Swindon 1–2 Carlisle – England League Two, 11 Mar 2023

Match facts

Swindon Carlisle

10 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 3

3 Corners 6

10 Fouls 12

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (410 league matches this season so far).

Result Carlisle to win

Goals Over 2.5

Both teams score Yes fair 1.84

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.34

Home / Draw / Away

37% 26% 37%

SwindonDrawCarlisle

Under / Over 2.5 goals

50% 50%

Under 2.5Over 2.5

Both teams to score

46% 55%

NoYes

Total goals in the match

7% 0

18% 1

25% 2

22% 3

15% 4

13% 5+

Most likely scores

1–1 12.3% 0–1 9.2% 1–0 9.2%

Statistics 2022/2023, before this match

Swindon before this match, all matches

1.48points / match

1.33scored / match

1.09conceded / match

13 10 10

WonDrawnLost 33 played · 44:36

Carlisle before this match, all matches

1.79points / match

1.65scored / match

1.00conceded / match

17 10 7

WonDrawnLost 34 played · 56:34

Swindon all matches all matches Carlisle

Per match

1.33 Goals scored 1.65

1.09 Goals conceded 1.00

2.42 Total goals 2.65

12.97 Shots 12.18

4.58 Shots on target 4.53

11.52 Shots faced 10.41

5.76 Corners 5.32

4.88 Corners against 4.09

9.39 Fouls 9.15

1.82 Yellow cards 1.41

0.64 1st-half goals scored 0.82

0.61 1st-half goals conceded 0.53

How often Full Time

39% Wins 50%

30% Draws 29%

30% Losses 21%

91% Over 0.5 goals 88%

73% Over 1.5 goals 71%

45% Over 2.5 goals 47%

12% Over 3.5 goals 26%

12% Over 4.5 goals 18%

6% Over 5.5 goals 12%

52% Both teams scored 50%

30% Clean sheets 41%

27% Failed to score 21%

How often Half Time

24% Wins 44%

55% Draws 35%

21% Losses 21%

67% Over 0.5 goals 79%

33% Over 1.5 goals 35%

15% Over 2.5 goals 15%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Swindon all matches

2

1

W

1

L

5

W

3

D

1

2

L

2

L

1

2

L

2

1

W

3

W

1

D

Carlisle all matches

2

W

3

1

W

1

W

5

1

W

1

L

D

4

L

1

W

5

2

W

2

W

Swindon before this match, at home

1.63points / match

1.56scored / match

0.94conceded / match

7 5 4

WonDrawnLost 16 played · 25:15

Carlisle before this match, away

1.63points / match

1.75scored / match

1.13conceded / match

7 5 4

WonDrawnLost 16 played · 28:18

Swindon at home away Carlisle

Per match

1.56 Goals scored 1.75

0.94 Goals conceded 1.13

2.50 Total goals 2.88

14.31 Shots 10.81

5.19 Shots on target 4.06

9.63 Shots faced 13.00

6.63 Corners 4.69

4.06 Corners against 4.81

8.25 Fouls 9.88

1.88 Yellow cards 1.56

0.75 1st-half goals scored 0.81

0.63 1st-half goals conceded 0.50

How often Full Time

44% Wins 44%

31% Draws 31%

25% Losses 25%

88% Over 0.5 goals 88%

69% Over 1.5 goals 81%

50% Over 2.5 goals 56%

19% Over 3.5 goals 25%

19% Over 4.5 goals 19%

6% Over 5.5 goals 13%

44% Both teams scored 63%

44% Clean sheets 31%

25% Failed to score 19%

How often Half Time

25% Wins 38%

63% Draws 31%

13% Losses 31%

63% Over 0.5 goals 81%

44% Over 1.5 goals 31%

19% Over 2.5 goals 13%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Swindon at home

