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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England League One · ·Referee: G Eltringham

Burton 1–1 Derby

Full time · half time 0–1 · season 2022/2023

Home 3.30 fair 3.35
Draw ✓ 3.30 fair 3.86
Away 2.25 fair 2.26
Under 2.5 ✓ 1.85 fair 1.94
Over 2.5 2.00 fair 2.06

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Burton Derby
11 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 4
10 Corners 3
11 Fouls 9
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (238 league matches this season so far).
Result Derby to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.90
Expected goals 1.15 – 1.46
Home / Draw / Away
BurtonDrawDerby
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 12.3% 0–1 10.7% 1–2 9%

Statistics 2022/2023, before this match

Burton before this match, all matches
0.75points / match
1.30scored / match
2.05conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 20 played · 26:41
Derby before this match, all matches
1.58points / match
1.21scored / match
0.84conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 19 played · 23:16
Burton all matches all matches Derby

Per match

1.30 Goals scored 1.21
2.05 Goals conceded 0.84
3.35 Total goals 2.05
12.90 Shots 13.74
3.95 Shots on target 4.53
14.00 Shots faced 10.32
5.90 Corners 6.63
5.55 Corners against 4.63
11.20 Fouls 10.00
1.40 Yellow cards 1.89
0.50 1st-half goals scored 0.68
0.70 1st-half goals conceded 0.32

How often Full Time

15% Wins 42%
30% Draws 32%
55% Losses 26%
100% Over 0.5 goals 74%
85% Over 1.5 goals 58%
55% Over 2.5 goals 42%
35% Over 3.5 goals 16%
25% Over 4.5 goals 11%
20% Over 5.5 goals 5%
60% Both teams scored 42%
10% Clean sheets 42%
30% Failed to score 42%

How often Half Time

30% Wins 32%
45% Draws 53%
25% Losses 16%
60% Over 0.5 goals 53%
30% Over 1.5 goals 26%
20% Over 2.5 goals 5%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Burton all matches
Derby all matches
Burton before this match, at home
0.90points / match
1.00scored / match
1.80conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 10 played · 10:18
Derby before this match, away
1.30points / match
0.90scored / match
0.60conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 10 played · 9:6
Burton at home away Derby

Per match

1.00 Goals scored 0.90
1.80 Goals conceded 0.60
2.80 Total goals 1.50
13.60 Shots 14.20
4.20 Shots on target 4.60
11.90 Shots faced 10.40
6.90 Corners 6.70
5.50 Corners against 4.80
10.40 Fouls 9.50
1.30 Yellow cards 1.90
0.50 1st-half goals scored 0.40
0.70 1st-half goals conceded 0.30

How often Full Time

20% Wins 30%
30% Draws 40%
50% Losses 30%
100% Over 0.5 goals 70%
70% Over 1.5 goals 50%
40% Over 2.5 goals 20%
40% Over 3.5 goals 10%
20% Over 4.5 goals 0%
10% Over 5.5 goals 0%
40% Both teams scored 20%
10% Clean sheets 50%
50% Failed to score 60%

How often Half Time

30% Wins 20%
50% Draws 60%
20% Losses 20%
60% Over 0.5 goals 50%
20% Over 1.5 goals 20%
20% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Burton at home
Derby away

Last 10 matches before this match

Burton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
03.12.22 Milton Keynes Dons – Burton 1–1 (0–1) 2.253.303.25 2.05 1.80
19.11.22 Burton – Plymouth 2–2 (1–0) 2.803.602.37 1.80 2.00
12.11.22 Burton – Charlton 3–3 (2–2) 2.803.402.50 1.90 1.95
29.10.22 Sheffield Weds – Burton 4–2 (2–0) 1.504.206.50 1.75 2.05
25.10.22 Bolton – Burton 2–1 (0–0) 1.663.755.25 1.80 2.00
22.10.22 Burton – Cheltenham 1–0 (0–0) 2.103.403.60 1.95 1.90
15.10.22 Burton – Morecambe 1–1 (1–0) 1.703.755.00 1.80 2.00
08.10.22 Peterboro – Burton 1–1 (0–0) 1.504.336.50 1.61 2.25
04.10.22 Burton – Fleetwood Town 0–1 (0–1) 2.053.753.40 1.93 1.93
01.10.22 Burton – Forest Green 3–2 (1–0) 1.853.604.20 1.95 1.90

