Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough – England Championship, 1 Jan 2026

Match facts

Derby Middlesbrough

7 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 5

4 Corners 9

12 Fouls 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (287 league matches this season so far).

Result Middlesbrough to win

Goals Over 2.5

Both teams score Yes fair 1.82

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.36

Home / Draw / Away

37% 26% 38%

DerbyDrawMiddlesbrough

Under / Over 2.5 goals

49% 51%

Under 2.5Over 2.5

Both teams to score

45% 55%

NoYes

Total goals in the match

7% 0

18% 1

25% 2

22% 3

15% 4

14% 5+

Most likely scores

1–1 12.2% 0–1 9.1% 1–0 9%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Derby before this match, all matches

1.33points / match

1.38scored / match

1.38conceded / match

8 8 8

WonDrawnLost 24 played · 33:33

Middlesbrough before this match, all matches

1.79points / match

1.38scored / match

1.04conceded / match

12 7 5

WonDrawnLost 24 played · 33:25

Derby all matches all matches Middlesbrough

Per match

1.38 Goals scored 1.38

1.38 Goals conceded 1.04

2.75 Total goals 2.42

9.46 Shots 14.08

3.17 Shots on target 4.04

12.38 Shots faced 10.38

4.88 Corners 6.17

5.88 Corners against 4.33

12.04 Fouls 9.58

2.29 Yellow cards 1.63

0.63 1st-half goals scored 0.67

0.58 1st-half goals conceded 0.54

How often Full Time

33% Wins 50%

33% Draws 29%

33% Losses 21%

100% Over 0.5 goals 92%

79% Over 1.5 goals 71%

50% Over 2.5 goals 50%

25% Over 3.5 goals 17%

8% Over 4.5 goals 8%

4% Over 5.5 goals 4%

75% Both teams scored 58%

17% Clean sheets 25%

8% Failed to score 25%

How often Half Time

38% Wins 33%

33% Draws 25%

29% Losses 42%

79% Over 0.5 goals 75%

25% Over 1.5 goals 29%

13% Over 2.5 goals 13%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby all matches

2

1

W

2

3

L

2

1

W

1

2

L

1

3

L

1

D

3

W

1

D

1

D

1

2

L

Middlesbrough all matches

2

1

W

1

D

2

4

L

2

1

W

4

1

W

2

1

W

3

1

W

2

L

D

1

L

Derby before this match, at home

1.17points / match

1.25scored / match

1.50conceded / match

3 5 4

WonDrawnLost 12 played · 15:18

Middlesbrough before this match, away

1.58points / match

1.42scored / match

1.17conceded / match

5 4 3

WonDrawnLost 12 played · 17:14

Derby at home away Middlesbrough

Per match

1.25 Goals scored 1.42

1.50 Goals conceded 1.17

2.75 Total goals 2.58

11.08 Shots 14.67

3.58 Shots on target 3.92

10.92 Shots faced 9.42

5.75 Corners 6.42

4.83 Corners against 3.58

11.25 Fouls 9.50

2.17 Yellow cards 2.25

0.58 1st-half goals scored 0.75

0.83 1st-half goals conceded 0.58

How often Full Time

25% Wins 42%

42% Draws 33%

33% Losses 25%

100% Over 0.5 goals 100%

75% Over 1.5 goals 83%

33% Over 2.5 goals 50%

25% Over 3.5 goals 17%

17% Over 4.5 goals 8%

8% Over 5.5 goals 0%

75% Both teams scored 58%

17% Clean sheets 17%

8% Failed to score 25%

How often Half Time

25% Wins 33%

42% Draws 17%

33% Losses 50%

83% Over 0.5 goals 83%

33% Over 1.5 goals 33%

17% Over 2.5 goals 8%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby at home