1

W

2

1

W

1

D

1

L

D

1

2

L

5

W

3

D

2

L

3

W

Carlisle away

2

L

2

W

3

D

4

1

W

1

2

L

3

W

1

2

L

1

W

D

5

2

W

Last 10 matches before this match

Swindon all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
04.03.23	Leyton Orient – Swindon	1–1 (1–0)	2.00	3.10	4.00	2.25	1.62
25.02.23	Swindon – Harrogate	3–0 (2–0)	1.75	3.60	4.75	1.85	1.95
18.02.23	Salford – Swindon	1–2 (1–1)	2.30	3.50	3.00	1.90	1.95
14.02.23	Sutton – Swindon	2–1 (0–1)	2.20	3.20	3.50	2.08	1.73
11.02.23	Swindon – Doncaster	0–2 (0–0)	2.00	3.50	3.75	2.00	1.80
04.02.23	Newport County – Swindon	2–1 (0–0)	2.70	3.20	2.75	2.00	1.80
28.01.23	Swindon – Gillingham	3–3 (1–3)	1.83	3.50	4.50	2.15	1.67
14.01.23	Swindon – Grimsby	5–0 (1–0)	2.55	3.10	3.00	2.08	1.73
01.01.23	Colchester – Swindon	1–0 (1–0)	3.10	3.40	2.30	2.08	1.73
29.12.22	Northampton – Swindon	1–2 (0–1)	2.10	3.40	3.60	2.00	1.85

Carlisle all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
04.03.23	Carlisle – Grimsby	2–0 (2–0)	1.73	3.75	5.00	2.20	1.65
25.02.23	Crawley Town – Carlisle	2–5 (0–4)	4.00	3.25	2.00	2.15	1.67
18.02.23	Carlisle – Colchester	1–0 (1–0)	2.05	3.40	3.60	2.30	1.60
14.02.23	Carlisle – Mansfield	0–4 (0–4)	2.38	3.30	3.00	2.20	1.65
11.02.23	AFC Wimbledon – Carlisle	0–0 (0–0)	3.00	3.40	2.38	2.20	1.65
04.02.23	Carlisle – Harrogate	0–1 (0–0)	1.62	4.00	5.25	1.90	1.95
31.01.23	Carlisle – Barrow	5–1 (1–0)	2.10	3.25	3.75	2.35	1.57
28.01.23	Rochdale – Carlisle	0–1 (0–1)	3.75	3.50	2.00	2.08	1.73
24.01.23	Carlisle – Hartlepool	3–1 (2–1)	1.60	3.60	6.50	1.98	1.88
14.01.23	Carlisle – Newport County	2–0 (1–0)	2.15	3.30	3.50	2.20	1.65

Swindon at home

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
25.02.23	Swindon – Harrogate	3–0 (2–0)	1.75	3.60	4.75	1.85	1.95
11.02.23	Swindon – Doncaster	0–2 (0–0)	2.00	3.50	3.75	2.00	1.80
28.01.23	Swindon – Gillingham	3–3 (1–3)	1.83	3.50	4.50	2.15	1.67
14.01.23	Swindon – Grimsby	5–0 (1–0)	2.55	3.10	3.00	2.08	1.73
26.12.22	Swindon – Walsall	1–2 (1–1)	2.25	3.10	3.50	2.20	1.65
10.12.22	Swindon – AFC Wimbledon	0–0 (0–0)	2.00	3.60	3.60	1.98	1.88
19.11.22	Swindon – Crewe	0–1 (0–1)	1.80	3.75	4.50	1.85	2.00
12.11.22	Swindon – Tranmere	1–1 (1–1)	2.25	3.40	3.20	2.02	1.83
22.10.22	Swindon – Hartlepool	2–1 (2–1)	1.66	3.80	5.25	1.93	1.93
15.10.22	Swindon – Colchester	1–0 (0–0)	2.00	3.50	3.80	1.98	1.88