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
03.12.22 Derby – Sheffield Weds 0–0 (0–0) 3.003.402.30 2.05 1.75
18.11.22 Portsmouth – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 2.373.402.90 1.95 1.90
12.11.22 Milton Keynes Dons – Derby 1–3 (1–1) 3.803.502.00 1.98 1.88
01.11.22 Morecambe – Derby 1–1 (1–0) 4.503.401.80 1.98 1.88
29.10.22 Derby – Bristol Rvs 4–2 (4–2) 1.723.804.75 1.75 2.05
25.10.22 Derby – Exeter 0–0 (0–0) 1.903.604.00 1.88 1.98
21.10.22 Ipswich – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 1.753.754.50 2.05 1.75
15.10.22 Accrington – Derby 0–3 (0–2) 3.103.502.25 1.90 1.95
08.10.22 Derby – Port Vale 1–2 (1–0) 1.663.805.50 2.15 1.73
01.10.22 Cambridge – Derby 0–2 (0–1) 3.503.402.15 2.02 1.83

Burton at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
19.11.22 Burton – Plymouth 2–2 (1–0) 2.803.602.37 1.80 2.00
12.11.22 Burton – Charlton 3–3 (2–2) 2.803.402.50 1.90 1.95
22.10.22 Burton – Cheltenham 1–0 (0–0) 2.103.403.60 1.95 1.90
15.10.22 Burton – Morecambe 1–1 (1–0) 1.703.755.00 1.80 2.00
04.10.22 Burton – Fleetwood Town 0–1 (0–1) 2.053.753.40 1.93 1.93
01.10.22 Burton – Forest Green 3–2 (1–0) 1.853.604.20 1.95 1.90
13.09.22 Burton – Portsmouth 0–2 (0–0) 4.003.601.90 1.75 2.05
20.08.22 Burton – Port Vale 0–2 (0–0) 2.873.252.50 1.98 1.88
16.08.22 Burton – Ipswich 0–1 (0–0) 5.253.801.66 2.00 1.85
06.08.22 Burton – Bristol Rvs 0–4 (0–4) 2.703.252.70 2.07 1.72

Derby away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
18.11.22 Portsmouth – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 2.373.402.90 1.95 1.90
12.11.22 Milton Keynes Dons – Derby 1–3 (1–1) 3.803.502.00 1.98 1.88
01.11.22 Morecambe – Derby 1–1 (1–0) 4.503.401.80 1.98 1.88
21.10.22 Ipswich – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 1.753.754.50 2.05 1.75
15.10.22 Accrington – Derby 0–3 (0–2) 3.103.502.25 1.90 1.95
01.10.22 Cambridge – Derby 0–2 (0–1) 3.503.402.15 2.02 1.83
13.09.22 Lincoln – Derby 2–0 (1–0) 4.503.501.83 2.15 1.66
20.08.22 Fleetwood Town – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 3.603.302.10 2.07 1.72
16.08.22 Shrewsbury – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 3.303.202.25 2.35 1.57
06.08.22 Charlton – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 2.753.202.62 2.10 1.70

