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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: T Kirk

Derby 1–1 Millwall

Full time · half time 0–0 · season 2025/2026

Home 2.50 fair 2.45
Draw ✓ 2.95 fair 3.97
Away 2.95 fair 2.95
Under 2.5 ✓ 1.53 fair 2.14
Over 2.5 2.50 fair 1.88

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Derby Millwall
13 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 2
11 Corners 7
9 Fouls 13
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✗ Goals missed ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (234 league matches this season so far).
Result Derby to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.76
Expected goals 1.48 – 1.33
Home / Draw / Away
DerbyDrawMillwall
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.9% 1–0 8.9% 2–1 8.8%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Derby before this match, all matches
1.37points / match
1.37scored / match
1.47conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 19 played · 26:28
Millwall before this match, all matches
1.79points / match
1.21scored / match
1.32conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 19 played · 23:25
Derby all matches all matches Millwall

Per match

1.37 Goals scored 1.21
1.47 Goals conceded 1.32
2.84 Total goals 2.53
9.11 Shots 12.89
2.95 Shots on target 4.00
12.89 Shots faced 12.32
4.74 Corners 5.26
6.00 Corners against 5.32
12.63 Fouls 13.42
2.53 Yellow cards 1.79
0.58 1st-half goals scored 0.58
0.58 1st-half goals conceded 0.42

How often Full Time

37% Wins 53%
26% Draws 21%
37% Losses 26%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
74% Over 1.5 goals 74%
53% Over 2.5 goals 47%
32% Over 3.5 goals 26%
11% Over 4.5 goals 5%
5% Over 5.5 goals 0%
74% Both teams scored 42%
16% Clean sheets 37%
11% Failed to score 21%

How often Half Time

37% Wins 32%
32% Draws 47%
32% Losses 21%
79% Over 0.5 goals 68%
21% Over 1.5 goals 32%
11% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby all matches
Millwall all matches
Derby before this match, at home
1.20points / match
1.30scored / match
1.60conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 10 played · 13:16
Millwall before this match, away
1.67points / match
1.22scored / match
1.44conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 9 played · 11:13
Derby at home away Millwall

Per match

1.30 Goals scored 1.22
1.60 Goals conceded 1.44
2.90 Total goals 2.67
10.80 Shots 10.78
3.30 Shots on target 3.78
11.50 Shots faced 14.44
5.20 Corners 4.33
4.70 Corners against 5.44
11.90 Fouls 15.33
2.30 Yellow cards 2.11
0.60 1st-half goals scored 0.56
0.90 1st-half goals conceded 0.67

How often Full Time

30% Wins 44%
30% Draws 33%
40% Losses 22%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
70% Over 1.5 goals 78%
40% Over 2.5 goals 56%
30% Over 3.5 goals 33%
20% Over 4.5 goals 0%
10% Over 5.5 goals 0%
70% Both teams scored 67%
20% Clean sheets 22%
10% Failed to score 11%

How often Half Time

30% Wins 22%
30% Draws 44%
40% Losses 33%
90% Over 0.5 goals 78%
30% Over 1.5 goals 44%
20% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby at home
Millwall away

Last 10 matches before this match

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
06.12.25 Derby – Leicester 1–3 (0–3) 2.703.202.57 2.30 1.62
29.11.25 Middlesbrough – Derby 2–1 (0–1) 1.713.605.00 2.20 1.67
25.11.25 Swansea – Derby 1–2 (0–1) 2.103.053.60 2.50 1.53
22.11.25 Derby – Watford 2–3 (1–0) 2.453.202.82 2.30 1.62
08.11.25 Blackburn – Derby 1–2 (0–2) 1.913.303.90 2.38 1.57
04.11.25 Derby – Hull 2–1 (1–0) 2.153.253.30 2.10 1.73
01.11.25 Sheffield United – Derby 1–3 (0–1) 1.763.504.33 2.20 1.67
25.10.25 Derby – QPR 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.252.65 2.10 1.73
21.10.25 Derby – Norwich 1–0 (0–0) 2.503.052.82 2.20 1.67
18.10.25 Oxford – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 2.403.052.95 2.50 1.53

Millwall all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
06.12.25 Bristol City – Millwall 0–1 (0–0) 2.103.403.30 2.10 1.73
29.11.25 Millwall – Southampton 3–2 (0–0) 3.053.602.20 1.98 1.88
26.11.25 Millwall – Sheffield Weds 1–0 (0–0) 1.623.705.25 2.05 1.80
22.11.25 Portsmouth – Millwall 3–1 (1–0) 2.573.052.70 2.30 1.62
08.11.25 Millwall – Preston 1–1 (1–1) 2.153.253.25 2.30 1.62
04.11.25 Birmingham – Millwall 4–0 (2–0) 1.813.404.20 2.20 1.67
01.11.25 Oxford – Millwall 2–2 (1–1) 2.703.302.45 2.20 1.67
25.10.25 Millwall – Leicester 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.202.65 2.10 1.73
21.10.25 Millwall – Stoke 2–0 (2–0) 2.303.202.95 2.30 1.62
18.10.25 QPR – Millwall 1–2 (0–2) 2.572.952.82 2.38 1.57

