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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: S Martin

Luton 3–0 Watford

Full time · half time 1–0 · season 2024/2025

Home ✓ 2.00 fair 2.19
Draw 3.20 fair 4.10
Away 4.00 fair 3.35
Under 2.5 2.10 fair 2.23
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.73 fair 1.81

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Luton Watford
13 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 1
11 Corners 4
22 Fouls 20
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (109 league matches this season so far).
Result Luton to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.74
Expected goals 1.62 – 1.27
Home / Draw / Away
LutonDrawWatford
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.4% 2–1 9.3% 1–0 9%

Statistics 2024/2025, before this match

Luton before this match, all matches
0.89points / match
0.89scored / match
1.67conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 9 played · 8:15
Watford before this match, all matches
1.78points / match
1.56scored / match
1.56conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 9 played · 14:14
Luton all matches all matches Watford

Per match

0.89 Goals scored 1.56
1.67 Goals conceded 1.56
2.56 Total goals 3.11
12.00 Shots 12.67
3.67 Shots on target 4.56
13.22 Shots faced 14.22
7.11 Corners 4.78
4.56 Corners against 5.56
12.11 Fouls 11.56
2.22 Yellow cards 2.00
0.44 1st-half goals scored 0.44
0.67 1st-half goals conceded 0.56

How often Full Time

22% Wins 56%
22% Draws 11%
56% Losses 33%
89% Over 0.5 goals 100%
67% Over 1.5 goals 89%
56% Over 2.5 goals 78%
33% Over 3.5 goals 22%
11% Over 4.5 goals 22%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
56% Both teams scored 67%
22% Clean sheets 11%
33% Failed to score 22%

How often Half Time

33% Wins 22%
22% Draws 44%
44% Losses 33%
78% Over 0.5 goals 67%
22% Over 1.5 goals 22%
11% Over 2.5 goals 11%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Luton all matches
Watford all matches
Luton before this match, at home
1.00points / match
1.50scored / match
2.25conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 4 played · 6:9
Watford before this match, away
0.75points / match
1.00scored / match
2.50conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 4 played · 4:10
Luton at home away Watford

Per match

1.50 Goals scored 1.00
2.25 Goals conceded 2.50
3.75 Total goals 3.50
12.00 Shots 9.50
3.75 Shots on target 3.75
13.25 Shots faced 17.00
5.50 Corners 5.00
5.00 Corners against 5.75
11.50 Fouls 11.75
2.25 Yellow cards 1.75
0.75 1st-half goals scored 0.50
0.75 1st-half goals conceded 0.75

How often Full Time

25% Wins 25%
25% Draws 0%
50% Losses 75%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
100% Over 1.5 goals 75%
100% Over 2.5 goals 75%
50% Over 3.5 goals 50%
25% Over 4.5 goals 50%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
100% Both teams scored 50%
0% Clean sheets 0%
0% Failed to score 50%

How often Half Time

50% Wins 25%
25% Draws 25%
25% Losses 50%
75% Over 0.5 goals 75%
50% Over 1.5 goals 25%
25% Over 2.5 goals 25%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Luton at home
Watford away

Last 10 matches before this match

Luton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
05.10.24 Sheffield United – Luton 2–0 (1–0) 1.903.703.90 1.90 1.95
01.10.24 Luton – Oxford 2–2 (2–1) 1.673.904.50 1.88 1.98
27.09.24 Plymouth – Luton 3–1 (1–0) 4.003.701.85 1.62 2.30
21.09.24 Luton – Sheffield Weds 2–1 (0–0) 1.903.504.00 1.85 2.00
14.09.24 Millwall – Luton 0–1 (0–1) 2.633.302.63 2.00 1.80
30.08.24 Luton – QPR 1–2 (1–0) 1.913.503.70 1.75 2.05
24.08.24 Preston – Luton 1–0 (1–0) 3.203.402.20 1.98 1.88
17.08.24 Portsmouth – Luton 0–0 (0–0) 3.103.402.25 1.75 2.05
12.08.24 Luton – Burnley 1–4 (0–2) 2.383.402.88 1.88 1.98
19.05.24E0 Luton – Fulham 2–4 (1–2) 2.903.902.20 1.44 2.75

