Millwall 1–0 Derby – England Championship, 10 Mar 2026

Match facts

Millwall Derby

15 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 1

6 Corners 2

7 Fouls 13

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (429 league matches this season so far).

Result Millwall to win

Goals Over 2.5

Both teams score Yes fair 1.75

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.33

Home / Draw / Away

41% 25% 34%

MillwallDrawDerby

Under / Over 2.5 goals

46% 54%

Under 2.5Over 2.5

Both teams to score

43% 57%

NoYes

Total goals in the match

6% 0

17% 1

24% 2

22% 3

16% 4

16% 5+

Most likely scores

1–1 11.8% 1–0 8.9% 2–1 8.8%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Millwall before this match, all matches

1.81points / match

1.39scored / match

1.14conceded / match

19 8 9

WonDrawnLost 36 played · 50:41

Derby before this match, all matches

1.50points / match

1.50scored / match

1.31conceded / match

15 9 12

WonDrawnLost 36 played · 54:47

Millwall all matches all matches Derby

Per match

1.39 Goals scored 1.50

1.14 Goals conceded 1.31

2.53 Total goals 2.81

12.75 Shots 10.33

4.19 Shots on target 3.47

12.22 Shots faced 12.31

5.39 Corners 4.64

5.00 Corners against 5.39

13.31 Fouls 11.97

1.97 Yellow cards 2.19

0.56 1st-half goals scored 0.69

0.42 1st-half goals conceded 0.58

How often Full Time

53% Wins 42%

22% Draws 25%

25% Losses 33%

94% Over 0.5 goals 100%

81% Over 1.5 goals 81%

50% Over 2.5 goals 53%

25% Over 3.5 goals 25%

3% Over 4.5 goals 11%

0% Over 5.5 goals 6%

47% Both teams scored 69%

39% Clean sheets 22%

19% Failed to score 8%

How often Half Time

31% Wins 36%

53% Draws 36%

17% Losses 28%

64% Over 0.5 goals 78%

33% Over 1.5 goals 28%

0% Over 2.5 goals 17%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Millwall all matches

2

W

1

2

L

4

W

1

D

2

W

2

1

W

1

3

L

3

W

2

W

3

1

W

Derby all matches

1

W

2

1

W

1

D

5

W

1

2

L

2

W

2

L

2

4

L

3

1

W

2

1

W

Millwall before this match, at home

1.83points / match

1.44scored / match

1.17conceded / match

10 3 5

WonDrawnLost 18 played · 26:21

Derby before this match, away

1.59points / match

1.65scored / match

1.29conceded / match

8 3 6

WonDrawnLost 17 played · 28:22

Millwall at home away Derby

Per match

1.44 Goals scored 1.65

1.17 Goals conceded 1.29

2.61 Total goals 2.94

13.83 Shots 9.82

4.72 Shots on target 3.29

10.78 Shots faced 13.18

5.89 Corners 3.76

4.89 Corners against 6.18

11.72 Fouls 12.65

1.50 Yellow cards 2.41

0.67 1st-half goals scored 0.82

0.28 1st-half goals conceded 0.41

How often Full Time

56% Wins 47%

17% Draws 18%

28% Losses 35%

94% Over 0.5 goals 100%

78% Over 1.5 goals 82%

56% Over 2.5 goals 65%

28% Over 3.5 goals 29%

6% Over 4.5 goals 12%

0% Over 5.5 goals 6%

39% Both teams scored 65%

44% Clean sheets 24%

22% Failed to score 12%

How often Half Time

44% Wins 47%

44% Draws 29%

11% Losses 24%

67% Over 0.5 goals 76%

28% Over 1.5 goals 24%

0% Over 2.5 goals 18%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Millwall at home