1

L

1

D

1

D

1

W

1

W

2

1

W

2

3

L

1

3

L

1

D

1

D

Middlesbrough away

2

D

1

D

1

L

1

W

3

L

1

D

1

D

4

1

W

2

1

W

2

L

Last 10 matches before this match

Derby all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
29.12.25	Leicester – Derby	2–1 (2–1)	2.05	3.25	3.50	2.20	1.67
26.12.25	Birmingham – Derby	1–1 (0–1)	1.86	3.40	4.20	2.10	1.73
20.12.25	Derby – Portsmouth	1–1 (1–1)	1.96	3.20	4.00	2.20	1.67
15.12.25	Sheffield Weds – Derby	0–3 (0–1)	3.20	3.20	2.20	2.10	1.73
10.12.25	Derby – Millwall	1–1 (0–0)	2.50	2.95	2.95	2.50	1.53
06.12.25	Derby – Leicester	1–3 (0–3)	2.70	3.20	2.57	2.30	1.62
29.11.25	Middlesbrough – Derby	2–1 (0–1)	1.71	3.60	5.00	2.20	1.67
25.11.25	Swansea – Derby	1–2 (0–1)	2.10	3.05	3.60	2.50	1.53
22.11.25	Derby – Watford	2–3 (1–0)	2.45	3.20	2.82	2.30	1.62
08.11.25	Blackburn – Derby	1–2 (0–2)	1.91	3.30	3.90	2.38	1.57

Middlesbrough all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
29.12.25	Middlesbrough – Hull	0–1 (0–1)	1.62	3.90	4.50	1.73	2.10
26.12.25	Middlesbrough – Blackburn	0–0 (0–0)	1.76	3.60	4.33	1.93	1.93
20.12.25	Bristol City – Middlesbrough	2–0 (1–0)	2.65	3.40	2.45	1.85	2.00
13.12.25	Middlesbrough – QPR	3–1 (2–0)	1.86	3.70	3.80	1.91	1.91
09.12.25	Charlton – Middlesbrough	1–2 (0–2)	3.30	3.25	2.10	2.10	1.73
05.12.25	Hull – Middlesbrough	1–4 (0–4)	2.95	3.50	2.20	1.73	2.10
29.11.25	Middlesbrough – Derby	2–1 (0–1)	1.71	3.60	5.00	2.20	1.67
25.11.25	Middlesbrough – Coventry	2–4 (1–2)	2.57	3.40	2.55	1.93	1.93
22.11.25	Oxford – Middlesbrough	1–1 (1–0)	3.70	3.30	1.96	2.05	1.80
08.11.25	Middlesbrough – Birmingham	2–1 (2–1)	2.55	3.25	2.65	2.30	1.62

Derby at home

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
20.12.25	Derby – Portsmouth	1–1 (1–1)	1.96	3.20	4.00	2.20	1.67
10.12.25	Derby – Millwall	1–1 (0–0)	2.50	2.95	2.95	2.50	1.53
06.12.25	Derby – Leicester	1–3 (0–3)	2.70	3.20	2.57	2.30	1.62
22.11.25	Derby – Watford	2–3 (1–0)	2.45	3.20	2.82	2.30	1.62
04.11.25	Derby – Hull	2–1 (1–0)	2.15	3.25	3.30	2.10	1.73
25.10.25	Derby – QPR	1–0 (1–0)	2.55	3.25	2.65	2.10	1.73
21.10.25	Derby – Norwich	1–0 (0–0)	2.50	3.05	2.82	2.20	1.67
04.10.25	Derby – Southampton	1–1 (1–1)	3.50	3.30	2.05	2.20	1.67
30.09.25	Derby – Charlton	1–1 (0–1)	2.55	3.25	2.65	2.63	1.50
20.09.25	Derby – Preston	0–1 (0–1)	2.30	3.10	3.10	2.75	1.44

