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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
Italy Serie A ·

Milan 2–1 Fiorentina

Full time · half time 0–0 · season 2025/2026

Home ✓ 1.50 fair 2.19
Draw 4.33 fair 3.60
Away 6.50 fair 3.76
Under 2.5 1.98 fair 1.67
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.88 fair 2.50

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Milan Fiorentina
14 Shots 5
4 Shots on target 1
1 Corners 3
14 Fouls 12
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (68 league matches this season so far).
Result Milan to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score No fair 1.82
Expected goals 1.34 – 0.95
Home / Draw / Away
MilanDrawFiorentina
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–0 13.6% 1–1 12.9% 0–0 10.2%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Milan before this match, all matches
2.17points / match
1.50scored / match
0.50conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 6 played · 9:3
Fiorentina before this match, all matches
0.50points / match
0.67scored / match
1.33conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 6 played · 4:8
Milan all matches all matches Fiorentina

Per match

1.50 Goals scored 0.67
0.50 Goals conceded 1.33
2.00 Total goals 2.00
14.00 Shots 12.00
4.67 Shots on target 2.33
9.50 Shots faced 12.17
4.33 Corners 4.00
4.00 Corners against 4.83
9.50 Fouls 15.17
1.17 Yellow cards 1.83
0.67 1st-half goals scored 0.33
0.17 1st-half goals conceded 0.67

How often Full Time

67% Wins 0%
17% Draws 50%
17% Losses 50%
83% Over 0.5 goals 67%
67% Over 1.5 goals 67%
50% Over 2.5 goals 50%
0% Over 3.5 goals 17%
0% Over 4.5 goals 0%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
33% Both teams scored 67%
67% Clean sheets 33%
17% Failed to score 33%

How often Half Time

33% Wins 17%
67% Draws 50%
0% Losses 33%
50% Over 0.5 goals 50%
33% Over 1.5 goals 33%
0% Over 2.5 goals 17%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Milan all matches
Fiorentina all matches
Milan before this match, at home
2.00points / match
1.33scored / match
1.00conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 3 played · 4:3
Fiorentina before this match, away
1.00points / match
0.33scored / match
0.33conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 3 played · 1:1
Milan at home away Fiorentina

Per match

1.33 Goals scored 0.33
1.00 Goals conceded 0.33
2.33 Total goals 0.67
14.67 Shots 11.33
4.00 Shots on target 2.33
9.33 Shots faced 10.67
5.67 Corners 3.67
4.33 Corners against 4.67
11.33 Fouls 14.00
1.67 Yellow cards 1.67
1.00 1st-half goals scored 0.00
0.33 1st-half goals conceded 0.00

How often Full Time

67% Wins 0%
0% Draws 100%
33% Losses 0%
100% Over 0.5 goals 33%
67% Over 1.5 goals 33%
67% Over 2.5 goals 0%
0% Over 3.5 goals 0%
0% Over 4.5 goals 0%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
67% Both teams scored 33%
33% Clean sheets 67%
0% Failed to score 67%

How often Half Time

33% Wins 0%
67% Draws 100%
0% Losses 0%
67% Over 0.5 goals 0%
67% Over 1.5 goals 0%
0% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Milan at home
Fiorentina away

Last 10 matches before this match

Milan all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
05.10.25 Juventus – Milan 0–0 (0–0) 2.703.202.70 2.10 1.73
28.09.25 Milan – Napoli 2–1 (2–0) 2.353.103.20 2.10 1.73
20.09.25 Udinese – Milan 0–3 (0–1) 4.333.601.83 2.10 1.73
14.09.25 Milan – Bologna 1–0 (0–0) 1.913.404.20 2.00 1.85
29.08.25 Lecce – Milan 0–2 (0–0) 6.003.901.57 2.00 1.85
23.08.25 Milan – Cremonese 1–2 (1–1) 1.335.259.00 1.67 2.20
24.05.25 Milan – Monza 2–0 (0–0) 1.227.0011.00 1.33 3.40
18.05.25 Roma – Milan 3–1 (1–1) 2.303.602.90 1.73 2.10
09.05.25 Milan – Bologna 3–1 (0–0) 2.303.403.00 1.99 1.91
05.05.25 Genoa – Milan 1–2 (0–0) 4.753.701.80 1.99 1.91

