Loading...
BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England League One · ·Referee: P Wright

Derby 3–1 Lincoln

Full time · half time 1–1 · season 2023/2024

Home ✓ 1.50 fair 2.07
Draw 4.33 fair 3.77
Away 6.00 fair 3.98
Under 2.5 1.83 fair 1.77
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.03 fair 2.30

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Derby Lincoln
10 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 2
4 Corners 3
13 Fouls 6
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (249 league matches this season so far).
Result Derby to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score No fair 1.90
Expected goals 1.45 – 0.97
Home / Draw / Away
DerbyDrawLincoln
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–0 12.9% 1–1 12.5% 2–0 9.4%

Statistics 2023/2024, before this match

Derby before this match, all matches
1.85points / match
1.75scored / match
0.85conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 20 played · 35:17
Lincoln before this match, all matches
1.45points / match
1.23scored / match
0.95conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 22 played · 27:21
Derby all matches all matches Lincoln

Per match

1.75 Goals scored 1.23
0.85 Goals conceded 0.95
2.60 Total goals 2.18
12.75 Shots 10.41
4.65 Shots on target 3.55
9.95 Shots faced 12.09
6.65 Corners 3.68
5.60 Corners against 5.05
10.80 Fouls 10.68
1.85 Yellow cards 1.91
0.80 1st-half goals scored 0.59
0.35 1st-half goals conceded 0.32

How often Full Time

55% Wins 36%
20% Draws 36%
25% Losses 27%
95% Over 0.5 goals 95%
80% Over 1.5 goals 73%
55% Over 2.5 goals 36%
20% Over 3.5 goals 14%
5% Over 4.5 goals 0%
5% Over 5.5 goals 0%
50% Both teams scored 41%
45% Clean sheets 36%
10% Failed to score 27%

How often Half Time

40% Wins 36%
45% Draws 41%
15% Losses 23%
65% Over 0.5 goals 64%
25% Over 1.5 goals 23%
15% Over 2.5 goals 5%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby all matches
Lincoln all matches
Derby before this match, at home
1.80points / match
1.60scored / match
0.70conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 10 played · 16:7
Lincoln before this match, away
1.33points / match
0.92scored / match
1.00conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 12 played · 11:12
Derby at home away Lincoln

Per match

1.60 Goals scored 0.92
0.70 Goals conceded 1.00
2.30 Total goals 1.92
14.00 Shots 9.42
4.20 Shots on target 3.00
8.40 Shots faced 12.50
7.80 Corners 3.67
4.40 Corners against 5.58
10.60 Fouls 11.50
2.40 Yellow cards 2.42
0.60 1st-half goals scored 0.50
0.20 1st-half goals conceded 0.25

How often Full Time

50% Wins 33%
30% Draws 33%
20% Losses 33%
90% Over 0.5 goals 92%
80% Over 1.5 goals 58%
50% Over 2.5 goals 33%
10% Over 3.5 goals 8%
0% Over 4.5 goals 0%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
50% Both teams scored 33%
50% Clean sheets 42%
10% Failed to score 33%

How often Half Time

40% Wins 33%
40% Draws 50%
20% Losses 17%
60% Over 0.5 goals 50%
10% Over 1.5 goals 17%
10% Over 2.5 goals 8%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby at home
Lincoln away

Last 10 matches before this match

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
16.12.23 Derby – Wycombe 1–1 (0–0) 1.504.207.00 1.90 1.95
09.12.23 Leyton Orient – Derby 0–3 (0–1) 3.603.502.05 2.10 1.70
28.11.23 Port Vale – Derby 0–1 (0–0) 3.753.601.95 2.00 1.85
25.11.23 Derby – Bristol Rvs 2–1 (0–0) 1.604.005.25 1.75 2.05
11.11.23 Derby – Barnsley 3–0 (1–0) 1.803.604.50 1.80 2.05
31.10.23 Derby – Northampton 4–0 (3–0) 1.553.806.50 1.85 2.00
28.10.23 Stevenage – Derby 3–1 (2–1) 2.503.302.80 2.08 1.73
24.10.23 Derby – Exeter 2–0 (1–0) 1.574.005.75 1.85 2.00
21.10.23 Shrewsbury – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 4.333.401.85 2.05 1.80
07.10.23 Cheltenham – Derby 1–1 (1–1) 7.004.001.50 1.88 1.98