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

No head-to-head in last 5 seasons before this match

England League One table 2022/2023, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Ipswich 21 13 6 2 41 21 +20 45
2 Plymouth 20 13 4 3 39 24 +15 43
3 Sheffield Weds 20 12 5 3 35 16 +19 41
4 Barnsley 19 10 3 6 25 16 +9 33
5 Bolton 20 9 5 6 24 19 +5 32
6 Peterboro 21 10 1 10 36 27 +9 31
7 Derby 19 8 6 5 23 16 +7 30
8 Portsmouth 18 7 8 3 26 20 +6 29
9 Shrewsbury 21 8 5 8 22 23 -1 29
10 Port Vale 20 8 5 7 23 28 -5 29
11 Wycombe 20 8 4 8 27 24 +3 28
12 Exeter 20 7 5 8 32 30 +2 26
13 Lincoln 19 6 8 5 21 23 -2 26
14 Oxford 20 6 7 7 26 22 +4 25
15 Bristol Rvs 20 6 7 7 31 34 -3 25
16 Cheltenham 19 7 4 8 16 21 -5 25
17 Charlton 20 5 9 6 30 28 +2 24
18 Fleetwood Town 20 4 11 5 21 20 +1 23
19 Accrington 20 5 6 9 20 31 -11 21
20 Cambridge 20 6 2 12 19 32 -13 20
21 Forest Green 20 4 5 11 18 39 -21 17
22 Milton Keynes Dons 19 4 3 12 18 29 -11 15
23 Burton 20 3 6 11 26 41 -15 15
24 Morecambe 20 2 9 9 16 31 -15 15
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Plymouth 10 9 0 1 19 7 +12 27
2 Peterboro 10 7 1 2 22 6 +16 22
3 Ipswich 11 6 4 1 19 9 +10 22
4 Sheffield Weds 10 6 3 1 23 11 +12 21
5 Bolton 10 6 2 2 14 8 +6 20
6 Derby 9 5 2 2 14 10 +4 17
7 Shrewsbury 11 5 2 4 13 13 0 17
8 Charlton 10 4 4 2 20 13 +7 16
9 Barnsley 9 5 1 3 13 9 +4 16
10 Exeter 10 5 1 4 17 15 +2 16
11 Cheltenham 10 5 1 4 11 12 -1 16
12 Portsmouth 9 3 6 0 14 8 +6 15
13 Wycombe 10 4 3 3 16 11 +5 15
14 Port Vale 10 4 3 3 12 11 +1 15
15 Lincoln 9 2 7 0 11 8 +3 13
16 Bristol Rvs 10 3 4 3 15 17 -2 13
17 Cambridge 10 4 1 5 9 13 -4 13
18 Oxford 10 3 3 4 13 11 +2 12
19 Fleetwood Town 10 2 5 3 9 8 +1 11
20 Accrington 10 2 4 4 13 17 -4 10
21 Burton 10 2 3 5 10 18 -8 9
22 Forest Green 10 3 0 7 7 18 -11 9
23 Morecambe 10 1 5 4 7 15 -8 8
24 Milton Keynes Dons 10 1 2 7 8 18 -10 5
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Ipswich 10 7 2 1 22 12 +10 23
2 Sheffield Weds 10 6 2 2 12 5 +7 20
3 Barnsley 10 5 2 3 12 7 +5 17
4 Plymouth 10 4 4 2 20 17 +3 16
5 Portsmouth 9 4 2 3 12 12 0 14
6 Port Vale 10 4 2 4 11 17 -6 14
7 Derby 10 3 4 3 9 6 +3 13
8 Oxford 10 3 4 3 13 11 +2 13
9 Wycombe 10 4 1 5 11 13 -2 13
10 Lincoln 10 4 1 5 10 15 -5 13
11 Fleetwood Town 10 2 6 2 12 12 0 12
12 Bristol Rvs 10 3 3 4 16 17 -1 12
13 Bolton 10 3 3 4 10 11 -1 12
14 Shrewsbury 10 3 3 4 9 10 -1 12
15 Accrington 10 3 2 5 7 14 -7 11
16 Exeter 10 2 4 4 15 15 0 10
17 Milton Keynes Dons 9 3 1 5 10 11 -1 10
18 Cheltenham 9 2 3 4 5 9 -4 9
19 Peterboro 11 3 0 8 14 21 -7 9
20 Charlton 10 1 5 4 10 15 -5 8
21 Forest Green 10 1 5 4 11 21 -10 8
22 Morecambe 10 1 4 5 9 16 -7 7
23 Cambridge 10 2 1 7 10 19 -9 7
24 Burton 10 1 3 6 16 23 -7 6

