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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: J Bell

Oxford 1–0 Derby

Full time · half time 1–0 · season 2025/2026

Home ✓ 2.40 fair 2.49
Draw 3.05 fair 3.88
Away 2.95 fair 2.93
Under 2.5 ✓ 1.53 fair 2.02
Over 2.5 2.50 fair 1.98

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Oxford Derby
19 Shots 6
7 Shots on target 1
4 Corners 12
9 Fouls 12
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (108 league matches this season so far).
Result Oxford to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.83
Expected goals 1.41 – 1.28
Home / Draw / Away
OxfordDrawDerby
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 12.2% 1–0 9.5% 0–1 8.6%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Oxford before this match, all matches
0.67points / match
1.11scored / match
1.44conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 9 played · 10:13
Derby before this match, all matches
0.89points / match
1.22scored / match
1.67conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 9 played · 11:15
Oxford all matches all matches Derby

Per match

1.11 Goals scored 1.22
1.44 Goals conceded 1.67
2.56 Total goals 2.89
13.78 Shots 8.22
3.33 Shots on target 2.67
13.89 Shots faced 13.67
3.22 Corners 3.33
6.44 Corners against 5.44
11.89 Fouls 12.78
1.22 Yellow cards 3.22
0.89 1st-half goals scored 0.33
1.00 1st-half goals conceded 0.78

How often Full Time

11% Wins 11%
33% Draws 56%
56% Losses 33%
89% Over 0.5 goals 100%
56% Over 1.5 goals 78%
56% Over 2.5 goals 33%
44% Over 3.5 goals 33%
11% Over 4.5 goals 11%
0% Over 5.5 goals 11%
56% Both teams scored 78%
11% Clean sheets 11%
44% Failed to score 11%

How often Half Time

22% Wins 0%
33% Draws 56%
44% Losses 44%
78% Over 0.5 goals 67%
56% Over 1.5 goals 22%
44% Over 2.5 goals 11%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Oxford all matches
Derby all matches
Oxford before this match, at home
0.50points / match
1.00scored / match
1.50conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 4 played · 4:6
Derby before this match, away
1.25points / match
1.25scored / match
1.50conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 4 played · 5:6
Oxford at home away Derby

Per match

1.00 Goals scored 1.25
1.50 Goals conceded 1.50
2.50 Total goals 2.75
16.25 Shots 5.50
3.00 Shots on target 2.00
9.50 Shots faced 14.50
3.75 Corners 2.25
4.50 Corners against 7.00
12.00 Fouls 13.50
1.00 Yellow cards 4.00
0.75 1st-half goals scored 0.00
1.00 1st-half goals conceded 0.25

How often Full Time

0% Wins 25%
50% Draws 50%
50% Losses 25%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
50% Over 1.5 goals 75%
50% Over 2.5 goals 50%
50% Over 3.5 goals 50%
0% Over 4.5 goals 0%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
50% Both teams scored 75%
0% Clean sheets 25%
50% Failed to score 0%

How often Half Time

25% Wins 0%
25% Draws 75%
50% Losses 25%
75% Over 0.5 goals 25%
50% Over 1.5 goals 0%
50% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Oxford at home
Derby away

Last 10 matches before this match

Oxford all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
04.10.25 Watford – Oxford 2–1 (2–1) 1.963.253.90 2.00 1.80
01.10.25 QPR – Oxford 0–0 (0–0) 2.013.403.50 2.00 1.80
27.09.25 Oxford – Sheffield United 0–1 (0–0) 3.203.202.25 2.10 1.73
21.09.25 Bristol City – Oxford 1–3 (0–2) 1.564.205.25 1.93 1.93
13.09.25 Oxford – Leicester 2–2 (2–1) 4.203.501.81 2.10 1.73
30.08.25 Oxford – Coventry 2–2 (1–2) 4.503.601.71 2.00 1.85
23.08.25 Birmingham – Oxford 1–0 (1–0) 1.454.506.50 1.93 1.93
17.08.25 Hull – Oxford 3–2 (2–2) 1.913.404.10 2.30 1.62
09.08.25 Oxford – Portsmouth 0–1 (0–1) 2.553.402.70 2.10 1.73
03.05.25 Swansea – Oxford 3–3 (1–1) 1.624.004.75 1.95 1.90

