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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Premier League · ·Referee: R Jones

Brighton 1–0 Aston Villa

Full time · half time 0–0 · season 2023/2024

Home ✓ 2.75 fair 2.59
Draw 3.75 fair 4.46
Away 2.45 fair 2.57
Under 2.5 ✓ 2.63 fair 3.04
Over 2.5 1.50 fair 1.49

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Brighton Aston Villa
15 Shots 2
8 Shots on target 1
7 Corners 3
13 Fouls 10
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (353 league matches this season so far).
Result Aston Villa to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.48
Expected goals 1.72 – 1.73
Home / Draw / Away
BrightonDrawAston Villa
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 9.4% 1–2 8.2% 2–1 8.1%

Statistics 2023/2024, before this match

Brighton before this match, all matches
1.29points / match
1.53scored / match
1.68conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 34 played · 52:57
Aston Villa before this match, all matches
1.91points / match
2.09scored / match
1.49conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 35 played · 73:52
Brighton all matches all matches Aston Villa

Per match

1.53 Goals scored 2.09
1.68 Goals conceded 1.49
3.21 Total goals 3.57
14.79 Shots 13.86
5.62 Shots on target 5.20
12.44 Shots faced 11.71
5.41 Corners 6.31
4.26 Corners against 4.23
10.65 Fouls 10.97
2.35 Yellow cards 2.51
0.65 1st-half goals scored 1.00
0.79 1st-half goals conceded 0.49

How often Full Time

32% Wins 57%
32% Draws 20%
35% Losses 23%
91% Over 0.5 goals 97%
88% Over 1.5 goals 89%
65% Over 2.5 goals 71%
44% Over 3.5 goals 57%
24% Over 4.5 goals 29%
6% Over 5.5 goals 11%
68% Both teams scored 69%
15% Clean sheets 23%
26% Failed to score 11%

How often Half Time

35% Wins 46%
26% Draws 31%
38% Losses 23%
82% Over 0.5 goals 77%
41% Over 1.5 goals 49%
21% Over 2.5 goals 17%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Brighton all matches
Aston Villa all matches
Brighton before this match, at home
1.69points / match
1.75scored / match
1.44conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 16 played · 28:23
Aston Villa before this match, away
1.65points / match
1.65scored / match
1.59conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 17 played · 28:27
Brighton at home away Aston Villa

Per match

1.75 Goals scored 1.65
1.44 Goals conceded 1.59
3.19 Total goals 3.24
16.19 Shots 13.18
6.25 Shots on target 4.82
10.75 Shots faced 12.94
7.25 Corners 6.59
3.50 Corners against 4.82
11.38 Fouls 10.76
1.94 Yellow cards 2.41
0.81 1st-half goals scored 0.88
0.63 1st-half goals conceded 0.65

How often Full Time

44% Wins 47%
38% Draws 24%
19% Losses 29%
94% Over 0.5 goals 94%
88% Over 1.5 goals 88%
63% Over 2.5 goals 65%
50% Over 3.5 goals 41%
19% Over 4.5 goals 29%
6% Over 5.5 goals 6%
75% Both teams scored 65%
13% Clean sheets 24%
19% Failed to score 18%

How often Half Time

44% Wins 29%
25% Draws 35%
31% Losses 35%
88% Over 0.5 goals 76%
38% Over 1.5 goals 53%
19% Over 2.5 goals 18%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Brighton at home
Aston Villa away

Last 10 matches before this match

Brighton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
28.04.24 Bournemouth – Brighton 3–0 (1–0) 2.253.802.90 1.44 2.75
25.04.24 Brighton – Man City 0–4 (0–3) 6.505.001.40 1.50 2.63
13.04.24 Burnley – Brighton 1–1 (0–0) 3.503.752.00 1.67 2.20
06.04.24 Brighton – Arsenal 0–3 (0–1) 5.004.331.62 1.62 2.30
03.04.24 Brentford – Brighton 0–0 (0–0) 2.383.802.75 1.57 2.38
31.03.24 Liverpool – Brighton 2–1 (1–1) 1.365.507.50 1.36 3.10
10.03.24 Brighton – Nott'm Forest 1–0 (1–0) 1.804.004.00 1.62 2.25
02.03.24 Fulham – Brighton 3–0 (2–0) 2.553.602.63 1.62 2.25
24.02.24 Brighton – Everton 1–1 (0–0) 1.833.804.20 1.65 2.20
18.02.24 Sheffield United – Brighton 0–5 (0–2) 5.004.201.62 1.57 2.35

