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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
Italy Serie A ·

Milan 3–1 Roma

Full time · half time 1–0 · season 2023/2024

Home ✓ 2.20 fair 1.99
Draw 3.20 fair 4.08
Away 3.50 fair 3.96
Under 2.5 1.67 fair 2.06
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.15 fair 1.95

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Milan Roma
17 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 5
2 Corners 5
12 Fouls 9
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (197 league matches this season so far).
Result Milan to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.87
Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09
Home / Draw / Away
MilanDrawRoma
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.7% 1–0 10.7% 2–1 9.6%

Statistics 2023/2024, before this match

Milan before this match, all matches
2.05points / match
1.84scored / match
1.05conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 19 played · 35:20
Roma before this match, all matches
1.53points / match
1.63scored / match
1.11conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 19 played · 31:21
Milan all matches all matches Roma

Per match

1.84 Goals scored 1.63
1.05 Goals conceded 1.11
2.89 Total goals 2.74
13.26 Shots 12.58
5.05 Shots on target 4.00
14.63 Shots faced 9.79
4.53 Corners 4.89
4.47 Corners against 3.26
11.26 Fouls 12.74
2.37 Yellow cards 2.58
1.11 1st-half goals scored 0.58
0.32 1st-half goals conceded 0.47

How often Full Time

63% Wins 42%
16% Draws 26%
21% Losses 32%
100% Over 0.5 goals 95%
68% Over 1.5 goals 79%
58% Over 2.5 goals 47%
42% Over 3.5 goals 26%
16% Over 4.5 goals 16%
5% Over 5.5 goals 5%
47% Both teams scored 58%
42% Clean sheets 26%
11% Failed to score 21%

How often Half Time

58% Wins 26%
37% Draws 47%
5% Losses 26%
74% Over 0.5 goals 63%
53% Over 1.5 goals 32%
11% Over 2.5 goals 11%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Milan all matches
Roma all matches
Milan before this match, at home
2.33points / match
1.67scored / match
0.44conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 9 played · 15:4
Roma before this match, away
0.89points / match
1.00scored / match
1.44conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 9 played · 9:13
Milan at home away Roma

Per match

1.67 Goals scored 1.00
0.44 Goals conceded 1.44
2.11 Total goals 2.44
13.00 Shots 11.44
4.89 Shots on target 3.56
13.89 Shots faced 10.78
5.22 Corners 4.56
4.56 Corners against 3.11
11.33 Fouls 11.67
1.56 Yellow cards 2.78
0.89 1st-half goals scored 0.33
0.11 1st-half goals conceded 0.67

How often Full Time

78% Wins 22%
0% Draws 22%
22% Losses 56%
100% Over 0.5 goals 89%
44% Over 1.5 goals 67%
33% Over 2.5 goals 44%
22% Over 3.5 goals 22%
11% Over 4.5 goals 22%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
22% Both teams scored 56%
56% Clean sheets 11%
22% Failed to score 44%

How often Half Time

56% Wins 11%
44% Draws 44%
0% Losses 44%
56% Over 0.5 goals 56%
22% Over 1.5 goals 33%
11% Over 2.5 goals 11%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Milan at home
Roma away

Last 10 matches before this match

Milan all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
07.01.24 Empoli – Milan 0–3 (0–2) 5.253.801.67 1.75 2.05
30.12.23 Milan – Sassuolo 1–0 (0–0) 1.454.756.50 1.50 2.50
22.12.23 Salernitana – Milan 2–2 (1–1) 8.004.501.44 1.65 2.20
17.12.23 Milan – Monza 3–0 (2–0) 1.624.335.00 1.80 2.00
09.12.23 Atalanta – Milan 3–2 (1–1) 2.503.203.00 2.05 1.75
02.12.23 Milan – Frosinone 3–1 (1–0) 1.444.507.50 1.70 2.10
25.11.23 Milan – Fiorentina 1–0 (1–0) 2.103.303.50 2.06 1.84
11.11.23 Lecce – Milan 2–2 (0–2) 5.003.601.75 2.08 1.73
04.11.23 Milan – Udinese 0–1 (0–0) 1.454.507.00 1.75 2.05
29.10.23 Napoli – Milan 2–2 (0–2) 2.203.403.30 2.04 1.86