1

W

3

2

W

1

3

L

D

2

1

W

2

1

W

4

W

1

D

1

3

L

3

W

Derby away

2

1

W

1

2

L

3

W

1

D

1

2

L

1

W

2

1

W

5

W

2

L

2

4

L

Last 10 matches before this match

Millwall all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
07.03.26	Hull – Millwall	1–3 (1–1)	3.10	3.30	2.25	2.00	1.80
28.02.26	Preston – Millwall	0–2 (0–1)	3.10	3.50	2.20	2.10	1.73
25.02.26	Millwall – Birmingham	3–0 (2–0)	2.40	3.30	2.82	2.10	1.73
21.02.26	Millwall – Portsmouth	1–3 (0–0)	1.81	3.50	4.20	2.10	1.73
14.02.26	Sheffield Weds – Millwall	1–2 (0–0)	9.00	4.33	1.35	1.88	1.98
07.02.26	Wrexham – Millwall	0–2 (0–0)	2.50	3.30	2.70	2.10	1.73
31.01.26	Millwall – Sheffield United	1–1 (1–1)	2.45	3.25	2.75	1.98	1.88
24.01.26	Millwall – Charlton	4–0 (1–0)	1.71	3.50	4.75	2.20	1.67
20.01.26	Coventry – Millwall	2–1 (1–1)	1.76	3.50	4.33	1.88	1.98
17.01.26	Watford – Millwall	0–2 (0–0)	2.01	3.30	3.60	2.10	1.73

Derby all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
07.03.26	Derby – Sheffield Weds	2–1 (2–1)	1.24	5.25	12.00	1.73	2.10
28.02.26	Derby – Blackburn	3–1 (0–1)	2.10	3.30	3.30	2.20	1.67
24.02.26	Hull – Derby	4–2 (2–2)	2.55	3.20	2.70	2.10	1.73
21.02.26	Watford – Derby	2–0 (1–0)	2.10	3.30	3.40	2.20	1.67
14.02.26	Derby – Swansea	2–0 (0–0)	2.10	3.20	3.30	2.20	1.67
07.02.26	Derby – Ipswich	1–2 (0–1)	3.60	3.40	2.01	2.10	1.73
30.01.26	Bristol City – Derby	0–5 (0–3)	2.15	3.30	3.30	2.10	1.73
23.01.26	Derby – West Brom	1–1 (1–0)	2.55	3.10	2.75	2.38	1.57
20.01.26	Charlton – Derby	1–2 (0–1)	2.65	3.00	2.75	2.50	1.53
17.01.26	Preston – Derby	0–1 (0–0)	2.20	3.10	3.40	2.38	1.57

Millwall at home

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
25.02.26	Millwall – Birmingham	3–0 (2–0)	2.40	3.30	2.82	2.10	1.73
21.02.26	Millwall – Portsmouth	1–3 (0–0)	1.81	3.50	4.20	2.10	1.73
31.01.26	Millwall – Sheffield United	1–1 (1–1)	2.45	3.25	2.75	1.98	1.88
24.01.26	Millwall – Charlton	4–0 (1–0)	1.71	3.50	4.75	2.20	1.67
04.01.26	Millwall – Swansea	2–1 (1–0)	2.05	3.25	3.60	2.20	1.67
29.12.25	Millwall – Bristol City	2–1 (1–0)	2.32	3.25	2.95	2.00	1.80
26.12.25	Millwall – Ipswich	0–0 (0–0)	3.60	3.40	2.01	2.10	1.73
13.12.25	Millwall – Hull	1–3 (0–2)	1.91	3.50	3.70	1.91	1.91
29.11.25	Millwall – Southampton	3–2 (0–0)	3.05	3.60	2.20	1.98	1.88
26.11.25	Millwall – Sheffield Weds	1–0 (0–0)	1.62	3.70	5.25	2.05	1.80

Derby away

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
24.02.26	Hull – Derby	4–2 (2–2)	2.55	3.20	2.70	2.10	1.73
21.02.26	Watford – Derby	2–0 (1–0)	2.10	3.30	3.40	2.20	1.67
30.01.26	Bristol City – Derby	0–5 (0–3)	2.15	3.30	3.30	2.10	1.73
20.01.26	Charlton – Derby	1–2 (0–1)	2.65	3.00	2.75	2.50	1.53
17.01.26	Preston – Derby	0–1 (0–0)	2.20	3.10	3.40	2.38	1.57
29.12.25	Leicester – Derby	2–1 (2–1)	2.05	3.25	3.50	2.20	1.67
26.12.25	Birmingham – Derby	1–1 (0–1)	1.86	3.40	4.20	2.10	1.73
15.12.25	Sheffield Weds – Derby	0–3 (0–1)	3.20	3.20	2.20	2.10	1.73
29.11.25	Middlesbrough – Derby	2–1 (0–1)	1.71	3.60	5.00	2.20	1.67
25.11.25	Swansea – Derby	1–2 (0–1)	2.10	3.05	3.60	2.50	1.53

