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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England League One · ·Referee: B Toner

Derby 3–2 Burton

Full time · half time 1–0 · season 2023/2024

Home ✓ 1.30 fair 1.64
Draw 5.00 fair 4.45
Away 10.00 fair 5.99
Under 2.5 2.05 fair 1.99
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.75 fair 2.01

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Derby Burton
19 Shots 6
7 Shots on target 2
4 Corners 3
10 Fouls 12
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (310 league matches this season so far).
Result Derby to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score No fair 1.90
Expected goals 1.83 – 0.83
Home / Draw / Away
DerbyDrawBurton
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–0 12.8% 2–0 11.7% 1–1 10.7%

Statistics 2023/2024, before this match

Derby before this match, all matches
1.96points / match
1.88scored / match
0.96conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 25 played · 47:24
Burton before this match, all matches
1.08points / match
0.81scored / match
1.35conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 26 played · 21:35
Derby all matches all matches Burton

Per match

1.88 Goals scored 0.81
0.96 Goals conceded 1.35
2.84 Total goals 2.15
12.84 Shots 9.65
4.72 Shots on target 2.81
10.28 Shots faced 15.00
6.92 Corners 3.42
5.48 Corners against 5.54
11.08 Fouls 12.08
1.92 Yellow cards 2.31
0.88 1st-half goals scored 0.38
0.44 1st-half goals conceded 0.62

How often Full Time

60% Wins 27%
16% Draws 27%
24% Losses 46%
96% Over 0.5 goals 88%
80% Over 1.5 goals 69%
60% Over 2.5 goals 38%
32% Over 3.5 goals 12%
12% Over 4.5 goals 8%
4% Over 5.5 goals 0%
56% Both teams scored 42%
40% Clean sheets 23%
8% Failed to score 46%

How often Half Time

40% Wins 19%
44% Draws 46%
16% Losses 35%
72% Over 0.5 goals 65%
36% Over 1.5 goals 31%
16% Over 2.5 goals 4%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby all matches
Burton all matches
Derby before this match, at home
1.75points / match
1.75scored / match
0.92conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 12 played · 21:11
Burton before this match, away
0.69points / match
0.54scored / match
1.62conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 13 played · 7:21
Derby at home away Burton

Per match

1.75 Goals scored 0.54
0.92 Goals conceded 1.62
2.67 Total goals 2.15
13.58 Shots 7.69
4.33 Shots on target 2.15
9.17 Shots faced 16.85
6.92 Corners 2.85
4.83 Corners against 5.38
10.67 Fouls 11.62
2.25 Yellow cards 2.38
0.67 1st-half goals scored 0.15
0.33 1st-half goals conceded 0.77

How often Full Time

50% Wins 15%
25% Draws 23%
25% Losses 62%
92% Over 0.5 goals 85%
83% Over 1.5 goals 69%
58% Over 2.5 goals 38%
25% Over 3.5 goals 15%
8% Over 4.5 goals 8%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
58% Both teams scored 31%
42% Clean sheets 23%
8% Failed to score 62%

How often Half Time

33% Wins 8%
50% Draws 46%
17% Losses 46%
67% Over 0.5 goals 62%
25% Over 1.5 goals 31%
8% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby at home
Burton away

Last 10 matches before this match

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
06.01.24 Fleetwood Town – Derby 1–3 (0–2) 5.504.001.60 1.80 2.00
01.01.24 Derby – Peterboro 2–3 (1–1) 2.053.503.60 1.80 2.00
29.12.23 Oxford – Derby 2–3 (2–1) 3.253.402.20 2.05 1.80
26.12.23 Wigan – Derby 0–1 (0–1) 4.753.751.75 1.93 1.93
21.12.23 Derby – Lincoln 3–1 (1–1) 1.504.336.00 2.03 1.83
16.12.23 Derby – Wycombe 1–1 (0–0) 1.504.207.00 1.90 1.95
09.12.23 Leyton Orient – Derby 0–3 (0–1) 3.603.502.05 2.10 1.70
28.11.23 Port Vale – Derby 0–1 (0–0) 3.753.601.95 2.00 1.85
25.11.23 Derby – Bristol Rvs 2–1 (0–0) 1.604.005.25 1.75 2.05
11.11.23 Derby – Barnsley 3–0 (1–0) 1.803.604.50 1.80 2.05