Middlesbrough away

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
20.12.25	Bristol City – Middlesbrough	2–0 (1–0)	2.65	3.40	2.45	1.85	2.00
09.12.25	Charlton – Middlesbrough	1–2 (0–2)	3.30	3.25	2.10	2.10	1.73
05.12.25	Hull – Middlesbrough	1–4 (0–4)	2.95	3.50	2.20	1.73	2.10
22.11.25	Oxford – Middlesbrough	1–1 (1–0)	3.70	3.30	1.96	2.05	1.80
04.11.25	Leicester – Middlesbrough	1–1 (1–0)	2.15	3.40	3.20	1.98	1.88
01.11.25	Watford – Middlesbrough	3–0 (2–0)	2.65	3.40	2.45	2.05	1.80
22.10.25	Sheffield Weds – Middlesbrough	0–1 (0–1)	4.75	3.75	1.66	1.93	1.93
04.10.25	Portsmouth – Middlesbrough	1–0 (1–0)	3.00	3.40	2.25	2.03	1.83
27.09.25	Southampton – Middlesbrough	1–1 (0–0)	2.30	3.40	2.85	1.88	1.98
13.09.25	Preston – Middlesbrough	2–2 (1–0)	3.00	3.30	2.20	2.10	1.73

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

1 1 3

Derby winsDrawsMiddlesbrough wins

5matches

2.00goals / match

40%over 2.5

40%both scored

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
29.11.25E1	Middlesbrough – Derby	2–1 (0–1)	1.71	3.60	5.00	2.20	1.67
01.03.25E1	Middlesbrough – Derby	1–0 (0–0)	1.65	3.60	5.50	1.90	1.95
17.08.24E1	Derby – Middlesbrough	1–0 (1–0)	3.50	3.50	2.00	1.85	2.00
12.02.22E1	Middlesbrough – Derby	4–1 (3–1)	1.61	3.80	5.75	2.10	1.72
21.08.21E1	Derby – Middlesbrough	0–0 (0–0)	3.10	3.10	2.45	2.30	1.61

England Championship table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Coventry	24	15	6	3	54	25	+29	51
2	Middlesbrough	24	12	7	5	33	25	+8	43
3	Ipswich	24	11	8	5	40	23	+17	41
4	Hull	24	12	5	7	40	37	+3	41
5	Millwall	24	11	6	7	27	32	-5	39
6	Watford	24	10	8	6	34	29	+5	38
7	Preston	24	9	10	5	31	25	+6	37
8	Wrexham	25	9	10	6	36	31	+5	37
9	Bristol City	24	10	6	8	33	27	+6	36
10	QPR	24	10	5	9	34	37	-3	35
11	Stoke	24	10	4	10	29	23	+6	34
12	Leicester	24	9	7	8	34	34	0	34
13	Southampton	24	8	8	8	38	34	+4	32
14	Derby	24	8	8	8	33	33	0	32
15	Birmingham	24	8	7	9	32	31	+1	31
16	West Brom	24	9	4	11	28	32	-4	31
17	Sheffield United	24	9	2	13	33	37	-4	29
18	Swansea	24	8	5	11	25	31	-6	29
19	Blackburn	24	7	6	11	22	28	-6	27
20	Charlton	23	7	6	10	22	29	-7	27
21	Portsmouth	23	6	7	10	21	30	-9	25
22	Oxford	24	5	7	12	24	33	-9	22
23	Norwich	24	5	6	13	26	36	-10	21
24	Sheffield Weds	23	1	8	14	18	45	-27	11

Home – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Coventry	12	9	2	1	27	9	+18	29
2	Ipswich	12	7	4	1	22	10	+12	25
3	Watford	12	7	4	1	20	12	+8	25
4	Middlesbrough	12	7	3	2	16	11	+5	24
5	Birmingham	12	6	5	1	24	11	+13	23
6	Wrexham	13	6	5	2	24	19	+5	23
7	Hull	12	7	2	3	19	18	+1	23
8	Millwall	13	7	2	4	15	16	-1	23
9	West Brom	12	6	4	2	16	11	+5	22
10	Stoke	12	6	2	4	18	10	+8	20
11	QPR	11	6	2	3	20	15	+5	20
12	Preston	12	5	5	2	16	12	+4	20
13	Southampton	11	5	4	2	17	11	+6	19
14	Leicester	12	5	4	3	17	14	+3	19
15	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	18	13	+5	18
16	Portsmouth	13	5	3	5	14	14	0	18
17	Swansea	12	5	3	4	15	16	-1	18
18	Charlton	10	5	2	3	12	11	+1	17
19	Sheffield United	11	4	2	5	15	12	+3	14
20	Derby	12	3	5	4	15	18	-3	14
21	Oxford	12	3	4	5	13	17	-4	13
22	Norwich	12	3	1	8	12	17	-5	10
23	Blackburn	12	2	3	7	11	18	-7	9
24	Sheffield Weds	13	0	4	9	7	29	-22	4

