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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Premier League · ·Referee: T Bramall

Newcastle 4–4 Luton

Full time · half time 2–2 · season 2023/2024

Home 1.44 fair 1.68
Draw ✓ 4.75 fair 5.02
Away 6.50 fair 4.89
Under 2.5 2.35 fair 3.04
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.57 fair 1.49

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Newcastle Luton
19 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 8
8 Corners 2
13 Fouls 16
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (219 league matches this season so far).
Result Newcastle to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.58
Expected goals 2.22 – 1.24
Home / Draw / Away
NewcastleDrawLuton
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
2–1 9.6% 1–1 8.7% 2–0 7.8%

Statistics 2023/2024, before this match

Newcastle before this match, all matches
1.45points / match
2.00scored / match
1.50conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 22 played · 44:33
Luton before this match, all matches
0.90points / match
1.33scored / match
1.81conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 21 played · 28:38
Newcastle all matches all matches Luton

Per match

2.00 Goals scored 1.33
1.50 Goals conceded 1.81
3.50 Total goals 3.14
13.95 Shots 11.43
5.36 Shots on target 3.33
14.41 Shots faced 16.76
4.86 Corners 5.38
5.32 Corners against 5.48
10.55 Fouls 12.05
2.36 Yellow cards 1.81
0.82 1st-half goals scored 0.43
0.50 1st-half goals conceded 0.52

How often Full Time

45% Wins 24%
9% Draws 19%
45% Losses 57%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
77% Over 1.5 goals 81%
68% Over 2.5 goals 67%
55% Over 3.5 goals 38%
27% Over 4.5 goals 19%
14% Over 5.5 goals 5%
50% Both teams scored 71%
32% Clean sheets 10%
18% Failed to score 19%

How often Half Time

36% Wins 24%
41% Draws 38%
23% Losses 38%
68% Over 0.5 goals 62%
41% Over 1.5 goals 19%
23% Over 2.5 goals 14%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Newcastle all matches
Luton all matches
Newcastle before this match, at home
2.18points / match
2.27scored / match
0.91conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 11 played · 25:10
Luton before this match, away
0.80points / match
1.10scored / match
2.10conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 10 played · 11:21
Newcastle at home away Luton

Per match

2.27 Goals scored 1.10
0.91 Goals conceded 2.10
3.18 Total goals 3.20
16.55 Shots 9.90
6.45 Shots on target 2.70
12.55 Shots faced 19.40
5.36 Corners 4.50
5.45 Corners against 6.00
9.73 Fouls 11.30
2.27 Yellow cards 1.40
1.00 1st-half goals scored 0.30
0.36 1st-half goals conceded 0.50

How often Full Time

73% Wins 20%
0% Draws 20%
27% Losses 60%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
73% Over 1.5 goals 80%
64% Over 2.5 goals 70%
45% Over 3.5 goals 50%
27% Over 4.5 goals 20%
9% Over 5.5 goals 0%
45% Both teams scored 70%
55% Clean sheets 0%
0% Failed to score 30%

How often Half Time

45% Wins 20%
55% Draws 40%
0% Losses 40%
64% Over 0.5 goals 60%
45% Over 1.5 goals 10%
27% Over 2.5 goals 10%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Newcastle at home
Luton away

Last 10 matches before this match

Newcastle all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
30.01.24 Aston Villa – Newcastle 1–3 (0–2) 1.854.003.80 1.50 2.50
13.01.24 Newcastle – Man City 2–3 (2–1) 5.504.331.55 1.60 2.30
01.01.24 Liverpool – Newcastle 4–2 (0–0) 1.454.507.00 1.44 2.70
26.12.23 Newcastle – Nott'm Forest 1–3 (1–1) 1.504.335.75 1.80 2.00
23.12.23 Luton – Newcastle 1–0 (1–0) 4.754.201.65 1.75 2.05
16.12.23 Newcastle – Fulham 3–0 (0–0) 1.803.804.00 1.70 2.10
10.12.23 Tottenham – Newcastle 4–1 (2–0) 2.153.803.10 1.53 2.40
07.12.23 Everton – Newcastle 3–0 (0–0) 3.253.252.25 1.96 1.94
02.12.23 Newcastle – Man United 1–0 (0–0) 1.913.753.80 1.67 2.15
25.11.23 Newcastle – Chelsea 4–1 (1–1) 2.553.502.63 1.86 2.04

