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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
Portugal Primeira Liga ·

Sp Lisbon 4–0 Estrela

Full time · half time 3–0 · season 2025/2026

Home ✓ 1.10 fair 1.85
Draw 9.00 fair 4.27
Away 15.00 fair 4.41
Under 2.5 2.88 fair 2.16
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.40 fair 1.86

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Sp Lisbon Estrela
19 Shots 5
6 Shots on target 3
5 Corners 1
12 Fouls 12
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (105 league matches this season so far).
Result Sp Lisbon to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.85
Expected goals 1.77 – 1.06
Home / Draw / Away
Sp LisbonDrawEstrela
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.1% 1–0 10.5% 2–1 9.8%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Sp Lisbon before this match, all matches
2.55points / match
2.45scored / match
0.55conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 11 played · 27:6
Estrela before this match, all matches
1.00points / match
1.18scored / match
1.27conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 11 played · 13:14
Sp Lisbon all matches all matches Estrela

Per match

2.45 Goals scored 1.18
0.55 Goals conceded 1.27
3.00 Total goals 2.45
20.55 Shots 12.00
7.73 Shots on target 3.64
7.64 Shots faced 12.09
7.64 Corners 3.73
2.73 Corners against 4.73
11.82 Fouls 14.27
2.09 Yellow cards 2.73
0.82 1st-half goals scored 0.64
0.27 1st-half goals conceded 0.73

How often Full Time

82% Wins 18%
9% Draws 45%
9% Losses 36%
100% Over 0.5 goals 82%
91% Over 1.5 goals 73%
64% Over 2.5 goals 36%
18% Over 3.5 goals 18%
18% Over 4.5 goals 9%
9% Over 5.5 goals 9%
45% Both teams scored 45%
55% Clean sheets 27%
0% Failed to score 45%

How often Half Time

45% Wins 27%
45% Draws 27%
9% Losses 45%
73% Over 0.5 goals 73%
27% Over 1.5 goals 36%
9% Over 2.5 goals 27%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Sp Lisbon all matches
Estrela all matches
Sp Lisbon before this match, at home
2.00points / match
2.60scored / match
0.60conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 5 played · 13:3
Estrela before this match, away
1.20points / match
1.20scored / match
1.20conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 5 played · 6:6
Sp Lisbon at home away Estrela

Per match

2.60 Goals scored 1.20
0.60 Goals conceded 1.20
3.20 Total goals 2.40
20.80 Shots 9.40
7.60 Shots on target 3.80
8.80 Shots faced 12.60
5.60 Corners 3.00
2.60 Corners against 5.40
11.80 Fouls 15.20
2.00 Yellow cards 2.40
0.80 1st-half goals scored 0.40
0.00 1st-half goals conceded 0.80

How often Full Time

60% Wins 20%
20% Draws 60%
20% Losses 20%
100% Over 0.5 goals 60%
100% Over 1.5 goals 60%
60% Over 2.5 goals 20%
20% Over 3.5 goals 20%
20% Over 4.5 goals 20%
20% Over 5.5 goals 20%
40% Both teams scored 40%
60% Clean sheets 40%
0% Failed to score 60%

How often Half Time

40% Wins 20%
60% Draws 40%
0% Losses 40%
40% Over 0.5 goals 60%
20% Over 1.5 goals 40%
20% Over 2.5 goals 20%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Sp Lisbon at home
Estrela away

Last 10 matches before this match

Sp Lisbon all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
08.11.25 Santa Clara – Sp Lisbon 1–2 (1–1) 7.004.501.39 2.05 1.80
31.10.25 Sp Lisbon – Alverca 2–0 (0–0) 1.109.0017.00 1.36 3.10
26.10.25 Tondela – Sp Lisbon 0–3 (0–1) 9.006.001.24 1.53 2.40
05.10.25 Sp Lisbon – Sp Braga 1–1 (1–0) 1.414.337.00 1.67 2.15
27.09.25 Estoril – Sp Lisbon 0–1 (0–1) 9.505.501.25 1.53 2.40
22.09.25 Sp Lisbon – Moreirense 3–0 (0–0) 1.177.0012.00 1.57 2.35
13.09.25 Famalicao – Sp Lisbon 1–2 (1–1) 7.005.001.39 1.70 2.10
30.08.25 Sp Lisbon – Porto 1–2 (0–0) 1.963.503.60 1.85 2.00
23.08.25 Nacional – Sp Lisbon 1–4 (1–0) 9.006.001.27 1.50 2.50
17.08.25 Sp Lisbon – Arouca 6–0 (3–0) 1.296.008.50 1.57 2.35