Burton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
06.01.24 Burton – Wycombe 1–1 (0–0) 3.003.302.38 2.10 1.70
01.01.24 Bolton – Burton 1–0 (0–0) 1.334.759.50 1.70 2.10
29.12.23 Burton – Shrewsbury 1–0 (1–0) 2.153.003.80 2.30 1.60
26.12.23 Burton – Blackpool 1–0 (1–0) 4.004.001.80 1.93 1.93
23.12.23 Charlton – Burton 1–1 (1–0) 1.574.006.00 1.73 2.08
16.12.23 Oxford – Burton 3–0 (1–0) 1.603.806.00 1.98 1.88
09.12.23 Burton – Stevenage 1–2 (1–1) 3.103.402.25 2.03 1.83
28.11.23 Burton – Portsmouth 0–2 (0–1) 4.503.601.83 1.93 1.93
25.11.23 Peterboro – Burton 4–0 (2–0) 1.504.336.00 1.75 2.05
11.11.23 Northampton – Burton 2–0 (0–0) 2.153.403.40 2.08 1.73

Derby at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.01.24 Derby – Peterboro 2–3 (1–1) 2.053.503.60 1.80 2.00
21.12.23 Derby – Lincoln 3–1 (1–1) 1.504.336.00 2.03 1.83
16.12.23 Derby – Wycombe 1–1 (0–0) 1.504.207.00 1.90 1.95
25.11.23 Derby – Bristol Rvs 2–1 (0–0) 1.604.005.25 1.75 2.05
11.11.23 Derby – Barnsley 3–0 (1–0) 1.803.604.50 1.80 2.05
31.10.23 Derby – Northampton 4–0 (3–0) 1.553.806.50 1.85 2.00
24.10.23 Derby – Exeter 2–0 (1–0) 1.574.005.75 1.85 2.00
30.09.23 Derby – Cambridge 0–0 (0–0) 1.574.205.50 1.88 1.98
16.09.23 Derby – Portsmouth 1–1 (0–0) 2.203.403.30 1.95 1.90
19.08.23 Derby – Fleetwood Town 1–0 (1–0) 1.554.335.75 1.85 2.00

Burton away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.01.24 Bolton – Burton 1–0 (0–0) 1.334.759.50 1.70 2.10
23.12.23 Charlton – Burton 1–1 (1–0) 1.574.006.00 1.73 2.08
16.12.23 Oxford – Burton 3–0 (1–0) 1.603.806.00 1.98 1.88
25.11.23 Peterboro – Burton 4–0 (2–0) 1.504.336.00 1.75 2.05
11.11.23 Northampton – Burton 2–0 (0–0) 2.153.403.40 2.08 1.73
24.10.23 Carlisle – Burton 2–1 (0–1) 2.503.202.90 2.05 1.75
14.10.23 Lincoln – Burton 0–1 (0–0) 1.953.404.00 2.10 1.70
30.09.23 Reading – Burton 0–0 (0–0) 1.913.803.75 2.00 1.85
19.09.23 Port Vale – Burton 2–3 (1–1) 1.913.504.00 2.08 1.73
16.09.23 Barnsley – Burton 2–0 (1–0) 1.604.005.75 1.75 2.05

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Derby winsDrawsBurton wins
3matches
2.00goals / match
33%over 2.5
33%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
12.08.23E2 Burton – Derby 0–3 (0–1) 4.333.601.85 1.93 1.93
22.04.23E2 Derby – Burton 1–0 (0–0) 1.504.207.00 1.70 2.10
10.12.22E2 Burton – Derby 1–1 (0–1) 3.303.302.25 2.00 1.85