Derby at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
06.12.25 Derby – Leicester 1–3 (0–3) 2.703.202.57 2.30 1.62
22.11.25 Derby – Watford 2–3 (1–0) 2.453.202.82 2.30 1.62
04.11.25 Derby – Hull 2–1 (1–0) 2.153.253.30 2.10 1.73
25.10.25 Derby – QPR 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.252.65 2.10 1.73
21.10.25 Derby – Norwich 1–0 (0–0) 2.503.052.82 2.20 1.67
04.10.25 Derby – Southampton 1–1 (1–1) 3.503.302.05 2.20 1.67
30.09.25 Derby – Charlton 1–1 (0–1) 2.553.252.65 2.63 1.50
20.09.25 Derby – Preston 0–1 (0–1) 2.303.103.10 2.75 1.44
22.08.25 Derby – Bristol City 1–1 (0–1) 3.003.202.38 2.38 1.57
16.08.25 Derby – Coventry 3–5 (2–2) 3.103.202.38 2.30 1.62

Millwall away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
06.12.25 Bristol City – Millwall 0–1 (0–0) 2.103.403.30 2.10 1.73
22.11.25 Portsmouth – Millwall 3–1 (1–0) 2.573.052.70 2.30 1.62
04.11.25 Birmingham – Millwall 4–0 (2–0) 1.813.404.20 2.20 1.67
01.11.25 Oxford – Millwall 2–2 (1–1) 2.703.302.45 2.20 1.67
18.10.25 QPR – Millwall 1–2 (0–2) 2.572.952.82 2.38 1.57
27.09.25 Swansea – Millwall 1–1 (1–1) 2.153.103.50 2.38 1.57
13.09.25 Charlton – Millwall 1–1 (1–0) 2.403.103.10 2.50 1.53
23.08.25 Sheffield United – Millwall 0–1 (0–1) 2.003.403.70 2.20 1.67
09.08.25 Norwich – Millwall 1–2 (0–0) 2.003.303.80 2.10 1.73
03.05.25 Burnley – Millwall 3–1 (1–1) 1.623.705.75 2.00 1.80

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Derby winsDrawsMillwall wins
4matches
2.00goals / match
25%over 2.5
75%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
22.02.25E1 Derby – Millwall 0–1 (0–0) 2.502.903.25 3.00 1.40
19.10.24E1 Millwall – Derby 1–1 (0–0) 1.953.204.10 2.30 1.62
23.02.22E1 Derby – Millwall 1–2 (0–2) 2.623.102.87 2.62 1.50
06.11.21E1 Millwall – Derby 1–1 (1–1) 1.833.404.75 2.37 1.57