Fiorentina all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
05.10.25 Fiorentina – Roma 1–2 (1–2) 3.003.302.40 2.00 1.80
28.09.25 Pisa – Fiorentina 0–0 (0–0) 3.303.252.25 2.20 1.67
21.09.25 Fiorentina – Como 1–2 (1–0) 2.603.202.80 2.10 1.73
13.09.25 Fiorentina – Napoli 1–3 (0–2) 3.503.102.25 2.38 1.57
31.08.25 Torino – Fiorentina 0–0 (0–0) 3.203.102.40 2.30 1.62
24.08.25 Cagliari – Fiorentina 1–1 (0–0) 3.253.302.25 2.10 1.73
25.05.25 Udinese – Fiorentina 2–3 (1–0) 3.703.602.00 1.98 1.88
18.05.25 Fiorentina – Bologna 3–2 (1–0) 2.753.002.75 2.30 1.62
12.05.25 Venezia – Fiorentina 2–1 (0–0) 3.103.202.38 2.20 1.67
04.05.25 Roma – Fiorentina 1–0 (1–0) 1.653.705.50 2.03 1.87

Milan at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
28.09.25 Milan – Napoli 2–1 (2–0) 2.353.103.20 2.10 1.73
14.09.25 Milan – Bologna 1–0 (0–0) 1.913.404.20 2.00 1.85
23.08.25 Milan – Cremonese 1–2 (1–1) 1.335.259.00 1.67 2.20
24.05.25 Milan – Monza 2–0 (0–0) 1.227.0011.00 1.33 3.40
09.05.25 Milan – Bologna 3–1 (0–0) 2.303.403.00 1.99 1.91
20.04.25 Milan – Atalanta 0–1 (0–0) 2.503.402.75 1.67 2.20
05.04.25 Milan – Fiorentina 2–2 (1–2) 1.903.504.20 1.73 2.10
15.03.25 Milan – Como 2–1 (0–1) 1.803.604.50 1.73 2.10
02.03.25 Milan – Lazio 1–2 (0–1) 2.053.603.50 1.86 2.04
15.02.25 Milan – Verona 1–0 (0–0) 1.334.759.50 1.57 2.38

Fiorentina away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
28.09.25 Pisa – Fiorentina 0–0 (0–0) 3.303.252.25 2.20 1.67
31.08.25 Torino – Fiorentina 0–0 (0–0) 3.203.102.40 2.30 1.62
24.08.25 Cagliari – Fiorentina 1–1 (0–0) 3.253.302.25 2.10 1.73
25.05.25 Udinese – Fiorentina 2–3 (1–0) 3.703.602.00 1.98 1.88
12.05.25 Venezia – Fiorentina 2–1 (0–0) 3.103.202.38 2.20 1.67
04.05.25 Roma – Fiorentina 1–0 (1–0) 1.653.705.50 2.03 1.87
23.04.25 Cagliari – Fiorentina 1–2 (1–1) 3.103.102.45 2.20 1.67
05.04.25 Milan – Fiorentina 2–2 (1–2) 1.903.504.20 1.73 2.10
09.03.25 Napoli – Fiorentina 2–1 (1–0) 1.554.006.25 2.05 1.68
23.02.25 Verona – Fiorentina 1–0 (0–0) 4.333.401.90 2.03 1.87

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Milan winsDrawsFiorentina wins
8matches
3.12goals / match
75%over 2.5
75%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
05.04.25I1 Milan – Fiorentina 2–2 (1–2) 1.903.504.20 1.73 2.10
06.10.24I1 Fiorentina – Milan 2–1 (1–0) 3.103.602.20 1.73 2.10
30.03.24I1 Fiorentina – Milan 1–2 (0–0) 2.883.302.50 2.01 1.89
25.11.23I1 Milan – Fiorentina 1–0 (1–0) 2.103.303.50 2.06 1.84
04.03.23I1 Fiorentina – Milan 2–1 (0–0) 2.803.302.55 2.10 1.73
13.11.22I1 Milan – Fiorentina 2–1 (1–1) 1.703.805.00 1.90 2.00
01.05.22I1 Milan – Fiorentina 1–0 (0–0) 1.614.005.50 1.72 2.10
20.11.21I1 Fiorentina – Milan 4–3 (2–0) 3.103.502.25 1.87 2.03