England League One table 2023/2024, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Portsmouth 27 15 8 4 42 25 +17 53
2 Peterboro 26 15 7 4 52 28 +24 52
3 Bolton 24 16 3 5 45 24 +21 51
4 Derby 25 15 4 6 47 24 +23 49
5 Oxford 26 15 4 7 45 30 +15 49
6 Barnsley 25 13 7 5 48 29 +19 46
7 Stevenage 26 13 7 6 38 25 +13 46
8 Blackpool 27 12 6 9 44 32 +12 42
9 Northampton 26 11 4 11 32 34 -2 37
10 Wigan 26 10 6 10 36 31 +5 36
11 Leyton Orient 26 9 8 9 28 31 -3 35
12 Bristol Rvs 25 9 7 9 35 35 0 34
13 Lincoln 27 8 9 10 30 30 0 33
14 Charlton 26 7 9 10 40 39 +1 30
15 Wycombe 26 7 9 10 30 35 -5 30
16 Port Vale 25 8 6 11 28 38 -10 30
17 Cambridge 25 8 6 11 23 33 -10 30
18 Shrewsbury 27 9 3 15 17 37 -20 30
19 Burton 26 7 7 12 21 35 -14 28
20 Reading 25 7 6 12 34 41 -7 27
21 Exeter 26 7 5 14 18 39 -21 26
22 Cheltenham 25 6 5 14 19 34 -15 23
23 Carlisle 27 4 8 15 22 41 -19 20
24 Fleetwood Town 26 4 6 16 23 47 -24 18
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Blackpool 15 10 2 3 32 14 +18 32
2 Bolton 13 9 1 3 28 17 +11 28
3 Portsmouth 14 8 4 2 19 15 +4 28
4 Peterboro 12 7 4 1 29 11 +18 25
5 Oxford 12 7 3 2 22 11 +11 24
6 Northampton 14 7 3 4 20 15 +5 24
7 Cambridge 14 7 3 4 15 15 0 24
8 Wigan 12 7 1 4 18 11 +7 22
9 Shrewsbury 14 7 1 6 14 16 -2 22
10 Derby 12 6 3 3 21 11 +10 21
11 Barnsley 13 6 3 4 25 16 +9 21
12 Stevenage 12 5 6 1 17 10 +7 21
13 Charlton 14 6 3 5 26 20 +6 21
14 Reading 13 6 3 4 21 15 +6 21
15 Bristol Rvs 11 5 5 1 19 11 +8 20
16 Burton 13 5 4 4 14 14 0 19
17 Lincoln 12 4 4 4 17 12 +5 16
18 Port Vale 12 5 1 6 17 16 +1 16
19 Wycombe 13 4 4 5 15 17 -2 16
20 Exeter 13 4 4 5 8 11 -3 16
21 Cheltenham 13 4 3 6 12 18 -6 15
22 Leyton Orient 12 4 3 5 10 17 -7 15
23 Carlisle 14 3 5 6 13 18 -5 14
24 Fleetwood Town 13 2 2 9 10 24 -14 8
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Derby 13 9 1 3 26 13 +13 28
2 Peterboro 14 8 3 3 23 17 +6 27
3 Portsmouth 13 7 4 2 23 10 +13 25
4 Barnsley 12 7 4 1 23 13 +10 25
5 Stevenage 14 8 1 5 21 15 +6 25
6 Oxford 14 8 1 5 23 19 +4 25
7 Bolton 11 7 2 2 17 7 +10 23
8 Leyton Orient 14 5 5 4 18 14 +4 20
9 Lincoln 15 4 5 6 13 18 -5 17
10 Wigan 14 3 5 6 18 20 -2 14
11 Wycombe 13 3 5 5 15 18 -3 14
12 Bristol Rvs 14 4 2 8 16 24 -8 14
13 Port Vale 13 3 5 5 11 22 -11 14
14 Northampton 12 4 1 7 12 19 -7 13
15 Blackpool 12 2 4 6 12 18 -6 10
16 Fleetwood Town 13 2 4 7 13 23 -10 10
17 Exeter 13 3 1 9 10 28 -18 10
18 Charlton 12 1 6 5 14 19 -5 9
19 Burton 13 2 3 8 7 21 -14 9
20 Cheltenham 12 2 2 8 7 16 -9 8
21 Shrewsbury 13 2 2 9 3 21 -18 8
22 Cambridge 11 1 3 7 8 18 -10 6
23 Reading 12 1 3 8 13 26 -13 6
24 Carlisle 13 1 3 9 9 23 -14 6