England Championship table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 20 13 5 2 51 22 +29 44
2 Middlesbrough 20 11 6 3 30 21 +9 39
3 Millwall 19 10 4 5 23 25 -2 34
4 Preston 20 8 8 4 27 21 +6 32
5 Ipswich 19 8 7 4 33 19 +14 31
6 QPR 20 9 4 7 27 30 -3 31
7 Stoke 19 9 3 7 26 18 +8 30
8 Southampton 20 8 6 6 34 28 +6 30
9 Bristol City 19 8 5 6 26 21 +5 29
10 Birmingham 20 8 4 8 29 25 +4 28
11 Watford 20 7 7 6 28 26 +2 28
12 Hull 19 8 4 7 31 34 -3 28
13 Wrexham 19 6 9 4 24 21 +3 27
14 Leicester 19 7 6 6 25 24 +1 27
15 Derby 19 7 5 7 26 28 -2 26
16 West Brom 20 7 4 9 23 28 -5 25
17 Sheffield United 20 7 2 11 25 29 -4 23
18 Swansea 20 6 5 9 21 27 -6 23
19 Charlton 19 6 5 8 19 25 -6 23
20 Blackburn 19 6 4 9 19 24 -5 22
21 Oxford 20 4 7 9 21 28 -7 19
22 Portsmouth 19 4 5 10 15 26 -11 17
23 Norwich 20 3 5 12 22 33 -11 14
24 Sheffield Weds 19 1 6 12 15 37 -22 9
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 9 7 2 0 25 7 +18 23
2 Watford 11 6 4 1 19 12 +7 22
3 Birmingham 9 6 2 1 21 8 +13 20
4 Middlesbrough 9 6 2 1 13 9 +4 20
5 Ipswich 10 5 4 1 18 9 +9 19
6 Preston 11 5 4 2 15 11 +4 19
7 Millwall 10 6 1 3 12 12 0 19
8 Southampton 10 5 3 2 16 10 +6 18
9 QPR 10 5 2 3 16 14 +2 17
10 Hull 10 5 2 3 16 18 -2 17
11 Stoke 9 5 1 3 15 7 +8 16
12 West Brom 9 4 4 1 11 8 +3 16
13 Wrexham 10 4 4 2 15 13 +2 16
14 Swansea 11 4 3 4 13 15 -2 15
15 Bristol City 10 4 2 4 14 11 +3 14
16 Charlton 9 4 2 3 11 11 0 14
17 Leicester 9 3 4 2 11 10 +1 13
18 Derby 10 3 3 4 13 16 -3 12
19 Sheffield United 10 3 2 5 12 12 0 11
20 Portsmouth 10 3 2 5 9 11 -2 11
21 Oxford 9 2 4 3 10 13 -3 10
22 Blackburn 10 1 3 6 9 16 -7 6
23 Norwich 9 1 1 7 9 15 -6 4
24 Sheffield Weds 10 0 2 8 5 24 -19 2
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 11 6 3 2 26 15 +11 21
2 Middlesbrough 11 5 4 2 17 12 +5 19
3 Blackburn 9 5 1 3 10 8 +2 16
4 Bristol City 9 4 3 2 12 10 +2 15
5 Millwall 9 4 3 2 11 13 -2 15
6 Derby 9 4 2 3 13 12 +1 14
7 Leicester 10 4 2 4 14 14 0 14
8 Stoke 10 4 2 4 11 11 0 14
9 QPR 10 4 2 4 11 16 -5 14
10 Preston 9 3 4 2 12 10 +2 13
11 Ipswich 9 3 3 3 15 10 +5 12
12 Southampton 10 3 3 4 18 18 0 12
13 Sheffield United 10 4 0 6 13 17 -4 12
14 Wrexham 9 2 5 2 9 8 +1 11
15 Hull 9 3 2 4 15 16 -1 11
16 Norwich 11 2 4 5 13 18 -5 10
17 Oxford 11 2 3 6 11 15 -4 9
18 Charlton 10 2 3 5 8 14 -6 9
19 West Brom 11 3 0 8 12 20 -8 9
20 Swansea 9 2 2 5 8 12 -4 8
21 Birmingham 11 2 2 7 8 17 -9 8
22 Sheffield Weds 9 1 4 4 10 13 -3 7
23 Watford 9 1 3 5 9 14 -5 6
24 Portsmouth 9 1 3 5 6 15 -9 6