Roma all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
07.01.24 Roma – Atalanta 1–1 (1–1) 2.403.203.10 2.15 1.67
30.12.23 Juventus – Roma 1–0 (0–0) 2.053.004.20 2.70 1.44
23.12.23 Roma – Napoli 2–0 (0–0) 3.003.102.50 2.15 1.67
17.12.23 Bologna – Roma 2–0 (1–0) 2.383.003.25 2.50 1.50
10.12.23 Roma – Fiorentina 1–1 (1–0) 2.103.303.50 2.15 1.67
03.12.23 Sassuolo – Roma 1–2 (1–0) 3.803.751.91 1.75 2.05
26.11.23 Roma – Udinese 3–1 (1–0) 1.623.805.75 2.05 1.75
12.11.23 Lazio – Roma 0–0 (0–0) 3.003.002.63 2.35 1.57
05.11.23 Roma – Lecce 2–1 (0–0) 1.573.806.50 2.10 1.70
29.10.23 Inter – Roma 1–0 (0–0) 1.624.005.50 2.03 1.87

Milan at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
30.12.23 Milan – Sassuolo 1–0 (0–0) 1.454.756.50 1.50 2.50
17.12.23 Milan – Monza 3–0 (2–0) 1.624.335.00 1.80 2.00
02.12.23 Milan – Frosinone 3–1 (1–0) 1.444.507.50 1.70 2.10
25.11.23 Milan – Fiorentina 1–0 (1–0) 2.103.303.50 2.06 1.84
04.11.23 Milan – Udinese 0–1 (0–0) 1.454.507.00 1.75 2.05
22.10.23 Milan – Juventus 0–1 (0–0) 2.253.403.20 2.10 1.70
30.09.23 Milan – Lazio 2–0 (0–0) 1.733.605.00 2.06 1.84
23.09.23 Milan – Verona 1–0 (1–0) 1.364.759.00 1.73 2.10
26.08.23 Milan – Torino 4–1 (3–1) 1.653.805.00 2.20 1.67
04.06.23 Milan – Verona 3–1 (1–0) 1.734.004.50 1.94 1.99

Roma away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
30.12.23 Juventus – Roma 1–0 (0–0) 2.053.004.20 2.70 1.44
17.12.23 Bologna – Roma 2–0 (1–0) 2.383.003.25 2.50 1.50
03.12.23 Sassuolo – Roma 1–2 (1–0) 3.803.751.91 1.75 2.05
12.11.23 Lazio – Roma 0–0 (0–0) 3.003.002.63 2.35 1.57
29.10.23 Inter – Roma 1–0 (0–0) 1.624.005.50 2.03 1.87
08.10.23 Cagliari – Roma 1–4 (0–2) 4.753.301.83 2.25 1.62
28.09.23 Genoa – Roma 4–1 (2–1) 3.803.252.05 2.30 1.62
24.09.23 Torino – Roma 1–1 (0–0) 3.102.902.60 2.63 1.50
26.08.23 Verona – Roma 2–1 (2–0) 4.333.501.83 2.30 1.62
27.05.23 Fiorentina – Roma 2–1 (0–1) 2.053.503.60 2.20 1.67

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Milan winsDrawsRoma wins
5matches
3.20goals / match
80%over 2.5
100%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.09.23I1 Roma – Milan 1–2 (0–1) 2.803.102.63 2.30 1.62
29.04.23I1 Roma – Milan 1–1 (0–0) 2.753.002.75 2.50 1.53
08.01.23I1 Milan – Roma 2–2 (1–0) 1.833.604.33 2.09 1.81
06.01.22I1 Milan – Roma 3–1 (2–1) 1.903.703.80 1.72 2.10
31.10.21I1 Roma – Milan 1–2 (0–1) 2.303.503.00 1.72 2.10

