Arouca 3–0 Nacional – Portugal Primeira Liga, 21 Feb 2026

Match facts

Arouca Nacional

10 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 5

4 Corners 1

13 Fouls 13

5 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 1

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✓ Goals correct ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (199 league matches this season so far).

Result Nacional to win

Goals Over 2.5

Both teams score Yes fair 1.65

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.57

Home / Draw / Away

35% 24% 41%

AroucaDrawNacional

Under / Over 2.5 goals

42% 58%

Under 2.5Over 2.5

Both teams to score

39% 61%

NoYes

Total goals in the match

5% 0

15% 1

22% 2

22% 3

17% 4

19% 5+

Most likely scores

1–1 11.1% 1–2 8.7% 2–1 8.1%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Arouca before this match, all matches

1.05points / match

1.27scored / match

2.23conceded / match

6 5 11

WonDrawnLost 22 played · 28:49

Nacional before this match, all matches

0.95points / match

1.23scored / match

1.41conceded / match

5 6 11

WonDrawnLost 22 played · 27:31

Arouca all matches all matches Nacional

Per match

1.27 Goals scored 1.23

2.23 Goals conceded 1.41

3.50 Total goals 2.64

10.27 Shots 12.00

3.41 Shots on target 3.91

13.41 Shots faced 14.73

3.82 Corners 4.27

5.18 Corners against 6.32

13.73 Fouls 14.95

2.73 Yellow cards 2.91

0.59 1st-half goals scored 0.50

1.23 1st-half goals conceded 0.50

How often Full Time

27% Wins 23%

23% Draws 27%

50% Losses 50%

95% Over 0.5 goals 95%

86% Over 1.5 goals 73%

68% Over 2.5 goals 50%

55% Over 3.5 goals 27%

27% Over 4.5 goals 14%

14% Over 5.5 goals 5%

55% Both teams scored 59%

18% Clean sheets 18%

32% Failed to score 27%

How often Half Time

23% Wins 27%

27% Draws 50%

50% Losses 23%

82% Over 0.5 goals 64%

50% Over 1.5 goals 27%

36% Over 2.5 goals 5%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Arouca all matches

