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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England League One · ·Referee: W Finnie

Oxford 2–3 Derby

Full time · half time 2–1 · season 2023/2024

Home 3.25 fair 2.50
Draw 3.40 fair 3.87
Away ✓ 2.20 fair 2.93
Under 2.5 1.80 fair 2.01
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.05 fair 1.99

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Oxford Derby
9 Shots 20
6 Shots on target 5
2 Corners 19
4 Fouls 17
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (274 league matches this season so far).
Result Oxford to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.84
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28
Home / Draw / Away
OxfordDrawDerby
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 12.3% 1–0 9.6% 0–1 8.7%

Statistics 2023/2024, before this match

Oxford before this match, all matches
1.87points / match
1.65scored / match
1.09conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 23 played · 38:25
Derby before this match, all matches
1.95points / match
1.77scored / match
0.82conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 22 played · 39:18
Oxford all matches all matches Derby

Per match

1.65 Goals scored 1.77
1.09 Goals conceded 0.82
2.74 Total goals 2.59
13.39 Shots 12.59
5.30 Shots on target 4.64
10.57 Shots faced 9.77
5.78 Corners 6.45
5.09 Corners against 5.50
9.22 Fouls 11.00
1.52 Yellow cards 1.91
0.70 1st-half goals scored 0.82
0.39 1st-half goals conceded 0.36

How often Full Time

57% Wins 59%
17% Draws 18%
26% Losses 23%
96% Over 0.5 goals 95%
91% Over 1.5 goals 77%
65% Over 2.5 goals 55%
17% Over 3.5 goals 23%
4% Over 4.5 goals 5%
0% Over 5.5 goals 5%
52% Both teams scored 50%
30% Clean sheets 45%
22% Failed to score 9%

How often Half Time

52% Wins 41%
26% Draws 45%
22% Losses 14%
83% Over 0.5 goals 68%
26% Over 1.5 goals 27%
0% Over 2.5 goals 14%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Oxford all matches
Derby all matches
Oxford before this match, at home
2.18points / match
1.82scored / match
0.73conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 11 played · 20:8
Derby before this match, away
2.00points / match
1.82scored / match
0.91conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 11 played · 20:10
Oxford at home away Derby

Per match

1.82 Goals scored 1.82
0.73 Goals conceded 0.91
2.55 Total goals 2.73
14.18 Shots 11.55
5.82 Shots on target 5.00
9.64 Shots faced 11.36
5.00 Corners 5.45
3.18 Corners against 6.73
9.55 Fouls 11.18
1.55 Yellow cards 1.45
0.64 1st-half goals scored 1.00
0.09 1st-half goals conceded 0.45

How often Full Time

64% Wins 64%
27% Draws 9%
9% Losses 27%
91% Over 0.5 goals 100%
82% Over 1.5 goals 73%
73% Over 2.5 goals 55%
9% Over 3.5 goals 27%
0% Over 4.5 goals 9%
0% Over 5.5 goals 9%
55% Both teams scored 45%
45% Clean sheets 45%
9% Failed to score 9%

How often Half Time

64% Wins 45%
27% Draws 45%
9% Losses 9%
73% Over 0.5 goals 73%
0% Over 1.5 goals 36%
0% Over 2.5 goals 18%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Oxford at home
Derby away

Last 10 matches before this match

Oxford all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
26.12.23 Oxford – Cambridge 2–1 (0–1) 1.733.804.75 2.00 1.85
23.12.23 Northampton – Oxford 2–1 (0–0) 3.003.602.25 2.05 1.75
16.12.23 Oxford – Burton 3–0 (1–0) 1.603.806.00 1.98 1.88
12.12.23 Reading – Oxford 1–1 (1–1) 2.883.502.45 1.93 1.93
09.12.23 Peterboro – Oxford 3–0 (2–0) 1.913.604.00 1.93 1.93
28.11.23 Oxford – Bolton 0–0 (0–0) 2.633.502.60 1.85 2.00
25.11.23 Cheltenham – Oxford 2–0 (1–0) 4.503.901.73 1.88 1.98
11.11.23 Leyton Orient – Oxford 2–3 (0–2) 2.703.402.55 1.95 1.90
31.10.23 Lincoln – Oxford 0–2 (0–1) 3.603.402.10 2.10 1.70
28.10.23 Oxford – Wycombe 2–2 (1–0) 1.913.404.20 1.85 2.00

