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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: T Harrington

Middlesbrough 5–1 Luton

Full time · half time 2–0 · season 2024/2025

Home ✓ 1.73 fair 2.02
Draw 4.00 fair 3.91
Away 4.33 fair 4.02
Under 2.5 2.10 fair 1.89
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.73 fair 2.13

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Middlesbrough Luton
11 Shots 5
6 Shots on target 3
1 Corners 1
6 Fouls 15
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (169 league matches this season so far).
Result Middlesbrough to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 2.00
Expected goals 1.54 – 1.01
Home / Draw / Away
MiddlesbroughDrawLuton
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 12.1% 1–0 12% 2–1 9.4%

Statistics 2024/2025, before this match

Middlesbrough before this match, all matches
1.50points / match
1.29scored / match
1.14conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 14 played · 18:16
Luton before this match, all matches
1.07points / match
1.14scored / match
1.50conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 14 played · 16:21
Middlesbrough all matches all matches Luton

Per match

1.29 Goals scored 1.14
1.14 Goals conceded 1.50
2.43 Total goals 2.64
16.36 Shots 12.14
5.00 Shots on target 3.93
8.07 Shots faced 13.07
6.64 Corners 7.29
4.43 Corners against 4.86
9.21 Fouls 13.07
1.57 Yellow cards 2.21
0.64 1st-half goals scored 0.50
0.64 1st-half goals conceded 0.50

How often Full Time

43% Wins 29%
21% Draws 21%
36% Losses 50%
100% Over 0.5 goals 93%
64% Over 1.5 goals 71%
36% Over 2.5 goals 57%
21% Over 3.5 goals 29%
14% Over 4.5 goals 14%
7% Over 5.5 goals 0%
36% Both teams scored 57%
36% Clean sheets 29%
29% Failed to score 21%

How often Half Time

29% Wins 36%
36% Draws 29%
36% Losses 36%
71% Over 0.5 goals 71%
36% Over 1.5 goals 21%
14% Over 2.5 goals 7%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Middlesbrough all matches
Luton all matches
Middlesbrough before this match, at home
1.57points / match
1.00scored / match
1.14conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 7 played · 7:8
Luton before this match, away
0.67points / match
0.67scored / match
1.50conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 6 played · 4:9
Middlesbrough at home away Luton

Per match

1.00 Goals scored 0.67
1.14 Goals conceded 1.50
2.14 Total goals 2.17
19.43 Shots 11.50
5.00 Shots on target 3.83
7.57 Shots faced 15.33
8.29 Corners 7.83
4.14 Corners against 5.33
9.14 Fouls 13.17
1.57 Yellow cards 2.33
0.57 1st-half goals scored 0.50
0.86 1st-half goals conceded 0.50

How often Full Time

43% Wins 17%
29% Draws 17%
29% Losses 67%
100% Over 0.5 goals 83%
71% Over 1.5 goals 50%
29% Over 2.5 goals 33%
14% Over 3.5 goals 33%
0% Over 4.5 goals 17%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
29% Both teams scored 33%
43% Clean sheets 33%
29% Failed to score 50%

How often Half Time

29% Wins 33%
29% Draws 17%
43% Losses 50%
86% Over 0.5 goals 83%
43% Over 1.5 goals 17%
14% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Middlesbrough at home
Luton away

Last 10 matches before this match

Middlesbrough all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
05.11.24 QPR – Middlesbrough 1–4 (0–2) 3.503.601.95 1.88 1.98
02.11.24 Middlesbrough – Coventry 0–3 (0–1) 1.704.104.50 1.67 2.20
27.10.24 Norwich – Middlesbrough 3–3 (1–3) 2.753.302.50 1.73 2.10
23.10.24 Middlesbrough – Sheffield United 1–0 (0–0) 2.003.603.40 1.95 1.90
19.10.24 Middlesbrough – Bristol City 0–2 (0–2) 1.703.804.75 1.80 2.00
05.10.24 Watford – Middlesbrough 2–1 (0–0) 3.503.801.95 1.67 2.20
01.10.24 West Brom – Middlesbrough 0–1 (0–0) 2.403.402.80 1.90 1.95
28.09.24 Middlesbrough – Stoke 2–0 (1–0) 1.604.005.00 1.73 2.10
21.09.24 Sunderland – Middlesbrough 1–0 (1–0) 2.403.402.80 1.90 1.95
14.09.24 Middlesbrough – Preston 1–1 (1–1) 1.454.207.00 1.73 2.10

