14 18 Luton 5 3 2 0.6 1.4 1 1 3 3 7 4
15 22 Preston 4 2 2 0.5 2.0 1 0 3 2 8 3
16 2 Sheffield United 5 4 1 1.6 0.6 3 2 0 8 3 11
17 8 Leeds 5 4 1 1.4 0.8 2 2 1 7 4 8
18 9 Middlesbrough 4 3 1 1.2 0.8 2 1 1 5 3 7
19 13 Norwich 4 3 1 1.0 1.2 1 2 1 4 5 5
20 15 Swansea 4 3 1 1.0 0.8 1 1 2 4 3 4
21 17 Coventry 4 3 1 1.0 1.2 1 1 2 4 5 4
22 23 Plymouth 4 3 1 0.5 1.8 0 2 2 2 7 2
23 24 Cardiff 4 3 1 0.2 2.5 0 1 3 1 10 1
24 20 Hull 5 5 0 0.4 1.2 0 3 2 2 6 3
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Watford 2 0 2 2.5 0.5 2 0 0 5 1 6
2 7 Blackburn 2 0 2 3.0 1.5 2 0 0 6 3 6
3 16 Millwall 3 1 2 1.7 1.3 1 0 2 5 4 3
4 18 Luton 2 0 2 1.0 3.0 0 0 2 2 6 0
5 1 Sunderland 2 1 1 2.5 0.0 2 0 0 5 0 6
6 2 Sheffield United 2 1 1 1.5 1.0 1 1 0 3 2 4
7 3 Burnley 2 1 1 3.0 0.5 1 1 0 6 1 4
8 6 Oxford 3 2 1 2.0 0.3 3 0 0 6 1 9
9 8 Leeds 3 2 1 1.7 1.3 1 1 1 5 4 4
10 9 Middlesbrough 2 1 1 1.5 1.0 1 1 0 3 2 4
11 10 Derby 2 1 1 2.0 0.0 2 0 0 4 0 6
12 11 Stoke 2 1 1 1.0 1.0 1 0 1 2 2 3
13 12 QPR 2 1 1 1.0 2.0 0 1 1 2 4 1
14 13 Norwich 2 1 1 1.5 1.5 0 2 0 3 3 2
15 14 Bristol City 2 1 1 2.5 2.0 1 1 0 5 4 4
16 15 Swansea 2 1 1 2.0 0.5 1 1 0 4 1 4
17 17 Coventry 2 1 1 1.5 1.5 1 0 1 3 3 3
18 19 Portsmouth 2 1 1 0.5 1.5 0 1 1 1 3 1
19 21 Sheffield Weds 2 1 1 2.0 1.0 1 0 1 4 2 3
20 4 West Brom 2 2 0 0.5 0.0 1 1 0 1 0 4
21 20 Hull 3 3 0 0.3 1.0 0 2 1 1 3 2
22 22 Preston 2 2 0 0.5 1.0 1 0 1 1 2 3
23 23 Plymouth 2 2 0 0.5 1.0 0 1 1 1 2 1
24 24 Cardiff 2 2 0 0.0 2.0 0 0 2 0 4 0
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 4 West Brom 2 0 2 2.5 1.0 2 0 0 5 2 6
2 6 Oxford 2 0 2 1.5 2.5 0 0 2 3 5 0
3 10 Derby 2 0 2 1.5 3.0 0 0 2 3 6 0
4 12 QPR 2 0 2 2.0 1.5 1 1 0 4 3 4
5 19 Portsmouth 2 0 2 2.5 2.5 0 2 0 5 5 2
6 21 Sheffield Weds 2 0 2 0.0 3.5 0 0 2 0 7 0
7 22 Preston 2 0 2 0.5 3.0 0 0 2 1 6 0
8 1 Sunderland 2 1 1 2.5 0.5 2 0 0 5 1 6
9 3 Burnley 3 2 1 1.7 0.7 2 0 1 5 2 6
10 5 Watford 2 1 1 1.5 1.5 1 0 1 3 3 3
11 7 Blackburn 2 1 1 1.5 1.5 0 2 0 3 3 2
12 11 Stoke 3 2 1 0.3 1.3 1 0 2 1 4 3
13 14 Bristol City 2 1 1 0.5 2.0 0 1 1 1 4 1
14 16 Millwall 2 1 1 1.5 2.0 0 1 1 3 4 1
15 23 Plymouth 2 1 1 0.5 2.5 0 1 1 1 5 1
16 24 Cardiff 2 1 1 0.5 3.0 0 1 1 1 6 1
17 2 Sheffield United 3 3 0 1.7 0.3 2 1 0 5 1 7
18 8 Leeds 2 2 0 1.0 0.0 1 1 0 2 0 4
19 9 Middlesbrough 2 2 0 1.0 0.5 1 0 1 2 1 3
20 13 Norwich 2 2 0 0.5 1.0 1 0 1 1 2 3
21 15 Swansea 2 2 0 0.0 1.0 0 0 2 0 2 0
22 17 Coventry 2 2 0 0.5 1.0 0 1 1 1 2 1
23 18 Luton 3 3 0 0.3 0.3 1 1 1 1 1 4
24 20 Hull 2 2 0 0.5 1.5 0 1 1 1 3 1

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51