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

2 3

Millwall winsDrawsDerby wins

5matches

2.00goals / match

20%over 2.5

80%both scored

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
10.12.25E1	Derby – Millwall	1–1 (0–0)	2.50	2.95	2.95	2.50	1.53
22.02.25E1	Derby – Millwall	0–1 (0–0)	2.50	2.90	3.25	3.00	1.40
19.10.24E1	Millwall – Derby	1–1 (0–0)	1.95	3.20	4.10	2.30	1.62
23.02.22E1	Derby – Millwall	1–2 (0–2)	2.62	3.10	2.87	2.62	1.50
06.11.21E1	Millwall – Derby	1–1 (1–1)	1.83	3.40	4.75	2.37	1.57

England Championship table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Coventry	36	22	8	6	74	38	+36	74
2	Middlesbrough	36	20	9	7	58	35	+23	69
3	Millwall	36	19	8	9	50	41	+9	65
4	Ipswich	35	18	10	7	61	35	+26	64
5	Hull	36	18	6	12	57	52	+5	60
6	Wrexham	35	15	12	8	54	45	+9	57
7	Derby	36	15	9	12	54	47	+7	54
8	Southampton	35	14	11	10	57	46	+11	53
9	Watford	35	13	12	10	45	41	+4	51
10	Bristol City	36	14	8	14	48	46	+2	50
11	Sheffield United	36	15	4	17	51	49	+2	49
12	Birmingham	36	13	10	13	46	47	-1	49
13	Preston	36	12	13	11	42	43	-1	49
14	Swansea	36	14	7	15	42	43	-1	49
15	Stoke	36	13	8	15	39	36	+3	47
16	QPR	36	13	8	15	46	58	-12	47
17	Norwich	35	13	6	16	47	44	+3	45
18	Charlton	36	11	11	14	34	44	-10	44
19	Leicester	36	10	11	15	48	57	-9	41
20	Portsmouth	35	10	10	15	35	45	-10	40
21	Blackburn	36	10	9	17	34	47	-13	39
22	West Brom	36	9	9	18	35	53	-18	36
23	Oxford	36	8	11	17	34	48	-14	35
24	Sheffield Weds	36	1	8	27	22	73	-51	11

Home – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Coventry	17	13	3	1	36	13	+23	42
2	Ipswich	19	12	6	1	35	13	+22	42
3	Middlesbrough	17	10	5	2	26	12	+14	35
4	Swansea	19	10	5	4	28	19	+9	35
5	Millwall	18	10	3	5	26	21	+5	33
6	Watford	18	9	5	4	26	19	+7	32
7	Birmingham	17	8	7	2	31	18	+13	31
8	Southampton	17	8	6	3	26	14	+12	30
9	Wrexham	18	8	6	4	33	28	+5	30
10	Hull	19	9	3	7	29	31	-2	30
11	Charlton	18	8	4	6	18	18	0	28
12	Sheffield United	18	8	3	7	29	21	+8	27
13	Derby	19	7	6	6	26	25	+1	27
14	Preston	19	7	6	6	23	23	0	27
15	QPR	18	8	2	8	29	30	-1	26
16	Stoke	17	7	4	6	23	17	+6	25
17	Bristol City	19	7	4	8	28	26	+2	25
18	West Brom	17	6	6	5	19	22	-3	24
19	Portsmouth	17	6	4	7	18	17	+1	22
20	Leicester	17	6	4	7	23	25	-2	22
21	Norwich	17	6	1	10	19	22	-3	19
22	Blackburn	19	4	6	9	18	25	-7	18
23	Oxford	17	4	6	7	15	23	-8	18
24	Sheffield Weds	18	0	4	14	9	38	-29	4