Estrela all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.11.25 Estrela – Nacional 1–1 (0–1) 2.703.202.50 2.15 1.67
01.11.25 Casa Pia – Estrela 3–5 (1–2) 2.013.053.90 2.40 1.53
25.10.25 Estrela – Rio Ave 1–2 (1–0) 2.573.202.70 2.15 1.67
04.10.25 Gil Vicente – Estrela 2–0 (2–0) 1.613.755.25 2.20 1.65
27.09.25 Estrela – AVS 3–0 (3–0) 2.053.103.80 2.40 1.53
21.09.25 Tondela – Estrela 0–0 (0–0) 2.252.853.60 2.50 1.50
14.09.25 Estrela – Guimaraes 0–2 (0–1) 3.303.302.15 2.25 1.62
31.08.25 Santa Clara – Estrela 0–0 (0–0) 1.813.404.33 2.40 1.53
25.08.25 Estrela – Alverca 2–2 (1–2) 1.903.404.10 2.25 1.62
16.08.25 Estrela – Benfica 0–1 (0–0) 13.006.501.20 1.57 2.35

Sp Lisbon at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
31.10.25 Sp Lisbon – Alverca 2–0 (0–0) 1.109.0017.00 1.36 3.10
05.10.25 Sp Lisbon – Sp Braga 1–1 (1–0) 1.414.337.00 1.67 2.15
22.09.25 Sp Lisbon – Moreirense 3–0 (0–0) 1.177.0012.00 1.57 2.35
30.08.25 Sp Lisbon – Porto 1–2 (0–0) 1.963.503.60 1.85 2.00
17.08.25 Sp Lisbon – Arouca 6–0 (3–0) 1.296.008.50 1.57 2.35
17.05.25 Sp Lisbon – Guimaraes 2–0 (0–0) 1.255.5012.00 1.53 2.40
04.05.25 Sp Lisbon – Gil Vicente 2–1 (0–1) 1.137.5021.00 1.50 2.50
18.04.25 Sp Lisbon – Moreirense 3–1 (2–0) 1.226.0013.00 1.65 2.20
07.04.25 Sp Lisbon – Sp Braga 1–1 (1–0) 1.534.006.25 1.73 2.08
15.03.25 Sp Lisbon – Famalicao 3–1 (1–1) 1.305.509.00 1.67 2.15

Estrela away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.11.25 Casa Pia – Estrela 3–5 (1–2) 2.013.053.90 2.40 1.53
04.10.25 Gil Vicente – Estrela 2–0 (2–0) 1.613.755.25 2.20 1.65
21.09.25 Tondela – Estrela 0–0 (0–0) 2.252.853.60 2.50 1.50
31.08.25 Santa Clara – Estrela 0–0 (0–0) 1.813.404.33 2.40 1.53
11.08.25 Estoril – Estrela 1–1 (1–0) 1.853.504.20 2.05 1.75
17.05.25 Estoril – Estrela 4–0 (4–0) 2.503.302.75 2.03 1.83
05.05.25 Rio Ave – Estrela 2–0 (0–0) 2.353.303.00 2.08 1.73
19.04.25 Arouca – Estrela 1–0 (0–0) 1.903.304.20 2.10 1.70
06.04.25 Nacional – Estrela 0–1 (0–0) 2.053.203.70 2.35 1.57
16.03.25 Guimaraes – Estrela 2–0 (1–0) 1.454.107.50 2.08 1.73

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Sp Lisbon winsDrawsEstrela wins
4matches
4.25goals / match
100%over 2.5
75%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
29.03.25P1 Estrela – Sp Lisbon 0–3 (0–0) 9.005.001.33 1.73 2.08
01.11.24P1 Sp Lisbon – Estrela 5–1 (3–1) 1.0811.0019.00 1.30 3.50
29.03.24P1 Estrela – Sp Lisbon 1–2 (1–2) 13.007.001.20 1.53 2.40
05.11.23P1 Sp Lisbon – Estrela 3–2 (1–0) 1.256.0010.00 1.44 2.70