Italy Serie A table 2023/2024, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 20 16 3 1 49 10 +39 51
2 Juventus 19 14 4 1 29 12 +17 46
3 Milan 19 12 3 4 35 20 +15 39
4 Fiorentina 20 10 4 6 29 21 +8 34
5 Lazio 20 10 3 7 24 20 +4 33
6 Bologna 20 8 8 4 23 18 +5 32
7 Napoli 20 9 4 7 30 25 +5 31
8 Atalanta 19 9 3 7 30 21 +9 30
9 Roma 19 8 5 6 31 21 +10 29
10 Torino 20 7 7 6 18 18 0 28
11 Monza 20 6 7 7 20 25 -5 25
12 Genoa 20 5 7 8 20 24 -4 22
13 Lecce 20 4 9 7 20 26 -6 21
14 Sassuolo 19 5 4 10 26 33 -7 19
15 Frosinone 19 5 4 10 25 34 -9 19
16 Udinese 20 2 12 6 21 32 -11 18
17 Cagliari 20 4 6 10 19 33 -14 18
18 Verona 20 4 5 11 18 27 -9 17
19 Empoli 20 3 4 13 11 35 -24 13
20 Salernitana 20 2 6 12 17 40 -23 12
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 10 8 1 1 25 6 +19 25
2 Bologna 10 7 2 1 14 5 +9 23
3 Juventus 9 7 2 0 13 4 +9 23
4 Roma 10 6 3 1 22 8 +14 21
5 Milan 9 7 0 2 15 4 +11 21
6 Fiorentina 10 6 2 2 17 10 +7 20
7 Lazio 10 6 2 2 12 7 +5 20
8 Atalanta 9 6 1 2 17 7 +10 19
9 Torino 10 5 4 1 12 6 +6 19
10 Frosinone 10 5 2 3 17 15 +2 17
11 Lecce 10 4 4 2 12 12 0 16
12 Cagliari 10 4 3 3 13 16 -3 15
13 Genoa 10 3 5 2 12 11 +1 14
14 Napoli 10 4 2 4 14 14 0 14
15 Monza 10 3 4 3 11 11 0 13
16 Verona 10 3 3 4 11 13 -2 12
17 Sassuolo 10 3 2 5 13 15 -2 11
18 Udinese 10 1 6 3 13 16 -3 9
19 Salernitana 10 1 4 5 10 20 -10 7
20 Empoli 10 1 2 7 5 17 -12 5
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 10 8 2 0 24 4 +20 26
2 Juventus 10 7 2 1 16 8 +8 23
3 Milan 10 5 3 2 20 16 +4 18
4 Napoli 10 5 2 3 16 11 +5 17
5 Fiorentina 10 4 2 4 12 11 +1 14
6 Lazio 10 4 1 5 12 13 -1 13
7 Monza 10 3 3 4 9 14 -5 12
8 Atalanta 10 3 2 5 13 14 -1 11
9 Bologna 10 1 6 3 9 13 -4 9
10 Torino 10 2 3 5 6 12 -6 9
11 Udinese 10 1 6 3 8 16 -8 9
12 Roma 9 2 2 5 9 13 -4 8
13 Sassuolo 9 2 2 5 13 18 -5 8
14 Genoa 10 2 2 6 8 13 -5 8
15 Empoli 10 2 2 6 6 18 -12 8
16 Lecce 10 0 5 5 8 14 -6 5
17 Verona 10 1 2 7 7 14 -7 5
18 Salernitana 10 1 2 7 7 20 -13 5
19 Cagliari 10 0 3 7 6 17 -11 3
20 Frosinone 9 0 2 7 8 19 -11 2

