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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
Portugal Primeira Liga ·

Estrela 1–1 Nacional

Full time · half time 0–1 · season 2025/2026

Home 2.70 fair 2.52
Draw ✓ 3.20 fair 3.78
Away 2.50 fair 2.95
Under 2.5 ✓ 1.67 fair 1.91
Over 2.5 2.15 fair 2.10

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Estrela Nacional
14 Shots 17
4 Shots on target 4
2 Corners 6
12 Fouls 15
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (94 league matches this season so far).
Result Estrela to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.91
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.23
Home / Draw / Away
EstrelaDrawNacional
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 12.6% 1–0 10.3% 0–1 9.3%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Estrela before this match, all matches
1.00points / match
1.20scored / match
1.30conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 10 played · 12:13
Nacional before this match, all matches
1.10points / match
1.00scored / match
1.40conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 10 played · 10:14
Estrela all matches all matches Nacional

Per match

1.20 Goals scored 1.00
1.30 Goals conceded 1.40
2.50 Total goals 2.40
11.80 Shots 10.70
3.60 Shots on target 3.90
11.60 Shots faced 14.10
3.90 Corners 4.70
4.60 Corners against 6.30
14.50 Fouls 15.20
2.70 Yellow cards 2.90
0.70 1st-half goals scored 0.60
0.70 1st-half goals conceded 0.60

How often Full Time

20% Wins 30%
40% Draws 20%
40% Losses 50%
80% Over 0.5 goals 100%
70% Over 1.5 goals 70%
40% Over 2.5 goals 30%
20% Over 3.5 goals 20%
10% Over 4.5 goals 20%
10% Over 5.5 goals 0%
40% Both teams scored 50%
30% Clean sheets 20%
50% Failed to score 30%

How often Half Time

30% Wins 40%
30% Draws 20%
40% Losses 40%
70% Over 0.5 goals 90%
40% Over 1.5 goals 30%
30% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Estrela all matches
Nacional all matches
Estrela before this match, at home
0.80points / match
1.20scored / match
1.40conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 5 played · 6:7
Nacional before this match, away
1.60points / match
1.00scored / match
0.60conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 5 played · 5:3
Estrela at home away Nacional

Per match

1.20 Goals scored 1.00
1.40 Goals conceded 0.60
2.60 Total goals 1.60
14.20 Shots 9.80
3.40 Shots on target 3.60
10.60 Shots faced 12.40
4.80 Corners 4.40
3.80 Corners against 5.00
13.80 Fouls 15.20
3.00 Yellow cards 3.20
1.00 1st-half goals scored 0.80
0.60 1st-half goals conceded 0.40

How often Full Time

20% Wins 40%
20% Draws 40%
60% Losses 20%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
80% Over 1.5 goals 60%
60% Over 2.5 goals 0%
20% Over 3.5 goals 0%
0% Over 4.5 goals 0%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
40% Both teams scored 40%
20% Clean sheets 40%
40% Failed to score 20%

How often Half Time

40% Wins 60%
20% Draws 0%
40% Losses 40%
80% Over 0.5 goals 100%
40% Over 1.5 goals 20%
40% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Estrela at home
Nacional away

Last 10 matches before this match

Estrela all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.11.25 Casa Pia – Estrela 3–5 (1–2) 2.013.053.90 2.40 1.53
25.10.25 Estrela – Rio Ave 1–2 (1–0) 2.573.202.70 2.15 1.67
04.10.25 Gil Vicente – Estrela 2–0 (2–0) 1.613.755.25 2.20 1.65
27.09.25 Estrela – AVS 3–0 (3–0) 2.053.103.80 2.40 1.53
21.09.25 Tondela – Estrela 0–0 (0–0) 2.252.853.60 2.50 1.50
14.09.25 Estrela – Guimaraes 0–2 (0–1) 3.303.302.15 2.25 1.62
31.08.25 Santa Clara – Estrela 0–0 (0–0) 1.813.404.33 2.40 1.53
25.08.25 Estrela – Alverca 2–2 (1–2) 1.903.404.10 2.25 1.62
16.08.25 Estrela – Benfica 0–1 (0–0) 13.006.501.20 1.57 2.35
11.08.25 Estoril – Estrela 1–1 (1–0) 1.853.504.20 2.05 1.75