Carlisle away

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
25.02.23	Crawley Town – Carlisle	2–5 (0–4)	4.00	3.25	2.00	2.15	1.67
11.02.23	AFC Wimbledon – Carlisle	0–0 (0–0)	3.00	3.40	2.38	2.20	1.65
28.01.23	Rochdale – Carlisle	0–1 (0–1)	3.75	3.50	2.00	2.08	1.73
01.01.23	Doncaster – Carlisle	2–1 (1–0)	2.63	3.40	2.63	2.05	1.75
29.12.22	Crewe – Carlisle	0–3 (0–1)	3.50	3.25	2.20	2.10	1.70
20.12.22	Northampton – Carlisle	2–1 (0–0)	2.10	3.30	3.60	2.15	1.67
19.11.22	Salford – Carlisle	1–4 (0–1)	2.37	3.25	3.10	2.10	1.70
08.11.22	Harrogate – Carlisle	3–3 (1–1)	3.20	3.50	2.20	2.07	1.72
29.10.22	Tranmere – Carlisle	0–2 (0–1)	2.10	3.40	3.50	2.15	1.66
25.10.22	Stockport – Carlisle	2–0 (1–0)	1.90	3.40	4.00	2.25	1.61

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

1 1 1

Swindon winsDrawsCarlisle wins

3matches

2.67goals / match

67%over 2.5

67%both scored

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
13.08.22E3	Carlisle – Swindon	1–1 (1–1)	2.55	3.30	2.80	2.05	1.80
19.02.22E3	Carlisle – Swindon	0–3 (0–1)	3.30	3.40	2.20	2.15	1.66
14.08.21E3	Swindon – Carlisle	1–2 (1–2)	2.90	3.30	2.45	2.10	1.70

England League Two table 2022/2023, before this match

All matches – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Leyton Orient	35	21	9	5	46	22	+24	72
2	Carlisle	34	17	10	7	56	34	+22	61
3	Stevenage	33	17	9	7	46	30	+16	60
4	Northampton	34	16	11	7	47	32	+15	59
5	Bradford	34	16	10	8	42	29	+13	58
6	Stockport	35	16	8	11	48	31	+17	56
7	Salford	36	16	8	12	54	41	+13	56
8	Mansfield	33	16	7	10	54	43	+11	55
9	Sutton	35	15	9	11	40	39	+1	54
10	Barrow	35	15	6	14	38	41	-3	51
11	Swindon	33	13	10	10	44	36	+8	49
12	Tranmere	35	13	9	13	35	33	+2	48
13	Doncaster	34	14	5	15	36	45	-9	47
14	Walsall	33	10	14	9	35	29	+6	44
15	AFC Wimbledon	34	10	12	12	36	39	-3	42
16	Crewe	34	9	15	10	33	43	-10	42
17	Grimsby	32	10	9	13	35	41	-6	39
18	Newport County	34	9	11	14	33	40	-7	38
19	Harrogate	35	8	11	16	40	51	-11	35
20	Colchester	35	9	8	18	31	42	-11	35
21	Gillingham	34	8	11	15	21	37	-16	35
22	Hartlepool	35	6	11	18	37	63	-26	29
23	Crawley Town	33	6	8	19	34	57	-23	26
24	Rochdale	35	6	7	22	29	52	-23	25

Home – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Leyton Orient	18	13	4	1	25	6	+19	43
2	Stevenage	16	12	1	3	29	10	+19	37
3	Sutton	18	11	4	3	24	14	+10	37
4	Carlisle	18	10	5	3	28	16	+12	35
5	Stockport	18	9	6	3	24	13	+11	33
6	Northampton	17	8	5	4	22	15	+7	29
7	Tranmere	18	8	5	5	22	15	+7	29
8	Barrow	17	9	2	6	21	15	+6	29
9	Salford	18	8	5	5	23	18	+5	29
10	Doncaster	17	9	1	7	22	20	+2	28
11	Bradford	17	7	6	4	22	15	+7	27
12	Walsall	17	7	6	4	21	14	+7	27
13	Crewe	19	7	6	6	22	23	-1	27
14	Swindon	16	7	5	4	25	15	+10	26
15	Mansfield	16	7	5	4	29	25	+4	26
16	AFC Wimbledon	17	6	6	5	20	19	+1	24
17	Gillingham	16	6	4	6	11	16	-5	22
18	Crawley Town	15	6	2	7	22	26	-4	20
19	Colchester	17	4	7	6	16	18	-2	19
20	Harrogate	18	4	7	7	22	27	-5	19
21	Grimsby	16	3	8	5	16	19	-3	17
22	Newport County	16	4	4	8	15	21	-6	16
23	Hartlepool	17	3	7	7	19	29	-10	16
24	Rochdale	18	3	3	12	15	26	-11	12