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
26.12.23 Wigan – Derby 0–1 (0–1) 4.753.751.75 1.93 1.93
21.12.23 Derby – Lincoln 3–1 (1–1) 1.504.336.00 2.03 1.83
16.12.23 Derby – Wycombe 1–1 (0–0) 1.504.207.00 1.90 1.95
09.12.23 Leyton Orient – Derby 0–3 (0–1) 3.603.502.05 2.10 1.70
28.11.23 Port Vale – Derby 0–1 (0–0) 3.753.601.95 2.00 1.85
25.11.23 Derby – Bristol Rvs 2–1 (0–0) 1.604.005.25 1.75 2.05
11.11.23 Derby – Barnsley 3–0 (1–0) 1.803.604.50 1.80 2.05
31.10.23 Derby – Northampton 4–0 (3–0) 1.553.806.50 1.85 2.00
28.10.23 Stevenage – Derby 3–1 (2–1) 2.503.302.80 2.08 1.73
24.10.23 Derby – Exeter 2–0 (1–0) 1.574.005.75 1.85 2.00

Oxford at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
26.12.23 Oxford – Cambridge 2–1 (0–1) 1.733.804.75 2.00 1.85
16.12.23 Oxford – Burton 3–0 (1–0) 1.603.806.00 1.98 1.88
28.11.23 Oxford – Bolton 0–0 (0–0) 2.633.502.60 1.85 2.00
28.10.23 Oxford – Wycombe 2–2 (1–0) 1.913.404.20 1.85 2.00
21.10.23 Oxford – Blackpool 1–1 (1–0) 1.913.504.20 1.90 1.95
07.10.23 Oxford – Bristol Rvs 2–1 (1–0) 1.833.804.00 1.75 2.05
03.10.23 Oxford – Shrewsbury 3–0 (1–0) 1.573.806.50 1.93 1.93
23.09.23 Oxford – Exeter 3–0 (1–0) 1.833.804.00 1.85 2.00
02.09.23 Oxford – Port Vale 1–2 (0–0) 1.753.754.75 1.93 1.93
26.08.23 Oxford – Charlton 2–1 (1–0) 1.913.604.00 1.83 2.03

Derby away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
26.12.23 Wigan – Derby 0–1 (0–1) 4.753.751.75 1.93 1.93
09.12.23 Leyton Orient – Derby 0–3 (0–1) 3.603.502.05 2.10 1.70
28.11.23 Port Vale – Derby 0–1 (0–0) 3.753.601.95 2.00 1.85
28.10.23 Stevenage – Derby 3–1 (2–1) 2.503.302.80 2.08 1.73
21.10.23 Shrewsbury – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 4.333.401.85 2.05 1.80
07.10.23 Cheltenham – Derby 1–1 (1–1) 7.004.001.50 1.88 1.98
03.10.23 Blackpool – Derby 1–3 (0–0) 2.303.253.20 2.05 1.80
23.09.23 Carlisle – Derby 0–2 (0–1) 3.403.602.10 1.93 1.93
02.09.23 Bolton – Derby 2–1 (1–1) 2.203.403.30 2.00 1.85
26.08.23 Peterboro – Derby 2–4 (1–4) 2.503.402.80 1.93 1.93

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Oxford winsDrawsDerby wins
3matches
3.00goals / match
67%over 2.5
67%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
15.08.23E2 Derby – Oxford 1–2 (0–1) 1.913.604.00 2.05 1.75
11.03.23E2 Oxford – Derby 2–3 (1–2) 3.603.502.00 1.98 1.88
30.07.22E2 Derby – Oxford 1–0 (0–0) 2.203.403.30 1.93 1.93