Burton   Derby

Under / Over goals 2022/2023, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 6 Peterboro 21 7 14 1.7 1.3 10 1 10 36 27 31
2 2 Plymouth 20 7 13 1.9 1.2 13 4 3 39 24 43
3 1 Ipswich 21 9 12 2.0 1.0 13 6 2 41 21 45
4 15 Bristol Rvs 20 8 12 1.6 1.7 6 7 7 31 34 25
5 10 Port Vale 20 9 11 1.1 1.4 8 5 7 23 28 29
6 12 Exeter 20 9 11 1.6 1.5 7 5 8 32 30 26
7 21 Forest Green 20 9 11 0.9 1.9 4 5 11 18 39 17
8 23 Burton 20 9 11 1.3 2.0 3 6 11 26 41 15
9 11 Wycombe 20 10 10 1.4 1.2 8 4 8 27 24 28
10 20 Cambridge 20 10 10 0.9 1.6 6 2 12 19 32 20
11 19 Accrington 20 11 9 1.0 1.6 5 6 9 20 31 21
12 22 Milton Keynes Dons 19 10 9 0.9 1.5 4 3 12 18 29 15
13 24 Morecambe 20 11 9 0.8 1.6 2 9 9 16 31 15
14 3 Sheffield Weds 20 12 8 1.8 0.8 12 5 3 35 16 41
15 4 Barnsley 19 11 8 1.3 0.8 10 3 6 25 16 33
16 7 Derby 19 11 8 1.2 0.8 8 6 5 23 16 30
17 9 Shrewsbury 21 13 8 1.0 1.1 8 5 8 22 23 29
18 14 Oxford 20 12 8 1.3 1.1 6 7 7 26 22 25
19 17 Charlton 20 12 8 1.5 1.4 5 9 6 30 28 24
20 5 Bolton 20 13 7 1.2 0.9 9 5 6 24 19 32
21 8 Portsmouth 18 11 7 1.4 1.1 7 8 3 26 20 29
22 18 Fleetwood Town 20 13 7 1.1 1.0 4 11 5 21 20 23
23 16 Cheltenham 19 13 6 0.8 1.1 7 4 8 16 21 25
24 13 Lincoln 19 14 5 1.1 1.2 6 8 5 21 23 26
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 3 Sheffield Weds 10 4 6 2.3 1.1 6 3 1 23 11 21
2 6 Peterboro 10 4 6 2.2 0.6 7 1 2 22 6 22
3 7 Derby 9 3 6 1.6 1.1 5 2 2 14 10 17
4 12 Exeter 10 4 6 1.7 1.5 5 1 4 17 15 16
5 15 Bristol Rvs 10 4 6 1.5 1.7 3 4 3 15 17 13
6 21 Forest Green 10 4 6 0.7 1.8 3 0 7 7 18 9
7 1 Ipswich 11 6 5 1.7 0.8 6 4 1 19 9 22
8 2 Plymouth 10 5 5 1.9 0.7 9 0 1 19 7 27
9 9 Shrewsbury 11 6 5 1.2 1.2 5 2 4 13 13 17
10 10 Port Vale 10 5 5 1.2 1.1 4 3 3 12 11 15
11 11 Wycombe 10 5 5 1.6 1.1 4 3 3 16 11 15
12 14 Oxford 10 5 5 1.3 1.1 3 3 4 13 11 12
13 19 Accrington 10 5 5 1.3 1.7 2 4 4 13 17 10
14 4 Barnsley 9 5 4 1.4 1.0 5 1 3 13 9 16
15 5 Bolton 10 6 4 1.4 0.8 6 2 2 14 8 20
16 8 Portsmouth 9 5 4 1.6 0.9 3 6 0 14 8 15
17 16 Cheltenham 10 6 4 1.1 1.2 5 1 4 11 12 16
18 17 Charlton 10 6 4 2.0 1.3 4 4 2 20 13 16
19 22 Milton Keynes Dons 10 6 4 0.8 1.8 1 2 7 8 18 5
20 23 Burton 10 6 4 1.0 1.8 2 3 5 10 18 9
21 24 Morecambe 10 6 4 0.7 1.5 1 5 4 7 15 8
22 18 Fleetwood Town 10 7 3 0.9 0.8 2 5 3 9 8 11
23 20 Cambridge 10 7 3 0.9 1.3 4 1 5 9 13 13
24 13 Lincoln 9 7 2 1.2 0.9 2 7 0 11 8 13
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 2 Plymouth 10 2 8 2.0 1.7 4 4 2 20 17 16
2 6 Peterboro 11 3 8 1.3 1.9 3 0 8 14 21 9
3 1 Ipswich 10 3 7 2.2 1.2 7 2 1 22 12 23
4 20 Cambridge 10 3 7 1.0 1.9 2 1 7 10 19 7
5 23 Burton 10 3 7 1.6 2.3 1 3 6 16 23 6
6 10 Port Vale 10 4 6 1.1 1.7 4 2 4 11 17 14
7 15 Bristol Rvs 10 4 6 1.6 1.7 3 3 4 16 17 12
8 11 Wycombe 10 5 5 1.1 1.3 4 1 5 11 13 13
9 12 Exeter 10 5 5 1.5 1.5 2 4 4 15 15 10
10 21 Forest Green 10 5 5 1.1 2.1 1 5 4 11 21 8
11 22 Milton Keynes Dons 9 4 5 1.1 1.2 3 1 5 10 11 10
12 24 Morecambe 10 5 5 0.9 1.6 1 4 5 9 16 7
13 4 Barnsley 10 6 4 1.2 0.7 5 2 3 12 7 17
14 17 Charlton 10 6 4 1.0 1.5 1 5 4 10 15 8
15 18 Fleetwood Town 10 6 4 1.2 1.2 2 6 2 12 12 12
16 19 Accrington 10 6 4 0.7 1.4 3 2 5 7 14 11
17 5 Bolton 10 7 3 1.0 1.1 3 3 4 10 11 12
18 8 Portsmouth 9 6 3 1.3 1.3 4 2 3 12 12 14
19 9 Shrewsbury 10 7 3 0.9 1.0 3 3 4 9 10 12
20 13 Lincoln 10 7 3 1.0 1.5 4 1 5 10 15 13
21 14 Oxford 10 7 3 1.3 1.1 3 4 3 13 11 13
22 3 Sheffield Weds 10 8 2 1.2 0.5 6 2 2 12 5 20
23 7 Derby 10 8 2 0.9 0.6 3 4 3 9 6 13
24 16 Cheltenham 9 7 2 0.6 1.0 2 3 4 5 9 9

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51