Aston Villa all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
27.04.24 Aston Villa – Chelsea 2–2 (2–0) 2.153.803.00 1.44 2.75
21.04.24 Aston Villa – Bournemouth 3–1 (1–1) 1.854.003.60 1.44 2.75
14.04.24 Arsenal – Aston Villa 0–2 (0–0) 1.295.7510.00 1.50 2.63
06.04.24 Aston Villa – Brentford 3–3 (1–0) 1.704.004.75 1.53 2.50
03.04.24 Man City – Aston Villa 4–1 (2–1) 1.306.008.00 1.40 3.00
30.03.24 Aston Villa – Wolves 2–0 (1–0) 1.604.335.00 1.57 2.35
17.03.24 West Ham – Aston Villa 1–1 (1–0) 2.633.752.45 1.57 2.35
10.03.24 Aston Villa – Tottenham 0–4 (0–0) 2.384.002.60 1.36 3.10
02.03.24 Luton – Aston Villa 2–3 (0–2) 4.334.201.73 1.44 2.70
24.02.24 Aston Villa – Nott'm Forest 4–2 (3–1) 1.534.505.75 1.57 2.35

Brighton at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
25.04.24 Brighton – Man City 0–4 (0–3) 6.505.001.40 1.50 2.63
06.04.24 Brighton – Arsenal 0–3 (0–1) 5.004.331.62 1.62 2.30
10.03.24 Brighton – Nott'm Forest 1–0 (1–0) 1.804.004.00 1.62 2.25
24.02.24 Brighton – Everton 1–1 (0–0) 1.833.804.20 1.65 2.20
03.02.24 Brighton – Crystal Palace 4–1 (3–0) 1.704.004.75 1.73 2.08
22.01.24 Brighton – Wolves 0–0 (0–0) 1.654.335.00 1.62 2.25
28.12.23 Brighton – Tottenham 4–2 (2–0) 2.503.602.60 1.44 2.70
09.12.23 Brighton – Burnley 1–1 (0–1) 1.504.756.00 1.57 2.35
06.12.23 Brighton – Brentford 2–1 (1–1) 1.913.803.75 1.62 2.25
12.11.23 Brighton – Sheffield United 1–1 (1–0) 1.255.7513.00 1.40 2.88

Aston Villa away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
14.04.24 Arsenal – Aston Villa 0–2 (0–0) 1.295.7510.00 1.50 2.63
03.04.24 Man City – Aston Villa 4–1 (2–1) 1.306.008.00 1.40 3.00
17.03.24 West Ham – Aston Villa 1–1 (1–0) 2.633.752.45 1.57 2.35
02.03.24 Luton – Aston Villa 2–3 (0–2) 4.334.201.73 1.44 2.70
17.02.24 Fulham – Aston Villa 1–2 (0–1) 2.903.752.20 1.60 2.30
03.02.24 Sheffield United – Aston Villa 0–5 (0–4) 5.254.201.62 1.62 2.25
14.01.24 Everton – Aston Villa 0–0 (0–0) 2.803.502.45 1.73 2.08
26.12.23 Man United – Aston Villa 3–2 (0–2) 2.603.502.60 1.62 2.25
17.12.23 Brentford – Aston Villa 1–2 (1–0) 3.203.752.10 1.70 2.10
03.12.23 Bournemouth – Aston Villa 2–2 (1–1) 3.404.001.95 1.53 2.40

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Brighton winsDrawsAston Villa wins
5matches
3.40goals / match
60%over 2.5
60%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
30.09.23E0 Aston Villa – Brighton 6–1 (3–0) 2.553.752.55 1.44 2.75
28.05.23E0 Aston Villa – Brighton 2–1 (2–1) 2.003.603.50 1.53 2.50
13.11.22E0 Brighton – Aston Villa 1–2 (1–1) 1.833.754.20 1.96 1.94
26.02.22E0 Brighton – Aston Villa 0–2 (0–1) 2.203.303.50 2.10 1.72
20.11.21E0 Aston Villa – Brighton 2–0 (0–0) 2.453.302.90 2.10 1.72