Luton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
06.11.24 Luton – Cardiff 1–0 (0–0) 1.853.504.20 1.83 2.03
01.11.24 Luton – West Brom 1–1 (0–1) 2.703.402.50 2.00 1.85
26.10.24 Coventry – Luton 3–2 (0–2) 2.203.403.20 1.83 2.03
23.10.24 Luton – Sunderland 1–2 (0–0) 2.553.302.75 1.98 1.88
19.10.24 Luton – Watford 3–0 (1–0) 2.003.204.00 1.73 2.10
05.10.24 Sheffield United – Luton 2–0 (1–0) 1.903.703.90 1.90 1.95
01.10.24 Luton – Oxford 2–2 (2–1) 1.673.904.50 1.88 1.98
27.09.24 Plymouth – Luton 3–1 (1–0) 4.003.701.85 1.62 2.30
21.09.24 Luton – Sheffield Weds 2–1 (0–0) 1.903.504.00 1.85 2.00
14.09.24 Millwall – Luton 0–1 (0–1) 2.633.302.63 2.00 1.80

Middlesbrough at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
02.11.24 Middlesbrough – Coventry 0–3 (0–1) 1.704.104.50 1.67 2.20
23.10.24 Middlesbrough – Sheffield United 1–0 (0–0) 2.003.603.40 1.95 1.90
19.10.24 Middlesbrough – Bristol City 0–2 (0–2) 1.703.804.75 1.80 2.00
28.09.24 Middlesbrough – Stoke 2–0 (1–0) 1.604.005.00 1.73 2.10
14.09.24 Middlesbrough – Preston 1–1 (1–1) 1.454.207.00 1.73 2.10
24.08.24 Middlesbrough – Portsmouth 2–2 (1–2) 1.454.337.00 1.73 2.10
10.08.24 Middlesbrough – Swansea 1–0 (1–0) 1.803.504.33 1.73 2.08
04.05.24 Middlesbrough – Watford 3–1 (1–0) 1.704.004.75 1.62 2.30
22.04.24 Middlesbrough – Leeds 3–4 (2–3) 4.203.801.80 1.73 2.10
06.04.24 Middlesbrough – Swansea 2–0 (1–0) 1.803.804.20 1.80 2.00

Luton away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
26.10.24 Coventry – Luton 3–2 (0–2) 2.203.403.20 1.83 2.03
05.10.24 Sheffield United – Luton 2–0 (1–0) 1.903.703.90 1.90 1.95
27.09.24 Plymouth – Luton 3–1 (1–0) 4.003.701.85 1.62 2.30
14.09.24 Millwall – Luton 0–1 (0–1) 2.633.302.63 2.00 1.80
24.08.24 Preston – Luton 1–0 (1–0) 3.203.402.20 1.98 1.88
17.08.24 Portsmouth – Luton 0–0 (0–0) 3.103.402.25 1.75 2.05
11.05.24E0 West Ham – Luton 3–1 (0–1) 1.804.203.80 1.44 2.75
27.04.24E0 Wolves – Luton 2–1 (1–0) 1.953.803.60 1.62 2.30
13.04.24E0 Man City – Luton 5–1 (1–0) 1.1011.0019.00 1.29 3.75
03.04.24E0 Arsenal – Luton 2–0 (2–0) 1.1010.0019.00 1.25 4.00

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Middlesbrough winsDrawsLuton wins
4matches
3.25goals / match
100%over 2.5
100%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
24.04.23E1 Luton – Middlesbrough 2–1 (0–1) 2.253.503.10 2.05 1.80
10.12.22E1 Middlesbrough – Luton 2–1 (1–1) 1.833.604.33 2.02 1.83
05.03.22E1 Middlesbrough – Luton 2–1 (1–0) 1.753.605.00 2.10 1.72
02.11.21E1 Luton – Middlesbrough 3–1 (0–1) 2.253.303.25 2.00 1.80