Away – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Coventry	12	6	4	2	27	16	+11	22
2	Middlesbrough	12	5	4	3	17	14	+3	19
3	Derby	12	5	3	4	18	15	+3	18
4	Hull	12	5	3	4	21	19	+2	18
5	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	15	14	+1	18
6	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	11	10	+1	18
7	Preston	12	4	5	3	15	13	+2	17
8	Ipswich	12	4	4	4	18	13	+5	16
9	Millwall	11	4	4	3	12	16	-4	16
10	Leicester	12	4	3	5	17	20	-3	15
11	Sheffield United	13	5	0	8	18	25	-7	15
12	QPR	13	4	3	6	14	22	-8	15
13	Wrexham	12	3	5	4	12	12	0	14
14	Stoke	12	4	2	6	11	13	-2	14
15	Southampton	13	3	4	6	21	23	-2	13
16	Watford	12	3	4	5	14	17	-3	13
17	Norwich	12	2	5	5	14	19	-5	11
18	Swansea	12	3	2	7	10	15	-5	11
19	Charlton	13	2	4	7	10	18	-8	10
20	Oxford	12	2	3	7	11	16	-5	9
21	West Brom	12	3	0	9	12	21	-9	9
22	Birmingham	12	2	2	8	8	20	-12	8
23	Sheffield Weds	10	1	4	5	11	16	-5	7
24	Portsmouth	10	1	4	5	7	16	-9	7

Derby Middlesbrough

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1	4	Hull	24	8	16	1.7	1.5	12	5	7	40	37	41
2	13	Southampton	24	8	16	1.6	1.4	8	8	8	38	34	32
3	10	QPR	24	9	15	1.4	1.5	10	5	9	34	37	35
4	12	Leicester	24	9	15	1.4	1.4	9	7	8	34	34	34
5	1	Coventry	24	10	14	2.2	1.0	15	6	3	54	25	51
6	17	Sheffield United	24	10	14	1.4	1.5	9	2	13	33	37	29
7	24	Sheffield Weds	23	9	14	0.8	2.0	1	8	14	18	45	11
8	6	Watford	24	11	13	1.4	1.2	10	8	6	34	29	38
9	2	Middlesbrough	24	12	12	1.4	1.0	12	7	5	33	25	43
10	3	Ipswich	24	12	12	1.7	1.0	11	8	5	40	23	41
11	14	Derby	24	12	12	1.4	1.4	8	8	8	33	33	32
12	15	Birmingham	24	12	12	1.3	1.3	8	7	9	32	31	31
13	16	West Brom	24	12	12	1.2	1.3	9	4	11	28	32	31
14	22	Oxford	24	12	12	1.0	1.4	5	7	12	24	33	22
15	5	Millwall	24	13	11	1.1	1.3	11	6	7	27	32	39
16	9	Bristol City	24	13	11	1.4	1.1	10	6	8	33	27	36
17	11	Stoke	24	13	11	1.2	1.0	10	4	10	29	23	34
18	18	Swansea	24	13	11	1.0	1.3	8	5	11	25	31	29
19	23	Norwich	24	13	11	1.1	1.5	5	6	13	26	36	21
20	7	Preston	24	14	10	1.3	1.0	9	10	5	31	25	37
21	8	Wrexham	25	15	10	1.4	1.2	9	10	6	36	31	37
22	21	Portsmouth	23	13	10	0.9	1.3	6	7	10	21	30	25
23	19	Blackburn	24	15	9	0.9	1.2	7	6	11	22	28	27
24	20	Charlton	23	14	9	1.0	1.3	7	6	10	22	29	27