Portugal Primeira Liga table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Porto 11 10 1 0 24 3 +21 31 WWDWWW
2 Sp Lisbon 11 9 1 1 27 6 +21 28 WWDWWW
3 Benfica 12 8 4 0 25 7 +18 28 WDWWDW
4 Gil Vicente 12 7 2 3 16 6 +10 23 LWWWDL
5 Famalicao 12 5 5 2 13 7 +6 20 DDWWLD
6 Moreirense 12 6 1 5 18 17 +1 19 WLLWLD
7 Guimaraes 12 5 2 5 14 17 -3 17 LWLLWW
8 Sp Braga 11 4 4 3 19 11 +8 16 DLDWLW
9 Alverca 12 4 2 6 14 19 -5 14 WWLLDW
10 Estoril 11 3 4 4 19 17 +2 13 LLDDWW
11 Rio Ave 12 2 7 3 15 20 -5 13 DWWLDD
12 Santa Clara 12 3 3 6 10 14 -4 12 LLWLLD
13 Nacional 12 3 3 6 12 17 -5 12 WWDLDL
14 Estrela 11 2 5 4 13 14 -1 11 DWLLWD
15 Casa Pia 12 2 3 7 13 26 -13 9 LDLLDL
16 Tondela 12 2 3 7 7 20 -13 9 WLLDLW
17 Arouca 11 2 3 6 13 30 -17 9 WLDLLL
18 AVS 12 0 3 9 8 29 -21 3 LLLDDL
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Porto 5 4 1 0 10 1 +9 13 WWWDW
2 Moreirense 6 4 1 1 12 7 +5 13 WWWWLD
3 Benfica 6 3 3 0 14 5 +9 12 WDDWWD
4 Gil Vicente 6 4 0 2 7 3 +4 12 LWWWWL
5 Guimaraes 6 3 2 1 11 8 +3 11 WDDWLW
6 Sp Lisbon 5 3 1 1 13 3 +10 10 WLWDW
7 Sp Braga 6 3 1 2 11 5 +6 10 WDLLWW
8 Famalicao 6 2 2 2 6 3 +3 8 WDLDWL
9 Estoril 6 2 2 2 9 8 +1 8 DLWLDW
10 Santa Clara 6 2 1 3 6 6 0 7 LDWLWL
11 Alverca 6 2 1 3 5 10 -5 7 LLWWLD
12 Rio Ave 6 1 3 2 7 11 -4 6 DDLWLD
13 Estrela 6 1 2 3 7 8 -1 5 LDLWLD
14 Arouca 6 1 2 3 7 13 -6 5 WDLLDL
15 Nacional 6 1 0 5 6 13 -7 3 LLLWLL
16 Tondela 5 0 2 3 2 7 -5 2 LDDLL
17 Casa Pia 6 0 2 4 6 14 -8 2 LLDDLL
18 AVS 6 0 2 4 4 12 -8 2 LLLLDD
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Porto 6 6 0 0 14 2 +12 18 WWWWWW
2 Sp Lisbon 6 6 0 0 14 3 +11 18 WWWWWW
3 Benfica 6 5 1 0 11 2 +9 16 WWWDWW
4 Famalicao 6 3 3 0 7 4 +3 12 WWDDWD
5 Gil Vicente 6 3 2 1 9 3 +6 11 WDWLWD
6 Nacional 6 2 3 1 6 4 +2 9 DWLWDD
7 Alverca 6 2 1 3 9 9 0 7 LDLWLW
8 Rio Ave 6 1 4 1 8 9 -1 7 DLDDWD
9 Casa Pia 6 2 1 3 7 12 -5 7 WLWLLD
10 Tondela 7 2 1 4 5 13 -8 7 LLWLDW
11 Sp Braga 5 1 3 1 8 6 +2 6 WDDDL
12 Estrela 5 1 3 1 6 6 0 6 DDDLW
13 Moreirense 6 2 0 4 6 10 -4 6 WLLLWL
14 Guimaraes 6 2 0 4 3 9 -6 6 LLWLLW
15 Estoril 5 1 2 2 10 9 +1 5 LDLDW
16 Santa Clara 6 1 2 3 4 8 -4 5 LWDLLD
17 Arouca 5 1 1 3 6 17 -11 4 LDWLL
18 AVS 6 0 1 5 4 17 -13 1 LDLLLL