Luton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
30.01.24 Luton – Brighton 4–0 (3–0) 4.204.201.75 1.65 2.20
12.01.24 Burnley – Luton 1–1 (1–0) 2.003.603.60 1.99 1.91
30.12.23 Luton – Chelsea 2–3 (0–2) 6.504.201.50 1.65 2.20
26.12.23 Sheffield United – Luton 2–3 (0–1) 2.303.303.10 2.10 1.70
23.12.23 Luton – Newcastle 1–0 (1–0) 4.754.201.65 1.75 2.05
10.12.23 Luton – Man City 1–2 (1–0) 17.008.001.14 1.36 3.10
05.12.23 Luton – Arsenal 3–4 (1–2) 17.007.001.18 1.65 2.20
02.12.23 Brentford – Luton 3–1 (0–0) 1.454.506.50 1.70 2.10
25.11.23 Luton – Crystal Palace 2–1 (0–0) 3.603.302.10 2.15 1.67
11.11.23 Man United – Luton 1–0 (0–0) 1.335.259.50 1.53 2.40

Newcastle at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
13.01.24 Newcastle – Man City 2–3 (2–1) 5.504.331.55 1.60 2.30
26.12.23 Newcastle – Nott'm Forest 1–3 (1–1) 1.504.335.75 1.80 2.00
16.12.23 Newcastle – Fulham 3–0 (0–0) 1.803.804.00 1.70 2.10
02.12.23 Newcastle – Man United 1–0 (0–0) 1.913.753.80 1.67 2.15
25.11.23 Newcastle – Chelsea 4–1 (1–1) 2.553.502.63 1.86 2.04
04.11.23 Newcastle – Arsenal 1–0 (0–0) 2.803.202.60 1.95 1.95
21.10.23 Newcastle – Crystal Palace 4–0 (3–0) 1.454.507.00 1.85 2.05
30.09.23 Newcastle – Burnley 2–0 (1–0) 1.305.759.00 1.53 2.50
16.09.23 Newcastle – Brentford 1–0 (0–0) 1.534.206.00 1.67 2.20
27.08.23 Newcastle – Liverpool 1–2 (1–0) 2.203.753.00 1.50 2.63

Luton away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
12.01.24 Burnley – Luton 1–1 (1–0) 2.003.603.60 1.99 1.91
26.12.23 Sheffield United – Luton 2–3 (0–1) 2.303.303.10 2.10 1.70
02.12.23 Brentford – Luton 3–1 (0–0) 1.454.506.50 1.70 2.10
11.11.23 Man United – Luton 1–0 (0–0) 1.335.259.50 1.53 2.40
29.10.23 Aston Villa – Luton 3–1 (1–0) 1.256.509.50 1.48 2.60
21.10.23 Nott'm Forest – Luton 2–2 (0–0) 1.673.755.50 2.08 1.82
30.09.23 Everton – Luton 1–2 (1–2) 1.573.806.50 2.05 1.85
16.09.23 Fulham – Luton 1–0 (0–0) 1.673.755.50 1.89 2.01
25.08.23 Chelsea – Luton 3–0 (1–0) 1.295.5011.00 1.67 2.20
12.08.23 Brighton – Luton 4–1 (1–0) 1.335.509.00 1.62 2.30

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Newcastle winsDrawsLuton wins
1matches
1.00goals / match
0%over 2.5
0%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
23.12.23E0 Luton – Newcastle 1–0 (1–0) 4.754.201.65 1.75 2.05