Away – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bradford	17	9	4	4	20	14	+6	31
2	Northampton	17	8	6	3	25	17	+8	30
3	Mansfield	17	9	2	6	25	18	+7	29
4	Leyton Orient	17	8	5	4	21	16	+5	29
5	Salford	18	8	3	7	31	23	+8	27
6	Carlisle	16	7	5	4	28	18	+10	26
7	Stockport	17	7	2	8	24	18	+6	23
8	Swindon	17	6	5	6	19	21	-2	23
9	Stevenage	17	5	8	4	17	20	-3	23
10	Newport County	18	5	7	6	18	19	-1	22
11	Grimsby	16	7	1	8	19	22	-3	22
12	Barrow	18	6	4	8	17	26	-9	22
13	Tranmere	17	5	4	8	13	18	-5	19
14	Doncaster	17	5	4	8	14	25	-11	19
15	AFC Wimbledon	17	4	6	7	16	20	-4	18
16	Walsall	16	3	8	5	14	15	-1	17
17	Sutton	17	4	5	8	16	25	-9	17
18	Harrogate	17	4	4	9	18	24	-6	16
19	Colchester	18	5	1	12	15	24	-9	16
20	Crewe	15	2	9	4	11	20	-9	15
21	Gillingham	18	2	7	9	10	21	-11	13
22	Rochdale	17	3	4	10	14	26	-12	13
23	Hartlepool	18	3	4	11	18	34	-16	13
24	Crawley Town	18	0	6	12	12	31	-19	6

Swindon Carlisle

Under / Over goals 2022/2023, before this match

All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1	22	Hartlepool	35	15	20	1.1	1.8	6	11	18	37	63	29
2	8	Mansfield	33	14	19	1.6	1.3	16	7	10	54	43	55
3	19	Harrogate	35	17	18	1.1	1.5	8	11	16	40	51	35
4	23	Crawley Town	33	15	18	1.0	1.7	6	8	19	34	57	26
5	2	Carlisle	34	18	16	1.6	1.0	17	10	7	56	34	61
6	7	Salford	36	20	16	1.5	1.1	16	8	12	54	41	56
7	4	Northampton	34	19	15	1.4	0.9	16	11	7	47	32	59
8	6	Stockport	35	20	15	1.4	0.9	16	8	11	48	31	56
9	9	Sutton	35	20	15	1.1	1.1	15	9	11	40	39	54
10	11	Swindon	33	18	15	1.3	1.1	13	10	10	44	36	49
11	13	Doncaster	34	19	15	1.1	1.3	14	5	15	36	45	47
12	17	Grimsby	32	17	15	1.1	1.3	10	9	13	35	41	39
13	24	Rochdale	35	20	15	0.8	1.5	6	7	22	29	52	25
14	3	Stevenage	33	19	14	1.4	0.9	17	9	7	46	30	60
15	15	AFC Wimbledon	34	20	14	1.1	1.1	10	12	12	36	39	42
16	16	Crewe	34	20	14	1.0	1.3	9	15	10	33	43	42
17	5	Bradford	34	21	13	1.2	0.9	16	10	8	42	29	58
18	10	Barrow	35	23	12	1.1	1.2	15	6	14	38	41	51
19	20	Colchester	35	23	12	0.9	1.2	9	8	18	31	42	35
20	14	Walsall	33	22	11	1.1	0.9	10	14	9	35	29	44
21	18	Newport County	34	23	11	1.0	1.2	9	11	14	33	40	38
22	12	Tranmere	35	25	10	1.0	0.9	13	9	13	35	33	48
23	1	Leyton Orient	35	26	9	1.3	0.6	21	9	5	46	22	72
24	21	Gillingham	34	28	6	0.6	1.1	8	11	15	21	37	35

