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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
Portugal Primeira Liga ·

Nacional 4–0 Rio Ave

Full time · half time 1–0 · season 2025/2026

Home ✓ 2.15 fair 2.40
Draw 3.30 fair 4.18
Away 3.30 fair 2.91
Under 2.5 1.85 fair 2.44
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.95 fair 1.69

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Nacional Rio Ave
14 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 6
5 Corners 5
18 Fouls 6
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (166 league matches this season so far).
Result Nacional to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.63
Expected goals 1.61 – 1.45
Home / Draw / Away
NacionalDrawRio Ave
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 10.9% 2–1 8.8% 1–2 7.9%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Nacional before this match, all matches
0.94points / match
1.22scored / match
1.56conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 18 played · 22:28
Rio Ave before this match, all matches
1.11points / match
1.22scored / match
1.72conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 18 played · 22:31
Nacional all matches all matches Rio Ave

Per match

1.22 Goals scored 1.22
1.56 Goals conceded 1.72
2.78 Total goals 2.94
11.89 Shots 9.28
3.94 Shots on target 3.78
15.56 Shots faced 17.50
4.00 Corners 3.78
6.33 Corners against 7.17
14.89 Fouls 13.72
2.89 Yellow cards 2.78
0.56 1st-half goals scored 0.50
0.61 1st-half goals conceded 0.72

How often Full Time

22% Wins 22%
28% Draws 44%
50% Losses 33%
100% Over 0.5 goals 94%
78% Over 1.5 goals 89%
50% Over 2.5 goals 61%
28% Over 3.5 goals 39%
17% Over 4.5 goals 6%
6% Over 5.5 goals 6%
67% Both teams scored 61%
11% Clean sheets 11%
22% Failed to score 33%

How often Half Time

28% Wins 28%
44% Draws 33%
28% Losses 39%
72% Over 0.5 goals 78%
33% Over 1.5 goals 39%
6% Over 2.5 goals 6%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Nacional all matches
Rio Ave all matches
Nacional before this match, at home
0.88points / match
1.50scored / match
2.13conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 8 played · 12:17
Rio Ave before this match, away
1.22points / match
1.33scored / match
1.78conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 9 played · 12:16
Nacional at home away Rio Ave

Per match

1.50 Goals scored 1.33
2.13 Goals conceded 1.78
3.63 Total goals 3.11
10.63 Shots 9.33
4.00 Shots on target 3.56
19.13 Shots faced 18.00
4.00 Corners 3.78
8.38 Corners against 7.44
13.88 Fouls 15.00
3.25 Yellow cards 3.00
0.50 1st-half goals scored 0.33
0.75 1st-half goals conceded 0.44

How often Full Time

25% Wins 22%
13% Draws 56%
63% Losses 22%
100% Over 0.5 goals 89%
88% Over 1.5 goals 89%
75% Over 2.5 goals 67%
50% Over 3.5 goals 44%
38% Over 4.5 goals 11%
13% Over 5.5 goals 11%
75% Both teams scored 78%
0% Clean sheets 11%
25% Failed to score 22%

How often Half Time

13% Wins 22%
63% Draws 44%
25% Losses 33%
63% Over 0.5 goals 67%
38% Over 1.5 goals 11%
13% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Nacional at home
Rio Ave away

Last 10 matches before this match

Nacional all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
17.01.26 Gil Vicente – Nacional 2–1 (1–1) 1.613.605.50 2.00 1.80
11.01.26 Nacional – Santa Clara 3–3 (2–2) 2.703.002.70 2.50 1.50
02.01.26 Guimaraes – Nacional 2–1 (0–0) 1.813.304.50 2.15 1.67
21.12.25 AVS – Nacional 2–2 (2–0) 3.203.302.20 2.15 1.67
15.12.25 Nacional – Tondela 3–1 (0–0) 2.303.053.05 2.10 1.70
07.12.25 Alverca – Nacional 1–0 (0–0) 2.053.203.60 2.20 1.65
29.11.25 Nacional – Benfica 1–2 (0–0) 7.005.001.35 1.70 2.10
09.11.25 Estrela – Nacional 1–1 (0–1) 2.703.202.50 2.15 1.67
01.11.25 Nacional – Famalicao 0–1 (0–1) 3.203.252.20 2.05 1.75
26.10.25 Estoril – Nacional 1–1 (0–1) 2.153.253.30 2.05 1.75