England Premier League table 2023/2024, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 36 26 5 5 88 28 +60 83
2 Man City 35 25 7 3 87 33 +54 82
3 Liverpool 35 22 9 4 77 36 +41 75
4 Aston Villa 35 20 7 8 73 52 +21 67
5 Tottenham 34 18 6 10 67 54 +13 60
6 Newcastle 35 17 5 13 78 56 +22 56
7 Man United 34 16 6 12 52 51 +1 54
8 Chelsea 34 14 9 11 65 59 +6 51
9 West Ham 35 13 10 12 56 65 -9 49
10 Bournemouth 36 13 9 14 52 63 -11 48
11 Wolves 36 13 7 16 49 60 -11 46
12 Everton 36 12 9 15 38 49 -11 45
13 Fulham 36 12 8 16 51 55 -4 44
14 Brighton 34 11 11 12 52 57 -5 44
15 Crystal Palace 35 10 10 15 45 57 -12 40
16 Brentford 36 9 9 18 52 60 -8 36
17 Nott'm Forest 36 8 9 19 45 63 -18 33
18 Luton 36 6 8 22 49 78 -29 26
19 Burnley 36 5 9 22 39 74 -35 24
20 Sheffield United 36 3 7 26 35 100 -65 16
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 18 13 5 0 48 15 +33 44
2 Arsenal 18 14 2 2 46 15 +31 44
3 Liverpool 17 13 3 1 43 15 +28 42
4 Newcastle 18 12 3 3 48 21 +27 39
5 Aston Villa 18 12 3 3 45 25 +20 39
6 Tottenham 17 12 0 5 36 24 +12 36
7 Chelsea 17 9 4 4 37 25 +12 31
8 Man United 17 9 3 5 28 25 +3 30
9 Fulham 18 9 2 7 31 20 +11 29
10 Brighton 16 7 6 3 28 23 +5 27
11 Bournemouth 18 7 6 5 26 26 0 27
12 Wolves 18 8 3 7 25 27 -2 27
13 West Ham 18 6 8 4 28 27 +1 26
14 Everton 18 7 4 7 21 18 +3 25
15 Crystal Palace 17 6 4 7 28 26 +2 22
16 Brentford 18 5 7 6 27 30 -3 22
17 Nott'm Forest 18 5 5 8 25 27 -2 20
18 Luton 18 4 4 10 26 33 -7 16
19 Burnley 18 2 4 12 18 41 -23 10
20 Sheffield United 18 2 4 12 19 54 -35 10
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 18 12 3 3 42 13 +29 39
2 Man City 17 12 2 3 39 18 +21 38
3 Liverpool 18 9 6 3 34 21 +13 33
4 Aston Villa 17 8 4 5 28 27 +1 28
5 Tottenham 17 6 6 5 31 30 +1 24
6 Man United 17 7 3 7 24 26 -2 24
7 West Ham 17 7 2 8 28 38 -10 23
8 Bournemouth 18 6 3 9 26 37 -11 21
9 Chelsea 17 5 5 7 28 34 -6 20
10 Everton 18 5 5 8 17 31 -14 20
11 Wolves 18 5 4 9 24 33 -9 19
12 Crystal Palace 18 4 6 8 17 31 -14 18
13 Newcastle 17 5 2 10 30 35 -5 17
14 Brighton 18 4 5 9 24 34 -10 17
15 Fulham 18 3 6 9 20 35 -15 15
16 Brentford 18 4 2 12 25 30 -5 14
17 Burnley 18 3 5 10 21 33 -12 14
18 Nott'm Forest 18 3 4 11 20 36 -16 13
19 Luton 18 2 4 12 23 45 -22 10
20 Sheffield United 18 1 3 14 16 46 -30 6