Home – Under/Over goals
#
1	8	Mansfield	16	6	10	1.8	1.6	7	5	4	29	25	26
2	19	Harrogate	18	8	10	1.2	1.5	4	7	7	22	27	19
3	22	Hartlepool	17	7	10	1.1	1.7	3	7	7	19	29	16
4	4	Northampton	17	8	9	1.3	0.9	8	5	4	22	15	29
5	23	Crawley Town	15	6	9	1.5	1.7	6	2	7	22	26	20
6	3	Stevenage	16	8	8	1.8	0.6	12	1	3	29	10	37
7	11	Swindon	16	8	8	1.6	0.9	7	5	4	25	15	26
8	16	Crewe	19	11	8	1.2	1.2	7	6	6	22	23	27
9	24	Rochdale	18	10	8	0.8	1.4	3	3	12	15	26	12
10	2	Carlisle	18	11	7	1.6	0.9	10	5	3	28	16	35
11	7	Salford	18	11	7	1.3	1.0	8	5	5	23	18	29
12	9	Sutton	18	11	7	1.3	0.8	11	4	3	24	14	37
13	13	Doncaster	17	10	7	1.3	1.2	9	1	7	22	20	28
14	17	Grimsby	16	9	7	1.0	1.2	3	8	5	16	19	17
15	5	Bradford	17	11	6	1.3	0.9	7	6	4	22	15	27
16	6	Stockport	18	12	6	1.3	0.7	9	6	3	24	13	33
17	10	Barrow	17	11	6	1.2	0.9	9	2	6	21	15	29
18	12	Tranmere	18	12	6	1.2	0.8	8	5	5	22	15	29
19	14	Walsall	17	11	6	1.2	0.8	7	6	4	21	14	27
20	15	AFC Wimbledon	17	11	6	1.2	1.1	6	6	5	20	19	24
21	18	Newport County	16	10	6	0.9	1.3	4	4	8	15	21	16
22	20	Colchester	17	12	5	0.9	1.1	4	7	6	16	18	19
23	1	Leyton Orient	18	14	4	1.4	0.3	13	4	1	25	6	43
24	21	Gillingham	16	13	3	0.7	1.0	6	4	6	11	16	22

Away – Under/Over goals
#
1	22	Hartlepool	18	8	10	1.0	1.9	3	4	11	18	34	13
2	2	Carlisle	16	7	9	1.8	1.1	7	5	4	28	18	26
3	6	Stockport	17	8	9	1.4	1.1	7	2	8	24	18	23
4	7	Salford	18	9	9	1.7	1.3	8	3	7	31	23	27
5	8	Mansfield	17	8	9	1.5	1.1	9	2	6	25	18	29
6	23	Crawley Town	18	9	9	0.7	1.7	0	6	12	12	31	6
7	9	Sutton	17	9	8	0.9	1.5	4	5	8	16	25	17
8	13	Doncaster	17	9	8	0.8	1.5	5	4	8	14	25	19
9	15	AFC Wimbledon	17	9	8	0.9	1.2	4	6	7	16	20	18
10	17	Grimsby	16	8	8	1.2	1.4	7	1	8	19	22	22
11	19	Harrogate	17	9	8	1.1	1.4	4	4	9	18	24	16
12	5	Bradford	17	10	7	1.2	0.8	9	4	4	20	14	31
13	11	Swindon	17	10	7	1.1	1.2	6	5	6	19	21	23
14	20	Colchester	18	11	7	0.8	1.3	5	1	12	15	24	16
15	24	Rochdale	17	10	7	0.8	1.5	3	4	10	14	26	13
16	3	Stevenage	17	11	6	1.0	1.2	5	8	4	17	20	23
17	4	Northampton	17	11	6	1.5	1.0	8	6	3	25	17	30
18	10	Barrow	18	12	6	0.9	1.4	6	4	8	17	26	22
19	16	Crewe	15	9	6	0.7	1.3	2	9	4	11	20	15
20	1	Leyton Orient	17	12	5	1.2	0.9	8	5	4	21	16	29
21	14	Walsall	16	11	5	0.9	0.9	3	8	5	14	15	17
22	18	Newport County	18	13	5	1.0	1.1	5	7	6	18	19	22
23	12	Tranmere	17	13	4	0.8	1.1	5	4	8	13	18	19
24	21	Gillingham	18	15	3	0.6	1.2	2	7	9	10	21	13

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.