Rio Ave all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
17.01.26 Rio Ave – Benfica 0–2 (0–2) 10.005.001.27 1.67 2.15
04.01.26 Rio Ave – Casa Pia 3–1 (0–0) 2.323.053.05 2.40 1.53
28.12.25 Sp Lisbon – Rio Ave 4–0 (1–0) 1.117.0017.00 1.40 2.88
20.12.25 Gil Vicente – Rio Ave 2–2 (1–1) 1.683.505.00 2.10 1.70
13.12.25 Rio Ave – Guimaraes 0–1 (0–1) 2.653.202.55 2.05 1.75
06.12.25 AVS – Rio Ave 1–2 (0–1) 2.953.252.35 2.10 1.70
30.11.25 Rio Ave – Santa Clara 1–1 (1–1) 2.953.052.45 2.40 1.53
08.11.25 Alverca – Rio Ave 1–1 (0–1) 2.153.303.20 2.15 1.67
01.11.25 Rio Ave – Estoril 0–4 (0–2) 2.353.202.95 2.00 1.85
25.10.25 Estrela – Rio Ave 1–2 (1–0) 2.573.202.70 2.15 1.67

Nacional at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
11.01.26 Nacional – Santa Clara 3–3 (2–2) 2.703.002.70 2.50 1.50
15.12.25 Nacional – Tondela 3–1 (0–0) 2.303.053.05 2.10 1.70
29.11.25 Nacional – Benfica 1–2 (0–0) 7.005.001.35 1.70 2.10
01.11.25 Nacional – Famalicao 0–1 (0–1) 3.203.252.20 2.05 1.75
04.10.25 Nacional – Moreirense 3–2 (1–1) 2.323.103.10 2.35 1.57
20.09.25 Nacional – Arouca 1–2 (0–0) 2.453.102.85 2.08 1.73
23.08.25 Nacional – Sp Lisbon 1–4 (1–0) 9.006.001.27 1.50 2.50
09.08.25 Nacional – Gil Vicente 0–2 (0–2) 2.503.102.90 2.10 1.70
10.05.25 Nacional – Rio Ave 3–3 (0–3) 1.953.503.75 1.93 1.93
03.05.25 Nacional – Guimaraes 1–2 (0–1) 4.203.501.85 1.98 1.88

Rio Ave away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
28.12.25 Sp Lisbon – Rio Ave 4–0 (1–0) 1.117.0017.00 1.40 2.88
20.12.25 Gil Vicente – Rio Ave 2–2 (1–1) 1.683.505.00 2.10 1.70
06.12.25 AVS – Rio Ave 1–2 (0–1) 2.953.252.35 2.10 1.70
08.11.25 Alverca – Rio Ave 1–1 (0–1) 2.153.303.20 2.15 1.67
25.10.25 Estrela – Rio Ave 1–2 (1–0) 2.573.202.70 2.15 1.67
28.09.25 Famalicao – Rio Ave 0–0 (0–0) 1.763.804.10 2.00 1.85
23.09.25 Benfica – Rio Ave 1–1 (0–0) 1.177.0011.00 1.40 2.88
13.09.25 Moreirense – Rio Ave 3–1 (0–0) 2.503.003.00 2.25 1.62
23.08.25 Arouca – Rio Ave 3–3 (1–0) 2.003.253.90 2.05 1.80
10.05.25 Nacional – Rio Ave 3–3 (0–3) 1.953.503.75 1.93 1.93

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Nacional winsDrawsRio Ave wins
3matches
3.67goals / match
67%over 2.5
100%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
17.08.25P1 Rio Ave – Nacional 1–1 (1–0) 2.253.203.20 2.05 1.75
10.05.25P1 Nacional – Rio Ave 3–3 (0–3) 1.953.503.75 1.93 1.93
29.12.24P1 Rio Ave – Nacional 2–1 (1–1) 2.203.103.50 2.08 1.73