Brighton   Aston Villa

Under / Over goals 2023/2024, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Tottenham 34 7 27 2.0 1.6 18 6 10 67 54 60
2 20 Sheffield United 36 10 26 1.0 2.8 3 7 26 35 100 16
3 4 Aston Villa 35 10 25 2.1 1.5 20 7 8 73 52 67
4 6 Newcastle 35 10 25 2.2 1.6 17 5 13 78 56 56
5 10 Bournemouth 36 11 25 1.4 1.8 13 9 14 52 63 48
6 18 Luton 36 11 25 1.4 2.2 6 8 22 49 78 26
7 1 Arsenal 36 13 23 2.4 0.8 26 5 5 88 28 83
8 3 Liverpool 35 12 23 2.2 1.0 22 9 4 77 36 75
9 8 Chelsea 34 11 23 1.9 1.7 14 9 11 65 59 51
10 9 West Ham 35 12 23 1.6 1.9 13 10 12 56 65 49
11 11 Wolves 36 13 23 1.4 1.7 13 7 16 49 60 46
12 16 Brentford 36 13 23 1.4 1.7 9 9 18 52 60 36
13 2 Man City 35 13 22 2.5 0.9 25 7 3 87 33 82
14 7 Man United 34 12 22 1.5 1.5 16 6 12 52 51 54
15 13 Fulham 36 14 22 1.4 1.5 12 8 16 51 55 44
16 14 Brighton 34 12 22 1.5 1.7 11 11 12 52 57 44
17 19 Burnley 36 15 21 1.1 2.1 5 9 22 39 74 24
18 17 Nott'm Forest 36 17 19 1.2 1.8 8 9 19 45 63 33
19 15 Crystal Palace 35 17 18 1.3 1.6 10 10 15 45 57 40
20 12 Everton 36 21 15 1.1 1.4 12 9 15 38 49 45
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Tottenham 17 2 15 2.1 1.4 12 0 5 36 24 36
2 20 Sheffield United 18 3 15 1.1 3.0 2 4 12 19 54 10
3 4 Aston Villa 18 4 14 2.5 1.4 12 3 3 45 25 39
4 1 Arsenal 18 5 13 2.6 0.8 14 2 2 46 15 44
5 6 Newcastle 18 5 13 2.7 1.2 12 3 3 48 21 39
6 3 Liverpool 17 5 12 2.5 0.9 13 3 1 43 15 42
7 7 Man United 17 5 12 1.6 1.5 9 3 5 28 25 30
8 16 Brentford 18 6 12 1.5 1.7 5 7 6 27 30 22
9 18 Luton 18 6 12 1.4 1.8 4 4 10 26 33 16
10 10 Bournemouth 18 7 11 1.4 1.4 7 6 5 26 26 27
11 11 Wolves 18 7 11 1.4 1.5 8 3 7 25 27 27
12 13 Fulham 18 7 11 1.7 1.1 9 2 7 31 20 29
13 2 Man City 18 8 10 2.7 0.8 13 5 0 48 15 44
14 8 Chelsea 17 7 10 2.2 1.5 9 4 4 37 25 31
15 14 Brighton 16 6 10 1.8 1.4 7 6 3 28 23 27
16 15 Crystal Palace 17 7 10 1.6 1.5 6 4 7 28 26 22
17 19 Burnley 18 8 10 1.0 2.3 2 4 12 18 41 10
18 9 West Ham 18 9 9 1.6 1.5 6 8 4 28 27 26
19 17 Nott'm Forest 18 9 9 1.4 1.5 5 5 8 25 27 20
20 12 Everton 18 11 7 1.2 1.0 7 4 7 21 18 25
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 9 West Ham 17 3 14 1.6 2.2 7 2 8 28 38 23
2 10 Bournemouth 18 4 14 1.4 2.1 6 3 9 26 37 21
3 8 Chelsea 17 4 13 1.6 2.0 5 5 7 28 34 20
4 18 Luton 18 5 13 1.3 2.5 2 4 12 23 45 10
5 2 Man City 17 5 12 2.3 1.1 12 2 3 39 18 38
6 5 Tottenham 17 5 12 1.8 1.8 6 6 5 31 30 24
7 6 Newcastle 17 5 12 1.8 2.1 5 2 10 30 35 17
8 11 Wolves 18 6 12 1.3 1.8 5 4 9 24 33 19
9 14 Brighton 18 6 12 1.3 1.9 4 5 9 24 34 17
10 3 Liverpool 18 7 11 1.9 1.2 9 6 3 34 21 33
11 4 Aston Villa 17 6 11 1.6 1.6 8 4 5 28 27 28
12 13 Fulham 18 7 11 1.1 1.9 3 6 9 20 35 15
13 16 Brentford 18 7 11 1.4 1.7 4 2 12 25 30 14
14 19 Burnley 18 7 11 1.2 1.8 3 5 10 21 33 14
15 20 Sheffield United 18 7 11 0.9 2.6 1 3 14 16 46 6
16 1 Arsenal 18 8 10 2.3 0.7 12 3 3 42 13 39
17 7 Man United 17 7 10 1.4 1.5 7 3 7 24 26 24
18 17 Nott'm Forest 18 8 10 1.1 2.0 3 4 11 20 36 13
19 12 Everton 18 10 8 0.9 1.7 5 5 8 17 31 20
20 15 Crystal Palace 18 10 8 0.9 1.7 4 6 8 17 31 18

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51