Away – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	19	10	4	5	32	23	+9	34
2	Coventry	19	9	5	5	38	25	+13	32
3	Millwall	18	9	5	4	24	20	+4	32
4	Hull	17	9	3	5	28	21	+7	30
5	Derby	17	8	3	6	28	22	+6	27
6	Wrexham	17	7	6	4	21	17	+4	27
7	Norwich	18	7	5	6	28	22	+6	26
8	Bristol City	17	7	4	6	20	20	0	25
9	Southampton	18	6	5	7	31	32	-1	23
10	Ipswich	16	6	4	6	26	22	+4	22
11	Preston	17	5	7	5	19	20	-1	22
12	Stoke	19	6	4	9	16	19	-3	22
13	Sheffield United	18	7	1	10	22	28	-6	22
14	Blackburn	17	6	3	8	16	22	-6	21
15	QPR	18	5	6	7	17	28	-11	21
16	Watford	17	4	7	6	19	22	-3	19
17	Leicester	19	4	7	8	25	32	-7	19
18	Portsmouth	18	4	6	8	17	28	-11	18
19	Birmingham	19	5	3	11	15	29	-14	18
20	Oxford	19	4	5	10	19	25	-6	17
21	Charlton	18	3	7	8	16	26	-10	16
22	Swansea	17	4	2	11	14	24	-10	14
23	West Brom	19	3	3	13	16	31	-15	12
24	Sheffield Weds	18	1	4	13	13	35	-22	7

Millwall Derby

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1	5	Hull	36	13	23	1.6	1.4	18	6	12	57	52	60
2	16	QPR	36	13	23	1.3	1.6	13	8	15	46	58	47
3	1	Coventry	36	14	22	2.1	1.1	22	8	6	74	38	74
4	19	Leicester	36	14	22	1.3	1.6	10	11	15	48	57	41
5	8	Southampton	35	14	21	1.6	1.3	14	11	10	57	46	53
6	24	Sheffield Weds	36	15	21	0.6	2.0	1	8	27	22	73	11
7	2	Middlesbrough	36	16	20	1.6	1.0	20	9	7	58	35	69
8	11	Sheffield United	36	16	20	1.4	1.4	15	4	17	51	49	49
9	7	Derby	36	17	19	1.5	1.3	15	9	12	54	47	54
10	23	Oxford	36	17	19	0.9	1.3	8	11	17	34	48	35
11	3	Millwall	36	18	18	1.4	1.1	19	8	9	50	41	65
12	4	Ipswich	35	17	18	1.7	1.0	18	10	7	61	35	64
13	12	Birmingham	36	18	18	1.3	1.3	13	10	13	46	47	49
14	10	Bristol City	36	19	17	1.3	1.3	14	8	14	48	46	50
15	17	Norwich	35	18	17	1.3	1.3	13	6	16	47	44	45
16	22	West Brom	36	19	17	1.0	1.5	9	9	18	35	53	36
17	6	Wrexham	35	19	16	1.5	1.3	15	12	8	54	45	57
18	9	Watford	35	19	16	1.3	1.2	13	12	10	45	41	51
19	14	Swansea	36	20	16	1.2	1.2	14	7	15	42	43	49
20	13	Preston	36	21	15	1.2	1.2	12	13	11	42	43	49
21	15	Stoke	36	21	15	1.1	1.0	13	8	15	39	36	47
22	20	Portsmouth	35	20	15	1.0	1.3	10	10	15	35	45	40
23	21	Blackburn	36	21	15	0.9	1.3	10	9	17	34	47	39
24	18	Charlton	36	23	13	0.9	1.2	11	11	14	34	44	44