Lincoln all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
16.12.23 Lincoln – Reading 1–1 (1–0) 2.203.303.40 2.08 1.73
09.12.23 Wigan – Lincoln 0–0 (0–0) 2.253.503.20 2.03 1.83
28.11.23 Cambridge – Lincoln 0–3 (0–2) 2.553.202.88 2.40 1.53
25.11.23 Lincoln – Barnsley 2–2 (1–0) 3.003.402.30 1.88 1.98
21.11.23 Leyton Orient – Lincoln 0–1 (0–0) 1.913.404.20 2.10 1.70
18.11.23 Stevenage – Lincoln 1–0 (0–0) 1.803.405.00 2.15 1.67
11.11.23 Lincoln – Port Vale 1–1 (0–1) 2.383.253.10 2.10 1.70
31.10.23 Lincoln – Oxford 0–2 (0–1) 3.603.402.10 2.10 1.70
28.10.23 Exeter – Lincoln 1–1 (0–1) 2.303.303.10 2.10 1.70
24.10.23 Lincoln – Charlton 3–1 (1–1) 2.903.502.38 2.00 1.85

Derby at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
16.12.23 Derby – Wycombe 1–1 (0–0) 1.504.207.00 1.90 1.95
25.11.23 Derby – Bristol Rvs 2–1 (0–0) 1.604.005.25 1.75 2.05
11.11.23 Derby – Barnsley 3–0 (1–0) 1.803.604.50 1.80 2.05
31.10.23 Derby – Northampton 4–0 (3–0) 1.553.806.50 1.85 2.00
24.10.23 Derby – Exeter 2–0 (1–0) 1.574.005.75 1.85 2.00
30.09.23 Derby – Cambridge 0–0 (0–0) 1.574.205.50 1.88 1.98
16.09.23 Derby – Portsmouth 1–1 (0–0) 2.203.403.30 1.95 1.90
19.08.23 Derby – Fleetwood Town 1–0 (1–0) 1.554.335.75 1.85 2.00
15.08.23 Derby – Oxford 1–2 (0–1) 1.913.604.00 2.05 1.75
05.08.23 Derby – Wigan 1–2 (0–1) 1.673.805.50 1.95 1.90

Lincoln away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.12.23 Wigan – Lincoln 0–0 (0–0) 2.253.503.20 2.03 1.83
28.11.23 Cambridge – Lincoln 0–3 (0–2) 2.553.202.88 2.40 1.53
21.11.23 Leyton Orient – Lincoln 0–1 (0–0) 1.913.404.20 2.10 1.70
18.11.23 Stevenage – Lincoln 1–0 (0–0) 1.803.405.00 2.15 1.67
28.10.23 Exeter – Lincoln 1–1 (0–1) 2.303.303.10 2.10 1.70
21.10.23 Fleetwood Town – Lincoln 0–1 (0–1) 2.153.403.25 2.05 1.80
07.10.23 Peterboro – Lincoln 2–0 (0–0) 1.704.004.75 1.88 1.98
23.09.23 Portsmouth – Lincoln 2–1 (2–1) 1.703.805.00 2.00 1.85
02.09.23 Bristol Rvs – Lincoln 1–1 (0–0) 2.503.252.88 1.93 1.93
19.08.23 Shrewsbury – Lincoln 0–1 (0–0) 2.603.202.80 2.25 1.62

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Derby winsDrawsLincoln wins
2matches
2.00goals / match
0%over 2.5
50%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
14.02.23E2 Derby – Lincoln 1–1 (0–1) 1.444.337.50 2.00 1.85
13.09.22E2 Lincoln – Derby 2–0 (1–0) 4.503.501.83 2.15 1.66