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
04.10.25 Derby – Southampton 1–1 (1–1) 3.503.302.05 2.20 1.67
30.09.25 Derby – Charlton 1–1 (0–1) 2.553.252.65 2.63 1.50
27.09.25 Wrexham – Derby 1–1 (0–0) 2.053.303.50 2.38 1.57
20.09.25 Derby – Preston 0–1 (0–1) 2.303.103.10 2.75 1.44
13.09.25 West Brom – Derby 0–1 (0–0) 1.713.504.75 2.30 1.62
30.08.25 Ipswich – Derby 2–2 (1–0) 1.493.906.50 2.00 1.80
22.08.25 Derby – Bristol City 1–1 (0–1) 3.003.202.38 2.38 1.57
16.08.25 Derby – Coventry 3–5 (2–2) 3.103.202.38 2.30 1.62
09.08.25 Stoke – Derby 3–1 (0–0) 2.303.203.20 2.50 1.53
03.05.25 Derby – Stoke 0–0 (0–0) 2.053.004.20 2.50 1.53

Oxford at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
27.09.25 Oxford – Sheffield United 0–1 (0–0) 3.203.202.25 2.10 1.73
13.09.25 Oxford – Leicester 2–2 (2–1) 4.203.501.81 2.10 1.73
30.08.25 Oxford – Coventry 2–2 (1–2) 4.503.601.71 2.00 1.85
09.08.25 Oxford – Portsmouth 0–1 (0–1) 2.553.402.70 2.10 1.73
26.04.25 Oxford – Sunderland 2–0 (1–0) 3.103.252.38 2.20 1.67
18.04.25 Oxford – Leeds 0–1 (0–1) 8.005.001.36 1.83 2.03
09.04.25 Oxford – QPR 1–3 (0–2) 2.503.202.80 2.30 1.62
05.04.25 Oxford – Sheffield United 1–0 (1–0) 4.203.501.83 2.10 1.73
15.03.25 Oxford – Watford 1–0 (0–0) 2.753.252.55 2.20 1.67
01.03.25 Oxford – Coventry 2–3 (0–1) 3.503.252.10 2.03 1.83

Derby away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
27.09.25 Wrexham – Derby 1–1 (0–0) 2.053.303.50 2.38 1.57
13.09.25 West Brom – Derby 0–1 (0–0) 1.713.504.75 2.30 1.62
30.08.25 Ipswich – Derby 2–2 (1–0) 1.493.906.50 2.00 1.80
09.08.25 Stoke – Derby 3–1 (0–0) 2.303.203.20 2.50 1.53
26.04.25 Hull – Derby 0–1 (0–0) 2.403.003.25 2.63 1.50
21.04.25 West Brom – Derby 1–3 (0–2) 1.913.503.80 2.38 1.57
12.04.25 Portsmouth – Derby 2–2 (0–0) 2.303.253.20 2.63 1.50
05.04.25 Swansea – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 2.053.303.75 2.38 1.57
15.03.25 Plymouth – Derby 2–3 (1–2) 2.803.202.55 2.50 1.53
01.03.25 Middlesbrough – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 1.653.605.50 1.90 1.95

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Oxford winsDrawsDerby wins
6matches
2.67goals / match
50%over 2.5
67%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
11.02.25E1 Derby – Oxford 0–0 (0–0) 2.203.003.60 2.75 1.44
22.10.24E1 Oxford – Derby 1–1 (1–0) 2.553.252.75 2.10 1.73
29.12.23E2 Oxford – Derby 2–3 (2–1) 3.253.402.20 2.05 1.80
15.08.23E2 Derby – Oxford 1–2 (0–1) 1.913.604.00 2.05 1.75
11.03.23E2 Oxford – Derby 2–3 (1–2) 3.603.502.00 1.98 1.88
30.07.22E2 Derby – Oxford 1–0 (0–0) 2.203.403.30 1.93 1.93