Derby   Millwall

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 Coventry 20 6 14 2.5 1.1 13 5 2 51 22 44
2 8 Southampton 20 6 14 1.7 1.4 8 6 6 34 28 30
3 12 Hull 19 5 14 1.6 1.8 8 4 7 31 34 28
4 6 QPR 20 8 12 1.4 1.5 9 4 7 27 30 31
5 2 Middlesbrough 20 9 11 1.5 1.1 11 6 3 30 21 39
6 10 Birmingham 20 9 11 1.4 1.2 8 4 8 29 25 28
7 11 Watford 20 9 11 1.4 1.3 7 7 6 28 26 28
8 17 Sheffield United 20 9 11 1.2 1.4 7 2 11 25 29 23
9 24 Sheffield Weds 19 8 11 0.8 1.9 1 6 12 15 37 9
10 5 Ipswich 19 9 10 1.7 1.0 8 7 4 33 19 31
11 14 Leicester 19 9 10 1.3 1.3 7 6 6 25 24 27
12 15 Derby 19 9 10 1.4 1.5 7 5 7 26 28 26
13 16 West Brom 20 10 10 1.1 1.4 7 4 9 23 28 25
14 21 Oxford 20 10 10 1.1 1.4 4 7 9 21 28 19
15 23 Norwich 20 10 10 1.1 1.6 3 5 12 22 33 14
16 3 Millwall 19 10 9 1.2 1.3 10 4 5 23 25 34
17 7 Stoke 19 10 9 1.4 0.9 9 3 7 26 18 30
18 18 Swansea 20 11 9 1.1 1.4 6 5 9 21 27 23
19 4 Preston 20 12 8 1.4 1.1 8 8 4 27 21 32
20 9 Bristol City 19 11 8 1.4 1.1 8 5 6 26 21 29
21 19 Charlton 19 11 8 1.0 1.3 6 5 8 19 25 23
22 20 Blackburn 19 11 8 1.0 1.3 6 4 9 19 24 22
23 22 Portsmouth 19 11 8 0.8 1.4 4 5 10 15 26 17
24 13 Wrexham 19 13 6 1.3 1.1 6 9 4 24 21 27
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 6 QPR 10 3 7 1.6 1.4 5 2 3 16 14 17
2 11 Watford 11 4 7 1.7 1.1 6 4 1 19 12 22
3 12 Hull 10 3 7 1.6 1.8 5 2 3 16 18 17
4 1 Coventry 9 3 6 2.8 0.8 7 2 0 25 7 23
5 5 Ipswich 10 4 6 1.8 0.9 5 4 1 18 9 19
6 8 Southampton 10 4 6 1.6 1.0 5 3 2 16 10 18
7 10 Birmingham 9 3 6 2.3 0.9 6 2 1 21 8 20
8 24 Sheffield Weds 10 4 6 0.5 2.4 0 2 8 5 24 2
9 2 Middlesbrough 9 4 5 1.4 1.0 6 2 1 13 9 20
10 4 Preston 11 6 5 1.4 1.0 5 4 2 15 11 19
11 9 Bristol City 10 5 5 1.4 1.1 4 2 4 14 11 14
12 17 Sheffield United 10 5 5 1.2 1.2 3 2 5 12 12 11
13 18 Swansea 11 6 5 1.2 1.4 4 3 4 13 15 15
14 20 Blackburn 10 5 5 0.9 1.6 1 3 6 9 16 6
15 21 Oxford 9 4 5 1.1 1.4 2 4 3 10 13 10
16 23 Norwich 9 4 5 1.0 1.7 1 1 7 9 15 4
17 3 Millwall 10 6 4 1.2 1.2 6 1 3 12 12 19
18 7 Stoke 9 5 4 1.7 0.8 5 1 3 15 7 16
19 13 Wrexham 10 6 4 1.5 1.3 4 4 2 15 13 16
20 15 Derby 10 6 4 1.3 1.6 3 3 4 13 16 12
21 19 Charlton 9 5 4 1.2 1.2 4 2 3 11 11 14
22 22 Portsmouth 10 6 4 0.9 1.1 3 2 5 9 11 11
23 14 Leicester 9 6 3 1.2 1.1 3 4 2 11 10 13
24 16 West Brom 9 6 3 1.2 0.9 4 4 1 11 8 16
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 Coventry 11 3 8 2.4 1.4 6 3 2 26 15 21
2 8 Southampton 10 2 8 1.8 1.8 3 3 4 18 18 12
3 12 Hull 9 2 7 1.7 1.8 3 2 4 15 16 11
4 14 Leicester 10 3 7 1.4 1.4 4 2 4 14 14 14
5 16 West Brom 11 4 7 1.1 1.8 3 0 8 12 20 9
6 2 Middlesbrough 11 5 6 1.5 1.1 5 4 2 17 12 19
7 15 Derby 9 3 6 1.4 1.3 4 2 3 13 12 14
8 17 Sheffield United 10 4 6 1.3 1.7 4 0 6 13 17 12
9 3 Millwall 9 4 5 1.2 1.4 4 3 2 11 13 15
10 6 QPR 10 5 5 1.1 1.6 4 2 4 11 16 14
11 7 Stoke 10 5 5 1.1 1.1 4 2 4 11 11 14
12 10 Birmingham 11 6 5 0.7 1.5 2 2 7 8 17 8
13 21 Oxford 11 6 5 1.0 1.4 2 3 6 11 15 9
14 23 Norwich 11 6 5 1.2 1.6 2 4 5 13 18 10
15 24 Sheffield Weds 9 4 5 1.1 1.4 1 4 4 10 13 7
16 5 Ipswich 9 5 4 1.7 1.1 3 3 3 15 10 12
17 11 Watford 9 5 4 1.0 1.6 1 3 5 9 14 6
18 18 Swansea 9 5 4 0.9 1.3 2 2 5 8 12 8
19 19 Charlton 10 6 4 0.8 1.4 2 3 5 8 14 9
20 22 Portsmouth 9 5 4 0.7 1.7 1 3 5 6 15 6
21 4 Preston 9 6 3 1.3 1.1 3 4 2 12 10 13
22 9 Bristol City 9 6 3 1.3 1.1 4 3 2 12 10 15
23 20 Blackburn 9 6 3 1.1 0.9 5 1 3 10 8 16
24 13 Wrexham 9 7 2 1.0 0.9 2 5 2 9 8 11

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51