Watford all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
05.10.24 Watford – Middlesbrough 2–1 (0–0) 3.503.801.95 1.67 2.20
02.10.24 Preston – Watford 3–0 (0–0) 2.453.302.75 2.00 1.80
28.09.24 Watford – Sunderland 2–1 (1–0) 2.753.602.35 2.00 1.85
21.09.24 Norwich – Watford 4–1 (2–1) 2.153.503.20 1.93 1.93
14.09.24 Watford – Coventry 1–1 (0–1) 2.603.402.70 1.83 2.03
01.09.24 Sheffield United – Watford 1–0 (1–0) 1.753.754.33 1.83 2.03
24.08.24 Watford – Derby 2–1 (1–1) 1.853.504.10 1.88 1.98
17.08.24 Watford – Stoke 3–0 (0–0) 2.633.252.70 2.05 1.80
10.08.24 Millwall – Watford 2–3 (0–1) 2.303.253.25 2.25 1.62
04.05.24 Middlesbrough – Watford 3–1 (1–0) 1.704.004.75 1.62 2.30

Luton at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.10.24 Luton – Oxford 2–2 (2–1) 1.673.904.50 1.88 1.98
21.09.24 Luton – Sheffield Weds 2–1 (0–0) 1.903.504.00 1.85 2.00
30.08.24 Luton – QPR 1–2 (1–0) 1.913.503.70 1.75 2.05
12.08.24 Luton – Burnley 1–4 (0–2) 2.383.402.88 1.88 1.98
19.05.24E0 Luton – Fulham 2–4 (1–2) 2.903.902.20 1.44 2.75
03.05.24E0 Luton – Everton 1–1 (1–1) 2.603.602.55 1.73 2.10
20.04.24E0 Luton – Brentford 1–5 (0–2) 3.103.752.15 1.57 2.38
06.04.24E0 Luton – Bournemouth 2–1 (0–0) 3.753.801.91 1.50 2.63
16.03.24E0 Luton – Nott'm Forest 1–1 (0–1) 2.803.502.45 1.67 2.15
02.03.24E0 Luton – Aston Villa 2–3 (0–2) 4.334.201.73 1.44 2.70

Watford away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
02.10.24 Preston – Watford 3–0 (0–0) 2.453.302.75 2.00 1.80
21.09.24 Norwich – Watford 4–1 (2–1) 2.153.503.20 1.93 1.93
01.09.24 Sheffield United – Watford 1–0 (1–0) 1.753.754.33 1.83 2.03
10.08.24 Millwall – Watford 2–3 (0–1) 2.303.253.25 2.25 1.62
04.05.24 Middlesbrough – Watford 3–1 (1–0) 1.704.004.75 1.62 2.30
13.04.24 Southampton – Watford 3–2 (2–1) 1.445.006.50 1.53 2.50
10.04.24 Ipswich – Watford 0–0 (0–0) 1.504.336.50 1.62 2.30
01.04.24 West Brom – Watford 2–2 (0–0) 1.853.504.33 2.08 1.73
16.03.24 Birmingham – Watford 0–1 (0–1) 2.453.253.00 1.93 1.93
02.03.24 Millwall – Watford 1–0 (1–0) 2.383.303.00 2.10 1.70

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Luton winsDrawsWatford wins
2matches
3.00goals / match
50%over 2.5
0%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.04.23E1 Luton – Watford 2–0 (1–0) 2.153.253.60 2.38 1.57
23.10.22E1 Watford – Luton 4–0 (2–0) 2.203.303.40 2.10 1.72