England Championship table 2024/2025, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sunderland 14 9 3 2 23 9 +14 30
2 Sheffield United 14 9 3 2 18 7 +11 30
3 Leeds 14 7 5 2 22 9 +13 26
4 Watford 15 8 1 6 23 22 +1 25
5 Burnley 14 6 6 2 17 6 +11 24
6 West Brom 14 5 7 2 14 8 +6 22
7 Millwall 14 6 4 4 17 12 +5 22
8 Middlesbrough 14 6 3 5 18 16 +2 21
9 Swansea 14 5 4 5 11 9 +2 19
10 Blackburn 14 5 4 5 16 16 0 19
11 Bristol City 14 4 7 3 18 19 -1 19
12 Norwich 14 4 6 4 23 20 +3 18
13 Derby 14 5 3 6 18 18 0 18
14 Stoke 14 5 3 6 17 18 -1 18
15 Sheffield Weds 14 5 3 6 17 24 -7 18
16 Oxford 15 4 5 6 17 18 -1 17
17 Coventry 14 4 3 7 18 19 -1 15
18 Hull 14 3 6 5 15 18 -3 15
19 Luton 14 4 3 7 16 21 -5 15
20 Preston 14 3 6 5 14 20 -6 15
21 Cardiff 14 4 3 7 13 20 -7 15
22 Plymouth 14 4 3 7 14 25 -11 15
23 QPR 14 1 7 6 12 23 -11 10
24 Portsmouth 14 1 6 7 13 27 -14 9
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Watford 7 6 1 0 12 4 +8 19
2 Leeds 7 5 1 1 15 5 +10 16
3 Sunderland 6 5 1 0 12 2 +10 16
4 Sheffield United 6 5 1 0 9 2 +7 16
5 Millwall 8 5 1 2 12 6 +6 16
6 Blackburn 8 5 1 2 12 7 +5 16
7 Oxford 8 4 3 1 10 5 +5 15
8 Plymouth 7 4 2 1 13 9 +4 14
9 Derby 6 4 1 1 10 4 +6 13
10 Burnley 6 3 3 0 9 2 +7 12
11 Swansea 7 3 3 1 7 3 +4 12
12 Cardiff 7 4 0 3 10 7 +3 12
13 Preston 8 3 3 2 8 7 +1 12
14 Stoke 7 3 2 2 14 10 +4 11
15 Luton 8 3 2 3 12 12 0 11
16 Sheffield Weds 8 3 2 3 12 13 -1 11
17 Middlesbrough 7 3 2 2 7 8 -1 11
18 Norwich 6 2 4 0 15 8 +7 10
19 Bristol City 7 2 4 1 9 8 +1 10
20 West Brom 7 2 4 1 2 1 +1 10
21 Coventry 7 3 0 4 12 11 +1 9
22 Hull 7 1 4 2 7 7 0 7
23 QPR 8 0 4 4 7 15 -8 4
24 Portsmouth 6 0 3 3 3 9 -6 3
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sunderland 8 4 2 2 11 7 +4 14
2 Sheffield United 8 4 2 2 9 5 +4 14
3 West Brom 7 3 3 1 12 7 +5 12
4 Burnley 8 3 3 2 8 4 +4 12
5 Middlesbrough 7 3 1 3 11 8 +3 10
6 Leeds 7 2 4 1 7 4 +3 10
7 Bristol City 7 2 3 2 9 11 -2 9
8 Hull 7 2 2 3 8 11 -3 8
9 Norwich 8 2 2 4 8 12 -4 8
10 Swansea 7 2 1 4 4 6 -2 7
11 Stoke 7 2 1 4 3 8 -5 7
12 Sheffield Weds 6 2 1 3 5 11 -6 7
13 Millwall 6 1 3 2 5 6 -1 6
14 Coventry 7 1 3 3 6 8 -2 6
15 QPR 6 1 3 2 5 8 -3 6
16 Watford 8 2 0 6 11 18 -7 6
17 Portsmouth 8 1 3 4 10 18 -8 6
18 Derby 8 1 2 5 8 14 -6 5
19 Luton 6 1 1 4 4 9 -5 4
20 Blackburn 6 0 3 3 4 9 -5 3
21 Preston 6 0 3 3 6 13 -7 3
22 Cardiff 7 0 3 4 3 13 -10 3
23 Oxford 7 0 2 5 7 13 -6 2
24 Plymouth 7 0 1 6 1 16 -15 1