England League One table 2023/2024, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Portsmouth 23 14 7 2 39 19 +20 49
2 Peterboro 23 13 6 4 45 23 +22 45
3 Bolton 22 14 3 5 42 24 +18 45
4 Derby 22 13 4 5 39 18 +21 43
5 Oxford 23 13 4 6 38 25 +13 43
6 Stevenage 24 12 7 5 36 23 +13 43
7 Barnsley 22 12 5 5 43 25 +18 41
8 Blackpool 24 10 6 8 40 29 +11 36
9 Wigan 24 10 4 10 34 29 +5 34
10 Lincoln 24 8 8 8 28 25 +3 32
11 Bristol Rvs 22 8 7 7 30 29 +1 31
12 Northampton 23 9 3 11 28 32 -4 30
13 Charlton 22 7 8 7 34 30 +4 29
14 Leyton Orient 23 7 7 9 23 31 -8 28
15 Cambridge 23 7 6 10 21 30 -9 27
16 Shrewsbury 24 8 3 13 14 34 -20 27
17 Port Vale 22 7 5 10 21 33 -12 26
18 Wycombe 22 6 6 10 25 31 -6 24
19 Burton 23 6 6 11 19 33 -14 24
20 Reading 23 6 5 12 29 37 -8 23
21 Exeter 22 6 4 12 14 33 -19 22
22 Cheltenham 22 5 4 13 15 30 -15 19
23 Fleetwood Town 22 4 6 12 20 37 -17 18
24 Carlisle 24 3 8 13 18 35 -17 17
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Blackpool 13 8 2 3 28 14 +14 26
2 Bolton 12 8 1 3 27 17 +10 25
3 Portsmouth 12 7 4 1 17 11 +6 25
4 Peterboro 11 7 3 1 27 9 +18 24
5 Oxford 11 7 3 1 20 8 +12 24
6 Wigan 12 7 1 4 18 11 +7 22
7 Derby 11 6 3 2 19 8 +11 21
8 Charlton 12 6 3 3 24 16 +8 21
9 Stevenage 12 5 6 1 17 10 +7 21
10 Cambridge 12 6 3 3 13 12 +1 21
11 Northampton 12 6 2 4 18 14 +4 20
12 Shrewsbury 12 6 1 5 11 14 -3 19
13 Reading 12 5 3 4 18 13 +5 18
14 Barnsley 11 5 2 4 22 14 +8 17
15 Bristol Rvs 10 4 5 1 17 10 +7 17
16 Lincoln 11 4 4 3 16 10 +6 16
17 Burton 11 4 3 4 12 13 -1 15
18 Leyton Orient 11 4 2 5 10 17 -7 14
19 Port Vale 10 4 0 6 11 13 -2 12
20 Wycombe 11 3 3 5 11 14 -3 12
21 Exeter 11 3 3 5 6 10 -4 12
22 Carlisle 12 2 5 5 10 14 -4 11
23 Cheltenham 11 3 2 6 8 15 -7 11
24 Fleetwood Town 11 2 2 7 9 19 -10 8
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Portsmouth 11 7 3 1 22 8 +14 24
2 Barnsley 11 7 3 1 21 11 +10 24
3 Derby 11 7 1 3 20 10 +10 22
4 Stevenage 12 7 1 4 19 13 +6 22
5 Peterboro 12 6 3 3 18 14 +4 21
6 Bolton 10 6 2 2 15 7 +8 20
7 Oxford 12 6 1 5 18 17 +1 19
8 Lincoln 13 4 4 5 12 15 -3 16
9 Leyton Orient 12 3 5 4 13 14 -1 14
10 Bristol Rvs 12 4 2 6 13 19 -6 14
11 Port Vale 12 3 5 4 10 20 -10 14
12 Wigan 12 3 3 6 16 18 -2 12
13 Wycombe 11 3 3 5 14 17 -3 12
14 Blackpool 11 2 4 5 12 15 -3 10
15 Fleetwood Town 11 2 4 5 11 18 -7 10
16 Northampton 11 3 1 7 10 18 -8 10
17 Exeter 11 3 1 7 8 23 -15 10
18 Burton 12 2 3 7 7 20 -13 9
19 Charlton 10 1 5 4 10 14 -4 8
20 Cheltenham 11 2 2 7 7 15 -8 8
21 Shrewsbury 12 2 2 8 3 20 -17 8
22 Cambridge 11 1 3 7 8 18 -10 6
23 Carlisle 12 1 3 8 8 21 -13 6
24 Reading 11 1 2 8 11 24 -13 5