Nacional all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.11.25 Nacional – Famalicao 0–1 (0–1) 3.203.252.20 2.05 1.75
26.10.25 Estoril – Nacional 1–1 (0–1) 2.153.253.30 2.05 1.75
04.10.25 Nacional – Moreirense 3–2 (1–1) 2.323.103.10 2.35 1.57
28.09.25 Sp Braga – Nacional 0–1 (0–1) 1.394.337.50 1.83 2.03
20.09.25 Nacional – Arouca 1–2 (0–0) 2.453.102.85 2.08 1.73
13.09.25 Porto – Nacional 1–0 (1–0) 1.156.5017.00 1.57 2.35
30.08.25 Casa Pia – Nacional 0–2 (0–2) 2.153.203.40 2.25 1.62
23.08.25 Nacional – Sp Lisbon 1–4 (1–0) 9.006.001.27 1.50 2.50
17.08.25 Rio Ave – Nacional 1–1 (1–0) 2.253.203.20 2.05 1.75
09.08.25 Nacional – Gil Vicente 0–2 (0–2) 2.503.102.90 2.10 1.70

Estrela at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
25.10.25 Estrela – Rio Ave 1–2 (1–0) 2.573.202.70 2.15 1.67
27.09.25 Estrela – AVS 3–0 (3–0) 2.053.103.80 2.40 1.53
14.09.25 Estrela – Guimaraes 0–2 (0–1) 3.303.302.15 2.25 1.62
25.08.25 Estrela – Alverca 2–2 (1–2) 1.903.404.10 2.25 1.62
16.08.25 Estrela – Benfica 0–1 (0–0) 13.006.501.20 1.57 2.35
11.05.25 Estrela – AVS 0–1 (0–0) 1.903.603.80 2.15 1.67
26.04.25 Estrela – Porto 2–0 (1–0) 6.253.901.53 2.05 1.80
13.04.25 Estrela – Farense 0–1 (0–0) 2.703.002.75 2.50 1.50
29.03.25 Estrela – Sp Lisbon 0–3 (0–0) 9.005.001.33 1.73 2.08
07.03.25 Estrela – Gil Vicente 1–1 (0–0) 2.623.002.80 2.50 1.50

Nacional away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
26.10.25 Estoril – Nacional 1–1 (0–1) 2.153.253.30 2.05 1.75
28.09.25 Sp Braga – Nacional 0–1 (0–1) 1.394.337.50 1.83 2.03
13.09.25 Porto – Nacional 1–0 (1–0) 1.156.5017.00 1.57 2.35
30.08.25 Casa Pia – Nacional 0–2 (0–2) 2.153.203.40 2.25 1.62
17.08.25 Rio Ave – Nacional 1–1 (1–0) 2.253.203.20 2.05 1.75
17.05.25 Porto – Nacional 3–0 (1–0) 1.305.259.50 1.57 2.35
27.04.25 Moreirense – Nacional 1–1 (0–0) 2.203.103.60 2.20 1.65
12.04.25 Boavista – Nacional 0–1 (0–1) 2.753.102.63 2.15 1.67
30.03.25 Santa Clara – Nacional 1–0 (1–0) 1.903.204.33 2.50 1.50
08.03.25 Benfica – Nacional 3–0 (2–0) 1.227.0011.00 1.44 2.60

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Estrela winsDrawsNacional wins
2matches
1.50goals / match
0%over 2.5
0%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
06.04.25P1 Nacional – Estrela 0–1 (0–0) 2.053.203.70 2.35 1.57
10.11.24P1 Estrela – Nacional 2–0 (0–0) 2.203.403.20 2.10 1.70