Middlesbrough   Luton

Under / Over goals 2024/2025, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 4 Watford 15 5 10 1.5 1.5 8 1 6 23 22 25
2 15 Sheffield Weds 14 6 8 1.2 1.7 5 3 6 17 24 18
3 17 Coventry 14 6 8 1.3 1.4 4 3 7 18 19 15
4 19 Luton 14 6 8 1.1 1.5 4 3 7 16 21 15
5 24 Portsmouth 14 6 8 0.9 1.9 1 6 7 13 27 9
6 11 Bristol City 14 7 7 1.3 1.4 4 7 3 18 19 19
7 12 Norwich 14 7 7 1.6 1.4 4 6 4 23 20 18
8 20 Preston 14 7 7 1.0 1.4 3 6 5 14 20 15
9 22 Plymouth 14 7 7 1.0 1.8 4 3 7 14 25 15
10 1 Sunderland 14 8 6 1.6 0.6 9 3 2 23 9 30
11 10 Blackburn 14 8 6 1.1 1.1 5 4 5 16 16 19
12 13 Derby 14 8 6 1.3 1.3 5 3 6 18 18 18
13 14 Stoke 14 8 6 1.2 1.3 5 3 6 17 18 18
14 16 Oxford 15 9 6 1.1 1.2 4 5 6 17 18 17
15 23 QPR 14 8 6 0.9 1.6 1 7 6 12 23 10
16 3 Leeds 14 9 5 1.6 0.6 7 5 2 22 9 26
17 8 Middlesbrough 14 9 5 1.3 1.1 6 3 5 18 16 21
18 6 West Brom 14 10 4 1.0 0.6 5 7 2 14 8 22
19 7 Millwall 14 10 4 1.2 0.9 6 4 4 17 12 22
20 18 Hull 14 10 4 1.1 1.3 3 6 5 15 18 15
21 21 Cardiff 14 10 4 0.9 1.4 4 3 7 13 20 15
22 5 Burnley 14 11 3 1.2 0.4 6 6 2 17 6 24
23 9 Swansea 14 11 3 0.8 0.6 5 4 5 11 9 19
24 2 Sheffield United 14 12 2 1.3 0.5 9 3 2 18 7 30
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 17 Coventry 7 1 6 1.7 1.6 3 0 4 12 11 9
2 19 Luton 8 2 6 1.5 1.5 3 2 3 12 12 11
3 14 Stoke 7 2 5 2.0 1.4 3 2 2 14 10 11
4 3 Leeds 7 3 4 2.1 0.7 5 1 1 15 5 16
5 4 Watford 7 3 4 1.7 0.6 6 1 0 12 4 19
6 12 Norwich 6 2 4 2.5 1.3 2 4 0 15 8 10
7 22 Plymouth 7 3 4 1.9 1.3 4 2 1 13 9 14
8 23 QPR 8 4 4 0.9 1.9 0 4 4 7 15 4
9 7 Millwall 8 5 3 1.5 0.8 5 1 2 12 6 16
10 10 Blackburn 8 5 3 1.5 0.9 5 1 2 12 7 16
11 11 Bristol City 7 4 3 1.3 1.1 2 4 1 9 8 10
12 15 Sheffield Weds 8 5 3 1.5 1.6 3 2 3 12 13 11
13 20 Preston 8 5 3 1.0 0.9 3 3 2 8 7 12
14 24 Portsmouth 6 3 3 0.5 1.5 0 3 3 3 9 3
15 1 Sunderland 6 4 2 2.0 0.3 5 1 0 12 2 16
16 5 Burnley 6 4 2 1.5 0.3 3 3 0 9 2 12
17 8 Middlesbrough 7 5 2 1.0 1.1 3 2 2 7 8 11
18 13 Derby 6 4 2 1.7 0.7 4 1 1 10 4 13
19 16 Oxford 8 6 2 1.2 0.6 4 3 1 10 5 15
20 21 Cardiff 7 5 2 1.4 1.0 4 0 3 10 7 12
21 2 Sheffield United 6 5 1 1.5 0.3 5 1 0 9 2 16
22 9 Swansea 7 6 1 1.0 0.4 3 3 1 7 3 12
23 18 Hull 7 6 1 1.0 1.0 1 4 2 7 7 7
24 6 West Brom 7 7 0 0.3 0.1 2 4 1 2 1 10
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 4 Watford 8 2 6 1.4 2.2 2 0 6 11 18 6
2 15 Sheffield Weds 6 1 5 0.8 1.8 2 1 3 5 11 7
3 24 Portsmouth 8 3 5 1.2 2.2 1 3 4 10 18 6
4 1 Sunderland 8 4 4 1.4 0.9 4 2 2 11 7 14
5 6 West Brom 7 3 4 1.7 1.0 3 3 1 12 7 12
6 11 Bristol City 7 3 4 1.3 1.6 2 3 2 9 11 9
7 13 Derby 8 4 4 1.0 1.8 1 2 5 8 14 5
8 16 Oxford 7 3 4 1.0 1.9 0 2 5 7 13 2
9 20 Preston 6 2 4 1.0 2.2 0 3 3 6 13 3
10 8 Middlesbrough 7 4 3 1.6 1.1 3 1 3 11 8 10
11 10 Blackburn 6 3 3 0.7 1.5 0 3 3 4 9 3
12 12 Norwich 8 5 3 1.0 1.5 2 2 4 8 12 8
13 18 Hull 7 4 3 1.1 1.6 2 2 3 8 11 8
14 22 Plymouth 7 4 3 0.1 2.3 0 1 6 1 16 1
15 9 Swansea 7 5 2 0.6 0.9 2 1 4 4 6 7
16 17 Coventry 7 5 2 0.9 1.1 1 3 3 6 8 6
17 19 Luton 6 4 2 0.7 1.5 1 1 4 4 9 4
18 21 Cardiff 7 5 2 0.4 1.9 0 3 4 3 13 3
19 23 QPR 6 4 2 0.8 1.3 1 3 2 5 8 6
20 2 Sheffield United 8 7 1 1.1 0.6 4 2 2 9 5 14
21 3 Leeds 7 6 1 1.0 0.6 2 4 1 7 4 10
22 5 Burnley 8 7 1 1.0 0.5 3 3 2 8 4 12
23 7 Millwall 6 5 1 0.8 1.0 1 3 2 5 6 6
24 14 Stoke 7 6 1 0.4 1.1 2 1 4 3 8 7

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 05:38