Sp Lisbon   Estrela

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 3 Benfica 12 4 8 2.1 0.6 8 4 0 25 7 28 OUOOOO
2 6 Moreirense 12 4 8 1.5 1.4 6 1 5 18 17 19 OOOUOO
3 18 AVS 12 4 8 0.7 2.4 0 3 9 8 29 3 OOUOUO
4 1 Porto 11 4 7 2.2 0.3 10 1 0 24 3 31 OOUOOU
5 2 Sp Lisbon 11 4 7 2.5 0.5 9 1 1 27 6 28 OUUOUO
6 8 Sp Braga 11 4 7 1.7 1.0 4 4 3 19 11 16 UUUOOO
7 9 Alverca 12 5 7 1.2 1.6 4 2 6 14 19 14 UOOUUU
8 11 Rio Ave 12 5 7 1.2 1.7 2 7 3 15 20 13 UOOOUU
9 16 Tondela 12 5 7 0.6 1.7 2 3 7 7 20 9 OOOOUU
10 17 Arouca 11 4 7 1.2 2.7 2 3 6 13 30 9 OOUOUO
11 10 Estoril 11 5 6 1.7 1.5 3 4 4 19 17 13 UUOUOO
12 15 Casa Pia 12 6 6 1.1 2.2 2 3 7 13 26 9 OOOOOU
13 7 Guimaraes 12 7 5 1.2 1.4 5 2 5 14 17 17 UOUOUO
14 12 Santa Clara 12 7 5 0.8 1.2 3 3 6 10 14 12 OOUUOU
15 13 Nacional 12 8 4 1.0 1.4 3 3 6 12 17 12 UOUUUO
16 14 Estrela 11 7 4 1.2 1.3 2 5 4 13 14 11 UOUOOU
17 5 Famalicao 12 9 3 1.1 0.6 5 5 2 13 7 20 UUUUUO
18 4 Gil Vicente 12 10 2 1.3 0.5 7 2 3 16 6 23 OUOUUU
Home – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 6 Moreirense 6 1 5 2.0 1.2 4 1 1 12 7 13 OUOOOO
2 3 Benfica 6 2 4 2.3 0.8 3 3 0 14 5 12 OUUOOO
3 7 Guimaraes 6 2 4 1.8 1.3 3 2 1 11 8 11 OUUOOO
4 8 Sp Braga 6 2 4 1.8 0.8 3 1 2 11 5 10 OOUUOO
5 11 Rio Ave 6 2 4 1.2 1.8 1 3 2 7 11 6 UOOOOU
6 13 Nacional 6 2 4 1.0 2.2 1 0 5 6 13 3 UOOOUO
7 1 Porto 5 2 3 2.0 0.2 4 1 0 10 1 13 OOUUO
8 2 Sp Lisbon 5 2 3 2.6 0.6 3 1 1 13 3 10 OOOUU
9 9 Alverca 6 3 3 0.8 1.7 2 1 3 5 10 7 OOUUOU
10 12 Santa Clara 6 3 3 1.0 1.0 2 1 3 6 6 7 UUOOUO
11 14 Estrela 6 3 3 1.2 1.3 1 2 3 7 8 5 UOUOOU
12 17 Arouca 6 3 3 1.2 2.2 1 2 3 7 13 5 OOUOUU
13 18 AVS 6 3 3 0.7 2.0 0 2 4 4 12 2 UUOOOU
14 5 Famalicao 6 4 2 1.0 0.5 2 2 2 6 3 8 OUOUUU
15 10 Estoril 6 4 2 1.5 1.3 2 2 2 9 8 8 UUOUUO
16 15 Casa Pia 6 4 2 1.0 2.3 0 2 4 6 14 2 UUUOOU
17 16 Tondela 5 3 2 0.4 1.4 0 2 3 2 7 2 UOUOU
18 4 Gil Vicente 6 6 0 1.2 0.5 4 0 2 7 3 12 UUUUUU
Away – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 16 Tondela 7 2 5 0.7 1.9 2 1 4 5 13 7 OUOOOU
2 18 AVS 6 1 5 0.7 2.8 0 1 5 4 17 1 OOOOUO
3 1 Porto 6 2 4 2.3 0.3 6 0 0 14 2 18 UOOOOU
4 2 Sp Lisbon 6 2 4 2.3 0.5 6 0 0 14 3 18 UOOUOO
5 3 Benfica 6 2 4 1.8 0.3 5 1 0 11 2 16 UOOUOO
6 9 Alverca 6 2 4 1.5 1.5 2 1 3 9 9 7 OOOOUU
7 10 Estoril 5 1 4 2.0 1.8 1 2 2 10 9 5 OOUOO
8 15 Casa Pia 6 2 4 1.2 2.0 2 1 3 7 12 7 UOUOOO
9 17 Arouca 5 1 4 1.2 3.4 1 1 3 6 17 4 OUOOO
10 6 Moreirense 6 3 3 1.0 1.7 2 0 4 6 10 6 UUOOUO
11 8 Sp Braga 5 2 3 1.6 1.2 1 3 1 8 6 6 OOUUO
12 11 Rio Ave 6 3 3 1.3 1.5 1 4 1 8 9 7 OOUUOU
13 4 Gil Vicente 6 4 2 1.5 0.5 3 2 1 9 3 11 UUUOOU
14 12 Santa Clara 6 4 2 0.7 1.3 1 2 3 4 8 5 OUUOUU
15 5 Famalicao 6 5 1 1.2 0.7 3 3 0 7 4 12 UUUUUO
16 7 Guimaraes 6 5 1 0.5 1.5 2 0 4 3 9 6 OUUUUU
17 14 Estrela 5 4 1 1.2 1.2 1 3 1 6 6 6 UUUUO
18 13 Nacional 6 6 0 1.0 0.7 2 3 1 6 4 9 UUUUUU

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Streak = last 6 matches, oldest left: O / U over or under the line, Y / N on the BTTS tab. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 2 Nov 2026, 20:47