England Championship table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Middlesbrough 10 6 3 1 14 7 +7 21
2 Coventry 9 5 4 0 27 7 +20 19
3 Leicester 9 4 4 1 13 8 +5 16
4 Preston 9 4 4 1 11 7 +4 16
5 Stoke 9 4 3 2 11 6 +5 15
6 QPR 9 4 3 2 13 14 -1 15
7 West Brom 9 4 2 3 9 10 -1 14
8 Millwall 9 4 2 3 9 12 -3 14
9 Ipswich 9 3 4 2 16 10 +6 13
10 Bristol City 9 3 4 2 15 10 +5 13
11 Watford 9 3 3 3 11 11 0 12
12 Swansea 9 3 3 3 10 10 0 12
13 Charlton 9 3 3 3 8 8 0 12
14 Portsmouth 9 3 3 3 8 9 -1 12
15 Hull 9 3 3 3 14 16 -2 12
16 Birmingham 9 3 3 3 8 11 -3 12
17 Southampton 9 2 5 2 11 12 -1 11
18 Wrexham 9 2 4 3 14 15 -1 10
19 Norwich 9 2 2 5 11 14 -3 8
20 Derby 9 1 5 3 11 15 -4 8
21 Blackburn 8 2 1 5 7 11 -4 7
22 Oxford 9 1 3 5 10 13 -3 6
23 Sheffield Weds 9 1 3 5 8 20 -12 6
24 Sheffield United 9 1 0 8 3 16 -13 3
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Middlesbrough 5 4 1 0 6 2 +4 13
2 Ipswich 5 3 2 0 13 5 +8 11
3 Preston 5 3 2 0 7 3 +4 11
4 Watford 5 3 1 1 8 6 +2 10
5 Hull 5 3 1 1 9 8 +1 10
6 Coventry 4 2 2 0 11 2 +9 8
7 Leicester 4 2 2 0 5 2 +3 8
8 QPR 4 2 2 0 5 2 +3 8
9 Birmingham 4 2 2 0 5 3 +2 8
10 Charlton 4 2 1 1 5 2 +3 7
11 Stoke 4 2 1 1 5 3 +2 7
12 Portsmouth 5 2 1 2 5 6 -1 7
13 Swansea 5 1 3 1 6 7 -1 6
14 Millwall 5 2 0 3 4 9 -5 6
15 Southampton 4 1 2 1 4 4 0 5
16 West Brom 4 1 2 1 3 3 0 5
17 Bristol City 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
18 Wrexham 5 0 3 2 7 10 -3 3
19 Derby 5 0 3 2 6 9 -3 3
20 Oxford 4 0 2 2 4 6 -2 2
21 Blackburn 4 0 1 3 3 7 -4 1
22 Sheffield Weds 5 0 1 4 1 14 -13 1
23 Norwich 4 0 0 4 4 8 -4 0
24 Sheffield United 4 0 0 4 2 8 -6 0
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 5 3 2 0 16 5 +11 11
2 West Brom 5 3 0 2 6 7 -1 9
3 Bristol City 4 2 2 0 8 2 +6 8
4 Middlesbrough 5 2 2 1 8 5 +3 8
5 Stoke 5 2 2 1 6 3 +3 8
6 Leicester 5 2 2 1 8 6 +2 8
7 Millwall 4 2 2 0 5 3 +2 8
8 Norwich 5 2 2 1 7 6 +1 8
9 Wrexham 4 2 1 1 7 5 +2 7
10 QPR 5 2 1 2 8 12 -4 7
11 Swansea 4 2 0 2 4 3 +1 6
12 Blackburn 4 2 0 2 4 4 0 6
13 Southampton 5 1 3 1 7 8 -1 6
14 Sheffield Weds 4 1 2 1 7 6 +1 5
15 Preston 4 1 2 1 4 4 0 5
16 Portsmouth 4 1 2 1 3 3 0 5
17 Derby 4 1 2 1 5 6 -1 5
18 Charlton 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5
19 Oxford 5 1 1 3 6 7 -1 4
20 Birmingham 5 1 1 3 3 8 -5 4
21 Sheffield United 5 1 0 4 1 8 -7 3
22 Ipswich 4 0 2 2 3 5 -2 2
23 Watford 4 0 2 2 3 5 -2 2
24 Hull 4 0 2 2 5 8 -3 2