Italy Serie A table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 7 5 0 2 18 8 +10 15
2 Napoli 7 5 0 2 12 7 +5 15
3 Roma 7 5 0 2 7 3 +4 15
4 Bologna 7 4 1 2 11 5 +6 13
5 Milan 6 4 1 1 9 3 +6 13
6 Como 7 3 3 1 9 5 +4 12
7 Juventus 7 3 3 1 9 7 +2 12
8 Atalanta 7 2 5 0 11 5 +6 11
9 Sassuolo 7 3 1 3 8 8 0 10
10 Cremonese 6 2 3 1 7 8 -1 9
11 Lazio 7 2 2 3 10 7 +3 8
12 Cagliari 7 2 2 3 6 8 -2 8
13 Udinese 6 2 2 2 6 9 -3 8
14 Torino 7 2 2 3 6 13 -7 8
15 Parma 7 1 3 3 3 7 -4 6
16 Lecce 7 1 3 3 5 10 -5 6
17 Verona 7 0 4 3 2 9 -7 4
18 Fiorentina 6 0 3 3 4 8 -4 3
19 Genoa 7 0 3 4 3 9 -6 3
20 Pisa 7 0 3 4 3 10 -7 3
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 4 3 0 1 12 4 +8 9
2 Bologna 3 3 0 0 7 1 +6 9
3 Napoli 3 3 0 0 6 3 +3 9
4 Como 4 2 2 0 6 2 +4 8
5 Juventus 4 2 2 0 7 4 +3 8
6 Atalanta 4 1 3 0 6 3 +3 6
7 Milan 3 2 0 1 4 3 +1 6
8 Sassuolo 3 2 0 1 4 3 +1 6
9 Roma 4 2 0 2 3 2 +1 6
10 Lazio 3 1 1 1 7 4 +3 4
11 Cremonese 2 1 1 0 3 2 +1 4
12 Parma 3 1 1 1 3 3 0 4
13 Cagliari 4 1 1 2 3 5 -2 4
14 Torino 3 1 1 1 1 3 -2 4
15 Verona 3 0 2 1 1 2 -1 2
16 Pisa 4 0 2 2 0 2 -2 2
17 Lecce 4 0 2 2 3 6 -3 2
18 Udinese 3 0 2 1 2 5 -3 2
19 Genoa 4 0 2 2 0 4 -4 2
20 Fiorentina 3 0 0 3 3 7 -4 0
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Roma 3 3 0 0 4 1 +3 9
2 Milan 3 2 1 0 5 0 +5 7
3 Inter 3 2 0 1 6 4 +2 6
4 Napoli 4 2 0 2 6 4 +2 6
5 Udinese 3 2 0 1 4 4 0 6
6 Atalanta 3 1 2 0 5 2 +3 5
7 Cremonese 4 1 2 1 4 6 -2 5
8 Bologna 4 1 1 2 4 4 0 4
9 Cagliari 3 1 1 1 3 3 0 4
10 Como 3 1 1 1 3 3 0 4
11 Lazio 4 1 1 2 3 3 0 4
12 Sassuolo 4 1 1 2 4 5 -1 4
13 Juventus 3 1 1 1 2 3 -1 4
14 Lecce 3 1 1 1 2 4 -2 4
15 Torino 4 1 1 2 5 10 -5 4
16 Fiorentina 3 0 3 0 1 1 0 3
17 Parma 4 0 2 2 0 4 -4 2
18 Verona 4 0 2 2 1 7 -6 2
19 Genoa 3 0 1 2 3 5 -2 1
20 Pisa 3 0 1 2 3 8 -5 1