England Championship table 2024/2025, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sheffield United 10 6 3 1 12 5 +7 21
2 Sunderland 9 6 1 2 18 8 +10 19
3 Leeds 10 5 4 1 17 7 +10 19
4 Burnley 9 5 3 1 14 4 +10 18
5 West Brom 9 5 2 2 12 6 +6 17
6 Watford 9 5 1 3 14 14 0 16
7 Norwich 9 4 3 2 16 10 +6 15
8 Blackburn 9 4 3 2 15 11 +4 15
9 Middlesbrough 9 4 2 3 10 7 +3 14
10 Oxford 9 3 3 3 13 11 +2 12
11 Swansea 9 3 3 3 8 6 +2 12
12 Derby 9 4 0 5 12 12 0 12
13 Hull 9 3 3 3 12 13 -1 12
14 Plymouth 9 3 2 4 10 13 -3 11
15 Sheffield Weds 9 3 2 4 11 15 -4 11
16 Bristol City 9 2 5 2 10 14 -4 11
17 Stoke 9 3 1 5 10 12 -2 10
18 Millwall 9 2 3 4 12 11 +1 9
19 Preston 9 2 3 4 7 12 -5 9
20 Coventry 9 2 2 5 10 13 -3 8
21 Luton 9 2 2 5 8 15 -7 8
22 QPR 9 1 4 4 9 16 -7 7
23 Portsmouth 9 0 5 4 9 20 -11 5
24 Cardiff 9 1 2 6 4 18 -14 5
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sunderland 5 4 1 0 10 2 +8 13
2 Watford 5 4 1 0 10 4 +6 13
3 Sheffield United 5 4 1 0 7 2 +5 13
4 Blackburn 4 4 0 0 11 3 +8 12
5 Derby 5 4 0 1 9 3 +6 12
6 Burnley 5 3 2 0 9 2 +7 11
7 Leeds 5 3 1 1 10 4 +6 10
8 Oxford 4 3 1 0 6 1 +5 10
9 Plymouth 5 3 1 1 9 6 +3 10
10 Norwich 5 2 3 0 12 5 +7 9
11 Swansea 5 2 3 0 6 2 +4 9
12 Bristol City 5 2 3 0 8 6 +2 9
13 Middlesbrough 4 2 2 0 6 3 +3 8
14 West Brom 5 2 2 1 2 1 +1 8
15 Sheffield Weds 4 2 1 1 8 5 +3 7
16 Preston 4 2 1 1 4 2 +2 7
17 Stoke 4 2 0 2 9 6 +3 6
18 Millwall 4 2 0 2 8 5 +3 6
19 Coventry 5 2 0 3 8 7 +1 6
20 Hull 4 1 2 1 5 4 +1 5
21 Luton 4 1 1 2 6 9 -3 4
22 Portsmouth 5 0 3 2 2 7 -5 3
23 Cardiff 4 1 0 3 1 6 -5 3
24 QPR 4 0 2 2 4 8 -4 2
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 West Brom 4 3 0 1 10 5 +5 9
2 Leeds 5 2 3 0 7 3 +4 9
3 Sheffield United 5 2 2 1 5 3 +2 8
4 Burnley 4 2 1 1 5 2 +3 7
5 Hull 5 2 1 2 7 9 -2 7
6 Sunderland 4 2 0 2 8 6 +2 6
7 Middlesbrough 5 2 0 3 4 4 0 6
8 Norwich 4 2 0 2 4 5 -1 6
9 QPR 5 1 2 2 5 8 -3 5
10 Luton 5 1 1 3 2 6 -4 4
11 Stoke 5 1 1 3 1 6 -5 4
12 Sheffield Weds 5 1 1 3 3 10 -7 4
13 Millwall 5 0 3 2 4 6 -2 3
14 Swansea 4 1 0 3 2 4 -2 3
15 Blackburn 5 0 3 2 4 8 -4 3
16 Watford 4 1 0 3 4 10 -6 3
17 Oxford 5 0 2 3 7 10 -3 2
18 Coventry 4 0 2 2 2 6 -4 2
19 Portsmouth 4 0 2 2 7 13 -6 2
20 Bristol City 4 0 2 2 2 8 -6 2
21 Preston 5 0 2 3 3 10 -7 2
22 Cardiff 5 0 2 3 3 12 -9 2
23 Plymouth 4 0 1 3 1 7 -6 1
24 Derby 4 0 0 4 3 9 -6 0