Home – Under/Over goals
#
1	10	QPR	11	3	8	1.8	1.4	6	2	3	20	15	20
2	24	Sheffield Weds	13	5	8	0.5	2.2	0	4	9	7	29	4
3	3	Ipswich	12	5	7	1.8	0.8	7	4	1	22	10	25
4	4	Hull	12	5	7	1.6	1.5	7	2	3	19	18	23
5	6	Watford	12	5	7	1.7	1.0	7	4	1	20	12	25
6	8	Wrexham	13	6	7	1.8	1.5	6	5	2	24	19	23
7	22	Oxford	12	5	7	1.1	1.4	3	4	5	13	17	13
8	1	Coventry	12	6	6	2.2	0.8	9	2	1	27	9	29
9	2	Middlesbrough	12	6	6	1.3	0.9	7	3	2	16	11	24
10	5	Millwall	13	7	6	1.2	1.2	7	2	4	15	16	23
11	9	Bristol City	12	6	6	1.5	1.1	5	3	4	18	13	18
12	11	Stoke	12	6	6	1.5	0.8	6	2	4	18	10	20
13	12	Leicester	12	6	6	1.4	1.2	5	4	3	17	14	19
14	13	Southampton	11	5	6	1.5	1.0	5	4	2	17	11	19
15	15	Birmingham	12	6	6	2.0	0.9	6	5	1	24	11	23
16	17	Sheffield United	11	5	6	1.4	1.1	4	2	5	15	12	14
17	18	Swansea	12	6	6	1.2	1.3	5	3	4	15	16	18
18	21	Portsmouth	13	7	6	1.1	1.1	5	3	5	14	14	18
19	23	Norwich	12	6	6	1.0	1.4	3	1	8	12	17	10
20	7	Preston	12	7	5	1.3	1.0	5	5	2	16	12	20
21	16	West Brom	12	7	5	1.3	0.9	6	4	2	16	11	22
22	19	Blackburn	12	7	5	0.9	1.5	2	3	7	11	18	9
23	14	Derby	12	8	4	1.2	1.5	3	5	4	15	18	14
24	20	Charlton	10	6	4	1.2	1.1	5	2	3	12	11	17

Away – Under/Over goals
#
1	13	Southampton	13	3	10	1.6	1.8	3	4	6	21	23	13
2	4	Hull	12	3	9	1.8	1.6	5	3	4	21	19	18
3	12	Leicester	12	3	9	1.4	1.7	4	3	5	17	20	15
4	1	Coventry	12	4	8	2.2	1.3	6	4	2	27	16	22
5	14	Derby	12	4	8	1.5	1.2	5	3	4	18	15	18
6	17	Sheffield United	13	5	8	1.4	1.9	5	0	8	18	25	15
7	10	QPR	13	6	7	1.1	1.7	4	3	6	14	22	15
8	16	West Brom	12	5	7	1.0	1.8	3	0	9	12	21	9
9	2	Middlesbrough	12	6	6	1.4	1.2	5	4	3	17	14	19
10	6	Watford	12	6	6	1.2	1.4	3	4	5	14	17	13
11	15	Birmingham	12	6	6	0.7	1.7	2	2	8	8	20	8
12	24	Sheffield Weds	10	4	6	1.1	1.6	1	4	5	11	16	7
13	3	Ipswich	12	7	5	1.5	1.1	4	4	4	18	13	16
14	5	Millwall	11	6	5	1.1	1.5	4	4	3	12	16	16
15	7	Preston	12	7	5	1.2	1.1	4	5	3	15	13	17
16	9	Bristol City	12	7	5	1.2	1.2	5	3	4	15	14	18
17	11	Stoke	12	7	5	0.9	1.1	4	2	6	11	13	14
18	18	Swansea	12	7	5	0.8	1.2	3	2	7	10	15	11
19	20	Charlton	13	8	5	0.8	1.4	2	4	7	10	18	10
20	22	Oxford	12	7	5	0.9	1.3	2	3	7	11	16	9
21	23	Norwich	12	7	5	1.2	1.6	2	5	5	14	19	11
22	19	Blackburn	12	8	4	0.9	0.8	5	3	4	11	10	18
23	21	Portsmouth	10	6	4	0.7	1.6	1	4	5	7	16	7
24	8	Wrexham	12	9	3	1.0	1.0	3	5	4	12	12	14

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.