Portugal Primeira Liga table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Porto 18 17 1 0 37 4 +33 52 WWWWWW
2 Sp Lisbon 19 15 3 1 52 10 +42 48 WWWDWW
3 Benfica 18 12 6 0 38 11 +27 42 DWWDWW
4 Gil Vicente 18 8 7 3 24 13 +11 31 DDDDDW
5 Sp Braga 18 8 6 4 32 18 +14 30 WWLDDW
6 Moreirense 19 9 3 7 26 26 0 30 LDWWLW
7 Famalicao 18 7 5 6 21 14 +7 26 LWLLLW
8 Estoril 19 7 5 7 37 31 +6 26 LWWLWW
9 Guimaraes 19 7 4 8 20 27 -7 25 WLDWLL
10 Alverca 18 7 2 9 19 28 -9 23 WLLLWW
11 Rio Ave 18 4 8 6 22 31 -9 20 WLDLWL
12 Estrela 18 4 7 7 23 32 -9 19 WLDWDL
13 Nacional 18 4 5 9 22 28 -6 17 LWDLDL
14 Santa Clara 19 4 5 10 14 21 -7 17 LDLDLL
15 Arouca 19 4 5 10 20 44 -24 17 WDDLWL
16 Casa Pia 19 3 6 10 20 38 -18 15 DWDLLD
17 Tondela 18 3 3 12 12 30 -18 12 LLLWLL
18 AVS 19 0 5 14 14 47 -33 5 LDLLLD
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Sp Lisbon 9 7 1 1 30 3 +27 22 DWWWWW
2 Porto 8 7 1 0 16 2 +14 22 WDWWWW
3 Benfica 9 5 4 0 19 7 +12 19 WWDDWW
4 Moreirense 9 6 1 2 14 11 +3 19 WLDLWW
5 Estoril 10 5 3 2 21 14 +7 18 DWDWWW
6 Gil Vicente 9 5 2 2 12 7 +5 17 WWLDDW
7 Alverca 10 5 1 4 9 14 -5 16 LDWLWW
8 Guimaraes 10 4 3 3 14 14 0 15 LWDLWL
9 Sp Braga 8 4 2 2 14 7 +7 14 LLWWWD
10 Famalicao 9 3 2 4 13 8 +5 11 DWLLWL
11 Santa Clara 10 3 2 5 7 8 -1 11 WLWDLL
12 Estrela 10 2 4 4 13 17 -4 10 LDWDDL
13 Rio Ave 9 2 3 4 10 15 -5 9 WLDLWL
14 Arouca 10 2 3 5 11 21 -10 9 DLLWDL
15 Nacional 8 2 1 5 12 17 -5 7 LWLLWD
16 Tondela 9 1 2 6 6 13 -7 5 LLLLWL
17 Casa Pia 9 0 5 4 10 18 -8 5 DLLDDD
18 AVS 10 0 3 7 7 19 -12 3 DDLDLL
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Porto 10 10 0 0 21 2 +19 30 WWWWWW
2 Sp Lisbon 10 8 2 0 22 7 +15 26 WWDWDW
3 Benfica 9 7 2 0 19 4 +15 23 DWWWDW
4 Sp Braga 10 4 4 2 18 11 +7 16 LWWLDW
5 Famalicao 9 4 3 2 8 6 +2 15 DWDLLW
6 Gil Vicente 9 3 5 1 12 6 +6 14 LWDDDD
7 Moreirense 10 3 2 5 12 15 -3 11 WLDDWL
8 Rio Ave 9 2 5 2 12 16 -4 11 DWDWDL
9 Nacional 10 2 4 4 10 11 -1 10 DDLDLL
10 Guimaraes 9 3 1 5 6 13 -7 10 LLWWDL
11 Casa Pia 10 3 1 6 10 20 -10 10 LDLWLL
12 Estrela 8 2 3 3 10 15 -5 9 DLWLLW
13 Estoril 9 2 2 5 16 17 -1 8 DWLLLW
14 Arouca 9 2 2 5 9 23 -14 8 LLLDLW
15 Alverca 8 2 1 5 10 14 -4 7 LWLWLL
16 Tondela 9 2 1 6 6 17 -11 7 WLDWLL
17 Santa Clara 9 1 3 5 7 13 -6 6 LLDLDL
18 AVS 9 0 2 7 7 28 -21 2 LLLLLD

