Stoke 3–1 Derby
Full time · half time 0–0 · season 2025/2026
Home ✓
2.30
fair 2.11
Draw
3.20
fair 3.80
Away
3.20
fair 3.78
Under 2.5
1.53
fair 1.83
Over 2.5 ✓
2.50
fair 2.21
Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.
Match facts
Stoke
Derby
12
Shots
3
7
Shots on target
2
7
Corners
3
12
Fouls
14
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
Our pre-match prediction
✓ Result correct
✗ Goals missed
✗ BTTS missed
Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (4 league matches this season so far).
Result
Stoke to win
Goals
Under 2.5
Both teams score
No
fair 1.97
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.02
Home / Draw / Away
47%
26%
26%
StokeDrawDerby
Under / Over 2.5 goals
55%
45%
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
51%
49%
NoYes
Total goals in the match
8%
0
21%
1
26%
2
21%
3
13%
4
11%
5+
Most likely scores
1–1 12.5%
1–0 12.2%
2–1 9.1%
Statistics 2025/2026, before this match
Stoke
before this match, all matches
No matches yet this season.
Derby
before this match, all matches
No matches yet this season.
Stoke all matches
all matches Derby
Per match
How often Full Time
How often Half Time
Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)
Stoke all matches
1
W
1
L
3
1
W
1
1
D
1
1
D
1
W
2
W
6
L
2
L
D
Derby all matches
2
W
3
2
W
2
W
1
L
D
2
2
D
1
L
3
1
W
1
W
D
Stoke
before this match, at home
No matches yet this season.
Derby
before this match, away
No matches yet this season.
Stoke at home
away Derby
Per match
How often Full Time
How often Half Time
Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)
Stoke at home
D
D
3
1
W
1
3
L
D
1
W
3
1
W
1
1
D
2
W
2
L
Derby away
1
L
1
2
L
1
1
D
4
L
1
L
3
2
W
1
L
2
2
D
3
1
W
1
W
Last 10 matches before this match
Stoke all matches
| Date | Match | Score | 1 | X | 2 | O | U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.05.25 | Derby – Stoke | 0–0 (0–0) | 2.05 | 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.50 | 1.53 |
| 25.04.25 | Stoke – Sheffield United | 0–2 (0–1) | 2.35 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.10 | 1.73 |
| 21.04.25 | Leeds – Stoke | 6–0 (5–0) | 1.27 | 5.75 | 11.00 | 1.67 | 2.20 |
| 18.04.25 | Stoke – Sheffield Weds | 2–0 (1–0) | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.10 | 1.73 |
| 12.04.25 | Cardiff – Stoke | 0–1 (0–0) | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.20 | 1.67 |
| 08.04.25 | Stoke – Luton | 1–1 (0–0) | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.90 | 2.38 | 1.57 |
| 05.04.25 | Preston – Stoke | 1–1 (1–0) | 2.35 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 1.62 |
| 29.03.25 | Stoke – QPR | 3–1 (2–0) | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.67 |
| 15.03.25 | Millwall – Stoke | 1–0 (0–0) | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.63 | 1.50 |
| 12.03.25 | Stoke – Blackburn | 1–0 (1–0) | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.70 | 2.05 | 1.68 |
Derby all matches
| Date | Match | Score | 1 | X | 2 | O | U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.05.25 | Derby – Stoke | 0–0 (0–0) | 2.05 | 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.50 | 1.53 |
| 26.04.25 | Hull – Derby | 0–1 (0–0) | 2.40 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.63 | 1.50 |
| 21.04.25 | West Brom – Derby | 1–3 (0–2) | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 2.38 | 1.57 |
| 18.04.25 | Derby – Luton | 0–1 (0–1) | 2.60 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 1.44 |
| 12.04.25 | Portsmouth – Derby | 2–2 (0–0) | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.63 | 1.50 |
| 08.04.25 | Derby – Burnley | 0–0 (0–0) | 4.20 | 3.30 | 1.82 | 2.75 | 1.44 |
| 05.04.25 | Swansea – Derby | 1–0 (0–0) | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.38 | 1.57 |
| 02.04.25 | Derby – Preston | 2–0 (0–0) | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.75 | 1.44 |
| 15.03.25 | Plymouth – Derby | 2–3 (1–2) | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.55 | 2.50 | 1.53 |
| 11.03.25 | Derby – Coventry | 2–0 (1–0) | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.20 | 2.32 | 1.53 |
Stoke at home
| Date | Match | Score | 1 | X | 2 | O | U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.04.25 | Stoke – Sheffield United | 0–2 (0–1) | 2.35 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.10 | 1.73 |
| 18.04.25 | Stoke – Sheffield Weds | 2–0 (1–0) | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.10 | 1.73 |
| 08.04.25 | Stoke – Luton | 1–1 (0–0) | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.90 | 2.38 | 1.57 |
| 29.03.25 | Stoke – QPR | 3–1 (2–0) | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.67 |
| 12.03.25 | Stoke – Blackburn | 1–0 (1–0) | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.70 | 2.05 | 1.68 |