Portugal Primeira Liga table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Sp Lisbon 11 9 1 1 27 6 +21 28 WWDWWW
2 Porto 10 9 1 0 23 3 +20 28 WWWDWW
3 Benfica 10 7 3 0 21 4 +17 24 WDWDWW
4 Gil Vicente 10 7 1 2 15 4 +11 22 WWLWWW
5 Famalicao 10 5 4 1 11 4 +7 19 LDDDWW
6 Moreirense 10 6 0 4 15 13 +2 18 WLWLLW
7 Guimaraes 11 4 2 5 10 17 -7 14 DLWLLW
8 Sp Braga 10 3 4 3 17 10 +7 13 LDLDWL
9 Estoril 11 3 4 4 19 17 +2 13 LLDDWW
10 Rio Ave 11 2 6 3 14 19 -5 12 DDWWLD
11 Nacional 10 3 2 5 10 14 -4 11 LLWWDL
12 Santa Clara 11 3 2 6 9 13 -4 11 WLLWLL
13 Alverca 11 3 2 6 12 19 -7 11 LWWLLD
14 Estrela 10 2 4 4 12 13 -1 10 LDWLLW
15 Arouca 11 2 3 6 13 30 -17 9 WLDLLL
16 Casa Pia 10 2 2 6 11 22 -11 8 WDLDLL
17 Tondela 11 1 3 7 6 20 -14 6 DWLLDL
18 AVS 10 0 2 8 7 24 -17 2 LLLLLD
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Porto 5 4 1 0 10 1 +9 13 WWWDW
2 Moreirense 5 4 0 1 10 5 +5 12 WWWWL
3 Gil Vicente 5 4 0 1 7 2 +5 12 LWWWW
4 Benfica 5 3 2 0 12 3 +9 11 WDDWW
5 Sp Lisbon 5 3 1 1 13 3 +10 10 WLWDW
6 Famalicao 5 2 2 1 6 2 +4 8 WDLDW
7 Estoril 6 2 2 2 9 8 +1 8 DLWLDW
8 Guimaraes 5 2 2 1 7 8 -1 8 WDDWL
9 Sp Braga 5 2 1 2 9 4 +5 7 WDLLW
10 Santa Clara 6 2 1 3 6 6 0 7 LDWLWL
11 Alverca 6 2 1 3 5 10 -5 7 LLWWLD
12 Rio Ave 5 1 2 2 6 10 -4 5 DDLWL
13 Arouca 6 1 2 3 7 13 -6 5 WDLLDL
14 Estrela 5 1 1 3 6 7 -1 4 LDLWL
15 Nacional 5 1 0 4 5 11 -6 3 LLLWL
16 Tondela 5 0 2 3 2 7 -5 2 LDDLL
17 Casa Pia 5 0 2 3 6 12 -6 2 LLDDL
18 AVS 5 0 1 4 3 11 -8 1 LLLLD
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Sp Lisbon 6 6 0 0 14 3 +11 18 WWWWWW
2 Porto 5 5 0 0 13 2 +11 15 WWWWW
3 Benfica 5 4 1 0 9 1 +8 13 WWWDW
4 Famalicao 5 3 2 0 5 2 +3 11 WWDDW
5 Gil Vicente 5 3 1 1 8 2 +6 10 WDWLW
6 Nacional 5 2 2 1 5 3 +2 8 DWLWD
7 Rio Ave 6 1 4 1 8 9 -1 7 DLDDWD
8 Sp Braga 5 1 3 1 8 6 +2 6 WDDDL
9 Estrela 5 1 3 1 6 6 0 6 DDDLW
10 Moreirense 5 2 0 3 5 8 -3 6 WLLLW
11 Casa Pia 5 2 0 3 5 10 -5 6 WLWLL
12 Guimaraes 6 2 0 4 3 9 -6 6 LLWLLW
13 Estoril 5 1 2 2 10 9 +1 5 LDLDW
14 Alverca 5 1 1 3 7 9 -2 4 LDLWL
15 Santa Clara 5 1 1 3 3 7 -4 4 LWDLL
16 Tondela 6 1 1 4 4 13 -9 4 LLLWLD
17 Arouca 5 1 1 3 6 17 -11 4 LDWLL
18 AVS 5 0 1 4 4 13 -9 1 LDLLL