Oxford   Derby

Under / Over goals 2023/2024, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Oxford 23 8 15 1.7 1.1 13 4 6 38 25 43
2 8 Blackpool 24 9 15 1.7 1.2 10 6 8 40 29 36
3 12 Northampton 23 8 15 1.2 1.4 9 3 11 28 32 30
4 2 Peterboro 23 10 13 2.0 1.0 13 6 4 45 23 45
5 3 Bolton 22 9 13 1.9 1.1 14 3 5 42 24 45
6 6 Stevenage 24 11 13 1.5 1.0 12 7 5 36 23 43
7 7 Barnsley 22 9 13 2.0 1.1 12 5 5 43 25 41
8 13 Charlton 22 9 13 1.5 1.4 7 8 7 34 30 29
9 20 Reading 23 10 13 1.3 1.6 6 5 12 29 37 23
10 1 Portsmouth 23 11 12 1.7 0.8 14 7 2 39 19 49
11 4 Derby 22 10 12 1.8 0.8 13 4 5 39 18 43
12 9 Wigan 24 12 12 1.4 1.2 10 4 10 34 29 34
13 11 Bristol Rvs 22 11 11 1.4 1.3 8 7 7 30 29 31
14 18 Wycombe 22 11 11 1.1 1.4 6 6 10 25 31 24
15 23 Fleetwood Town 22 11 11 0.9 1.7 4 6 12 20 37 18
16 14 Leyton Orient 23 13 10 1.0 1.3 7 7 9 23 31 28
17 15 Cambridge 23 13 10 0.9 1.3 7 6 10 21 30 27
18 19 Burton 23 13 10 0.8 1.4 6 6 11 19 33 24
19 10 Lincoln 24 15 9 1.2 1.0 8 8 8 28 25 32
20 17 Port Vale 22 13 9 1.0 1.5 7 5 10 21 33 26
21 16 Shrewsbury 24 16 8 0.6 1.4 8 3 13 14 34 27
22 21 Exeter 22 15 7 0.6 1.5 6 4 12 14 33 22
23 22 Cheltenham 22 15 7 0.7 1.4 5 4 13 15 30 19
24 24 Carlisle 24 18 6 0.8 1.5 3 8 13 18 35 17
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 3 Bolton 12 2 10 2.2 1.4 8 1 3 27 17 25
2 8 Blackpool 13 3 10 2.2 1.1 8 2 3 28 14 26
3 13 Charlton 12 3 9 2.0 1.3 6 3 3 24 16 21
4 5 Oxford 11 3 8 1.8 0.7 7 3 1 20 8 24
5 12 Northampton 12 4 8 1.5 1.2 6 2 4 18 14 20
6 2 Peterboro 11 4 7 2.5 0.8 7 3 1 27 9 24
7 7 Barnsley 11 4 7 2.0 1.3 5 2 4 22 14 17
8 4 Derby 11 5 6 1.7 0.7 6 3 2 19 8 21
9 9 Wigan 12 6 6 1.5 0.9 7 1 4 18 11 22
10 1 Portsmouth 12 7 5 1.4 0.9 7 4 1 17 11 25
11 6 Stevenage 12 7 5 1.4 0.8 5 6 1 17 10 21
12 11 Bristol Rvs 10 5 5 1.7 1.0 4 5 1 17 10 17
13 14 Leyton Orient 11 6 5 0.9 1.5 4 2 5 10 17 14
14 16 Shrewsbury 12 7 5 0.9 1.2 6 1 5 11 14 19
15 19 Burton 11 6 5 1.1 1.2 4 3 4 12 13 15
16 20 Reading 12 7 5 1.5 1.1 5 3 4 18 13 18
17 23 Fleetwood Town 11 6 5 0.8 1.7 2 2 7 9 19 8
18 10 Lincoln 11 7 4 1.5 0.9 4 4 3 16 10 16
19 15 Cambridge 12 8 4 1.1 1.0 6 3 3 13 12 21
20 17 Port Vale 10 6 4 1.1 1.3 4 0 6 11 13 12
21 18 Wycombe 11 7 4 1.0 1.3 3 3 5 11 14 12
22 22 Cheltenham 11 8 3 0.7 1.4 3 2 6 8 15 11
23 21 Exeter 11 9 2 0.5 0.9 3 3 5 6 10 12
24 24 Carlisle 12 10 2 0.8 1.2 2 5 5 10 14 11
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 6 Stevenage 12 4 8 1.6 1.1 7 1 4 19 13 22
2 20 Reading 11 3 8 1.0 2.2 1 2 8 11 24 5
3 1 Portsmouth 11 4 7 2.0 0.7 7 3 1 22 8 24
4 5 Oxford 12 5 7 1.5 1.4 6 1 5 18 17 19
5 12 Northampton 11 4 7 0.9 1.6 3 1 7 10 18 10
6 18 Wycombe 11 4 7 1.3 1.5 3 3 5 14 17 12
7 2 Peterboro 12 6 6 1.5 1.2 6 3 3 18 14 21
8 4 Derby 11 5 6 1.8 0.9 7 1 3 20 10 22
9 7 Barnsley 11 5 6 1.9 1.0 7 3 1 21 11 24
10 9 Wigan 12 6 6 1.3 1.5 3 3 6 16 18 12
11 11 Bristol Rvs 12 6 6 1.1 1.6 4 2 6 13 19 14
12 15 Cambridge 11 5 6 0.7 1.6 1 3 7 8 18 6
13 23 Fleetwood Town 11 5 6 1.0 1.6 2 4 5 11 18 10
14 8 Blackpool 11 6 5 1.1 1.4 2 4 5 12 15 10
15 10 Lincoln 13 8 5 0.9 1.2 4 4 5 12 15 16
16 14 Leyton Orient 12 7 5 1.1 1.2 3 5 4 13 14 14
17 17 Port Vale 12 7 5 0.8 1.7 3 5 4 10 20 14
18 19 Burton 12 7 5 0.6 1.7 2 3 7 7 20 9
19 21 Exeter 11 6 5 0.7 2.1 3 1 7 8 23 10
20 13 Charlton 10 6 4 1.0 1.4 1 5 4 10 14 8
21 22 Cheltenham 11 7 4 0.6 1.4 2 2 7 7 15 8
22 24 Carlisle 12 8 4 0.7 1.8 1 3 8 8 21 6
23 3 Bolton 10 7 3 1.5 0.7 6 2 2 15 7 20
24 16 Shrewsbury 12 9 3 0.2 1.7 2 2 8 3 20 8

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51