| 01.03.25 | Stoke – Watford | 0–0 (0–0) | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.88 | 1.95 | 1.90 |
| 25.02.25 | Stoke – Middlesbrough | 1–3 (1–1) | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.35 | 1.93 | 1.93 |
| 15.02.25 | Stoke – Swansea | 3–1 (0–0) | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.88 | 2.10 | 1.73 |
| 25.01.25 | Stoke – Oxford | 0–0 (0–0) | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.73 |
| 04.01.25 | Stoke – Plymouth | 0–0 (0–0) | 1.65 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 1.67 | 2.20 |
Derby away
| Date | Match | Score | 1 | X | 2 | O | U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.04.25 | Hull – Derby | 0–1 (0–0) | 2.40 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.63 | 1.50 |
| 21.04.25 | West Brom – Derby | 1–3 (0–2) | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 2.38 | 1.57 |
| 12.04.25 | Portsmouth – Derby | 2–2 (0–0) | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.63 | 1.50 |
| 05.04.25 | Swansea – Derby | 1–0 (0–0) | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.38 | 1.57 |
| 15.03.25 | Plymouth – Derby | 2–3 (1–2) | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.55 | 2.50 | 1.53 |
| 01.03.25 | Middlesbrough – Derby | 1–0 (0–0) | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.50 | 1.90 | 1.95 |
| 14.02.25 | QPR – Derby | 4–0 (2–0) | 2.05 | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.63 | 1.50 |
| 08.02.25 | Norwich – Derby | 1–1 (0–0) | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.75 | 1.98 | 1.88 |
| 25.01.25 | Cardiff – Derby | 2–1 (0–0) | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.50 | 1.53 |
| 04.01.25 | Bristol City – Derby | 1–0 (1–0) | 1.90 | 3.30 | 4.20 | 2.30 | 1.62 |
Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.
Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match
1 1 2
Stoke winsDrawsDerby wins
4matches
2.25goals / match
75%over 2.5
75%both scored
| Date | Match | Score | 1 | X | 2 | O | U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.05.25E1 | Derby – Stoke | 0–0 (0–0) | 2.05 | 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.50 | 1.53 |
| 02.11.24E1 | Stoke – Derby | 2–1 (1–0) | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.03 | 1.83 |
| 30.12.21E1 | Stoke – Derby | 1–2 (0–1) | 1.66 | 3.75 | 5.50 | 2.20 | 1.66 |
| 18.09.21E1 | Derby – Stoke | 2–1 (2–0) | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.45 | 2.37 | 1.57 |
England Championship table 2025/2026, before this match
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 2 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Coventry | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Hull | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | Watford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 2 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Coventry | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Hull | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Ipswich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipswich | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | Hull | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Charlton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Coventry | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | Watford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Stoke Derby
Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match
| # | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Southampton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | 7 | Wrexham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | Birmingham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | Coventry | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | 6 | Hull | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | 8 | Watford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Southampton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | Birmingham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ipswich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 5 | Coventry | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hull | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 7 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 8 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Wrexham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 | 1 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | Charlton | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 3 | Birmingham | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 4 | Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | Coventry | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 6 | Hull | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | 8 | Watford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.
Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51