1

3

L

1

W

D

2

D

1

3

L

1

W

1

2

L

3

W

3

2

W

2

3

L

Nacional all matches

1

L

3

1

W

2

D

1

2

L

3

D

1

2

L

4

W

1

2

L

D

1

L

Arouca before this match, at home

1.09points / match

1.27scored / match

2.09conceded / match

3 3 5

WonDrawnLost 11 played · 14:23

Nacional before this match, away

0.91points / match

1.00scored / match

1.18conceded / match

2 4 5

WonDrawnLost 11 played · 11:13

Arouca at home away Nacional

Per match

1.27 Goals scored 1.00

2.09 Goals conceded 1.18

3.36 Total goals 2.18

10.27 Shots 12.27

3.82 Shots on target 3.91

13.09 Shots faced 13.00

4.18 Corners 3.64

6.00 Corners against 5.27

14.45 Fouls 15.64

3.09 Yellow cards 2.64

0.45 1st-half goals scored 0.55

1.00 1st-half goals conceded 0.45

How often Full Time

27% Wins 18%

27% Draws 36%

45% Losses 45%

100% Over 0.5 goals 100%

91% Over 1.5 goals 73%

64% Over 2.5 goals 36%

55% Over 3.5 goals 9%

18% Over 4.5 goals 0%

9% Over 5.5 goals 0%

55% Both teams scored 64%

9% Clean sheets 18%

36% Failed to score 18%

How often Half Time

27% Wins 36%

18% Draws 36%

55% Losses 27%

82% Over 0.5 goals 73%

36% Over 1.5 goals 27%

27% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Arouca at home

3

D

2

L

4

L

1

D

2

L

4

L

1

W

2

D

1

2

L

3

2

W

Nacional away

2

W

1

L

1

W

1

D

1

D

1

L

2

D

1

2

L

1

2

L

1

2

L

Last 10 matches before this match

Arouca all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
14.02.26	Casa Pia – Arouca	3–2 (3–2)	2.65	3.20	2.55	2.20	1.65
07.02.26	Arouca – Guimaraes	3–2 (1–2)	2.75	3.30	2.40	2.10	1.70
31.01.26	Rio Ave – Arouca	0–3 (0–1)	2.50	3.25	2.70	2.05	1.80
24.01.26	Arouca – Sp Lisbon	1–2 (0–1)	12.00	5.50	1.22	1.57	2.35
17.01.26	AVS – Arouca	0–1 (0–1)	3.00	3.10	2.45	2.25	1.62
03.01.26	Tondela – Arouca	3–1 (2–1)	2.05	3.30	3.50	2.05	1.75
28.12.25	Arouca – Gil Vicente	2–2 (2–1)	3.90	3.20	1.96	2.20	1.65
21.12.25	Santa Clara – Arouca	0–0 (0–0)	1.79	3.25	4.75	2.40	1.53
14.12.25	Arouca – Alverca	1–0 (0–0)	2.70	3.20	2.55	2.20	1.65
07.12.25	Estrela – Arouca	3–1 (2–0)	2.10	3.20	3.50	2.10	1.70

Nacional all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
15.02.26	Nacional – Porto	0–1 (0–0)	9.50	4.50	1.30	1.75	2.05
08.02.26	Nacional – Casa Pia	0–0 (0–0)	2.05	3.10	3.75	2.10	1.70
01.02.26	Sp Lisbon – Nacional	2–1 (0–0)	1.10	8.00	19.00	1.36	3.10
25.01.26	Nacional – Rio Ave	4–0 (1–0)	2.15	3.30	3.30	1.95	1.85
17.01.26	Gil Vicente – Nacional	2–1 (1–1)	1.61	3.60	5.50	2.00	1.80
11.01.26	Nacional – Santa Clara	3–3 (2–2)	2.70	3.00	2.70	2.50	1.50
02.01.26	Guimaraes – Nacional	2–1 (0–0)	1.81	3.30	4.50	2.15	1.67
21.12.25	AVS – Nacional	2–2 (2–0)	3.20	3.30	2.20	2.15	1.67
15.12.25	Nacional – Tondela	3–1 (0–0)	2.30	3.05	3.05	2.10	1.70
07.12.25	Alverca – Nacional	1–0 (0–0)	2.05	3.20	3.60	2.20	1.65

Arouca at home

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
07.02.26	Arouca – Guimaraes	3–2 (1–2)	2.75	3.30	2.40	2.10	1.70
24.01.26	Arouca – Sp Lisbon	1–2 (0–1)	12.00	5.50	1.22	1.57	2.35
28.12.25	Arouca – Gil Vicente	2–2 (2–1)	3.90	3.20	1.96	2.20	1.65
14.12.25	Arouca – Alverca	1–0 (0–0)	2.70	3.20	2.55	2.20	1.65
01.12.25	Arouca – Sp Braga	0–4 (0–3)	6.50	3.90	1.49	1.80	2.00
02.11.25	Arouca – Moreirense	0–2 (0–2)	2.57	3.20	2.65	2.10	1.70
05.10.25	Arouca – Famalicao	1–1 (0–0)	3.60	3.25	2.01	2.10	1.70
29.09.25	Arouca – Porto	0–4 (0–1)	7.50	4.75	1.35	1.75	2.05
14.09.25	Arouca – Casa Pia	0–2 (0–1)	1.91	3.30	4.00	2.15	1.67
23.08.25	Arouca – Rio Ave	3–3 (1–0)	2.00	3.25	3.90	2.05	1.80

Nacional away

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
01.02.26	Sp Lisbon – Nacional	2–1 (0–0)	1.10	8.00	19.00	1.36	3.10
17.01.26	Gil Vicente – Nacional	2–1 (1–1)	1.61	3.60	5.50	2.00	1.80
02.01.26	Guimaraes – Nacional	2–1 (0–0)	1.81	3.30	4.50	2.15	1.67
21.12.25	AVS – Nacional	2–2 (2–0)	3.20	3.30	2.20	2.15	1.67
07.12.25	Alverca – Nacional	1–0 (0–0)	2.05	3.20	3.60	2.20	1.65
09.11.25	Estrela – Nacional	1–1 (0–1)	2.70	3.20	2.50	2.15	1.67
26.10.25	Estoril – Nacional	1–1 (0–1)	2.15	3.25	3.30	2.05	1.75
28.09.25	Sp Braga – Nacional	0–1 (0–1)	1.39	4.33	7.50	1.83	2.03
13.09.25	Porto – Nacional	1–0 (1–0)	1.15	6.50	17.00	1.57	2.35
30.08.25	Casa Pia – Nacional	0–2 (0–2)	2.15	3.20	3.40	2.25	1.62