England League One table 2023/2024, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Portsmouth 21 14 6 1 37 16 +21 48
2 Peterboro 21 12 5 4 41 20 +21 41
3 Oxford 21 12 4 5 35 22 +13 40
4 Stevenage 22 11 7 4 32 21 +11 40
5 Bolton 20 12 3 5 38 22 +16 39
6 Derby 20 11 4 5 35 17 +18 37
7 Barnsley 20 10 5 5 38 22 +16 35
8 Blackpool 22 9 6 7 37 27 +10 33
9 Lincoln 22 8 8 6 27 21 +6 32
10 Wigan 21 9 4 8 32 26 +6 31
11 Charlton 20 7 7 6 33 28 +5 28
12 Bristol Rvs 20 7 7 6 27 25 +2 28
13 Northampton 21 8 3 10 26 28 -2 27
14 Shrewsbury 22 8 3 11 13 30 -17 27
15 Leyton Orient 21 6 7 8 20 28 -8 25
16 Port Vale 20 7 4 9 18 29 -11 25
17 Cambridge 21 6 6 9 18 28 -10 24
18 Wycombe 20 6 5 9 24 29 -5 23
19 Burton 21 5 5 11 17 32 -15 20
20 Reading 21 5 4 12 25 35 -10 19
21 Exeter 20 5 4 11 13 31 -18 19
22 Carlisle 21 3 7 11 17 31 -14 16
23 Fleetwood Town 20 4 4 12 18 35 -17 16
24 Cheltenham 20 3 4 13 12 30 -18 13
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Portsmouth 11 7 3 1 16 10 +6 24
2 Peterboro 10 7 2 1 25 7 +18 23
3 Blackpool 12 7 2 3 25 13 +12 23
4 Bolton 11 7 1 3 24 15 +9 22
5 Oxford 10 6 3 1 18 7 +11 21
6 Charlton 11 6 2 3 23 15 +8 20
7 Wigan 10 6 1 3 16 10 +6 19
8 Shrewsbury 11 6 1 4 10 12 -2 19
9 Derby 10 5 3 2 16 7 +9 18
10 Stevenage 11 4 6 1 14 10 +4 18
11 Cambridge 11 5 3 3 11 12 -1 18
12 Northampton 11 5 2 4 16 13 +3 17
13 Lincoln 10 4 4 2 16 9 +7 16
14 Reading 11 4 3 4 16 13 +3 15
15 Barnsley 10 4 2 4 20 13 +7 14
16 Bristol Rvs 9 3 5 1 15 9 +6 14
17 Port Vale 9 4 0 5 9 10 -1 12
18 Burton 10 3 3 4 11 13 -2 12
19 Carlisle 11 2 5 4 10 13 -3 11
20 Wycombe 10 3 2 5 10 13 -3 11
21 Leyton Orient 10 3 2 5 9 17 -8 11
22 Exeter 10 2 3 5 5 10 -5 9
23 Cheltenham 10 2 2 6 6 15 -9 8
24 Fleetwood Town 10 2 1 7 8 18 -10 7
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Portsmouth 10 7 3 0 21 6 +15 24
2 Stevenage 11 7 1 3 18 11 +7 22
3 Barnsley 10 6 3 1 18 9 +9 21
4 Derby 10 6 1 3 19 10 +9 19
5 Oxford 11 6 1 4 17 15 +2 19
6 Peterboro 11 5 3 3 16 13 +3 18
7 Bolton 9 5 2 2 14 7 +7 17
8 Lincoln 12 4 4 4 11 12 -1 16
9 Leyton Orient 11 3 5 3 11 11 0 14
10 Bristol Rvs 11 4 2 5 12 16 -4 14
11 Port Vale 11 3 4 4 9 19 -10 13
12 Wigan 11 3 3 5 16 16 0 12
13 Wycombe 10 3 3 4 14 16 -2 12
14 Blackpool 10 2 4 4 12 14 -2 10
15 Northampton 10 3 1 6 10 15 -5 10
16 Exeter 10 3 1 6 8 21 -13 10
17 Fleetwood Town 10 2 3 5 10 17 -7 9
18 Charlton 9 1 5 3 10 13 -3 8
19 Burton 11 2 2 7 6 19 -13 8
20 Shrewsbury 11 2 2 7 3 18 -15 8
21 Cambridge 10 1 3 6 7 16 -9 6
22 Cheltenham 10 1 2 7 6 15 -9 5
23 Carlisle 10 1 2 7 7 18 -11 5
24 Reading 10 1 1 8 9 22 -13 4