England Premier League table 2023/2024, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Liverpool 22 15 6 1 51 19 +32 51
2 Man City 21 14 4 3 51 24 +27 46
3 Arsenal 22 14 4 4 44 21 +23 46
4 Tottenham 23 13 5 5 49 35 +14 44
5 Aston Villa 22 13 4 5 44 30 +14 43
6 West Ham 22 10 6 6 36 33 +3 36
7 Man United 22 11 2 9 28 32 -4 35
8 Newcastle 22 10 2 10 44 33 +11 32
9 Brighton 22 8 8 6 38 37 +1 32
10 Chelsea 22 9 4 9 36 35 +1 31
11 Wolves 22 8 5 9 33 35 -2 29
12 Everton 23 8 5 10 26 30 -4 29
13 Bournemouth 21 7 5 9 29 40 -11 26
14 Fulham 22 7 4 11 28 36 -8 25
15 Crystal Palace 22 6 6 10 25 36 -11 24
16 Brentford 21 6 4 11 31 36 -5 22
17 Nott'm Forest 22 5 5 12 27 40 -13 20
18 Luton 21 5 4 12 28 38 -10 19
19 Burnley 22 3 3 16 22 45 -23 12
20 Sheffield United 22 2 4 16 19 54 -35 10
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Liverpool 11 9 2 0 30 9 +21 29
2 Aston Villa 11 9 1 1 30 11 +19 28
3 Arsenal 11 8 2 1 27 10 +17 26
4 Man City 10 7 3 0 27 10 +17 24
5 Newcastle 11 8 0 3 25 10 +15 24
6 Tottenham 11 8 0 3 23 15 +8 24
7 Brighton 11 5 5 1 22 14 +8 20
8 Fulham 11 6 1 4 19 12 +7 19
9 West Ham 11 5 4 2 18 11 +7 19
10 Man United 11 6 1 4 15 18 -3 19
11 Chelsea 11 5 3 3 18 14 +4 18
12 Wolves 11 5 3 3 19 18 +1 18
13 Brentford 11 4 3 4 20 20 0 15
14 Everton 12 3 3 6 13 14 -1 12
15 Nott'm Forest 11 3 3 5 15 17 -2 12
16 Crystal Palace 11 3 3 5 14 16 -2 12
17 Bournemouth 10 3 3 4 11 16 -5 12
18 Luton 11 3 2 6 17 17 0 11
19 Sheffield United 11 2 2 7 12 26 -14 8
20 Burnley 11 1 1 9 11 25 -14 4
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Liverpool 11 6 4 1 21 10 +11 22
2 Man City 11 7 1 3 24 14 +10 22
3 Tottenham 12 5 5 2 26 20 +6 20
4 Arsenal 11 6 2 3 17 11 +6 20
5 Everton 11 5 2 4 13 16 -3 17
6 West Ham 11 5 2 4 18 22 -4 17
7 Man United 11 5 1 5 13 14 -1 16
8 Aston Villa 11 4 3 4 14 19 -5 15
9 Bournemouth 11 4 2 5 18 24 -6 14
10 Chelsea 11 4 1 6 18 21 -3 13
11 Brighton 11 3 3 5 16 23 -7 12
12 Crystal Palace 11 3 3 5 11 20 -9 12
13 Wolves 11 3 2 6 14 17 -3 11
14 Newcastle 11 2 2 7 19 23 -4 8
15 Burnley 11 2 2 7 11 20 -9 8
16 Luton 10 2 2 6 11 21 -10 8
17 Nott'm Forest 11 2 2 7 12 23 -11 8
18 Brentford 10 2 1 7 11 16 -5 7
19 Fulham 11 1 3 7 9 24 -15 6
20 Sheffield United 11 0 2 9 7 28 -21 2