Nacional   Rio Ave

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 2 Sp Lisbon 19 6 13 2.7 0.5 15 3 1 52 10 48 OOOUOO
2 8 Estoril 19 7 12 1.9 1.6 7 5 7 37 31 26 OUOOOO
3 15 Arouca 19 7 12 1.1 2.3 4 5 10 20 44 17 UUOOUO
4 18 AVS 19 7 12 0.7 2.5 0 5 14 14 47 5 OOUUUO
5 3 Benfica 18 7 11 2.1 0.6 12 6 0 38 11 42 UOUOOU
6 5 Sp Braga 18 7 11 1.8 1.0 8 6 4 32 18 30 OUUOOU
7 6 Moreirense 19 8 11 1.4 1.4 9 3 7 26 26 30 OUUUOU
8 11 Rio Ave 18 7 11 1.2 1.7 4 8 6 22 31 20 OUOOOU
9 10 Alverca 18 8 10 1.1 1.6 7 2 9 19 28 23 UUOOUO
10 12 Estrela 18 8 10 1.3 1.8 4 7 7 23 32 19 OOUOOO
11 16 Casa Pia 19 9 10 1.1 2.0 3 6 10 20 38 15 UOUOOO
12 17 Tondela 18 8 10 0.7 1.7 3 3 12 12 30 12 UOOOUU
13 1 Porto 18 9 9 2.1 0.2 17 1 0 37 4 52 UOOUUU
14 13 Nacional 18 9 9 1.2 1.6 4 5 9 22 28 17 UOOOOO
15 9 Guimaraes 19 11 8 1.1 1.4 7 4 8 20 27 25 UOUOUO
16 7 Famalicao 18 12 6 1.2 0.8 7 5 6 21 14 26 OOUOUU
17 14 Santa Clara 19 13 6 0.7 1.1 4 5 10 14 21 17 UUUOUU
18 4 Gil Vicente 18 13 5 1.3 0.7 8 7 3 24 13 31 UUOOUO
Home – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 2 Sp Lisbon 9 2 7 3.3 0.3 7 1 1 30 3 22 UUOOOO
2 6 Moreirense 9 3 6 1.6 1.2 6 1 2 14 11 19 OOOOUU
3 9 Guimaraes 10 4 6 1.4 1.4 4 3 3 14 14 15 OOUOOU
4 12 Estrela 10 4 6 1.3 1.7 2 4 4 13 17 10 OUOUOO
5 13 Nacional 8 2 6 1.5 2.1 2 1 5 12 17 7 OOUOOO
6 15 Arouca 10 4 6 1.1 2.1 2 3 5 11 21 9 UUOUOO
7 3 Benfica 9 4 5 2.1 0.8 5 4 0 19 7 19 OOOUUO
8 5 Sp Braga 8 3 5 1.8 0.9 4 2 2 14 7 14 UUOOUO
9 7 Famalicao 9 4 5 1.4 0.9 3 2 4 13 8 11 UUUOOO
10 8 Estoril 10 5 5 2.1 1.4 5 3 2 21 14 18 UOOUOO
11 10 Alverca 10 5 5 0.9 1.4 5 1 4 9 14 16 OUUOUO
12 11 Rio Ave 9 4 5 1.1 1.7 2 3 4 10 15 9 OOUUOU
13 18 AVS 10 5 5 0.7 1.9 0 3 7 7 19 3 OUOOUU
14 1 Porto 8 4 4 2.0 0.2 7 1 0 16 2 22 UUOUOU
15 17 Tondela 9 5 4 0.7 1.4 1 2 6 6 13 5 OUUOOU
16 14 Santa Clara 10 7 3 0.7 0.8 3 2 5 7 8 11 UOUUUU
17 16 Casa Pia 9 6 3 1.1 2.0 0 5 4 10 18 5 OOUUUO
18 4 Gil Vicente 9 7 2 1.3 0.8 5 2 2 12 7 17 UUUOUO
Away – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 8 Estoril 9 2 7 1.8 1.9 2 2 5 16 17 8 OOUOOO
2 16 Casa Pia 10 3 7 1.0 2.0 3 1 6 10 20 10 OOUOOO
3 18 AVS 9 2 7 0.8 3.1 0 2 7 7 28 2 OUOOUO
4 2 Sp Lisbon 10 4 6 2.2 0.7 8 2 0 22 7 26 OOUOUO
5 3 Benfica 9 3 6 2.1 0.4 7 2 0 19 4 23 UOOOOU
6 5 Sp Braga 10 4 6 1.8 1.1 4 4 2 18 11 16 OOOUOU
7 11 Rio Ave 9 3 6 1.3 1.8 2 5 2 12 16 11 UOUOOO
8 15 Arouca 9 3 6 1.0 2.6 2 2 5 9 23 8 OOOUOU
9 17 Tondela 9 3 6 0.7 1.9 2 1 6 6 17 7 OOOUOU
10 1 Porto 10 5 5 2.1 0.2 10 0 0 21 2 30 OUUOUU
11 6 Moreirense 10 5 5 1.2 1.5 3 2 5 12 15 11 UOOUUO
12 10 Alverca 8 3 5 1.2 1.8 2 1 5 10 14 7 OOUUUO
13 12 Estrela 8 4 4 1.2 1.9 2 3 3 10 15 9 UUOOOO
14 4 Gil Vicente 9 6 3 1.3 0.7 3 5 1 12 6 14 OOUUUO
15 13 Nacional 10 7 3 1.0 1.1 2 4 4 10 11 10 UUUOOO
16 14 Santa Clara 9 6 3 0.8 1.4 1 3 5 7 13 6 OUUUOU
17 9 Guimaraes 9 7 2 0.7 1.4 3 1 5 6 13 10 UUUUUO
18 7 Famalicao 9 8 1 0.9 0.7 4 3 2 8 6 15 UUOUUU

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Streak = last 6 matches, oldest left: O / U over or under the line, Y / N on the BTTS tab. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 4 Nov 2026, 06:11