Oxford   Derby

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 15 Hull 9 2 7 1.6 1.8 3 3 3 14 16 12
2 2 Coventry 9 3 6 3.0 0.8 5 4 0 27 7 19
3 23 Sheffield Weds 9 3 6 0.9 2.2 1 3 5 8 20 6
4 1 Middlesbrough 10 5 5 1.4 0.7 6 3 1 14 7 21
5 6 QPR 9 4 5 1.4 1.6 4 3 2 13 14 15
6 9 Ipswich 9 4 5 1.8 1.1 3 4 2 16 10 13
7 10 Bristol City 9 4 5 1.7 1.1 3 4 2 15 10 13
8 11 Watford 9 4 5 1.2 1.2 3 3 3 11 11 12
9 17 Southampton 9 4 5 1.2 1.3 2 5 2 11 12 11
10 18 Wrexham 9 4 5 1.6 1.7 2 4 3 14 15 10
11 19 Norwich 9 4 5 1.2 1.6 2 2 5 11 14 8
12 22 Oxford 9 4 5 1.1 1.4 1 3 5 10 13 6
13 3 Leicester 9 5 4 1.4 0.9 4 4 1 13 8 16
14 8 Millwall 9 5 4 1.0 1.3 4 2 3 9 12 14
15 21 Blackburn 8 4 4 0.9 1.4 2 1 5 7 11 7
16 4 Preston 9 6 3 1.2 0.8 4 4 1 11 7 16
17 5 Stoke 9 6 3 1.2 0.7 4 3 2 11 6 15
18 7 West Brom 9 6 3 1.0 1.1 4 2 3 9 10 14
19 12 Swansea 9 6 3 1.1 1.1 3 3 3 10 10 12
20 14 Portsmouth 9 6 3 0.9 1.0 3 3 3 8 9 12
21 16 Birmingham 9 6 3 0.9 1.2 3 3 3 8 11 12
22 20 Derby 9 6 3 1.2 1.7 1 5 3 11 15 8
23 24 Sheffield United 9 6 3 0.3 1.8 1 0 8 3 16 3
24 13 Charlton 9 7 2 0.9 0.9 3 3 3 8 8 12
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 9 Ipswich 5 1 4 2.6 1.0 3 2 0 13 5 11
2 11 Watford 5 1 4 1.6 1.2 3 1 1 8 6 10
3 15 Hull 5 1 4 1.8 1.6 3 1 1 9 8 10
4 8 Millwall 5 2 3 0.8 1.8 2 0 3 4 9 6
5 10 Bristol City 5 2 3 1.4 1.6 1 2 2 7 8 5
6 18 Wrexham 5 2 3 1.4 2.0 0 3 2 7 10 3
7 19 Norwich 4 1 3 1.0 2.0 0 0 4 4 8 0
8 23 Sheffield Weds 5 2 3 0.2 2.8 0 1 4 1 14 1
9 1 Middlesbrough 5 3 2 1.2 0.4 4 1 0 6 2 13
10 2 Coventry 4 2 2 2.8 0.5 2 2 0 11 2 8
11 4 Preston 5 3 2 1.4 0.6 3 2 0 7 3 11
12 12 Swansea 5 3 2 1.2 1.4 1 3 1 6 7 6
13 14 Portsmouth 5 3 2 1.0 1.2 2 1 2 5 6 7
14 17 Southampton 4 2 2 1.0 1.0 1 2 1 4 4 5
15 21 Blackburn 4 2 2 0.8 1.8 0 1 3 3 7 1
16 22 Oxford 4 2 2 1.0 1.5 0 2 2 4 6 2
17 24 Sheffield United 4 2 2 0.5 2.0 0 0 4 2 8 0
18 3 Leicester 4 3 1 1.2 0.5 2 2 0 5 2 8
19 5 Stoke 4 3 1 1.2 0.8 2 1 1 5 3 7
20 6 QPR 4 3 1 1.2 0.5 2 2 0 5 2 8
21 13 Charlton 4 3 1 1.2 0.5 2 1 1 5 2 7
22 16 Birmingham 4 3 1 1.2 0.8 2 2 0 5 3 8
23 20 Derby 5 4 1 1.2 1.8 0 3 2 6 9 3
24 7 West Brom 4 4 0 0.8 0.8 1 2 1 3 3 5
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 2 Coventry 5 1 4 3.2 1.0 3 2 0 16 5 11
2 6 QPR 5 1 4 1.6 2.4 2 1 2 8 12 7
3 1 Middlesbrough 5 2 3 1.6 1.0 2 2 1 8 5 8
4 3 Leicester 5 2 3 1.6 1.2 2 2 1 8 6 8
5 7 West Brom 5 2 3 1.2 1.4 3 0 2 6 7 9
6 15 Hull 4 1 3 1.2 2.0 0 2 2 5 8 2
7 17 Southampton 5 2 3 1.4 1.6 1 3 1 7 8 6
8 22 Oxford 5 2 3 1.2 1.4 1 1 3 6 7 4
9 23 Sheffield Weds 4 1 3 1.8 1.5 1 2 1 7 6 5
10 5 Stoke 5 3 2 1.2 0.6 2 2 1 6 3 8
11 10 Bristol City 4 2 2 2.0 0.5 2 2 0 8 2 8
12 16 Birmingham 5 3 2 0.6 1.6 1 1 3 3 8 4
13 18 Wrexham 4 2 2 1.8 1.2 2 1 1 7 5 7
14 19 Norwich 5 3 2 1.4 1.2 2 2 1 7 6 8
15 20 Derby 4 2 2 1.2 1.5 1 2 1 5 6 5
16 21 Blackburn 4 2 2 1.0 1.0 2 0 2 4 4 6
17 4 Preston 4 3 1 1.0 1.0 1 2 1 4 4 5
18 8 Millwall 4 3 1 1.2 0.8 2 2 0 5 3 8
19 9 Ipswich 4 3 1 0.8 1.2 0 2 2 3 5 2
20 11 Watford 4 3 1 0.8 1.2 0 2 2 3 5 2
21 12 Swansea 4 3 1 1.0 0.8 2 0 2 4 3 6
22 13 Charlton 5 4 1 0.6 1.2 1 2 2 3 6 5
23 14 Portsmouth 4 3 1 0.8 0.8 1 2 1 3 3 5
24 24 Sheffield United 5 4 1 0.2 1.6 1 0 4 1 8 3

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51