Estrela   Nacional

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 1 Sp Lisbon 11 4 7 2.5 0.5 9 1 1 27 6 28 OUUOUO
2 2 Porto 10 3 7 2.3 0.3 9 1 0 23 3 28 UOOUOO
3 10 Rio Ave 11 4 7 1.3 1.7 2 6 3 14 19 12 UUOOOU
4 13 Alverca 11 4 7 1.1 1.7 3 2 6 12 19 11 OUOOUU
5 15 Arouca 11 4 7 1.2 2.7 2 3 6 13 30 9 OOUOUO
6 17 Tondela 11 4 7 0.5 1.8 1 3 7 6 20 6 UOOOOU
7 18 AVS 10 3 7 0.7 2.4 0 2 8 7 24 2 OOOOUO
8 3 Benfica 10 4 6 2.1 0.4 7 3 0 21 4 24 OUOUOO
9 6 Moreirense 10 4 6 1.5 1.3 6 0 4 15 13 18 OOOOOU
10 8 Sp Braga 10 4 6 1.7 1.0 3 4 3 17 10 13 UUUUOO
11 9 Estoril 11 5 6 1.7 1.5 3 4 4 19 17 13 UUOUOO
12 12 Santa Clara 11 6 5 0.8 1.2 3 2 6 9 13 11 OOOUUO
13 16 Casa Pia 10 5 5 1.1 2.2 2 2 6 11 22 8 UUOOOO
14 7 Guimaraes 11 7 4 0.9 1.5 4 2 5 10 17 14 UUOUOU
15 14 Estrela 10 6 4 1.2 1.3 2 4 4 12 13 10 UUOUOO
16 11 Nacional 10 7 3 1.0 1.4 3 2 5 10 14 11 UOUOUU
17 4 Gil Vicente 10 8 2 1.5 0.4 7 1 2 15 4 22 UUOUOU
18 5 Famalicao 10 8 2 1.1 0.4 5 4 1 11 4 19 OUUUUU
Home – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 6 Moreirense 5 1 4 2.0 1.0 4 0 1 10 5 12 OUOOO
2 10 Rio Ave 5 1 4 1.2 2.0 1 2 2 6 10 5 UOOOO
3 1 Sp Lisbon 5 2 3 2.6 0.6 3 1 1 13 3 10 OOOUU
4 2 Porto 5 2 3 2.0 0.2 4 1 0 10 1 13 OOUUO
5 3 Benfica 5 2 3 2.4 0.6 3 2 0 12 3 11 OUUOO
6 7 Guimaraes 5 2 3 1.4 1.6 2 2 1 7 8 8 OUUOO
7 8 Sp Braga 5 2 3 1.8 0.8 2 1 2 9 4 7 OOUUO
8 11 Nacional 5 2 3 1.0 2.2 1 0 4 5 11 3 UOOOU
9 12 Santa Clara 6 3 3 1.0 1.0 2 1 3 6 6 7 UUOOUO
10 13 Alverca 6 3 3 0.8 1.7 2 1 3 5 10 7 OOUUOU
11 14 Estrela 5 2 3 1.2 1.4 1 1 3 6 7 4 UOUOO
12 15 Arouca 6 3 3 1.2 2.2 1 2 3 7 13 5 OOUOUU
13 18 AVS 5 2 3 0.6 2.2 0 1 4 3 11 1 UUOOO
14 5 Famalicao 5 3 2 1.2 0.4 2 2 1 6 2 8 OUOUU
15 9 Estoril 6 4 2 1.5 1.3 2 2 2 9 8 8 UUOUUO
16 16 Casa Pia 5 3 2 1.2 2.4 0 2 3 6 12 2 UUUOO
17 17 Tondela 5 3 2 0.4 1.4 0 2 3 2 7 2 UOUOU
18 4 Gil Vicente 5 5 0 1.4 0.4 4 0 1 7 2 12 UUUUU
Away – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 17 Tondela 6 1 5 0.7 2.2 1 1 4 4 13 4 OOUOOO
2 1 Sp Lisbon 6 2 4 2.3 0.5 6 0 0 14 3 18 UOOUOO
3 2 Porto 5 1 4 2.6 0.4 5 0 0 13 2 15 UOOOO
4 9 Estoril 5 1 4 2.0 1.8 1 2 2 10 9 5 OOUOO
5 13 Alverca 5 1 4 1.4 1.8 1 1 3 7 9 4 OOOOU
6 15 Arouca 5 1 4 1.2 3.4 1 1 3 6 17 4 OUOOO
7 18 AVS 5 1 4 0.8 2.6 0 1 4 4 13 1 OOOOU
8 3 Benfica 5 2 3 1.8 0.2 4 1 0 9 1 13 UOOUO
9 8 Sp Braga 5 2 3 1.6 1.2 1 3 1 8 6 6 OOUUO
10 10 Rio Ave 6 3 3 1.3 1.5 1 4 1 8 9 7 OOUUOU
11 16 Casa Pia 5 2 3 1.0 2.0 2 0 3 5 10 6 UOUOO
12 4 Gil Vicente 5 3 2 1.6 0.4 3 1 1 8 2 10 UUUOO
13 6 Moreirense 5 3 2 1.0 1.6 2 0 3 5 8 6 UUOOU
14 12 Santa Clara 5 3 2 0.6 1.4 1 1 3 3 7 4 OUUOU
15 7 Guimaraes 6 5 1 0.5 1.5 2 0 4 3 9 6 OUUUUU
16 14 Estrela 5 4 1 1.2 1.2 1 3 1 6 6 6 UUUUO
17 5 Famalicao 5 5 0 1.0 0.4 3 2 0 5 2 11 UUUUU
18 11 Nacional 5 5 0 1.0 0.6 2 2 1 5 3 8 UUUUU

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Streak = last 6 matches, oldest left: O / U over or under the line, Y / N on the BTTS tab. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 4 Nov 2026, 06:11