Milan   Roma

Under / Over goals 2023/2024, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 7 Napoli 20 7 13 1.5 1.2 9 4 7 30 25 31
2 15 Frosinone 19 6 13 1.3 1.8 5 4 10 25 34 19
3 20 Salernitana 20 7 13 0.8 2.0 2 6 12 17 40 12
4 1 Inter 20 9 11 2.5 0.5 16 3 1 49 10 51
5 3 Milan 19 8 11 1.8 1.1 12 3 4 35 20 39
6 14 Sassuolo 19 8 11 1.4 1.7 5 4 10 26 33 19
7 17 Cagliari 20 9 11 0.9 1.6 4 6 10 19 33 18
8 8 Atalanta 19 9 10 1.6 1.1 9 3 7 30 21 30
9 16 Udinese 20 10 10 1.1 1.6 2 12 6 21 32 18
10 4 Fiorentina 20 11 9 1.4 1.1 10 4 6 29 21 34
11 9 Roma 19 10 9 1.6 1.1 8 5 6 31 21 29
12 18 Verona 20 11 9 0.9 1.4 4 5 11 18 27 17
13 6 Bologna 20 12 8 1.1 0.9 8 8 4 23 18 32
14 2 Juventus 19 12 7 1.5 0.6 14 4 1 29 12 46
15 5 Lazio 20 13 7 1.2 1.0 10 3 7 24 20 33
16 11 Monza 20 13 7 1.0 1.2 6 7 7 20 25 25
17 12 Genoa 20 13 7 1.0 1.2 5 7 8 20 24 22
18 13 Lecce 20 13 7 1.0 1.3 4 9 7 20 26 21
19 19 Empoli 20 13 7 0.6 1.8 3 4 13 11 35 13
20 10 Torino 20 14 6 0.9 0.9 7 7 6 18 18 28
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 15 Frosinone 10 2 8 1.7 1.5 5 2 3 17 15 17
2 7 Napoli 10 3 7 1.4 1.4 4 2 4 14 14 14
3 20 Salernitana 10 3 7 1.0 2.0 1 4 5 10 20 7
4 1 Inter 10 4 6 2.5 0.6 8 1 1 25 6 25
5 4 Fiorentina 10 4 6 1.7 1.0 6 2 2 17 10 20
6 16 Udinese 10 4 6 1.3 1.6 1 6 3 13 16 9
7 17 Cagliari 10 4 6 1.3 1.6 4 3 3 13 16 15
8 8 Atalanta 9 4 5 1.9 0.8 6 1 2 17 7 19
9 9 Roma 10 5 5 2.2 0.8 6 3 1 22 8 21
10 14 Sassuolo 10 5 5 1.3 1.5 3 2 5 13 15 11
11 18 Verona 10 5 5 1.1 1.3 3 3 4 11 13 12
12 10 Torino 10 6 4 1.2 0.6 5 4 1 12 6 19
13 13 Lecce 10 6 4 1.2 1.2 4 4 2 12 12 16
14 3 Milan 9 6 3 1.7 0.4 7 0 2 15 4 21
15 6 Bologna 10 7 3 1.4 0.5 7 2 1 14 5 23
16 11 Monza 10 7 3 1.1 1.1 3 4 3 11 11 13
17 12 Genoa 10 7 3 1.2 1.1 3 5 2 12 11 14
18 19 Empoli 10 7 3 0.5 1.7 1 2 7 5 17 5
19 2 Juventus 9 7 2 1.4 0.4 7 2 0 13 4 23
20 5 Lazio 10 8 2 1.2 0.7 6 2 2 12 7 20
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 3 Milan 10 2 8 2.0 1.6 5 3 2 20 16 18
2 7 Napoli 10 4 6 1.6 1.1 5 2 3 16 11 17
3 14 Sassuolo 9 3 6 1.4 2.0 2 2 5 13 18 8
4 20 Salernitana 10 4 6 0.7 2.0 1 2 7 7 20 5
5 1 Inter 10 5 5 2.4 0.4 8 2 0 24 4 26
6 2 Juventus 10 5 5 1.6 0.8 7 2 1 16 8 23
7 5 Lazio 10 5 5 1.2 1.3 4 1 5 12 13 13
8 6 Bologna 10 5 5 0.9 1.3 1 6 3 9 13 9
9 8 Atalanta 10 5 5 1.3 1.4 3 2 5 13 14 11
10 15 Frosinone 9 4 5 0.9 2.1 0 2 7 8 19 2
11 17 Cagliari 10 5 5 0.6 1.7 0 3 7 6 17 3
12 9 Roma 9 5 4 1.0 1.4 2 2 5 9 13 8
13 11 Monza 10 6 4 0.9 1.4 3 3 4 9 14 12
14 12 Genoa 10 6 4 0.8 1.3 2 2 6 8 13 8
15 16 Udinese 10 6 4 0.8 1.6 1 6 3 8 16 9
16 18 Verona 10 6 4 0.7 1.4 1 2 7 7 14 5
17 19 Empoli 10 6 4 0.6 1.8 2 2 6 6 18 8
18 4 Fiorentina 10 7 3 1.2 1.1 4 2 4 12 11 14
19 13 Lecce 10 7 3 0.8 1.4 0 5 5 8 14 5
20 10 Torino 10 8 2 0.6 1.2 2 3 5 6 12 9

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51