Milan   Fiorentina

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 Inter 7 2 5 2.6 1.1 5 0 2 18 8 15
2 2 Napoli 7 3 4 1.7 1.0 5 0 2 12 7 15
3 14 Torino 7 3 4 0.9 1.9 2 2 3 6 13 8
4 4 Bologna 7 4 3 1.6 0.7 4 1 2 11 5 13
5 5 Milan 6 3 3 1.5 0.5 4 1 1 9 3 13
6 9 Sassuolo 7 4 3 1.1 1.1 3 1 3 8 8 10
7 10 Cremonese 6 3 3 1.2 1.3 2 3 1 7 8 9
8 11 Lazio 7 4 3 1.4 1.0 2 2 3 10 7 8
9 13 Udinese 6 3 3 1.0 1.5 2 2 2 6 9 8
10 16 Lecce 7 4 3 0.7 1.4 1 3 3 5 10 6
11 18 Fiorentina 6 3 3 0.7 1.3 0 3 3 4 8 3
12 19 Genoa 7 4 3 0.4 1.3 0 3 4 3 9 3
13 8 Atalanta 7 5 2 1.6 0.7 2 5 0 11 5 11
14 20 Pisa 7 5 2 0.4 1.4 0 3 4 3 10 3
15 3 Roma 7 6 1 1.0 0.4 5 0 2 7 3 15
16 6 Como 7 6 1 1.3 0.7 3 3 1 9 5 12
17 7 Juventus 7 6 1 1.3 1.0 3 3 1 9 7 12
18 12 Cagliari 7 6 1 0.9 1.1 2 2 3 6 8 8
19 15 Parma 7 6 1 0.4 1.0 1 3 3 3 7 6
20 17 Verona 7 6 1 0.3 1.3 0 4 3 2 9 4
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 Inter 4 0 4 3.0 1.0 3 0 1 12 4 9
2 18 Fiorentina 3 0 3 1.0 2.3 0 0 3 3 7 0
3 2 Napoli 3 1 2 2.0 1.0 3 0 0 6 3 9
4 4 Bologna 3 1 2 2.3 0.3 3 0 0 7 1 9
5 5 Milan 3 1 2 1.3 1.0 2 0 1 4 3 6
6 11 Lazio 3 1 2 2.3 1.3 1 1 1 7 4 4
7 16 Lecce 4 2 2 0.8 1.5 0 2 2 3 6 2
8 7 Juventus 4 3 1 1.8 1.0 2 2 0 7 4 8
9 8 Atalanta 4 3 1 1.5 0.8 1 3 0 6 3 6
10 9 Sassuolo 3 2 1 1.3 1.0 2 0 1 4 3 6
11 10 Cremonese 2 1 1 1.5 1.0 1 1 0 3 2 4
12 13 Udinese 3 2 1 0.7 1.7 0 2 1 2 5 2
13 14 Torino 3 2 1 0.3 1.0 1 1 1 1 3 4
14 15 Parma 3 2 1 1.0 1.0 1 1 1 3 3 4
15 19 Genoa 4 3 1 0.0 1.0 0 2 2 0 4 2
16 3 Roma 4 4 0 0.8 0.5 2 0 2 3 2 6
17 6 Como 4 4 0 1.5 0.5 2 2 0 6 2 8
18 12 Cagliari 4 4 0 0.8 1.2 1 1 2 3 5 4
19 17 Verona 3 3 0 0.3 0.7 0 2 1 1 2 2
20 20 Pisa 4 4 0 0.0 0.5 0 2 2 0 2 2
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 14 Torino 4 1 3 1.2 2.5 1 1 2 5 10 4
2 2 Napoli 4 2 2 1.5 1.0 2 0 2 6 4 6
3 9 Sassuolo 4 2 2 1.0 1.2 1 1 2 4 5 4
4 10 Cremonese 4 2 2 1.0 1.5 1 2 1 4 6 5
5 13 Udinese 3 1 2 1.3 1.3 2 0 1 4 4 6
6 19 Genoa 3 1 2 1.0 1.7 0 1 2 3 5 1
7 20 Pisa 3 1 2 1.0 2.7 0 1 2 3 8 1
8 1 Inter 3 2 1 2.0 1.3 2 0 1 6 4 6
9 3 Roma 3 2 1 1.3 0.3 3 0 0 4 1 9
10 4 Bologna 4 3 1 1.0 1.0 1 1 2 4 4 4
11 5 Milan 3 2 1 1.7 0.0 2 1 0 5 0 7
12 6 Como 3 2 1 1.0 1.0 1 1 1 3 3 4
13 8 Atalanta 3 2 1 1.7 0.7 1 2 0 5 2 5
14 11 Lazio 4 3 1 0.8 0.8 1 1 2 3 3 4
15 12 Cagliari 3 2 1 1.0 1.0 1 1 1 3 3 4
16 16 Lecce 3 2 1 0.7 1.3 1 1 1 2 4 4
17 17 Verona 4 3 1 0.2 1.8 0 2 2 1 7 2
18 7 Juventus 3 3 0 0.7 1.0 1 1 1 2 3 4
19 15 Parma 4 4 0 0.0 1.0 0 2 2 0 4 2
20 18 Fiorentina 3 3 0 0.3 0.3 0 3 0 1 1 3

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51