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

3

Arouca winsDrawsNacional wins

3matches

2.33goals / match

67%over 2.5

67%both scored

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
20.09.25P1	Nacional – Arouca	1–2 (0–0)	2.45	3.10	2.85	2.08	1.73
01.02.25P1	Nacional – Arouca	1–2 (1–2)	2.50	3.20	2.88	2.15	1.67
25.08.24P1	Arouca – Nacional	1–0 (1–0)	2.05	3.40	3.50	1.93	1.93

Portugal Primeira Liga table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Porto	22	19	2	1	43	7	+36	59
2	Sp Lisbon	22	17	4	1	56	12	+44	55
3	Benfica	22	15	7	0	46	13	+33	52
4	Gil Vicente	22	11	7	4	33	18	+15	40
5	Sp Braga	22	11	6	5	45	20	+25	39
6	Moreirense	22	10	3	9	29	30	-1	33
7	Famalicao	22	9	5	8	27	21	+6	32
8	Guimaraes	22	9	4	9	25	31	-6	31
9	Estoril	22	8	6	8	43	38	+5	30
10	Alverca	22	7	4	11	22	37	-15	25
11	Estrela	23	5	8	10	26	41	-15	23
12	Arouca	22	6	5	11	28	49	-21	23
13	Casa Pia	22	5	7	10	25	41	-16	22
14	Nacional	22	5	6	11	27	31	-4	21
15	Rio Ave	22	4	8	10	23	43	-20	20
16	Tondela	23	4	6	13	17	36	-19	18
17	Santa Clara	22	4	5	13	17	28	-11	17
18	AVS	22	1	5	16	18	54	-36	8

Home – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	33	4	+29	28
2	Porto	10	8	2	0	20	3	+17	26
3	Benfica	11	7	4	0	25	8	+17	25
4	Gil Vicente	11	7	2	2	19	8	+11	23
5	Guimaraes	12	6	3	3	17	15	+2	21
6	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	22	7	+15	20
7	Estoril	11	5	4	2	23	16	+7	19
8	Moreirense	10	6	1	3	15	13	+2	19
9	Famalicao	11	5	2	4	19	9	+10	17
10	Alverca	11	5	2	4	10	15	-5	17
11	Estrela	12	3	4	5	14	19	-5	13
12	Arouca	11	3	3	5	14	23	-9	12
13	Nacional	11	3	2	6	16	18	-2	11
14	Santa Clara	12	3	2	7	10	14	-4	11
15	Casa Pia	11	2	5	4	15	21	-6	11
16	Rio Ave	11	2	3	6	11	20	-9	9
17	Tondela	11	1	4	6	7	14	-7	7
18	AVS	12	1	3	8	10	23	-13	6

Away – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Porto	12	11	0	1	23	4	+19	33
2	Benfica	11	8	3	0	21	5	+16	27
3	Sp Lisbon	11	8	3	0	23	8	+15	27
4	Sp Braga	12	5	4	3	23	13	+10	19
5	Gil Vicente	11	4	5	2	14	10	+4	17
6	Famalicao	11	4	3	4	8	12	-4	15
7	Moreirense	12	4	2	6	14	17	-3	14
8	Estoril	11	3	2	6	20	22	-2	11
9	Casa Pia	11	3	2	6	10	20	-10	11
10	Rio Ave	11	2	5	4	12	23	-11	11
11	Arouca	11	3	2	6	14	26	-12	11
12	Tondela	12	3	2	7	10	22	-12	11
13	Nacional	11	2	4	5	11	13	-2	10
14	Guimaraes	10	3	1	6	8	16	-8	10
15	Estrela	11	2	4	5	12	22	-10	10
16	Alverca	11	2	2	7	12	22	-10	8
17	Santa Clara	10	1	3	6	7	14	-7	6
18	AVS	10	0	2	8	8	31	-23	2