Derby   Lincoln

Under / Over goals 2023/2024, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 8 Blackpool 22 8 14 1.7 1.2 9 6 7 37 27 33
2 3 Oxford 21 8 13 1.7 1.0 12 4 5 35 22 40
3 11 Charlton 20 7 13 1.6 1.4 7 7 6 33 28 28
4 13 Northampton 21 8 13 1.2 1.3 8 3 10 26 28 27
5 5 Bolton 20 8 12 1.9 1.1 12 3 5 38 22 39
6 10 Wigan 21 9 12 1.5 1.2 9 4 8 32 26 31
7 20 Reading 21 9 12 1.2 1.7 5 4 12 25 35 19
8 1 Portsmouth 21 10 11 1.8 0.8 14 6 1 37 16 48
9 2 Peterboro 21 10 11 2.0 1.0 12 5 4 41 20 41
10 4 Stevenage 22 11 11 1.5 1.0 11 7 4 32 21 40
11 6 Derby 20 9 11 1.8 0.8 11 4 5 35 17 37
12 7 Barnsley 20 9 11 1.9 1.1 10 5 5 38 22 35
13 18 Wycombe 20 9 11 1.2 1.4 6 5 9 24 29 23
14 23 Fleetwood Town 20 9 11 0.9 1.8 4 4 12 18 35 16
15 19 Burton 21 11 10 0.8 1.5 5 5 11 17 32 20
16 12 Bristol Rvs 20 11 9 1.4 1.2 7 7 6 27 25 28
17 15 Leyton Orient 21 12 9 1.0 1.3 6 7 8 20 28 25
18 17 Cambridge 21 12 9 0.9 1.3 6 6 9 18 28 24
19 9 Lincoln 22 14 8 1.2 1.0 8 8 6 27 21 32
20 16 Port Vale 20 12 8 0.9 1.4 7 4 9 18 29 25
21 14 Shrewsbury 22 15 7 0.6 1.4 8 3 11 13 30 27
22 21 Exeter 20 13 7 0.7 1.6 5 4 11 13 31 19
23 24 Cheltenham 20 13 7 0.6 1.5 3 4 13 12 30 13
24 22 Carlisle 21 15 6 0.8 1.5 3 7 11 17 31 16
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Bolton 11 2 9 2.2 1.4 7 1 3 24 15 22
2 8 Blackpool 12 3 9 2.1 1.1 7 2 3 25 13 23
3 11 Charlton 11 2 9 2.1 1.4 6 2 3 23 15 20
4 3 Oxford 10 3 7 1.8 0.7 6 3 1 18 7 21
5 13 Northampton 11 4 7 1.5 1.2 5 2 4 16 13 17
6 2 Peterboro 10 4 6 2.5 0.7 7 2 1 25 7 23
7 7 Barnsley 10 4 6 2.0 1.3 4 2 4 20 13 14
8 10 Wigan 10 4 6 1.6 1.0 6 1 3 16 10 19
9 1 Portsmouth 11 6 5 1.5 0.9 7 3 1 16 10 24
10 6 Derby 10 5 5 1.6 0.7 5 3 2 16 7 18
11 15 Leyton Orient 10 5 5 0.9 1.7 3 2 5 9 17 11
12 19 Burton 10 5 5 1.1 1.3 3 3 4 11 13 12
13 20 Reading 11 6 5 1.5 1.2 4 3 4 16 13 15
14 23 Fleetwood Town 10 5 5 0.8 1.8 2 1 7 8 18 7
15 4 Stevenage 11 7 4 1.3 0.9 4 6 1 14 10 18
16 9 Lincoln 10 6 4 1.6 0.9 4 4 2 16 9 16
17 12 Bristol Rvs 9 5 4 1.7 1.0 3 5 1 15 9 14
18 14 Shrewsbury 11 7 4 0.9 1.1 6 1 4 10 12 19
19 17 Cambridge 11 7 4 1.0 1.1 5 3 3 11 12 18
20 18 Wycombe 10 6 4 1.0 1.3 3 2 5 10 13 11
21 16 Port Vale 9 6 3 1.0 1.1 4 0 5 9 10 12
22 24 Cheltenham 10 7 3 0.6 1.5 2 2 6 6 15 8
23 21 Exeter 10 8 2 0.5 1.0 2 3 5 5 10 9
24 22 Carlisle 11 9 2 0.9 1.2 2 5 4 10 13 11
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 4 Stevenage 11 4 7 1.6 1.0 7 1 3 18 11 22
2 18 Wycombe 10 3 7 1.4 1.6 3 3 4 14 16 12
3 20 Reading 10 3 7 0.9 2.2 1 1 8 9 22 4
4 1 Portsmouth 10 4 6 2.1 0.6 7 3 0 21 6 24
5 3 Oxford 11 5 6 1.5 1.4 6 1 4 17 15 19
6 6 Derby 10 4 6 1.9 1.0 6 1 3 19 10 19
7 10 Wigan 11 5 6 1.5 1.5 3 3 5 16 16 12
8 13 Northampton 10 4 6 1.0 1.5 3 1 6 10 15 10
9 23 Fleetwood Town 10 4 6 1.0 1.7 2 3 5 10 17 9
10 2 Peterboro 11 6 5 1.5 1.2 5 3 3 16 13 18
11 7 Barnsley 10 5 5 1.8 0.9 6 3 1 18 9 21
12 8 Blackpool 10 5 5 1.2 1.4 2 4 4 12 14 10
13 12 Bristol Rvs 11 6 5 1.1 1.5 4 2 5 12 16 14
14 16 Port Vale 11 6 5 0.8 1.7 3 4 4 9 19 13
15 17 Cambridge 10 5 5 0.7 1.6 1 3 6 7 16 6
16 19 Burton 11 6 5 0.5 1.7 2 2 7 6 19 8
17 21 Exeter 10 5 5 0.8 2.1 3 1 6 8 21 10
18 9 Lincoln 12 8 4 0.9 1.0 4 4 4 11 12 16
19 11 Charlton 9 5 4 1.1 1.4 1 5 3 10 13 8
20 15 Leyton Orient 11 7 4 1.0 1.0 3 5 3 11 11 14
21 22 Carlisle 10 6 4 0.7 1.8 1 2 7 7 18 5
22 24 Cheltenham 10 6 4 0.6 1.5 1 2 7 6 15 5
23 5 Bolton 9 6 3 1.6 0.8 5 2 2 14 7 17
24 14 Shrewsbury 11 8 3 0.3 1.6 2 2 7 3 18 8

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51