Home – Under/Over goals
#
1	16	QPR	18	4	14	1.6	1.7	8	2	8	29	30	26
2	5	Hull	19	7	12	1.5	1.6	9	3	7	29	31	30
3	11	Sheffield United	18	6	12	1.6	1.2	8	3	7	29	21	27
4	1	Coventry	17	7	10	2.1	0.8	13	3	1	36	13	42
5	3	Millwall	18	8	10	1.4	1.2	10	3	5	26	21	33
6	4	Ipswich	19	9	10	1.8	0.7	12	6	1	35	13	42
7	6	Wrexham	18	8	10	1.8	1.6	8	6	4	33	28	30
8	10	Bristol City	19	9	10	1.5	1.4	7	4	8	28	26	25
9	24	Sheffield Weds	18	8	10	0.5	2.1	0	4	14	9	38	4
10	12	Birmingham	17	8	9	1.8	1.1	8	7	2	31	18	31
11	13	Preston	19	10	9	1.2	1.2	7	6	6	23	23	27
12	15	Stoke	17	8	9	1.4	1.0	7	4	6	23	17	25
13	19	Leicester	17	8	9	1.4	1.5	6	4	7	23	25	22
14	23	Oxford	17	8	9	0.9	1.4	4	6	7	15	23	18
15	2	Middlesbrough	17	9	8	1.5	0.7	10	5	2	26	12	35
16	7	Derby	19	11	8	1.4	1.3	7	6	6	26	25	27
17	8	Southampton	17	9	8	1.5	0.8	8	6	3	26	14	30
18	9	Watford	18	10	8	1.4	1.1	9	5	4	26	19	32
19	14	Swansea	19	11	8	1.5	1.0	10	5	4	28	19	35
20	17	Norwich	17	9	8	1.1	1.3	6	1	10	19	22	19
21	20	Portsmouth	17	10	7	1.1	1.0	6	4	7	18	17	22
22	21	Blackburn	19	12	7	0.9	1.3	4	6	9	18	25	18
23	22	West Brom	17	10	7	1.1	1.3	6	6	5	19	22	24
24	18	Charlton	18	12	6	1.0	1.0	8	4	6	18	18	28

Away – Under/Over goals
#
1	8	Southampton	18	5	13	1.7	1.8	6	5	7	31	32	23
2	19	Leicester	19	6	13	1.3	1.7	4	7	8	25	32	19
3	1	Coventry	19	7	12	2.0	1.3	9	5	5	38	25	32
4	2	Middlesbrough	19	7	12	1.7	1.2	10	4	5	32	23	34
5	5	Hull	17	6	11	1.6	1.2	9	3	5	28	21	30
6	7	Derby	17	6	11	1.6	1.3	8	3	6	28	22	27
7	24	Sheffield Weds	18	7	11	0.7	1.9	1	4	13	13	35	7
8	22	West Brom	19	9	10	0.8	1.6	3	3	13	16	31	12
9	23	Oxford	19	9	10	1.0	1.3	4	5	10	19	25	17
10	12	Birmingham	19	10	9	0.8	1.5	5	3	11	15	29	18
11	16	QPR	18	9	9	0.9	1.6	5	6	7	17	28	21
12	17	Norwich	18	9	9	1.6	1.2	7	5	6	28	22	26
13	3	Millwall	18	10	8	1.3	1.1	9	5	4	24	20	32
14	4	Ipswich	16	8	8	1.6	1.4	6	4	6	26	22	22
15	9	Watford	17	9	8	1.1	1.3	4	7	6	19	22	19
16	11	Sheffield United	18	10	8	1.2	1.6	7	1	10	22	28	22
17	14	Swansea	17	9	8	0.8	1.4	4	2	11	14	24	14
18	20	Portsmouth	18	10	8	0.9	1.6	4	6	8	17	28	18
19	21	Blackburn	17	9	8	0.9	1.3	6	3	8	16	22	21
20	10	Bristol City	17	10	7	1.2	1.2	7	4	6	20	20	25
21	18	Charlton	18	11	7	0.9	1.4	3	7	8	16	26	16
22	6	Wrexham	17	11	6	1.2	1.0	7	6	4	21	17	27
23	13	Preston	17	11	6	1.1	1.2	5	7	5	19	20	22
24	15	Stoke	19	13	6	0.8	1.0	6	4	9	16	19	22

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.