Derby   Burton

Under / Over goals 2023/2024, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Oxford 26 8 18 1.7 1.2 15 4 7 45 30 49
2 14 Charlton 26 9 17 1.5 1.5 7 9 10 40 39 30
3 2 Peterboro 26 10 16 2.0 1.1 15 7 4 52 28 52
4 8 Blackpool 27 11 16 1.6 1.2 12 6 9 44 32 42
5 9 Northampton 26 10 16 1.2 1.3 11 4 11 32 34 37
6 1 Portsmouth 27 12 15 1.6 0.9 15 8 4 42 25 53
7 4 Derby 25 10 15 1.9 1.0 15 4 6 47 24 49
8 6 Barnsley 25 10 15 1.9 1.2 13 7 5 48 29 46
9 20 Reading 25 10 15 1.4 1.6 7 6 12 34 41 27
10 7 Stevenage 26 12 14 1.5 1.0 13 7 6 38 25 46
11 12 Bristol Rvs 25 11 14 1.4 1.4 9 7 9 35 35 34
12 24 Fleetwood Town 26 12 14 0.9 1.8 4 6 16 23 47 18
13 3 Bolton 24 11 13 1.9 1.0 16 3 5 45 24 51
14 10 Wigan 26 14 12 1.4 1.2 10 6 10 36 31 36
15 15 Wycombe 26 14 12 1.2 1.3 7 9 10 30 35 30
16 16 Port Vale 25 13 12 1.1 1.5 8 6 11 28 38 30
17 11 Leyton Orient 26 15 11 1.1 1.2 9 8 9 28 31 35
18 17 Cambridge 25 14 11 0.9 1.3 8 6 11 23 33 30
19 13 Lincoln 27 17 10 1.1 1.1 8 9 10 30 30 33
20 19 Burton 26 16 10 0.8 1.3 7 7 12 21 35 28
21 18 Shrewsbury 27 18 9 0.6 1.4 9 3 15 17 37 30
22 21 Exeter 26 17 9 0.7 1.5 7 5 14 18 39 26
23 22 Cheltenham 25 16 9 0.8 1.4 6 5 14 19 34 23
24 23 Carlisle 27 18 9 0.8 1.5 4 8 15 22 41 20
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 14 Charlton 14 3 11 1.9 1.4 6 3 5 26 20 21
2 3 Bolton 13 3 10 2.2 1.3 9 1 3 28 17 28
3 8 Blackpool 15 5 10 2.1 0.9 10 2 3 32 14 32
4 5 Oxford 12 3 9 1.8 0.9 7 3 2 22 11 24
5 2 Peterboro 12 4 8 2.4 0.9 7 4 1 29 11 25
6 6 Barnsley 13 5 8 1.9 1.2 6 3 4 25 16 21
7 9 Northampton 14 6 8 1.4 1.1 7 3 4 20 15 24
8 1 Portsmouth 14 7 7 1.4 1.1 8 4 2 19 15 28
9 4 Derby 12 5 7 1.8 0.9 6 3 3 21 11 21
10 10 Wigan 12 6 6 1.5 0.9 7 1 4 18 11 22
11 12 Bristol Rvs 11 5 6 1.7 1.0 5 5 1 19 11 20
12 16 Port Vale 12 6 6 1.4 1.3 5 1 6 17 16 16
13 18 Shrewsbury 14 8 6 1.0 1.1 7 1 6 14 16 22
14 20 Reading 13 7 6 1.6 1.2 6 3 4 21 15 21
15 24 Fleetwood Town 13 7 6 0.8 1.8 2 2 9 10 24 8
16 7 Stevenage 12 7 5 1.4 0.8 5 6 1 17 10 21
17 11 Leyton Orient 12 7 5 0.8 1.4 4 3 5 10 17 15
18 13 Lincoln 12 7 5 1.4 1.0 4 4 4 17 12 16
19 15 Wycombe 13 8 5 1.2 1.3 4 4 5 15 17 16
20 17 Cambridge 14 9 5 1.1 1.1 7 3 4 15 15 24
21 19 Burton 13 8 5 1.1 1.1 5 4 4 14 14 19
22 22 Cheltenham 13 8 5 0.9 1.4 4 3 6 12 18 15
23 23 Carlisle 14 10 4 0.9 1.3 3 5 6 13 18 14
24 21 Exeter 13 10 3 0.6 0.8 4 4 5 8 11 16
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Oxford 14 5 9 1.6 1.4 8 1 5 23 19 25
2 7 Stevenage 14 5 9 1.5 1.1 8 1 5 21 15 25
3 20 Reading 12 3 9 1.1 2.2 1 3 8 13 26 6
4 1 Portsmouth 13 5 8 1.8 0.8 7 4 2 23 10 25
5 2 Peterboro 14 6 8 1.6 1.2 8 3 3 23 17 27
6 4 Derby 13 5 8 2.0 1.0 9 1 3 26 13 28
7 9 Northampton 12 4 8 1.0 1.6 4 1 7 12 19 13
8 12 Bristol Rvs 14 6 8 1.1 1.7 4 2 8 16 24 14
9 24 Fleetwood Town 13 5 8 1.0 1.8 2 4 7 13 23 10
10 6 Barnsley 12 5 7 1.9 1.1 7 4 1 23 13 25
11 15 Wycombe 13 6 7 1.2 1.4 3 5 5 15 18 14
12 8 Blackpool 12 6 6 1.0 1.5 2 4 6 12 18 10
13 10 Wigan 14 8 6 1.3 1.4 3 5 6 18 20 14
14 11 Leyton Orient 14 8 6 1.3 1.0 5 5 4 18 14 20
15 14 Charlton 12 6 6 1.2 1.6 1 6 5 14 19 9
16 16 Port Vale 13 7 6 0.8 1.7 3 5 5 11 22 14
17 17 Cambridge 11 5 6 0.7 1.6 1 3 7 8 18 6
18 21 Exeter 13 7 6 0.8 2.2 3 1 9 10 28 10
19 13 Lincoln 15 10 5 0.9 1.2 4 5 6 13 18 17
20 19 Burton 13 8 5 0.5 1.6 2 3 8 7 21 9
21 23 Carlisle 13 8 5 0.7 1.8 1 3 9 9 23 6
22 22 Cheltenham 12 8 4 0.6 1.3 2 2 8 7 16 8
23 3 Bolton 11 8 3 1.5 0.6 7 2 2 17 7 23
24 18 Shrewsbury 13 10 3 0.2 1.6 2 2 9 3 21 8

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51