Newcastle   Luton

Under / Over goals 2023/2024, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 4 Tottenham 23 5 18 2.1 1.5 13 5 5 49 35 44
2 2 Man City 21 6 15 2.4 1.1 14 4 3 51 24 46
3 5 Aston Villa 22 7 15 2.0 1.4 13 4 5 44 30 43
4 8 Newcastle 22 7 15 2.0 1.5 10 2 10 44 33 32
5 11 Wolves 22 7 15 1.5 1.6 8 5 9 33 35 29
6 13 Bournemouth 21 6 15 1.4 1.9 7 5 9 29 40 26
7 16 Brentford 21 6 15 1.5 1.7 6 4 11 31 36 22
8 1 Liverpool 22 8 14 2.3 0.9 15 6 1 51 19 51
9 6 West Ham 22 8 14 1.6 1.5 10 6 6 36 33 36
10 9 Brighton 22 8 14 1.7 1.7 8 8 6 38 37 32
11 18 Luton 21 7 14 1.3 1.8 5 4 12 28 38 19
12 20 Sheffield United 22 8 14 0.9 2.5 2 4 16 19 54 10
13 3 Arsenal 22 9 13 2.0 1.0 14 4 4 44 21 46
14 7 Man United 22 9 13 1.3 1.5 11 2 9 28 32 35
15 10 Chelsea 22 9 13 1.6 1.6 9 4 9 36 35 31
16 17 Nott'm Forest 22 9 13 1.2 1.8 5 5 12 27 40 20
17 12 Everton 23 11 12 1.1 1.3 8 5 10 26 30 29
18 14 Fulham 22 10 12 1.3 1.6 7 4 11 28 36 25
19 15 Crystal Palace 22 10 12 1.1 1.6 6 6 10 25 36 24
20 19 Burnley 22 10 12 1.0 2.0 3 3 16 22 45 12
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 4 Tottenham 11 2 9 2.1 1.4 8 0 3 23 15 24
2 16 Brentford 11 2 9 1.8 1.8 4 3 4 20 20 15
3 1 Liverpool 11 3 8 2.7 0.8 9 2 0 30 9 29
4 3 Arsenal 11 3 8 2.5 0.9 8 2 1 27 10 26
5 5 Aston Villa 11 3 8 2.7 1.0 9 1 1 30 11 28
6 7 Man United 11 3 8 1.4 1.6 6 1 4 15 18 19
7 11 Wolves 11 3 8 1.7 1.6 5 3 3 19 18 18
8 20 Sheffield United 11 3 8 1.1 2.4 2 2 7 12 26 8
9 8 Newcastle 11 4 7 2.3 0.9 8 0 3 25 10 24
10 9 Brighton 11 4 7 2.0 1.3 5 5 1 22 14 20
11 18 Luton 11 4 7 1.5 1.5 3 2 6 17 17 11
12 2 Man City 10 4 6 2.7 1.0 7 3 0 27 10 24
13 12 Everton 12 6 6 1.1 1.2 3 3 6 13 14 12
14 13 Bournemouth 10 4 6 1.1 1.6 3 3 4 11 16 12
15 14 Fulham 11 5 6 1.7 1.1 6 1 4 19 12 19
16 15 Crystal Palace 11 5 6 1.3 1.5 3 3 5 14 16 12
17 17 Nott'm Forest 11 5 6 1.4 1.5 3 3 5 15 17 12
18 19 Burnley 11 5 6 1.0 2.3 1 1 9 11 25 4
19 6 West Ham 11 6 5 1.6 1.0 5 4 2 18 11 19
20 10 Chelsea 11 6 5 1.6 1.3 5 3 3 18 14 18
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 2 Man City 11 2 9 2.2 1.3 7 1 3 24 14 22
2 4 Tottenham 12 3 9 2.2 1.7 5 5 2 26 20 20
3 6 West Ham 11 2 9 1.6 2.0 5 2 4 18 22 17
4 13 Bournemouth 11 2 9 1.6 2.2 4 2 5 18 24 14
5 8 Newcastle 11 3 8 1.7 2.1 2 2 7 19 23 8
6 10 Chelsea 11 3 8 1.6 1.9 4 1 6 18 21 13
7 5 Aston Villa 11 4 7 1.3 1.7 4 3 4 14 19 15
8 9 Brighton 11 4 7 1.5 2.1 3 3 5 16 23 12
9 11 Wolves 11 4 7 1.3 1.5 3 2 6 14 17 11
10 17 Nott'm Forest 11 4 7 1.1 2.1 2 2 7 12 23 8
11 18 Luton 10 3 7 1.1 2.1 2 2 6 11 21 8
12 1 Liverpool 11 5 6 1.9 0.9 6 4 1 21 10 22
13 12 Everton 11 5 6 1.2 1.5 5 2 4 13 16 17
14 14 Fulham 11 5 6 0.8 2.2 1 3 7 9 24 6
15 15 Crystal Palace 11 5 6 1.0 1.8 3 3 5 11 20 12
16 16 Brentford 10 4 6 1.1 1.6 2 1 7 11 16 7
17 19 Burnley 11 5 6 1.0 1.8 2 2 7 11 20 8
18 20 Sheffield United 11 5 6 0.6 2.5 0 2 9 7 28 2
19 3 Arsenal 11 6 5 1.5 1.0 6 2 3 17 11 20
20 7 Man United 11 6 5 1.2 1.3 5 1 5 13 14 16

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 05:38