Arouca Nacional

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1	5	Sp Braga	22	7	15	2.0	0.9	11	6	5	45	20	39
2	9	Estoril	22	7	15	2.0	1.7	8	6	8	43	38	30
3	12	Arouca	22	7	15	1.3	2.2	6	5	11	28	49	23
4	15	Rio Ave	22	7	15	1.0	2.0	4	8	10	23	43	20
5	18	AVS	22	7	15	0.8	2.5	1	5	16	18	54	8
6	2	Sp Lisbon	22	8	14	2.5	0.5	17	4	1	56	12	55
7	3	Benfica	22	8	14	2.1	0.6	15	7	0	46	13	52
8	6	Moreirense	22	9	13	1.3	1.4	10	3	9	29	30	33
9	10	Alverca	22	10	12	1.0	1.7	7	4	11	22	37	25
10	11	Estrela	23	11	12	1.1	1.8	5	8	10	26	41	23
11	13	Casa Pia	22	10	12	1.1	1.9	5	7	10	25	41	22
12	16	Tondela	23	11	12	0.7	1.6	4	6	13	17	36	18
13	1	Porto	22	11	11	2.0	0.3	19	2	1	43	7	59
14	14	Nacional	22	11	11	1.2	1.4	5	6	11	27	31	21
15	8	Guimaraes	22	12	10	1.1	1.4	9	4	9	25	31	31
16	4	Gil Vicente	22	13	9	1.5	0.8	11	7	4	33	18	40
17	7	Famalicao	22	13	9	1.2	1.0	9	5	8	27	21	32
18	17	Santa Clara	22	14	8	0.8	1.3	4	5	13	17	28	17

Home – Under/Over goals
#
1	2	Sp Lisbon	11	3	8	3.0	0.4	9	1	1	33	4	28
2	3	Benfica	11	4	7	2.3	0.7	7	4	0	25	8	25
3	5	Sp Braga	10	3	7	2.2	0.7	6	2	2	22	7	20
4	6	Moreirense	10	3	7	1.5	1.3	6	1	3	15	13	19
5	7	Famalicao	11	4	7	1.7	0.8	5	2	4	19	9	17
6	8	Guimaraes	12	5	7	1.4	1.2	6	3	3	17	15	21
7	12	Arouca	11	4	7	1.3	2.1	3	3	5	14	23	12
8	14	Nacional	11	4	7	1.5	1.6	3	2	6	16	18	11
9	15	Rio Ave	11	4	7	1.0	1.8	2	3	6	11	20	9
10	18	AVS	12	5	7	0.8	1.9	1	3	8	10	23	6
11	9	Estoril	11	5	6	2.1	1.5	5	4	2	23	16	19
12	11	Estrela	12	6	6	1.2	1.6	3	4	5	14	19	13
13	1	Porto	10	5	5	2.0	0.3	8	2	0	20	3	26
14	10	Alverca	11	6	5	0.9	1.4	5	2	4	10	15	17
15	13	Casa Pia	11	6	5	1.4	1.9	2	5	4	15	21	11
16	17	Santa Clara	12	7	5	0.8	1.2	3	2	7	10	14	11
17	4	Gil Vicente	11	7	4	1.7	0.7	7	2	2	19	8	23
18	16	Tondela	11	7	4	0.6	1.3	1	4	6	7	14	7

Away – Under/Over goals
#
1	9	Estoril	11	2	9	1.8	2.0	3	2	6	20	22	11
2	5	Sp Braga	12	4	8	1.9	1.1	5	4	3	23	13	19
3	12	Arouca	11	3	8	1.3	2.4	3	2	6	14	26	11
4	15	Rio Ave	11	3	8	1.1	2.1	2	5	4	12	23	11
5	16	Tondela	12	4	8	0.8	1.8	3	2	7	10	22	11
6	18	AVS	10	2	8	0.8	3.1	0	2	8	8	31	2
7	3	Benfica	11	4	7	1.9	0.5	8	3	0	21	5	27
8	10	Alverca	11	4	7	1.1	2.0	2	2	7	12	22	8
9	13	Casa Pia	11	4	7	0.9	1.8	3	2	6	10	20	11
10	1	Porto	12	6	6	1.9	0.3	11	0	1	23	4	33
11	2	Sp Lisbon	11	5	6	2.1	0.7	8	3	0	23	8	27
12	6	Moreirense	12	6	6	1.2	1.4	4	2	6	14	17	14
13	11	Estrela	11	5	6	1.1	2.0	2	4	5	12	22	10
14	4	Gil Vicente	11	6	5	1.3	0.9	4	5	2	14	10	17
15	14	Nacional	11	7	4	1.0	1.2	2	4	5	11	13	10
16	8	Guimaraes	10	7	3	0.8	1.6	3	1	6	8	16	10
17	17	Santa Clara	10	7	3	0.7	1.4	1	3	6	7	14	6
18	7	Famalicao	11	9	2	0.7	1.1	4	3	4	8	12	15

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.