Luton   Watford

Under / Over goals 2024/2025, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 6 Watford 9 2 7 1.6 1.6 5 1 3 14 14 16
2 8 Blackburn 9 3 6 1.7 1.2 4 3 2 15 11 15
3 15 Sheffield Weds 9 3 6 1.2 1.7 3 2 4 11 15 11
4 23 Portsmouth 9 3 6 1.0 2.2 0 5 4 9 20 5
5 2 Sunderland 9 4 5 2.0 0.9 6 1 2 18 8 19
6 10 Oxford 9 4 5 1.4 1.2 3 3 3 13 11 12
7 20 Coventry 9 4 5 1.1 1.4 2 2 5 10 13 8
8 21 Luton 9 4 5 0.9 1.7 2 2 5 8 15 8
9 5 West Brom 9 5 4 1.3 0.7 5 2 2 12 6 17
10 7 Norwich 9 5 4 1.8 1.1 4 3 2 16 10 15
11 12 Derby 9 5 4 1.3 1.3 4 0 5 12 12 12
12 13 Hull 9 5 4 1.3 1.4 3 3 3 12 13 12
13 14 Plymouth 9 5 4 1.1 1.4 3 2 4 10 13 11
14 16 Bristol City 9 5 4 1.1 1.6 2 5 2 10 14 11
15 17 Stoke 9 5 4 1.1 1.3 3 1 5 10 12 10
16 18 Millwall 9 5 4 1.3 1.2 2 3 4 12 11 9
17 19 Preston 9 5 4 0.8 1.3 2 3 4 7 12 9
18 22 QPR 9 5 4 1.0 1.8 1 4 4 9 16 7
19 3 Leeds 10 7 3 1.7 0.7 5 4 1 17 7 19
20 4 Burnley 9 6 3 1.6 0.4 5 3 1 14 4 18
21 9 Middlesbrough 9 7 2 1.1 0.8 4 2 3 10 7 14
22 11 Swansea 9 7 2 0.9 0.7 3 3 3 8 6 12
23 24 Cardiff 9 7 2 0.4 2.0 1 2 6 4 18 5
24 1 Sheffield United 10 9 1 1.2 0.5 6 3 1 12 5 21
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 6 Watford 5 1 4 2.0 0.8 4 1 0 10 4 13
2 20 Coventry 5 1 4 1.6 1.4 2 0 3 8 7 6
3 21 Luton 4 0 4 1.5 2.2 1 1 2 6 9 4
4 7 Norwich 5 2 3 2.4 1.0 2 3 0 12 5 9
5 8 Blackburn 4 1 3 2.8 0.8 4 0 0 11 3 12
6 14 Plymouth 5 2 3 1.8 1.2 3 1 1 9 6 10
7 17 Stoke 4 1 3 2.2 1.5 2 0 2 9 6 6
8 18 Millwall 4 1 3 2.0 1.2 2 0 2 8 5 6
9 2 Sunderland 5 3 2 2.0 0.4 4 1 0 10 2 13
10 3 Leeds 5 3 2 2.0 0.8 3 1 1 10 4 10
11 4 Burnley 5 3 2 1.8 0.4 3 2 0 9 2 11
12 12 Derby 5 3 2 1.8 0.6 4 0 1 9 3 12
13 15 Sheffield Weds 4 2 2 2.0 1.2 2 1 1 8 5 7
14 16 Bristol City 5 3 2 1.6 1.2 2 3 0 8 6 9
15 22 QPR 4 2 2 1.0 2.0 0 2 2 4 8 2
16 23 Portsmouth 5 3 2 0.4 1.4 0 3 2 2 7 3
17 1 Sheffield United 5 4 1 1.4 0.4 4 1 0 7 2 13
18 9 Middlesbrough 4 3 1 1.5 0.8 2 2 0 6 3 8
19 10 Oxford 4 3 1 1.5 0.2 3 1 0 6 1 10
20 11 Swansea 5 4 1 1.2 0.4 2 3 0 6 2 9
21 13 Hull 4 3 1 1.2 1.0 1 2 1 5 4 5
22 19 Preston 4 3 1 1.0 0.5 2 1 1 4 2 7
23 5 West Brom 5 5 0 0.4 0.2 2 2 1 2 1 8
24 24 Cardiff 4 4 0 0.2 1.5 1 0 3 1 6 3
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 West Brom 4 0 4 2.5 1.2 3 0 1 10 5 9
2 10 Oxford 5 1 4 1.4 2.0 0 2 3 7 10 2
3 15 Sheffield Weds 5 1 4 0.6 2.0 1 1 3 3 10 4
4 23 Portsmouth 4 0 4 1.8 3.2 0 2 2 7 13 2
5 2 Sunderland 4 1 3 2.0 1.5 2 0 2 8 6 6
6 6 Watford 4 1 3 1.0 2.5 1 0 3 4 10 3
7 8 Blackburn 5 2 3 0.8 1.6 0 3 2 4 8 3
8 13 Hull 5 2 3 1.4 1.8 2 1 2 7 9 7
9 19 Preston 5 2 3 0.6 2.0 0 2 3 3 10 2
10 12 Derby 4 2 2 0.8 2.2 0 0 4 3 9 0
11 16 Bristol City 4 2 2 0.5 2.0 0 2 2 2 8 2
12 22 QPR 5 3 2 1.0 1.6 1 2 2 5 8 5
13 24 Cardiff 5 3 2 0.6 2.4 0 2 3 3 12 2
14 3 Leeds 5 4 1 1.4 0.6 2 3 0 7 3 9
15 4 Burnley 4 3 1 1.2 0.5 2 1 1 5 2 7
16 7 Norwich 4 3 1 1.0 1.2 2 0 2 4 5 6
17 9 Middlesbrough 5 4 1 0.8 0.8 2 0 3 4 4 6
18 11 Swansea 4 3 1 0.5 1.0 1 0 3 2 4 3
19 14 Plymouth 4 3 1 0.2 1.8 0 1 3 1 7 1
20 17 Stoke 5 4 1 0.2 1.2 1 1 3 1 6 4
21 18 Millwall 5 4 1 0.8 1.2 0 3 2 4 6 3
22 20 Coventry 4 3 1 0.5 1.5 0 2 2 2 6 2
23 21 Luton 5 4 1 0.4 1.2 1 1 3 2 6 4
24 1 Sheffield United 5 5 0 1.0 0.6 2 2 1 5 3 8

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51